Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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638 views

(C++) Monte Carlo pricer for SABR model to test Hagan / Paulot formulas

I'm trying to test the so-called Hagan formula (p.6 of this paper) and the Paulot formula, order 1 only (eq. (43) p.19 of this paper. For this, i'm trying to use both Euler and Milstein scheme ...
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1answer
135 views

Likelihood ratio and pathwise sensitivity method for coupled SDEs

I have two coupled SDEs \begin{align*} dS_t=rS_tdt+V_tdW_t^{(1)},\\ dV_t=aV_tdt+b(V_t)dW_t^{(2)},\\ \end{align*} where $W_t^{(1)}$ and $W_t^{(2)}$ are independent Brownian motions, initial input data ...
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86 views

How to price lookback american option when its payment is distributed during its life

I would like to price a floating strike american lookback with a particular feature: I don't want to charge upfront the client, rather I would like to insert a "running fee", some sort of a dividend. ...
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59 views

Are radial basis functions popular in least squares monte carlo option pricing?

In a Longstaff-Schwarz setting option on several underlyings can be priced using least squares monte carlo. Using suitable set of basis functions, continuation values can be approximated using ...
3
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63 views

Why were Laguerre polynomials a good choice of basis functions for American Monte Carlo?

I am implementing LSMC to price American options based on a custom model. I now need to make a choice of basis functions, so I am looking for the theoretical justification for using Laguerre ...
3
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1answer
237 views

Simulation scheme for SABR beside the standard Euler discretization

QUESTION: Beside Euler Scheme, is there another more robust (and preferably easy to implement) way to simulate asset path with SABR dynamics? Simulation that will withstand even for high volatilities....
3
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201 views

How can I estimate the time-varying θ term in the Hull-White one factor model?

I am trying to simulate the prices of bond indexes (e.g. Barclays Aggregate, IBOXX sovereign, IBOXX corporates) using Monte Carlo assuming that they follow the SDE given by the Hull-White model (one-...
3
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2k views

Jamshidian's trick for Swaptions

Following Brigo$^1$ p.77, we can decompose the price of a swaption as a sum of Zero-Coupon bond options (Jamshidian's Trick). To do so, the authors suggest to find $r^*$ the value of the spot rate at ...
3
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93 views

Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
3
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0answers
946 views

Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (formula dont match Monte Carlo Simulation)

I posted this question before on MSE I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all ...
3
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0answers
119 views

Optimizing stochastic functions numerically

Is there an efficient and commonly used optimization method for "more complex" investment strategies. For instance, say you have a function $f(X_1,...,X_n,c,v)$ where the $X_k$'s are your random ...
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4k views

Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
2
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0answers
64 views

GARCH Option Pricing in R

I am trying to code a GARCH option pricing model in R. I am still new to R so this does seem a bit complicated. I want to estimate an asymmetric GARCH model as well as an EGARCH model. This I have ...
2
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0answers
64 views

What are the most difficult/computationally expensive/infeasible derivatives to price?

I'm not sure if this question has a concrete answer or if it's more of a fun game, but I suppose the question that does have a concrete answer is what's the most difficult instrument to value that has ...
2
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66 views

Beta estimates of Regressions on AR(1) Process

I am currently working through the paper The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability [1] and I got stuck in reproducing the empirical results in Section 1.4. It is my understanding that time series of ...
2
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0answers
76 views

Stratified sampling in asian options

I am using the procedure of stratified sampling for variance reduction. In the Glasserman book the algorithm for stratified the terminal value of the Brownian motion is given for european options. For ...
2
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0answers
86 views

Can variance change over time?

I'm working on a toy project that involves fantasy basketball, I know this is the quantitative finance stackexchange, but it seemed like the best place to ask this question. My goal is to make ...
2
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0answers
83 views

When to remove a trading strategy?

