Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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How do you calculate value at risk on a portfolio of fixed income instruments

I'm curious about this question both for a parametric "Delta" style approach and a Monte Carlo full revaluation approach and I will lead one question into the next. Taking the "Delta" approach first. ...
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274 views

How does delta-gamma VaR work in practice and when can it be preferable to Monte-Carlo VaR?

So I will start off by just stating my understanding of the two methods through some examples and lead that into my question. Hopefully it is correct but if not then perhaps the answer to my question ...
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60 views

Generate Random Variable Using Acceptance Rejection Method

I have a question about acceptance rejection method and really appreciate your advice: Suppose we want to generate random variable that has probability density function $f(x)$, since we're using ...
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123 views

Basic Monte Carlo Present value calculation in R question

I'm self studying monte carlo applications with the application towards present values. However the values that I am using are of the uniform distribution variety with a pre defined minimum and ...
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59 views

Quantile with periodic investing

Short Version Can I get a quantile of such an expression? \begin{equation} \sum_{k=1}^{n} A_k\exp(\mathcal{N}(t_k\mu-\sigma\sqrt{t_k}/2,\sigma))) \end{equation} I know I can do it for one part of ...
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114 views

Simulating a stock price with Monte Carlo - Why my solution isn't equivalent to the author's

I am self-studying and I am working on the following problem: My solution is different and I'm arriving at a different answer: The parameters of the lognormal random variable $S_t/S_0$ are: $$m = \...
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2answers
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Stochastic Simulation vs percentile-to-percentile map

I was wondering why someone would go to the trouble to generate random variables in scenarios that are not path dependent. Let me provide a simple (although somewhat contrived) example. Lets say that ...
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877 views

How to price exotic options using Monte-Carlo?

I am actually trying to solve some exercise problem using Monte-Carlo and C++ for exotic options. Namely, the exotic options are geometric Asian options and discrete barrier option. It is claimed ...
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67 views

Monte Carlo price of European option on ZCB under Vasicek short rate

I'm trying to replicate the analytical result from the closed form Vasicek formula for European options on zero-coupon bonds using Monte-Carlo simulation. The interest rate paths I've simulated seem ...
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1answer
55 views

When pricing with Monte Carlo using market prices, should we use only the first price or all the prices to create the paths?

I have a vector $S=(S_0,S_1,...)$ of monthly oil spot prices and for each of them I have to compute, using Monte Carlo, the price of the forward contract having it as underlying asset. The equation ...
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200 views

How to perform Monte Carlo simulations to price a Forward contract under the Schwartz mean reverting model?

Objective: (1) Implement the Euler Explicit Method for solving the PDE for option prices under the Schwartz mean reverting model. (2) Compare with a Monte Carlo simulation. I'm stuck with point 1 (...
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72 views

Heston Discretization dt

I’m trying to figure out the discretization of the Heston model. In the choice of dt, I have seen several ways that people specify this number. Would it not just be ...
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Issue in Pricing Binary Options using Heaviside Function and QuantLib Python

I am trying to price binary option using MC Simulation and Python QuantLib Library. The price of the option matches with the Analytical Engine. However, I am not sure how to incorporate the Heaviside ...
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51 views

Issue in Pricing Barrier Options using MCBarrierEngine in QuantLib Python

Extremely sorry for bugging the community again, but I am struggling with finding proper documentation of QuantLib Python. I am trying to price Barrier Option using MC Simulation. Here is the code: <...
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Monte Carlo approach and methods for generating random returns

Recently I found myself reading more about Monte Carlo approach in m.v. portfolio optimization framework. I already discuss the topic on this forum (if interested please consider the following links - ...
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MonteCarlo Value at Risk for a bonds portfolio

As mentioned in the title, I am trying to calculate MC VaR for a portfolio consisting entirely of bonds. I already modeled the zero curve using Vasicek and Cox,Ingersoll & Ross models. Next steps ...
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47 views

