Questions tagged [probability]

A probability expresses quantitatively how likely an event is to occur. We often encounter probabilities as conditional probabilities which express how likely an event is to occur in light of certain (given) information.

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26 views

What day of a week should we pick something to happen to minimize it happening on the fourth business day of the month?

This is an extension of problem 3.16 in Mark Joshi's book. My answer is to avoid Thursday, and all other weekdays are equally good. The probability that the fourth business day is Thursday is 3/7 (...
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129 views

Optimal Strategy in 3 Dice Game

In a recent interview I received the following question (an optimisation/strategy game)...which left me a bit stumped. The rules of play, you start with 0 points, then: Roll three fair six-sided dice;...
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Why are prediction markets based on logarithms when a linear solution can suffice?

For example, take a binary outcome; A coin toss, heads or tails. If heads, then those that picked heads receive \$1 and tails receive \$0. To quote the prices for each bet Hanson's LMSR uses ...
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Risk neutral probabilities in binomial option pricing with discrete dividends — whose argument is correct?

In trying to discover more about pricing American options with dividend payouts, I found the the post linked here. I notice two disagreeing answers when it comes to determining the replicating ...
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Value the claim $(X-K)1_{X>K}1_{L<Y<U}$

Consider two correlated assets $X$ and $Y$ with marginals $f_X$ and $f_Y$ and linear correlation coefficient $\rho$. Assume a Gaussian copula, $C_{X,Y}(x,y,\rho)$, can approximate the joint CDF well ...
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35 views

Weighted and Probability Graph

I have a simple markov chain with A, B and C states. For each state I have a probability and beyond that, a value. So, for each state transition I have two informations: the probability of the ...
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81 views

Interpretation of Value at Risk

Let $X$ be a Loss random variable (Positive values of X represents Losses) and let $p \in (0,1)$. I know that the Value at Risk at level $p$ of $X$ is defined as: $$VaR_p(X) = inf{\{x \in \mathbb{R} : ...
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Given the density function of $S^{1}$ in one-period model, find the risk-neutral measure

Consider the one period market model $\left(\overline{\pi},\overline{S}\right)$ consisting of a risk-free asset $\left(\pi^{0},S^{0}\right)=(1,1+r)$ and a risky $\left(\pi^{1},S^{1}\right)$ Let $ r &...
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69 views

Martingale stochastic processes

Does anyone know how to do this question? A player whose initial holding is $N$ bets 1 on each game of a series of independent identical parts. He loses his bet whether he loses or he wins but, if he ...
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62 views

Physical Probability Measure vs. Risk Free Probability Measure (State Contigent Claims)

currently I am working on a problem regarding state contingent claims. I have 5 securities (one of the security is a risk-free security) and in the next period, these securities will end up in one of ...
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Expected Loss on a Portfolio, which contains an asset and a default protection contract, due to credit defaults

A portfolio consists of one (long) 100 million asset and a default protection contract on this asset. The probability of default over the next year is 10% for the asset, 20% for the counterparty that ...
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Calculation Expecting Credit Loss from a Portfolio

I have the following question: An investor holds a portfolio of 50 million dollars. This portfolio consists of 'A' rated bonds (30 million dollars) and 'BBB' rated bonds (20 million dollars). Assume ...
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Calculating the cumulative probability of default from recovery rate, yield and coupon rate

I have the following details: A 10-year U.S.Treasury strip has a yield of 6% and a 10-year zero issued by XYZ Inc, rated A by S&P and Moody's, has 7% (semi-annual compounding). Assuming a recovery ...
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107 views

Is the portfolio return distribution a weighted combination of individual asset return distributions?

We know that the portfolio expected return is a weighted sum of the individual assets' expected returns (asset means). We also know that the portfolio variance is a weighted combination of the ...
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EMM, Supremum and Expectation

I asked this question on MSE recently. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3922347/supremum-and-expectation I want to prove this when $\mathcal{M}$ is a set of equivalent martingale measure. ...
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124 views

What's the interpretation of the probability of default implied from CDS spreads?

