Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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107 views

Monte Carlo simulation does not converge

Consider the following model in insurance companies: $S_t= x +t - \sum_{j=1}^t X_j$, where $X_j$ are binomial distributed random variables with the same parameters. The $X_j$ model the loss for each $...
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1answer
96 views

Simulation of Heston model, best reference?

I am currently experimenting with various implementations for simulating the standard Heston model. \begin{eqnarray*} dS_t &=& \mu S_t \, dt + \sqrt{v_t} \cdot S_t \, dW_t^S \\ dv_t &=&...
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1answer
85 views

Hull-White Monte Carlo simulation - mean reversion function

Quite new to implementing Hull white model in Monte Carlo simulation, hope to get help for 1. how to get the function $\theta$ in the following formula (the function used to match initial term ...
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42 views

Vasicek Short rate simulation - analytical formula vs discretization

I've been using two approaches to simulate Vasicek short rate paths and I'm wondering if one of them is more correct than the other. The first approach is based on the analytical formula (see code ...
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44 views

R2 and index returns

The sp500, normally, is close to its moving average. Deviations from this avergae by two standard deviations or more occur only 5% of the time by definition. There is also a tendency, when prices are ...
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1answer
202 views

How to reduce variance in Monte Carlo using Control Variates when spot prices are decreasing?

I'm trying to use the Control Variates technique to reduce the variance of the estimate obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation for option pricing. As suggested in the book by Glasserman I'm using this ...
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1answer
56 views

Monte Carlo price of European option on ZCB under Vasicek short rate

I'm trying to replicate the analytical result from the closed form Vasicek formula for European options on zero-coupon bonds using Monte-Carlo simulation. The interest rate paths I've simulated seem ...
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32 views

Can the Heston model be used to price ANY option?

I've been reading through Heston's work and different Monte Carlo extensions of it and it seems very interestingly flexible. I've mainly used an application of it for pricing Memory Autocalls. Am I ...
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1answer
96 views

Autocall pricing: what does “Lipschitz continuous parameterization” mean?

I've been reading through this research paper (A Monte Carlo Pricing Algorithm For Autocallables That Allows for Stable Differentiation by T. Alm, B. Harrach, D. Harrach, M. Keller) about a method for ...
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1answer
180 views

How to perform Monte Carlo simulations to price a Forward contract under the Schwartz mean reverting model?

Objective: (1) Implement the Euler Explicit Method for solving the PDE for option prices under the Schwartz mean reverting model. (2) Compare with a Monte Carlo simulation. I'm stuck with point 1 (...
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1answer
85 views

Heston Monte Carlo or FFT Pricing

I am trying to better understand the Heston model and its implementation. It seems like a lot of people use the FFT method for calculating the call prices during the Heston calibration, but the Monte ...
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1answer
54 views

When pricing with Monte Carlo using market prices, should we use only the first price or all the prices to create the paths?

I have a vector $S=(S_0,S_1,...)$ of monthly oil spot prices and for each of them I have to compute, using Monte Carlo, the price of the forward contract having it as underlying asset. The equation ...
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2answers
185 views

Python Monte-Carlo Convergence

Edited to include VBA code for comparison Also, we know the analytical value of the simple Call option, which is 8.021, towards which the Monte-Carlo should converge, which makes the comparison easier....
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2answers
220 views

How to interpret and define statistics of GBM output

I am trying to model the future prices of a number of commodities. For this, I am applying geometric Brownian motion, writing a Monte Carlo code in Python. Given that I want to estimate tommorows ...
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1answer
114 views

Euler Discretization to use with Monte Carlo simulation and Local Volatility Model

Like in the title, I am working on running Monte Carlo simulations to price options with the Local Volatility model as a project. I just want to make sure that I am understanding the process, ...
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1answer
139 views

Accuracy of Euler Monte Carlo discretization without knowing exact solution?

