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Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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4answers
2k views

Other means of calibrating Heston models

I understand that the simplest way of calibrating a Heston model for volatility surface is to use Monte-Carlo to simulate the vol and stock price trajectories and then use the observed price to do a ...
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3answers
4k views

rate of convergence for Monte Carlo

I would like to show explicitly the rate of convergence of Monte Carlo method to be $O(\sqrt{n})$, where $n$ is the number of simulation paths. Assume I want to do that with a price of a European call ...
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1answer
878 views

How are Brownian Bridges used in derivatives pricing in practice?

A similar question has already been asked in the past, unfortunately the 2nd question of the OP was never really addressed. Most references found on internet on Brownian Bridge and Monte-Carlo ...
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1answer
341 views

Pricing a log-contract using Monte Carlo

Having a payoff of log-contract defined as $$ \Pi_T = \ln \left(\frac{S_T}{S_0} \right) $$ How would you express the MC-estimator for the price of this contract? The stock price dynamics here is ...
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2answers
219 views

SDE for option value

Given an SDE for an underlying: $$dS(t) = \mu(S,t)dt+\sigma(S,t)dW(t)$$ the SDE for the value of the option $V=V(S,t)$ is given via Ito's lemma as: $$dV = V_tdt+V_S\mu(S,t)dt+\frac{1}{2}V_{SS}\...
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1answer
744 views

Best way to do multithread Monte-Carlo in QuantLib

QuantLib has great facilities for Monte-Carlo pricing engines, classes McSimulation and MonteCarloModel do a lot of work. But they do it in a single thread. What is best way to introduce parallel run ...
3
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2answers
136 views

theoretical reason for which we can use monte carlo simulation for option pricing

The classic way to price an option is solving either analitically or numerically the associated PDE subject to the terminal and boundary conditions. An alternative approach is to use monte carlo ...
3
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1answer
286 views

Basic practical question about Delta hedging

I am trying to understand a simple thing about Delta hedging in the Black-Scholes world. I know I'm doing something blatantly wrong, I just can't see it now. Let's say I write a call option and sell ...
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2answers
176 views

Monte Carlo Methods for Pricing Derivatives

can someone please suggest a good book on Monte Carlo Simulation for Pricing Derivatives? Don't want a book which is too complicated like a PhD level. A Masters level should be good. Thanks a lot in ...
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1answer
205 views

What is wrong in this GBM simulation?

I am trying to generate a few samples of GBM using the following very simple MATLAB code: ...
3
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1answer
768 views

Monte Carlo for MultiFactor Ornstein Uhlenbeck

I'm following loosely the exposition given in "Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering by Glasserman. For a multifactor OU process: $dX(t)=C(b-X(t))dt+DdW(t)$ Where C and D are d*d matrices ...
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1answer
234 views

Picking from two correlated distributions

Can anyone provide a simple example of picking from two distributions, such that the two generated time series give a specified value of Pearson's correlation coefficient? I would like to do this in ...
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1answer
865 views

Choice of time increment in Monte Carlo/ Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) stock price prediction

I am playing around with writing a daily stock price prediction algo in Python using a Monte Carlo/GBM methodology. I know there are many other questions on here about this topic (here, and here), but ...
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2answers
327 views

Convergence of the distribution of 0.05 quantiles through Monte-Carlo simulation

I am trying to get admitted to a masters in quantitative finance (I come from a computer science background), so next week I will have 3h to solve an exam in statistical computing using my favourite ...
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2answers
666 views

Sobol numbers in monte Carlo simulation

I wanted to figure how how much faster the Sobol quasi random numbers convergence to the B&S call price compared with pseudo random numbers. To generate the Sobol numbers I used the randtoolbox in ...
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1answer
278 views

QuantLib C++: Monte Carlo Engine with SequenceStatistics

I'm trying to implement a Monte Carlo PricingEngine that stores multidimensional statistics. I have done the following: Defined a Monte Carlo Trait that among other things stores as the ...
3
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1answer
160 views

Evaluation of the semi-closed Heston pricing formula for call options

I'd like to know, how the integral part of the semi-closed Heston pricing formula for call options can be simulated for a given set of model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations shoud work for this ...
3
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2answers
742 views

How to simulate a CIR process using GPU and Matlab

I am trying to simulate a CIR process using Matlab and my GPU for effeciency. At the moment i run into some implementation problems due to the recursive nature of the discretization. The sheme I ...
3
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3answers
557 views

Convergence of GBM mean after simulation?