What's the time horizon of the probability of default implied from a CDS spread? Given CDS = PD*(1-R), if I use a 5yr CDS spread in the formula, is the implied PD the probability that that name ...
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327 views

Proving $\mathbb{P}(S_t<0|S_0=s_0)=0$ for Geometric BM

I am trying to prove that for the geometric Brownian motion of a stock $\textrm{d}S_t=\mu S_t\textrm{d}t+\sigma S_t\textrm{d}B_t$ with strictly positive constants $\mu$ and $\sigma$ and and $S_0=s_0&...
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Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders - Back, Chao and Willard

The following assumptions are part of the paper of Back, Chao and Willard and I can not solve for the statistic that is denoted as $\phi$ in the sequel. I would be glad if anyone could help me. Below ...
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Concentration of measure phenomena in financial mathematics

Concentration of measure is a small area of statistics and probability theory that proved inequalities regarding the statistical properties of sets of random variables that exclude one of those random ...
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1answer
71 views

sub-Gaussian random variables in financial economics

Unlike financial time series that typically possess fat tails, sub-Gaussian random variables have strong decay in the tails of their distribution. do sub-Gaussian random variables or processes appear ...
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Escape Dynamics in financial economics or time series

These slides describe escape dynamics to be a type of, or having some relation to, rare event(s). Black swan events in business cycles was also included under the definition of rare events. My guess ...
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135 views

Large deviations theory in finance

In probability theory, the theory of large deviations concerns the asymptotic behavior of remote tails of sequences of probability distributions. A related post says: Large deviations theory is ...
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Does the Shannon entropy of stock returns change over time?

Shannon entropy, $H(X) = -\sum_{i=1}^n p(x) \ln p(x)$ is a probabilistic measure of randomness or disorder within a random variable's probability distribution or histogram. If we take rolling window ...
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Characteristic function of time-changed Levy processes

Let $X_t$ be a Levy process, and $Y_t$ be a subordinator i.e. process with nondecreasing trajectories. I have to find characteristic function of $X_{Y_t}$. I know that I have to calculate: $$E[e^{iuX_{...
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Proof of existence of one only martingale measure

I know that: Hypothesis 1 (Girsanov Theorem) Let $\theta=\begin{Bmatrix} \theta_t \end{Bmatrix}_{t\in [0,T]}$ be a square-integrable and $\Im_t$-adapted process such that $\mathbb{E}[e^{\frac{1}{2}\...
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Recognizing a Martingale

Under which conditions is the stochastic process $\{X_t\}_{t=0,1,...,T}$ a martingale? Demonstrate and explain clearly for each case below. If it is not necessarily a martingale, provide a ...
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317 views

Tactical Investment Algorithms

I am reading paper "Tactical Investment Algorithms" (link) (NOTE: you can download the paper without registration, just press "Download" and then "Download without ...
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168 views

Do portfolio mean and portfolio variance have probability distributions?

If $X$ is a $T\times N$ matrix of multivariate asset returns, and $w$ is some optimal portfolio weight vector, then the portfolio return series is $r_p = X w \in\mathbb{R}^{T}$. This return series ...
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Link between cumulants and kurtosis

Hey in "Financial modelling with Jump processes" by Cont and Tankov is written that kurtosis of distribution of random variable $X$ is equal to $\frac{c_4(X)}{c_2(X)^2}$ where $c_n$ denotes $...
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98 views

Does Value-at-Risk have any mathematical equivalence to copulas?

Portfolio Value-at-Risk estimated using the copula approach often just means generating artificial data sampled from a parametric copula('s joint multivariate distribution) as a model fit over the ...
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What is the distribution of the risk-free asset?

If the risk-free asset has a volatility of $0$, therefore making its mean equal to the risk-free rate, $r_f$, does this mean that it has no probability distribution, and therefore there is no reason ...
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$\frac{\partial}{\partial a} E [\sqrt{a+X} ]$, $X > 0$ a.s., $a \geq 0$

Although maybe this could have been posted at cross-validated, I actually have a financial application in mind. Problem: There is a very elementary mistake somewhere, but I can't see it: Let $X$ be a ...
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38 views

Density of a portfolio's returns is the weighted average of asset distributions?