By using Euler Monte Carlo discretization (for a Hull-White model) we simulate $$r(t+\Delta t)=r(t)+\lambda(\theta(t)-r(t))\Delta t+\eta\sqrt{\Delta t}Z$$ with $Z\sim N(0,1)$, $\lambda$, $\eta$ ...
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1answer
60 views

Heston Discretization dt

I’m trying to figure out the discretization of the Heston model. In the choice of dt, I have seen several ways that people specify this number. Would it not just be ...
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40 views

Simulation of price ratios

How to go about simulations of variables like price-to-book or dividend yield? Basically I would like to do a simulation based testing of an investing strategy (other than historical simulation). It’s ...
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1answer
146 views

Formula for quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull-White model

Is there a closed formula to approximate the quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull White model? Background The Hull-White is a Gaussian model for the short rate. Its mean and covariance ...
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1answer
82 views

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross: Monte Carlo Simulation

I am trying to build a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel (yes, far from optimal) for valuation of a callable bond. I have some experience with MC simulation on path dependent derivatives with stocks as ...
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4answers
5k views

Monte Carlo simulating Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process

The CIR process is given by the SDE $$ \mathrm dr_t = \theta(\mu-r_t)\mathrm dt + \sigma\sqrt{r_t}\mathrm dW_t $$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion. I am interested in finite-difference schemes of ...
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2answers
63 views

Issue in Pricing Binary Options using Heaviside Function and QuantLib Python

I am trying to price binary option using MC Simulation and Python QuantLib Library. The price of the option matches with the Analytical Engine. However, I am not sure how to incorporate the Heaviside ...
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1answer
38 views

Issue in Pricing Barrier Options using MCBarrierEngine in QuantLib Python

Extremely sorry for bugging the community again, but I am struggling with finding proper documentation of QuantLib Python. I am trying to price Barrier Option using MC Simulation. Here is the code: <...
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1answer
120 views

Greeks: Estimate gamma by Monte Carlo finite difference

When I was using Monte Carlo to calculate the gamma of a vanilla call option by finite difference method, I stuck in this weird situation as below. Consider this, $$ Gamma = \frac{CallPrice(S^{up}_{T})...
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46 views

Which infinite activity Levy process is the most popular for option pricing

Hey I heard about different Levy processes with infinite activity like VG, NIG, Meixner or CGMY process, but which proccesses are the most popular? And which processes can be simulated (as simple as ...
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1answer
99 views

How do you handle implied volatility performing a VaR Monte-Carlo simulation using a stochastic volatility process calibrated on the underlying

Say you have a portfolio consisting of options each having a market implied volatility. If you now use some stochastic volatility model like GARCH to calibrate the real world volatility of the ...
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436 views

Least Squares Monte Carlo

Could you explain to me in words (no formulas) the concept of the Least Squares Monte Carlo method to price an American style option?
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3k views

Greeks: Why does my Monte Carlo give correct delta but incorrect gamma?

For a vanilla European call, my Monte Carlo method gives the right option price and delta but the wrong gamma. In particular, the value of gamma varies wildly each time I run the method. I estimate ...
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1answer
80 views

Monte Carlo approach and methods for generating random returns

Recently I found myself reading more about Monte Carlo approach in m.v. portfolio optimization framework. I already discuss the topic on this forum (if interested please consider the following links - ...
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1answer
394 views

Monte Carlo (resampling) in m.v. portfolio optimization

The instability and high sensitivity of optimisation results can be augmented by adding another layer of quantitative methodology in the form of Monte Carlo Simulation. The name Monte Carlo alludes to ...
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1answer
98 views

Does anyone have any suggestions on using Monte Carlo simulations to calculate Greeks of basket option?

I'd ideally like to use algorithmic differentiation or finite difference methods to approximate the Greeks of a basket option. It would be a European style basket on $N$ stocks with the payoff being $\...
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30 views

Pricing deep OTM and short expiry options with Monte Carlo methods

Is there any good variance reduction technique to price with MC deep OTM and short tenor options under Local Volatility? Can importance sampling be used? I couldn’t find any reference which does not ...
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1answer
78 views

MonteCarlo Value at Risk for a bonds portfolio

As mentioned in the title, I am trying to calculate MC VaR for a portfolio consisting entirely of bonds. I already modeled the zero curve using Vasicek and Cox,Ingersoll & Ross models. Next steps ...
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1answer
121 views

