Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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2k views

Calculate CVaR for a portfolio

I would like to calculate the Conditional Value at Risk for a portfolio. To be honest, I'm trying for a few days to find an example to calculate for an entire portfolio, not just for one security and ...
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68 views

Cholesky correlation

I have historic time series for spot and futures and I want to now simulate future price paths for 1 day to get the distribution and from there compute the value at risk. My question is now since i am ...
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1answer
79 views

European Call option replication

An asset $S_t$ is evolving according to the Black-Scholes model. We want to replicate a call option on this asset by holding Delta units of the asset at every time. I use a Monte Carlo algorithm to ...
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1answer
84 views

Hindsight overhedge for pricing path dependent options

I understand how to use the longstaff schwartz method in Monte Carlo to compute the continuation value of path dependent options but someone recently mentioned another technique called "Hindsight ...
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1answer
203 views

How can I conduct a basic Monte carlo simulation on 2 stocks?

I have 2 stocks in my portfolio A and B.A is currently at 50 dollars and B at 40 dollars. Correlation between A and B is 0. Let us say I bought the stocks today at 50 and 40 dollars. If I wish to use ...
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1answer
89 views

Computing Montecarlo VaR for a single asset

I'm trying to understand the procedure to compute the Value-at-Risk for a single asset by implementing the Montecarlo technique. Here it follows the procedure step-by-step in 5 points: selecting the ...
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1answer
117 views

How to compute estimate performance with variable returns and days held

I have a trading strategy that results in a number of holdings, each of which has a variable number of days held, and obviously, return. So, for example, suppose I run a Monte Carlo simulation, and ...
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1answer
776 views

How to estimate lambda for Jump-Diffusion Process from Empirical data?

So, I have really no idea how to go about this, but how would I go about choosing sensible parameter values for a basic jump-diffusion simulation, namely $\lambda$ ? For example, getting the average ...
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1answer
215 views

A forward Monte Carlo method for American Options Pricing

I am trying to implement the forward Monte Carlo algorithm from the paper "A Forward Monte Carlo Method for American Options Pricing" by Daniel Wei-Chung Miao and Yung-Hsin Lee. I am a little bit ...
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2answers
119 views

Finding optimal drift, importance sampling, least square monte carlo

I am working with Importance sampling for Least Squared monte carlo and have now problems understanding the implementation of the Robbins-Monro algorithm for finding the optimal drift for finding ...
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1answer
400 views

Is this formula correct to estimate a knock out option price using monte-carlo?

I have a knock-out option with barrier $L>0$ and strike $K$ that pays at maturity $(S-K)_+$. So, positive payoff occurs only in case the price stays below the barrier over life of the option. I am ...
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1answer
140 views

Andersen Broadie American/Bermudan Put

I'm trying to implement Andersen and Broadie's dual method for an upper bound (here) of a regular American Put. I understand the process to compute it, but I have a conceptual issue : everything ...
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205 views

Monte Carlo Option Pricing: Averaging Price Per Path

In Glasserman's book, he computes the price of an option by first computing the average price over each simulated price path. Once all the paths have been simulated, the average of all the payoffs is ...
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1answer
254 views

Calculate control variate for monte carlo simulation

For an exercise I need to calculate $\mathbb{E}[X]$ with a Monte Carlo simulation. I need to use control variate $Y$ with $\text{Var}(Y)=2$ and $\text{Cov}(X,Y)=1$. I am asked to give the optimale ...
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137 views

Martingale correction for Andersen scheme with Interest Rate

I have implemented martingale correction to my Andersen scheme for Heston model, as it is in the paper (page 19-22): http://www.ressources-actuarielles.net/EXT/ISFA/1226.nsf/0/...
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1answer
357 views

Geometric Brownian Motion: d(S) vs. d(ln(S))

I am quoting from "Tools for Computational Finance, 5th Edition" [Seydel]. I wonder whether the histogram of simulations of the first (yellow) SDE makes sense... especially given that Seydel (...
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1answer
161 views

Monte Carlo VaR assuming logistic distribution

I have a Monte Carlo model which measures the Value at Risk (VaR) for given portfolio. I use the geometric brownian motion to model the prices. But let's say I assumed the returns of prices follow the ...
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2answers
424 views

European call down and out option (geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo, Euler)

I need to estimate the expected value and the Greeks of an European call down and out option, assuming geometrical Brownian motion of the asset, with Monte Carlo simulation employing Euler ...
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1answer
106 views

Should earnings be modelled normally or lognormally?