As a follow up of my previous question, I am now simulating the GBM step by step for $n$ steps. I am using the following implementation for the simulation: $$S_{t+1} = S_t \exp \left[ \left(\mu-\...
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2answers
820 views

Valuation of barrier options in Jump diffusion model

I am trying to evaluate the value of a Barrier option using Monte carlo method. The stock follows a jump diffusion model. I am using the method described in Metwally and Atiya. The authors describe ...
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1answer
122 views

Antithetic sampling Monte Carlo

In Peter Jaeckel, Monte Carlo in Finance book, I read the following sentence: Whenever the first realised moment of the underlying variate draws $\{z_i\}$ has a strong impact on the result of the ...
3
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1answer
263 views

Implied volatility in Monte Carlo models

Suppose I want to get the implied volatility for a given option, whose process does not generate a closed-form formula. In that framework, how is the IV calculated, given the fact that bisection ...
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1answer
207 views

How to model High/Low prices for Stocks with Monte Carlo

I'm using monte carlo simulation to model stock paths and measure risk, but I was wondering if there is a way to simulate the full bar/candle chart with open, high, low and close prices , as I'm only ...
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1answer
355 views

Fitting stochastic variance distributions to index return data

I want to calculate option prices based on a realistic distribution of the underlying. The underlying is a liquid index such as Eurostoxx50. I think of two aproaches, both of them incorporate ...
3
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1answer
406 views

Is there an easily implementable alternative to lognormal growth (something with fatter tails)?

I have a toy model in Excel for the growth of a investment portfolio. I assume iid lognormal annual growth factors: =EXP(mu+sigma*NORM.S.INV(RAND())) where mu and ...
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1answer
257 views

Local Volatility with Monte Carlo Simulation

I am trying to implement a Monte Carlo Simulation using Local Volatility Model (Dupire’s Equation). I’m pretty sure I can build a very good LV surface, however, I do not know how to use it in the MC ...
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1answer
55 views

Accuracy of Euler Monte Carlo discretization without knowing exact solution?

By using Euler Monte Carlo discretization (for a Hull-White model) we simulate $$r(t+\Delta t)=r(t)+\lambda(\theta(t)-r(t))\Delta t+\eta\sqrt{\Delta t}Z$$ with $Z\sim N(0,1)$, $\lambda$, $\eta$ ...
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1answer
297 views

Time Step Size for Heston Model for Different Option Maturity

Suppose we are to price with Monte Carlo method two options differing only in the maturity time, with the same, say, call option payoff, or Asian option payoff with a fixed averaging window, with the ...
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1answer
268 views

American option - Upper bound

I have computed a lower bound for an american option through longstaff and schwartz's algorithm. Now I have to compute the upper bound as andersen and broadie does in their article linked. Can anybody ...
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1answer
337 views

Monte Carlo Convergence

Let $\{X_i\}$ be an i.i.d. sample of $X$ with $E(X) = \mu$ and $Var(X) = \sigma^2$. We know a MC estimate converges to the true value almost surely by the SLLN. That is, $$ \bar{X}_n \to \mu, \...
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2answers
2k views

Why does changing the time step size in my Monte Carlo simulation change my result a lot?

I have written some software to price a call option using Monte Carlo simulation. It produces a price which is consistent with the model when I set the time step as recommended in a tutorial that I ...
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2answers
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Black Scholes and Monte Carlo implementations in Java [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: Is there an all Java options-pricing library (preferably open source) besides jquantlib? Can anyone recommend a library with an implementation of Black Scholes and Monte Carlo ...
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Are radial basis functions popular in least squares monte carlo option pricing?

