Questions tagged [performance-evaluation]

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43 views

What is a cumulative return series?

I guess this is pretty easy but I cannot find a definition anywhere. I am trying to reproduce a paper and they say they use a cumulative return series at some point. Does anyone know exactly what this ...
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2answers
230 views

Multi-Period Contribution

I've read multiple research papers but can't find a good answer as to why multi-period contributions don't add up to the returns of a portfolio. I understand that arithmetic sums miss the compounding ...
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58 views

Assess forecasting performance of model in presence of bid-ask bounce

I have a forecasting model for 1-minute asset returns $y_t$ derived from trade data. (The assets are not very liquid.) The predictors of the model include the lagged target variable $y_{t-1}$, which ...
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35 views

How to calculate sharpe ratio for a strategy that has a stoploss and a profit exit condition?

I am working on a pair trading strategy, which either books a profit or holds the position till it hits stop loss over multiple days. I have months where I don't hit stop loss at all and this makes ...
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58 views

DGTW return adjustment

DGTW refers to the 1997 Daniel, Grinblatt, Titman, and Wermers paper available on Wermers' personal website. The general idea from what I have understood (please correct me if you think I'm wrong!) is ...
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39 views

Proper way to measure portfolio returns

I have a peculiar trading strategy and I can't seem to be able to find a proper way to measure its performance. Background: The strategy consists of buying certain stocks and then selling them in ...
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25 views

Funds Performance - Size Weighted (Negative Numbers)

I need to calculate the weighted median, average, sd of PE funds' returns. I weighted the sample according to the amount of committed capital of a fund, but I should consider negative products to ...
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23 views

Statistical testing of out-of-time portfolio performance (measured via a custom metric)

I'm testing (out-of-time) my machine learning (ML) based strategy against a strong benchmark. As a performance metric, I'm using a custom rolling metric $M(t)$ which takes into account the portfolio ...
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1answer
55 views

What are the eurozone bond indices? And where can I find them?

I am trying to calculate the performance of a portfolio of fixed-income funds domiciled and operating exclusively in Europe through a multi-factor model. To do this I need historical data of several ...
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1answer
101 views

Are there better performance measures for mean-reverting vs trend-following trading strategies?

The Sharpe ratio is often used as measure to assess risk-adjusted returns of trading strategies. However, there are also other measures that can be used to assess risk-adjusted returns like the ...
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57 views

What is a proper way to evaluate a backtested strategy if its trading asset has a strong trend?

I backtested a strategy that trades bitcoin, but I'm not sure if it's worth doing it because of the recent strong trend of bitcoin. The buy-and-hold has a better return, Sharpe ratio of the strategy ...
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31 views

Possible survivorship bias

I am quite new to studying finance so apologies if this turns out to be a trivial question. I am writing my first essay where I want to test a value strategy from 2009-2019 by yearly ranking of the ...
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65 views

Is “Information Coefficient” correlation or rank correlation?

From the textbook, information coefficient (IC) is a measure of the depth of an active manager’s skill. On a more formal basis, IC measures the “correlation” between actual returns and those predicted ...
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33 views

Performance Attribution - changing weights

I would appreciate it if someone could help me tackle this problem. I have daily data of returns for my portfolio, daily weights accounting for various portfolio changes. Could someone explain how I ...
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124 views

How is the total return of an alpha strategy being calculated during backtesting?

I am using a quant simulation platform and I have chosen a formulaic alpha to be used. Now the platform is backtesting and displaying the total return of the alpha strategy over 12 years. The trading ...
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21 views

Performance metric that integrates market volatility?

Is there a performance metric like Sharpe that takes into account the volatility of the current market instead of only the volatility of the fund? I believe investors may have different degrees of ...
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41 views

Mathematical proof of out-of-sample disappointment in portfolio performance being a function of a portfolio's variance

The minimum-variance portfolio is considered more optimal than the maximum Sharpe ratio (tangency) portfolio on the grounds that its in-sample performance is less likely to disappoint out-of-sample. ...
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31 views

Performance return of holdings if you know the returns of top10 holdings?