Every strategy has a limited lifespan. How do you decide when to stop a particular strategy as it has lost its edge? Few of things that can be thought is strategy crossing its maximum drawdown, net ...
2
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0answers
931 views

Longstaff-Schwartz, special american option simulation using Python (numpy package)

I got a put option, which can be exercised 3 times, all at different times, which are each month of a year $$t_1 = \frac{1}{12}, t_2 = \frac{2}{12} ... t_{12} = 1$$. Respectively, if exercised at $$...
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230 views

Monte Carlo VAR with differente asset classes

I have found a very useful post regarding the use of Monte Carlo simulaton to obtain portfolio Value at risk, based on Cholesky decomposition, random variates, etc. This post I'm talking about is: Is ...
2
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398 views

Simulating compound Poisson jump-diffusion process with time-changed jump frequency

I want to simulate a jump-diffusion process with compound Poisson jumps and a deterministic jump frequency function $\lambda(t)$. The function should follow the following stochastic differential ...
2
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158 views

Control Variate Barrier Basket Option

I need to improve the speed of convergence of PRNG Monte Carlo. I'm opening a new thread for that purpose and I have question / need confirmation about the algorithm. I'm pricing options with Heston, ...
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350 views

Quasi Monte Carlo method and Heston model

I want to run a quasi monte carlo simulation for Heston model in matlab. Obviously there exists a lot of literature regarding the theoretical aspects of the topic, for example by Baldeaux and Roberts, ...
2
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0answers
115 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of Spread Strategy. Two correlated assets vs One spread simulation?

I am trying to simulate paths of a certain spread strategy such as a calendar spread between two futures ( May Crude vs Aug Crude) using a Monte Carlo simulation. My questions is there a difference ...
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111 views

Monte Carlo approach to RAN bonds in Quantlib or suggestions

This is a problem from Schlogl's book in the chapter on the HJM model: Price option of the RAN instrument with 3 month coupons and maturity 3 years using Monte Carlo(Exercise 4 Range Accrual Note). ...
2
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1k views

Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ARMA-...
2
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0answers
2k views

Simulation of Heston process

I am currently working on implementing Heston model in matlab for option pricing (in this case I am trying to price a European call) and I wanted to compare the results I obtain from using the exact ...
2
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0answers
424 views

Initial values for Heston Model calibration

I'm doing a Heston model in Matlab using simple Monte Carlo simulations (5.000 paths and 2 steps per day, simulating 360 days). When I try to calibrate the Heston parameters using fminsearch it takes ...
2
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0answers
107 views

Practitioner's criterion for MC pricing convergence

Let's say I have some Interest Rates (IR) pricing model which relies on Monte Carlo pricing and I'd like to benchmark its quality and find out optimal settings (time steps & iterations) per asset ...
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0answers
1k views

How to price zero coupon bonds with the Monte Carlo method?

Im trying to calculate monthly ZCB bond prices with a fixed maturity T, over a period of months via Monte Carlo methods. Here is my attempt: For the first month, the price is $P_{t_0}(0,T) = E[exp(-...
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0answers
83 views

Valuing American Options using Tilley algorithm

Hey I want to implement Tilley's algorithm (Valuing American Options in a Path Simulation Model by JA Tilley, 1993) to price american options. Where can I find implementation of this method in any ...
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58 views

How to use log moneyness in a local volatility context

I am implementing a monte carlo to price various options using a local volatility model. The implied volatility surface from which the local volatility is derived is a function of logmoneyness and ...
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0answers
20 views

MC Simulation using G2Process Evolve function

I am trying to simulate the IR for G2 Process using the following code. However, the initial value of the simulation starts with zero. I want to initialize the simulation using a starting value. Is ...
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0answers
35 views

Gaussian Copulas: My Marginal Distribution Includes Negatives but My Copula is Non-Negative?

