Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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Simulation of Heston process

I am currently working on implementing Heston model in matlab for option pricing (in this case I am trying to price a European call) and I wanted to compare the results I obtain from using the exact ...
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345 views

Initial values for Heston Model calibration

I'm doing a Heston model in Matlab using simple Monte Carlo simulations (5.000 paths and 2 steps per day, simulating 360 days). When I try to calibrate the Heston parameters using fminsearch it takes ...
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Practitioner's criterion for MC pricing convergence

Let's say I have some Interest Rates (IR) pricing model which relies on Monte Carlo pricing and I'd like to benchmark its quality and find out optimal settings (time steps & iterations) per asset ...
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How to price zero coupon bonds with the Monte Carlo method?

Im trying to calculate monthly ZCB bond prices with a fixed maturity T, over a period of months via Monte Carlo methods. Here is my attempt: For the first month, the price is $P_{t_0}(0,T) = E[exp(-...
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Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
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316 views

What would be a concise method to learn Monte Carlo methods?

Is there a concise way of learning the core Monte Carlo Methods from resources available online? This leads to my next question which is what are the core ideas to learn in Monte Carlo methods?
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157 views

Why are Interest Rate Swaps not valued using Monte Carlo Simulations?

the current valuation methods seem to rely on treating the floating payment as deterministic based on the current yield curve and derived forward rates. But wouldnt it make more sense to use monte ...
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Pricing a double barrier option using Monte Carlo (C++ & Python code included)

I'm trying to price an option with upper and lower barriers using MC where the payoff is $B_u$ when $S_t > B_u$, $B_l$ when $S_t < B_l$ and $S_t$ when $B_l < S_t < B_u$. I have written ...
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907 views

Accuracy Rebonato Swaption Approximation Formula among Different Strikes

Can somebody explain me if the Rebonato swaption volatility approximation formula is accurate for only ATM strikes, and if yes why? Can it also be used for ITM and OTM strikes? My foundings: Let $0 &...
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561 views

Importance sampling for barrier option like pricing by Monte carlo

I would like to know some references regarding importance sampling algorithms for variance reduction of Monte Carlo barrier options pricing. Please could someone help me leaving some references? If ...
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What is actually going on in Monte-Carlo simulation for Mortgage backed securities?

I just wanted to clear somethings up when it comes to pricing Mortgage backed securities using Monte-Carlo methods. I understand that interest rate paths have to be modelled in order to come up with ...
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327 views

Difference between cross-validation, backtesting, historical simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap replication?

To determine if a strategy is better than others, or to optimize the parameters of a model, the following statistical techniques are often employed, often one over the others instead of altogether. ...
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Simulating a path of bond yields by Monte Carlo (Python)

I have a number of given time series for bond yields (given in a dataframe in pandas package in Python). I need to do the following task in Python: "1. Simulate 1000 path 30 steps ahead for any yield ...
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135 views

Do we need to derive the PDE for the option price when applying Least Squares Monte Carlo?

I want to price an American call option based on an underlying that follows a jump-diffusion process with an inhomogeneous jump frequency function. My mathematical skills are not sufficient to derive ...
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633 views

Error in barrier option pricing Monte Carlo

I am currently trying to price an up-and-out call with Monte Carlo simulation. For an option with these parameters : Barrier: 65 $K$ = 50 $\sigma$ = 30% $R $ = 1% $T$ = 1Y $S_0$ = 50 With 10.000 ...
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379 views

Pricing Exotics: Monte-Carlo is too slow?

I want to price exotic options under the exponential VG model and Merton's model to compare both models. To price exotics under Merton's model, I have written the code below. The output is the price ...
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994 views

how to derive critical values for augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) using Monte Carlo method?

Can anybody explain in simple terms how the critical value of the ADF test can be derived using Monte Carlo simulation?
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Why do we need correlated random variables in a Monte Carlo simulation?

Question: I don't understand why a Monte Carlo simulation needs correlated random variables. Isn't each simulation thread independent? Background: Specifically, I'm referring to the below example on ...
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Discrepancy between binomial model, Black-Scholes and Monte-Carlo Simulation

I try to use Monte-Carlo Simulation to price a 10-year call option. Based on below parameter, S = 1, X = 1, volatility = 80%, T = 10, risk-free rate = 0.22% The option value based on Monte-Carlo ...
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93 views

Effect of correlation on a best-of rainbow option

I'm valuing a rainbow option numerically with a monte-carlo simulation and I'm getting some unexpected results. The price of a best-of call option is decreasing in price as correlation up to a certain ...
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98 views

L2 Assumptions of the Longstaff Schwartz method

In page 121 of the original LS Paper they use the fact that the space of functions they are dealing with (payoffs of American options), belong to the $\mathcal L^2$ space. They use this assumption ...
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160 views

GBM in R giving negative numbers?

I was under the impression that simulations involving geometric brownian motion are not supposed to yield negative numbers. However, I was trying the following Monte Carlo simulation in R for a GBM, ...
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216 views

generating a correlated RV which has the same correlation to existing samples

Suppose I have generated a collection of correlated sequences of samples $(S_i)_{i=1}^{n}$ from random variables $\mathbf{\underline{x}} = x_i$. Let's fix a sequence of reals $(\sigma_i)_{i=0}^{n}$. ...
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892 views

Basket Option pricing of two stocks

I am trying to use Monte Carlo simulation to price arithmetic basket option consisting of two stocks. There seems to be something wrong in my implementation. According to the inputs ...
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274 views

In a Monte Carlo simulation, will a delta hedge control variate necessarily reduce the standard error more than an antithetic variate?