I am having difficulty deciding whether a company's earnings should be modelled normally or lognormally. If we consider two arguments: (i) The earnings of a company are the returns on the assets of ...
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1answer
631 views

Getting Parameter of Translated Gamma Distribution from Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. (Edit) Main question: What do I do about a parameter whose suggested values range quite vastly? (Edit) Backstory: I am given data of loss values and the dates that correspond to ...
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1answer
75 views

Compute moments of aggregate loss using Monte Carlo

Spin-off from here. Richard referred to me an article that tells me how to get parameters of a translated gamma distribution to which I should consider fitting simulated aggregated loss values. The ...
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1answer
640 views

Median value for geometric brownian motion simulation

I'm trying to simulate stock prices using GBM. I am using the following formula, and MATLAB function, to determine the stock prices: $\nu = \mu - \frac{\sigma^{2}}{2}$; $S = S0*\text{[ones(1,nsims); ...
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2answers
715 views

Basket Option weight sensitivity calculation

I am looking to find/estimate the "greeks"/option price sensitivities/derivatives for a basket option situation. In specific the change in price of a put option associated with a change in weight of a ...
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1answer
748 views

Heston MC Simulations - Speed up in Matlab

At the moment I am running a Quad Core Xeon PC with 12GB of RAM doing crude MC with 10k scenarios and 1000 time steps. And using fminsearch for calibration, and it takes about half an hour to an hour ...
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46 views

Hand coded algorithm for tangent algorithmic differentiation

I'm looking for a way to hand code the algorithm for the forward/tangent mode of algorithmic differentiation to calculate option Greeks with Monte Carlo simulations. The computational power is very ...
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0answers
50 views

Risk-Neutral covariance matrix of arbitrage-free Nelson Siegel

For my thesis on a Bayesian sampling routine for a modification on arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel I came across an equation that involves a matrix exponential within an integral, i.e. $\int_{0}^{\Delta ...
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1answer
58 views

Heston Monte Carlo or FFT Pricing

I am trying to better understand the Heston model and its implementation. It seems like a lot of people use the FFT method for calculating the call prices during the Heston calibration, but the Monte ...
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38 views

Simulate correlated Brownian motions conditioned on future state(s)

Consider a model defined by 2 geometric Brownian motions $$dY_{1}(t) = \sigma_{2} Y_{1}(t)dW_{1}(t)$$ $$dY_{2}(t) = \sigma_{2} Y_{2}(t)dW_{2}(t)$$ with $Y_{1}(0) = y_{1}$, $Y_{2}=y_{2}$ and $dW_{1}(...
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20 views

Lognormal asymmetry implication on Value at Risk

To examine the Value at Risk implications for a portfolio consisting of a spot and futures time series I have generated a 1-day monte carlo simulation. I was long in the spot and short in the future (...
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1answer
93 views

Monte carlo delta calculation for Worst/Best Of Option

I try to calculate the Delta for WO by finite difference. For example, $K = 1.$ $$ S_t = S_0 e^{(r - d_1 - \frac{\sigma_1^2}{2})t + \sigma_1 W_t^1} $$ $$ F_t = F_0 e^{(r - d_2 - \frac{\sigma_2^2}{...
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1answer
117 views

Formula for quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull-White model

Is there a closed formula to approximate the quantiles of swaprates in the 1-factor Hull White model? Background The Hull-White is a Gaussian model for the short rate. Its mean and covariance ...
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1answer
207 views

Ho-Lee short rate model under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework

Under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework the dynamics of the Ho-Lee short rate model are defined as following: $$dr(t)=\theta(t)dt+\sigma dW^{\mathbb{Q}}(t)$$ with $\mathbb{Q}$ the risk-neutral ...
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55 views

Multiple layer Monte Carlo Option pricing

I have simulated 10000 price paths from the SVCJ model under $\mathbb{Q}$ from $S_{t0}$ until $S_{tm}$ and have computed one discounted option price $C_t$. I want to compute the numerical simulated ...
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387 views