Attempting Copula in R for Stock Returns, Bond Returns, and Inflation Rates. This is my first attempt with Copulas but I have looked many places and cannot determine what I'm doing wrong. My Marginal ...
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0answers
42 views

calibration of local volatility to

I'm looking to understand the practical details of calibrating local volatility to option prices for a range of different expiries using the Dupire local volatility equation. Would appreciate some ...
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1answer
191 views

Monte Carlo simulation for OTM options under stochastic volatility

I'm looking to simulate the stochastic price and volatility process (Heston model) using some form of Euler method for Monte Carlo approximation of option prices. The results that I get are acceptable ...
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1answer
166 views

First Hitting Time and Monte Carlo simulation

I am interested in implementing a Monte Carlo simulation in Python of a first hitting time (first passage time) of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (or similar). Specifically interested in fatter tails ...
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0answers
138 views

Hull white model calibration - constant mean reverse factor and sigma

I setup a HW 1F model using Monte Carlo simulation with constant mean reversion and volatility factors. When I calibrate to a series of swaptions ( 1x4yr;2x3yr;3x2yr;4x1yr),the last three swaption ...
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0answers
114 views

Vasicek Short rate simulation - analytical formula vs discretization

I've been using two approaches to simulate Vasicek short rate paths and I'm wondering if one of them is more correct than the other. The first approach is based on the analytical formula (see code ...
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0answers
42 views

Minimum variance hedge ratio price difference vs. log-returns

So from my understanding Hull (2012) f.e. shows that the optimal hedge ratio minimizes the variance of the returns. But what happens to the variance of the prices? Is the Minimum variance hedge ...
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0answers
61 views

Risk-Neutral covariance matrix of arbitrage-free Nelson Siegel

For my thesis on a Bayesian sampling routine for a modification on arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel I came across an equation that involves a matrix exponential within an integral, i.e. $\int_{0}^{\Delta ...
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0answers
47 views

Advantage of copula over estimation based on historical data

It seems to me hard to intuitively understand the concept of copulas and their advantages. For example, why would it be better to estimate value at risk of portfolio by modelling its asset returns ...
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0answers
56 views

Simulate correlated Brownian motions conditioned on future state(s)

Consider a model defined by 2 geometric Brownian motions $$dY_{1}(t) = \sigma_{2} Y_{1}(t)dW_{1}(t)$$ $$dY_{2}(t) = \sigma_{2} Y_{2}(t)dW_{2}(t)$$ with $Y_{1}(0) = y_{1}$, $Y_{2}=y_{2}$ and $dW_{1}(...
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0answers
27 views

Lognormal asymmetry implication on Value at Risk

To examine the Value at Risk implications for a portfolio consisting of a spot and futures time series I have generated a 1-day monte carlo simulation. I was long in the spot and short in the future (...
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1answer
235 views

Formula for quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull-White model

Is there a closed formula to approximate the quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull White model? Background The Hull-White is a Gaussian model for the short rate. Its mean and covariance ...
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0answers
58 views

Multiple layer Monte Carlo Option pricing

I have simulated 10000 price paths from the SVCJ model under $\mathbb{Q}$ from $S_{t0}$ until $S_{tm}$ and have computed one discounted option price $C_t$. I want to compute the numerical simulated ...
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0answers
636 views

Geometric Brownian Motion with Dividends

I am working on a problem and had a quick question. I understand that for Geometric Brownian Motion we use the formula: $$X_{t_n} = X_{t_{n-1}} + \mu X_{t_{n-1}} \Delta t + \sigma X_{t_{n-1}} \...
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0answers
121 views

Ultra Powerfull Vibrato Montecarlo for delta sensitivities of a not regular payoff

Ciao, I am working on a derivative with the following payoff at time $T$: $$ \sqrt{(S_T - K)^+} $$ where $S_T$ is the value of the stock at the expiring date. As usual we will assume $S_t$ to be a ...
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0answers
20 views

Benchmark values for exotic options with highly nonlinear boundaries

I have created some modifications of least squares monte carlo algorithm for pricing american options which gives me lower and upper bound. Now I want to test how good it works for options with highly ...
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0answers
39 views

Asian basket option variance reduction control variates monte carlo

I have priced an Asian put option with three underlying correlated stocks. Now I want to try to reduce the variance using control variates. I have found great ideas when there is one underlying (thus ...