How are non-equity derivatives handled in monte carlo Value at Risk simulations

If you have a portfolio of stocks and options it's straight forward enough to generate correlated stock paths and evaluate the positions at the end of the time horizon, but what do you do if your ...
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42 views

n-th to default swap with five reference names

I would like to price a n-th to default swap on a basket of 5 assets or reference names. I started to code in R and I put the routine hereby. my doubt is how to use the m = {m1,m2,m3,m4,m5} series ...
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106 views

why does monte carlo simulation become less accurate as volatility increases? [closed]

I simulated sample paths to approximate the price of a vanilla European call and then plotted a graph comparing this to the value achieved from the Black Scholes. Why do these values diverge as the ...
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147 views

Numerical simulation of Bates model (Monte Carlo)

I'm trying to build Bates model in Python! $$dS_{t} = \mu S_{t} dt + \sqrt{V_{t}}S_{t}dW_{t}^{1} + J_{t}dQ_{t}$$ $$dV_{t} = \kappa(\theta - V{t})dt + \eta \sqrt{V_{t}}dW_{t}^{2}$$ $$dW_{t}^{1}dW_{t}^{...
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1answer
110 views

Monte Carlo computational cost

Hello. I'm reading the above paper and I do not understand how they managed to solve eq (17.35) -- i've seen many papers skip through this as trivial and didn't bother to show the method to get there. ...
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1answer
208 views

Bayesian trade probability with factors

I have a strategy Y which is influenced by some factors X1, ..., Xn (for example asset volatility, distribution of macroeconomic factors). At moment t0 I have historical distribution(prior) of X1, ...,...
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1answer
188 views

Asset price simulation under Monte Carlo for option pricing using market data

I am trying to use Monte Carlo to price some exotic options. I have in mind to simulate asset prices under GBM (say S&P prices) using Monte Carlo and price the option accordingly from the payoffs ...
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371 views

Quasi Monte Carlo

I read several articles regarding quasi Monte Carlo algorithm with Sobol sequences but I still have questions. I implemented MC simulations with an ordinary random generator in matlab. I'd like to ...
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1answer
128 views

R script for Leasts Square Monte Carlo. How to explain vol and mean?

I am trying to do a Least Squares Monte Carlo in R. I don't know if it is the right place to post this, but I am out of options. I don't understand the following ...
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1answer
400 views

Simulation of arithmetic asian option

I'm trying to implement a monte carlo simulation for asian option pricing by using a higher accuracy schemes. But i don't know exactly how to simulate (2.6), someone can help me?
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624 views

Different Results Monte Carlo and Black-Scholes - where is my mistake?

as an exercise, I am trying to simulate the BS model via Monte Carlo Simulation in R to price a normal European-style call option. However, the code will give me results that are way higher than the ...
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592 views

CIR discretization Milstein scheme

The CIR model for spot rate $r_t$ is: $$dr_t=(\eta-\gamma r_t)dt+\sqrt{\alpha r_t} dW_t$$ where $\eta, \gamma, \alpha$ are constants. How to express this SDE in discrete form using Milstein scheme? ...
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638 views

Should I adjust historical data for dividends when estimating drift?

I'm building a Geometric Brownian Motion model which incorporates future dividends which vary over time. Since these should reduce stock price when paid, I can incorporate that into the model, however,...
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1answer
980 views

Pathwise Derivative To Estimate Delta

I am trying to estimate delta using the pathwise derivative method (Broadie and Glasserman (1996)) and I stuck on this part: Here is the other notation defined: Here is my C++ code I have written so ...
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1answer
5k views

Monte Carlo European Option Pricing

I've written code below that simulates GBM paths for determining the price of a given European call option and put option. The stock is priced at 150 USD, strike price at 155 USD, risk-free rate was ...
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1answer
365 views

Euler discretisation error for stochastic volatility model

Given the following model$$dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma(t,S_t)dW_t)$$ Using Monte Carlo Pricing method, I want to determine the price of the option. However I have been encountered the following problems: ...
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395 views