How to price a barrier using monte carlo when return distribution is not iid?

this question is actually related to set the stop loss and stop return. Say after a liquidity shock, I want to place two stops, one being stop loss and another being stop return. If I use, say 10 ...
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41 views

Simulating correlated stock paths to calculate VaR

So I wanted to generate a Monte Carlo simulation for two correlated assets to derive then the VaR as a quantile of the generated distributions. My code is the following, where the input parameters are ...
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1answer
53 views

Implementation of Stratified Sampling in Monte Carlo

Background I am trying to implement Monte Carlo Simulation with Stratified Sampling for barrier option under Black Scholes Model. I understand there is an analytic formula for this instrument and we ...
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1answer
203 views

simulate volatility surface

Assuming I have a stochastic volatility model for an asset, if I wanted to use it for pricing I would proceed in the following way: Use Euler discretization to simulate a sample path of the price and ...
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1answer
143 views

Simulation scheme for SABR beside the standard Euler discretization

QUESTION: Beside Euler Scheme, is there another more robust (and preferably easy to implement) way to simulate asset path with SABR dynamics? Simulation that will withstand even for high volatilities....
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1answer
64 views

Multivariate MC: what am I doing wrong?

I am trying to generate multivariate MC results presented in this paper A Simple Generalisation of Kirk’s Approximation for Multi-Asset Spread Options by the Lie-Trotter Operator Splitting Method, by ...
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1answer
259 views

Quasi Random Monte Carlo in m.v. portfolio optimization

Not specifying a correlation matrix for the Monte Carlo Simulation's random returns is equivalent to assuming no correlation or a correlation coefficient of zero, which will seriously and adversely ...
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1answer
78 views

What options are typically priced in practice by Monte-Carlo simulation?

More or less as the title states, for which options is the industry standard to price using Monte-Carlo simulation of the underlying, and for which of those options is this the only alternative? I ...
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1answer
97 views

Monte carlo delta calculation for Worst/Best Of Option

I try to calculate the Delta for WO by finite difference. For example, $K = 1.$ $$ S_t = S_0 e^{(r - d_1 - \frac{\sigma_1^2}{2})t + \sigma_1 W_t^1} $$ $$ F_t = F_0 e^{(r - d_2 - \frac{\sigma_2^2}{...
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1answer
160 views

Simulating assets of different currencies

I have a situation as follows: One year call option on a Euro stock with a Euro denominated strike. Knock in feature as follows - The option can only pay out if the growth in the Euro stock over ...
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3answers
628 views

Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process: physical and risk-neutral measure

From Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process I get paths in risk-neutal measure. How can I get paths in physical measure?
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1answer
65 views

Correct way to calculate interest rate volatility for risk calculations

I'm trying to include interest rate derivatives in some Value at Risk calculations and am having trouble getting trustworthy values. My current approach is to look at the appropriate risk factor for ...
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2answers
143 views

Effect of correlation on a best-of rainbow option

EDIT 2: I found the problem(s) and the prices seem to behave as expected now. For anyone interested there was a bug when normalizing the dependant ranom normal variates used in the simulation, so ...
4
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1answer
140 views

How to best predict option prices using Brownian motion and compare it to the Black and Scholes model?

I am trying to use Brownian motion to predict option prices and compare the outcomes to Black and Scholes. For this purpose, I would like to calculate the average returns (mu) and volatility (sigma) ...
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0answers
56 views

What are the most difficult/computationally expensive/infeasible derivatives to price?

I'm not sure if this question has a concrete answer or if it's more of a fun game, but I suppose the question that does have a concrete answer is what's the most difficult instrument to value that has ...
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34 views

Simulated VaR with differently distributed processes

I am attempting to calculate the one-month 95th and 99th percentile profits for a two-year portfolio of energy-generating assets over the next three months. This means that the calculation has two ...
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1answer
2k views

Pricing a double barrier option using Monte Carlo (C++ & Python code included)

I'm trying to price an option with upper and lower barriers using MC where the payoff is $B_u$ when $S_t > B_u$, $B_l$ when $S_t < B_l$ and $S_t$ when $B_l < S_t < B_u$. I have written ...

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