I think this is a simple question, but struggling to get my head around it. There is a fund that showcases its top 10 holdings and their respective weights. I want to infer the performance of the rest ...
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44 views

internal rate of return ((M/X)IRR ?) of a fund

I have the following data for a fund. The contributions come from the LPs (i.e., the investors invest more in the fund, or withdraw money from the fund), MV stands for market value. The timing is not ...
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123 views

Modigliani Squared (M2) and negative fund returns

I often see it quoted that the M2 measure offers an advantage over the sharpe, as sharpe is 'difficult to interpret' for negative returns. eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani_risk-...
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32 views

Reliable metric to predict out of sample performance of trading strategy

How can one estimate the performance of a trading strategy on out of sample dataset? Yes, the good old model selection problem. Everyone knows sharpe ratio of your in-sample dataset by itself is a ...
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2answers
60 views

Performance measurement

When I regress the excess performance of a portfolio on the MKT Factor using daily data. I get a Beta of 0.95 and an alpha of 0.00011 that I annualize *252 = 2.77% I know that the annualized return of ...
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38 views

Is there a performance measure for the entire efficient frontier?

The Sharpe ratio is an example of a performance measure for individual mean-variance efficient portfolios, regardless if they maximize the Sharpe ratio or not. The efficient frontier, however, ...
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1answer
573 views

How to calculate a position's contribution to its portfolio's tracking error?

Say we have assets X (with weight $w_a$) and Y (with weight $w_y$) in a portfolio. X and B returns are correlated: $Cov(R_x, R_y)\neq 0$. The portfolio's tracking error is: $std(R_p - R_b) = std((w_x*(...
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2answers
243 views

Can alpha be positive if cumulative returns underperform the benchmark?

According to my portfolio analysis program (pyfolio), the alpha of the following strategy is .17 (I am assuming 17%). [Based on pyfolio documentation, alpha here is the "annualized alpha".] ...
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27 views

How to Compute the Return for a Series of Investments with Payouts?

I am looking for a metric to track the performance of investments in a security over time. I know what I have in mind but I am not sure how to map it onto a known metric. I want to answer the ...
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151 views

May Calmar ratio be considered to satisfy monotonicity?

We have the following definitions $\text{Gain-loss ratio} = \frac{E[X^+]}{|E[X^-]|}=\frac{E[X^+]}{-E[X^-]}=\frac{E[X]}{-E[X^-]}+1$; where $X$ are the returns, $E[X^+]$ is the expected gain, i.e. $E[X|...
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2answers
104 views

Definition of drawdown

Say I am considering the entire time horizon, is max drawdown what I've drawn in blue, or what's in purple? Likewise, how about the current drawdown for the period in black (in practice, I am asked ...
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50 views

How do Hedge Funds account for returns from short selling?

I was going over my notes from an Asset Pricing module yesterday and came across something interesting I hadn't thought about in a while. It was how Hedge Funds can over inflate their performance by ...
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3answers
445 views

CAPM and Beta: problem with regression (Beta is too low yet statistically significant?)

I have two time series of daily return calculated as $\frac{Price_{t}}{Price_{t-1}} -1$. One is the daily returns of a portfolio, the other the daily returns of the index (MSCI World). Period is 2020 ...
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3answers
510 views

Daily to Monthly Performance Attribution - Getting Effects to equal the Excess Return

I am building a performance attribution tool on Python to help us understand the asset allocation, stock selection effects of our fund. We are using daily price data for each component within the ...
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1answer
421 views

Why use square root of companies market cap in the WLS matrix

When doing a regression based performance attribution I see that people normally use WLS. So that both our independent and dependent variables are multiplied by our WLS matrix, which is a diagonal ...
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134 views

What are the best metrics to evaluate an ML algo backtest, other than the nominal returns?

I have designed an algorithm that uses Support Vector Machines to classify the next day's price movement for several prominent cryptocurrencies on a ...
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51 views

Performance attribution and monthly rebalance: Is a month enough data to calculate Beta and Alpha?