Black's model and Monte Carlo

It is well know that one uses the Black 76 model to price commodity derivatives. I would however like to perform a Monte Carlo simulation that ties back to this number. How would one go about this ...
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84 views

Asset Liability Management, probabilty of realising the paths in a Monte Carlo simulation

An ALM study produces several future real world interest paths, lets say the set consists of 5000 of such paths. What is the chance that one such path becomes reality? If in 50% of the paths the ...
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1answer
258 views

Projecting cash flows via Monte Carlo Simulation

I am looking to model the cash flows associated with a company as part of a Project finance experiment, where I got the idea from here. I'm looking to project cash flows for an Automotive company in ...
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1answer
170 views

Interpretation of vega out of BS formula

I am comparing Monte Carlo estimates of VaR (using importance sampling) under both the normal and student distributions. I am also considering risk factors other than log-prices; in particular, ...
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1answer
2k views

Compute cross-gamma

I am trying to use delta-gamma method with montecarlo simulations to calculate the VAR of a portfolio consisting in options and equities. To use the method I need to compute a gamma matrix, that has ...
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1answer
1k views

How do I simulate stock prices for a 10 asset portfolio, over a period of 10 years in MATLAB? [closed]

If I have given vectors for return and volatility (i.e. I have two 1x10 vectors), and I assume at first that their correlation is 0 (meaning my covariance-variance matrix is just diagonal), how do I ...
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how to get 3 month Forward rates from Hull white model simulation?

I implemented the Hull White one factor model in Monte Carlo simulation, and got the short rate on each node (time step =1month). my question is how to get the forward rate from the short rate? I am ...
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54 views

What is the difference between the geometric brownian motion and cumulative product of percentage returns?

I wonder why the following code: one using GBM and the other using cumulative product of normally distributed percentage returns slightly different values. ...
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70 views

Moment matching - variance reduction

Hey I try to use moment matching to reduce variance in MC simulations. But every trajectory has exactly the same terminal value. Can anyone tell me where I have mistake? That is my code: ...
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1answer
37 views

Low correlation problem in control variate method

I have been trying to use control variate method to reduce the variance of my Monte Carlo Simulation, however, the model is suffering from low correlation problem which makes the control variate ...
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1answer
40 views

Monte Carlo American Options Discrete Dividends

Built some tree methods to price american options with discrete dividends. But I have no way to really verify my work. Questions below: Does it make sense to build a Monte Carlo pricer to use as a ...
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38 views

Can the Heston model be used to price ANY option?

I've been reading through Heston's work and different Monte Carlo extensions of it and it seems very interestingly flexible. I've mainly used an application of it for pricing Memory Autocalls. Am I ...
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42 views

Simulation of price ratios

How to go about simulations of variables like price-to-book or dividend yield? Basically I would like to do a simulation based testing of an investing strategy (other than historical simulation). It’s ...
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34 views

Pricing deep OTM and short expiry options with Monte Carlo methods

Is there any good variance reduction technique to price with MC deep OTM and short tenor options under Local Volatility? Can importance sampling be used? I couldn’t find any reference which does not ...
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42 views

Simulating correlated stock paths to calculate VaR

So I wanted to generate a Monte Carlo simulation for two correlated assets to derive then the VaR as a quantile of the generated distributions. My code is the following, where the input parameters are ...
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36 views

Simulated VaR with differently distributed processes

I am attempting to calculate the one-month 95th and 99th percentile profits for a two-year portfolio of energy-generating assets over the next three months. This means that the calculation has two ...
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What does it mean to change the initial average value to asset an asian-american option?

I am currently trying to replicate the Longstaff (2001) paper where he explained the least-squared approach to value American options. In section 4, he explained how to apply this method to asset a ...
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28 views

Calibrating Short-Rate Models to Eurodollar Futures Prices via Monte Carlo

I have a short rate model specified in the risk-neutral measure $Q$ defined by the continuously compounded money market $\beta(t)=e^{\int_0^tr(u)du}$. I'd like to calibrate this model to a set of ...

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