I have four Monte Carlo simulations and will list them in order of highest standard error to lowest. Plain MC MC with delta hedge control variate MC with antithetic variate MC with antithetic and ...
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Monte Carlo method vs PDE in option pricing

Good evening everyone, I would like to ask a question about Monte Carlo and PDE Pricing. For an American option, which one should we use, Monte Carlo method or PDE method? The same question for an ...
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531 views

Timesteps in Vasicek model

When simulating stocks one can easily use GBM with only one random variable per simulation to create a new stock price in say 5 years, you don't need to create the whole asset paths if you don't need ...
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135 views

Efficient numerical approaches for pricing American Options with multiple sources of noise

I am looking for efficient numerical approaches for pricing American options when two or more sources of noise are involved (the simplest case coming to mind would be the Heston Model) Eventhough I ...
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1answer
2k views

MonteCarlo simulation of stock prices using milstein scheme with dividend yield?

While performing a montecarlo simulation of stock prices using the milstein scheme is it possible to take into account the dividend yield into the simulation itself somehow, if we are given a ...
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1answer
503 views

Control variate for Heston model

Does anyone have suggestions for potential control variates for vanillas in a Heston model? I've tried black scholes with implied volatility, average volatility and long term volatility all without ...
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1answer
85 views

Current discount rate of Hull White One-Factor Monte Carlo Simulation

I have a question about the Hull-White One-Factor Monte Carlo Simulation. As we know under the Hull-White One-Factor Model, the short rate follows a random process. So basically, every simulation path ...
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1answer
497 views

Hull white model Monte Carlo simulation Zero Coupon Bond

I am trying to use Hull White Model to price a zero coupon bond by Monte Carlo Simulation. The basic idea is under this equation: Under Hull White Model, I want to generate every short rate (r) and ...
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489 views

How to calculate mean and volatility parameters for Geometric Brownian motion?

Say I have a time series $S_K$ for monthly asset prices for the last 30 years. I want to run a monte carlo simulation using geometric brownian motion $$S_t = S_0\exp\left(\left(\mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{...
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782 views

Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process

I have one question about Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process, maybe you can give me some advice. I constructed a Hull-White process using Python and QuantLib. Now I want to construct a Hull-...
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139 views

Question about the process of monte carlo simulation

I have encountered an interesting question. Is it better to simulate the geometric brownian motion process for call itself or GBM for the underlying. My question is can we actually apply GBM to call? ...
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524 views

Books about Monte Carlo Simulation on derivatives with Python

I am looking for a good reference for Monte Carlo simulation applied to derivatives with Python. Most books I found until now deal with C++... I have found "Derivatives Analytics with Python" by Yves ...
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78 views

Handling option expiration during Monte Carlo simulation

I have equity options in my portfolio that can expire during a VaR calculation (with Monte Carlo). For example the time to maturity of my option is T days but I simulate for T+n days (n > 0). What ...
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131 views

Can someone check this boundary condition for me?

At the moment I'm comparing plots between the implicit numerical Black-Scholes PDE and the Monte-Carlo Method for the Black-Scholes equation. However, for the particular boundary condition I'm using I'...
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2answers
158 views

FTAP wih Heston Model

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing (FTAP) is invoked when we say the time $0$ price of a European option with payoff $g$ is $e^{-rT}E_Q(g(S_T))$, with the hypothesis that $e^{-rt}S_t$ is a $Q$-...
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246 views

Is Poisson Disk Sampling an alternative to crude Monte Carlo and QMC?

I recently stumbled over Poisson Disk Sampling (here and the meditative version). I wonder if it is an alternative to crude or quasi Monte Carlo for very high dimensional integrals. It is not ...
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215 views

Monte Carlo Accuracy - Antithetic Variate Method

I'm self studying for an actuarial exam and I am curious about a property of the antithetic variate method for increasing the Monte Carlo price accuracy (i.e. For every random draw of $z$, also ...
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582 views

Conditional probability of geometric brownian motion

I created paths using GBM to implement The stochastic mesh method. But the method requires the conditional distribution, given some S(t) the probability of S(t+1). I've searched and can't find this ...
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5k views

Barrier option : Monte carlo simulation

I am trying to price a Down-and-Out Call using Monte Carlo simulation. The problem is that I get the right price for the vanilla option (same price as the analytic formula of Black and Scholes) but I ...
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200 views

Least-Square Monte Carlo in multiple variable

The paper by Longstaff-Schwatz on Least Square Monte Carlo offers very little proof. The only proof they have given assumed the option can only be exercised at two different time point and the price ...
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609 views

CVA as a running spread - risk annuity calculation in the Monte Carlo framework

I have simulated future term structures in the one-factor Hull-White model and calculated the CVA of a particular trade (let's say, now I have it in absolute value, in dollars). However, I want to ...
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1answer
2k views

Calculate CVaR for a portfolio

I would like to calculate the Conditional Value at Risk for a portfolio. To be honest, I'm trying for a few days to find an example to calculate for an entire portfolio, not just for one security and ...
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68 views

Cholesky correlation

I have historic time series for spot and futures and I want to now simulate future price paths for 1 day to get the distribution and from there compute the value at risk. My question is now since i am ...
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1answer
78 views

European Call option replication

An asset $S_t$ is evolving according to the Black-Scholes model. We want to replicate a call option on this asset by holding Delta units of the asset at every time. I use a Monte Carlo algorithm to ...
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80 views

Hindsight overhedge for pricing path dependent options

I understand how to use the longstaff schwartz method in Monte Carlo to compute the continuation value of path dependent options but someone recently mentioned another technique called "Hindsight ...
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187 views

How can I conduct a basic Monte carlo simulation on 2 stocks?

I have 2 stocks in my portfolio A and B.A is currently at 50 dollars and B at 40 dollars. Correlation between A and B is 0. Let us say I bought the stocks today at 50 and 40 dollars. If I wish to use ...

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