Geometric Brownian Motion with Dividends

I am working on a problem and had a quick question. I understand that for Geometric Brownian Motion we use the formula: $$X_{t_n} = X_{t_{n-1}} + \mu X_{t_{n-1}} \Delta t + \sigma X_{t_{n-1}} \...
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111 views

Ultra Powerfull Vibrato Montecarlo for delta sensitivities of a not regular payoff

Ciao, I am working on a derivative with the following payoff at time $T$: $$ \sqrt{(S_T - K)^+} $$ where $S_T$ is the value of the stock at the expiring date. As usual we will assume $S_t$ to be a ...
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20 views

Benchmark values for exotic options with highly nonlinear boundaries

I have created some modifications of least squares monte carlo algorithm for pricing american options which gives me lower and upper bound. Now I want to test how good it works for options with highly ...
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142 views

Monte Carlo VAR with differente asset classes

I have found a very useful post regarding the use of Monte Carlo simulaton to obtain portfolio Value at risk, based on Cholesky decomposition, random variates, etc. This post I'm talking about is: Is ...
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30 views

Asian basket option variance reduction control variates monte carlo

I have priced an Asian put option with three underlying correlated stocks. Now I want to try to reduce the variance using control variates. I have found great ideas when there is one underlying (thus ...
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1answer
160 views

Simulating assets of different currencies

I have a situation as follows: One year call option on a Euro stock with a Euro denominated strike. Knock in feature as follows - The option can only pay out if the growth in the Euro stock over ...
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34 views

Determining the Relationship Between Monte Carlo Breaks and Model Volatility

I'm looking for a statistical test to understand the relationship (if any) between the model volatilities of a stochastic process, and the occurrence of 'break', defined as the instance when an ...
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81 views

Importance sampling procedure

I need someone to explain me the importance sampling method. There are several topics but the drift parameter $\theta$ when adjusting is never discussed. I read publications where $\theta$ was used ...
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0answers
108 views

Pricing a Path-Dependent Option with Heston

I want to price a path-dependent option (let's say for example an arithmetic average Asian option) under a Heston model. In a Black-Scholes setup, I use forward volatilities to do so. I want to apply ...
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0answers
124 views

Modelling VIX futures backwardation

I have VIX futures trading algorithm and would like to perform Monte-Carlo simulation of VIX and understand how my algorithm performs on each simulation. In this case, not only VIX should be modeled, ...
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112 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of correlated returns based on different frequencies

I am simulating through Monte Carlo, multivariate correlated returns of different products composing an Oil&Gas portfolio. The historical prices (from which I computed the log-returns) of the ...
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61 views

Optimal number of simulations for Monte Carlo [duplicate]

I am building a Monte Carlo simulation model for thousands of stocks. I am wondering is there a closed-form formula I can use to determine the optimal or at least minimum number of simulations need to ...
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72 views

Monte Carlo Pricer for Express Certificate delivers wrong price [Mathematica]

So I wanted to price the following Express Certificate with this specific payout structure: If S1 > S0 -> 105.25 , else -> If S2 > 0.95*S0 -> 110.5 , else -> If S3 > 0.9*S0 -> 115.75 , else -> If ...
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57 views

Low estimator when valuing american option using Broadie and Glassermann Monte Carlo tree with antithetic branching (R)

I've been looking into Monte Carlo methods for valuing american options. Now, I found an R code by Stefano M. Iacus that values the option using a tree (based on Broadie and Glassermann) without use ...
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119 views

The last step of the Longstaff-Schwartz method

I'm reading An analysis of the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for American option pricing, by Clement, Lamberton and Protter. They define the stopping times (top of page 4) $$ \tau_j^{[m]} = \begin{...
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96 views

Monte Carlo convergence sample size

I'm studying Monte Carlo analysis but I find very counter-intuitive the computation of the minimum sample size in order to reach a certain level of precision. As stated in ...
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40 views

Model for target zone exchange rates

I just found a stochastic model for target zone exchange rates $x_{t+1}=x_t+k+r(x_t-y)+ \tilde{\epsilon}$ where k is a drift term so equal $r-r_f$ r is lean againt the wind coefficient that ...

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