In a Longstaff-Schwarz setting option on several underlyings can be priced using least squares monte carlo. Using suitable set of basis functions, continuation values can be approximated using ...
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1answer
180 views

Monte Carlo Method for American Call Option (No Dividends)

I tried to pricing the American Call option using "Longstaff-Schwartz" least squares method. However, I found the American call option is always lower than the Monte Carlo European call option (they ...
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0answers
70 views

Solving BSDE in R

I was wondering how to implement a BSDE approximation in R. For example, if I have the toy BSDE $$ dX_t = \mu dt + \sigma dW_t ; X_T\sim N(\mu_1,\sigma_1), $$ for fixed real numbers $\mu,\mu_1,\sigma,...
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0answers
108 views

How can I estimate the time-varying θ term in the Hull-White one factor model?

I am trying to simulate the prices of bond indexes (e.g. Barclays Aggregate, IBOXX sovereign, IBOXX corporates) using Monte Carlo assuming that they follow the SDE given by the Hull-White model (one-...
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2answers
173 views

How to interpret and define statistics of GBM output

I am trying to model the future prices of a number of commodities. For this, I am applying geometric Brownian motion, writing a Monte Carlo code in Python. Given that I want to estimate tommorows ...
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0answers
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Jamshidian's trick for Swaptions

Following Brigo$^1$ p.77, we can decompose the price of a swaption as a sum of Zero-Coupon bond options (Jamshidian's Trick). To do so, the authors suggest to find $r^*$ the value of the spot rate at ...
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1answer
492 views

Importance Sampling for Least Square Monte Carlo [duplicate]

I am currently trying to implement and model an Importance Sampling estimator for Longstaff and Schwartz algorithm for pricing American put options. It is used such that more paths are in-the-money ...
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89 views

Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
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0answers
840 views

Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (formula dont match Monte Carlo Simulation)

I posted this question before on MSE I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all ...
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0answers
117 views

Optimizing stochastic functions numerically

Is there an efficient and commonly used optimization method for "more complex" investment strategies. For instance, say you have a function $f(X_1,...,X_n,c,v)$ where the $X_k$'s are your random ...
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2answers
258 views

What are some examples of non-solvable SDE where Monte Carlo discretization is necessary

Reading Glasserman - "Monte Carlo Methods in Finance" it says in the introduction to Chapter 6 - Discretization Methods, that moste models arising in derivatives pricing can be simulated only ...
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1answer
515 views

Calibration by monte carlo, should I fix my seed?

I am calibrating a 3-parameter stochastic model to options market data via Monte Carlo simulation. Let the parameter set be denoted by $\bar{\theta}$. (this is not a simple Black-Scholes type model, ...
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1answer
3k views

How to generate simulated stock price from historical data using R?

I have created a strategy specifically for a particular stock which I backtested with its historical data. Now I want to forward test it with simulated stock price generated using Monte Carlo. I have ...
2
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1answer
228 views

Deep ITM Call Implied Vol via Monte Carlo

Let's say I've computed the price of a call using Monte Carlo with $S_0 = 100$ and $K = 80$, using $T = 0.1$ and $r = 0$ to be $\$20.00095$. This price estimate comes with a $95\%$ confidence ...
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1answer
232 views

Testing a Monte Carlo simulation independently

I'm building a Monte Carlo option pricing model in Python/SciPy. I want to test the results produced by the Python code by building the model independently in Excel and then comparing the results. Off ...
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1answer
2k views

How to explain the path dependency in binomial tree model to price options?

I'm new to quantitative finance, so I'm confused with the so-called path dependency in binomial tree model. Originally I thought the path dependency exists because in binomial tree model, we will ...
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3answers
238 views

VaR estimate with Monte Carlo simlation

i want to verify the theoretical VaR 99% for the following Random Variable: \begin{align*} X=\epsilon + \nu, \end{align*} $\epsilon \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$, \begin{align*} \nu= \begin{cases}\begin{...
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1answer
222 views

Using crude Monte Carlo

Background Information: The crude Monte Carlo algorithm for the arithmetic Asian call option is $$Y = e^{-rT}(\overline{S}_A - K)^{+}$$ and the control is $$C e^{-rT}(\overline{S}_G - K)^{+}$$ The ...