The expected return of a portfolio can be formulated as a weighted average of the constituent assets' returns: $$r_p = w_1 r_1 + w_2 r_2 + \dots + w_N r_N + \epsilon$$ Does it also follow that the ...
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1answer
172 views

Why do cumulative returns have a bimodal distribution?

Regular returns (log-differenced prices) have statistical distributions that are bell-shaped and unimodal (one mode/peak) despite being non-normal and fat-tailed. Cumulative returns, on the other hand,...
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76 views

A model for probability of credit rating change for a single issuer

I am looking to model the probability of a single issuer upgrading or downgrading it's credit rating at some time using historical data. I have done research and everything I have found so far are for ...
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1answer
104 views

Bayesian analysis in R for low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
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129 views

How to test signifcance of a sharpe ratio

Let say you have measured a Sharpe Ratio of $S^*$. What is the simplest way (ie no fancy distributions) to do a hypothesis that this is different from $0$? So $H_0: \text{ The sharpe ratio is equal ...
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What is the meaning of this notation, D lag t?

I'm reading the book Financial Markets Under the Microscope to study market microstructure. There is a notation that I could not understand. What is the meaning of D here? It is not used in the text ...
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Is option surface same as future price probability surface?

Let's consider the Option Chain for the Stock. There are two 3D surfaces representing the probability of the future stock price and the option prices. I wonder if they are representing the same thing? ...
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Empirical Probability Distribution

I have a dataset with 3.000 observation (price of an asset). I want to study the empirical distribution of the logRet of that time series. How can I do it in Excel? if not possible to do it in Excel, ...
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Geometric brownian motion and probabilities

A stock's price movement is described by the equations $dS_t=0.02S_tdt+0.25S_tdW_t$ and $S_0=100$. An investor buys a call option on said stock with a strike price $K=95$ which expires in $T=2$ years. ...
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CAPM Model, is this exercise done correctly?

Hey i need to know if the task is done correctly, please help :) Standard deviation of the rate of return on the market portfolio is equal to $\sigma_{MP}=1,5\%=\frac{15}{1000}$. I have portoflio ...
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Measure for probabilities inferred from prices of derivatives on non-traded random variables?

Are probabilities of certain events (e.g. amount of rainfall over a period, probability of a Fed rate hike) inferred from derivatives on non-tradeable random variables (e.g. Weather Futures, Fed Funds ...
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Call Probability of European callable IRS

When pricing a callable IRS (say only one call date) with a diffusion model (e.g. HW 1F) with a Montecarlo resolution, one can get the call probability on the call date versus maturing the date (which ...
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Radon-Nikodim Derivative at time 0

I have a very basic question about filtrations and Radon-Nikodym derivatives. I am reading the Andersen-Piterbarg, more in particular Eq. (1.12). They define the process $\zeta(t) = E^P_t[\frac{dQ}{dP}...
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Interpreting Autocorrelation as probability

I was recently asked: Given a random time series of 1s and -1s. Eg of a sample = [1, 1, 1, -1, -1, 1, -1,..]. The autocorrelation of this series is Z. What can you say about the probability of a 1(or ...
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Specify user-defined distribution for multivariate distribution in copula R package

For the copula R package, the function Mvdc allows the margins to be user-defined. ...
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64 views

Probability and random walk

Let's says i have 10 years of daily prices on a stock ABC. I do some analysis and I realise that, for example, if the stock increases 5 days in a row (close > open), 75% of the time, the 6th day will ...
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137 views

What is the probability of a lookback option ending in the money (CRR-model)

I would like to compute the probability that a certain lookback option ends in the money, let's say that the option has the following payoff $h_N=\max\left\{0,K-\min\{S_1,...,S_N\}\right\} $ where $K$ ...
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247 views

Throwing a dice and risk neutral probability

Consider the game of throwing a "fair" dice. Not sure if the answer is obvious but is there any proof (e.g. replication argument) that under the risk neutral measure the probability of any outcome is ...

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