A portfolio is built systematically by calculating scores and rebalanced each month to invest only in the 80 best scores. Scores change frequently and therefore the portfolio changes each month, ...
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1answer
64 views

Highest asset allocation contribution to the fund’s performance

I am preparing for 2020 May FRM II test and will appreciate any explanation for this question: In terms of asset allocation contribution, why is real estate made the highest asset allocation ...
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2answers
116 views

Outperform the market with a Beta lower than 1, is it possible? [closed]

I have a portfolio which seems to have outperformed the benchmark for the past 2 years however the risk system I use advises that using recent past data (lookback period of 2 years) the Beta to this ...
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31 views

Practical definition of stock rating scores

I am trying to understand the practical quantitative definitions of the stock scoring system (1-5) that can be commonly found in sell-side analyst predictions. For instance, a score of 3 suggests ...
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0answers
41 views

Relation between Sharpe ratio and amount of capital

In the book Quantitative trading by Ernest P. Chan, in one of the example we compute the Sharpe ratio of long-short strategy and one step perplexes me: In column L, compute the net returns for ...
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1answer
187 views

Alternative relative performance measure to Sharpe ratio for non-IID return

The Sharpe ratio is often used to compare the relative performance of portfolios despite its IID-assumption for the returns being violated. I can find ample warnings about the consequences of ...
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0answers
140 views

How to conduct an event-study for a single index (i.e the DJIA) with multiple events

I am a postgraduate student writing my thesis. I am somewhat a novice in the field I have chosen to study, however this has undoubtedly broadened my horizons. I am attempting to evaluate the impact of ...
2
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1answer
42 views

Composite portfolio performance

I'm trying to calculate the combined performance of two portfolios, but keep getting a nonsensical result. I have a Fixed Income & Equity portfolio and the GIPS quarterly performance number from ...
2
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1answer
59 views

ETF performance/returns

I was going over some ETF return data on yahoo finance and encountered some numbers that did not make sense to me. The image below shows a ytd return of 17.94% and 13.52%. I checked ETF.com and ETFdb ...
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833 views

How to calculate the Maximum Drawdown for a portfolio in MATLAB?

I would like to verify my approach of calculating the Maximum Drawdown for a portfolio in MATLAB. I've got a vector of returns for the portfolio, to which I add 1 for every return. Afterwards I ...
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1answer
143 views

How to calculate the daily rate of return for an actively traded account

I have a spot currency exchange account where the base currency is USD and where I can deposit and/or withdraw money from the account in any currency at any point in time. I can also exchange any ...
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1answer
587 views

How to compute cumulative performance of a portfolio with two equities?

I have a time series of adjusted returns for two companies, A and B. I have created a portfolio consisting of these two time series with equal weighting (sum of weights must equal 1): $w_a = w_b=0.5$...
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4answers
172 views

How likely it is that a strategy profits are explained by luck?

I want to evaluate a trading strategy. My goal is not to compare it with other strategies, but rather to determine how likely it is that the profits are generated from the strategy itself rather than ...
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2answers
343 views

P&L Calculation of Option Strategy

I have designed a call writing option strategy, where I am rolling the options upon expiry, i.e., my portfolio consists of one short call position at any given time. I have a time series of the value ...
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3answers
4k views

Is there a python library to generate performance metrics from returns of the strategy?

I am backtesting a strategy and have data generated from the returns of the strategy. Now I need performance metrics like maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, Treynor measure etc., I am writing functions ...
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1answer
505 views

Annualising Data

I have a 3 year performance track record of monthly returns. I am trying to calculate the Sortino Ratio, Information Ratio, Treynor index etc. In calculating the Sharpe Ratio I have multiplied the ...
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2answers
654 views

performance measure using pnl series

I have a time series of \$pnl of a strategy and nothing else. Can i use it to come up with some sort of a performance measure adjusted for risk? Is $$ \frac{average(\$pnl)} {sigma(\$pnl)}$$ ok to use ...