Questions tagged [quant-trading-strategies]

Quantitative trading strategies use quantitative signals and a set of predefined systematic rules to make trading decisions. Strategies operate within parameters based on historical analysis (backtesting) and real world market studies (forward testing). Strategies may be executed manually (by a human trader) or automatically (by a computer).

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28 views

What is the probability of touching point A first?

The probability of a stock touching a point A which is below the current spot price is 35%, and the probability of the stock touching a point B which is above the current spot price is 20%. How can I ...
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95 views

How to incorporate momentum in Ornstein Uhlenbeck to capture overshooting in financial markets?

In modelling asset prices, it is a good idea to model it using a fair value or target price concept. Recently Carr & Prado explored this idea to find optimal stop loss/take profit levels when the ...
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What are some ways to weight the basket of securities in high frequency setting?

I'm trying to build a basket of closely related assets $\{S_1, \dots, S_N\}$ that have no general index such as S&P500 and are represented in the high frequency setting. The general idea is to ...
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46 views

How to conduct statistical test to see if certain factors impact trading streategy

Since the seminal paper by Fama and French(1993) that uses size, market and value factors to explain extra market returns on the equity market, people have conducted tons of research on equity factor ...
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1answer
72 views

Historical Options data

Are there any good sources where I can obtain daily historical options data (strike price, expiration dates, bid/ask spread, etc). I understand that this type of data is very hard to come by and ...
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1answer
122 views

Leakage and bias in XGBoost trading strategy

I apologize for my persistence, i'm on a course of study and doubts increase every day. My goal is "just" to code a profitable forex trading strategy with machine learning. I'm trying to ...
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106 views
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39 views

Quantifying accuracy of candlestick OHLC patterns

Is there any way of quantifying the candlestick OHLC patterns? There are lots of patterns such as morning star, evening star and so on, but I have not found any statistics on how often these work out ...
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1answer
111 views

How do you hedge your inventory when doing arbitrage?

Say I want to do arbitrage between Exchange A and Exchange B on USD/AAPL. This requires that I hold equal parts USD and AAPL. I don't want exposure to the movement in AAPL. How do I hedge my AAPL ...
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115 views

Steps to fit a Machine learning model for prediction of up and down market movement

I have around 5 years of data of an index containing many features on a daily basis. I want to classify whether the index will move up or down the next trading day (up or down movement is determined ...
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2answers
259 views

What kind of data cleansing/scrubbing are hedge funds doing?

It's a well-known fact that several hedge funds have a handful of PhDs just doing data cleansing. All day. Every day. What kind of data cleansing are they actually doing? Is it really that difficult? ...
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42 views

increasing leverage does not increase MDD(maximal draw down) proportionally?

I thought increasing leverage by x times will increase mdd x times. But it actually increases mdd by y which is smaller than x. Is it always the case? If so, because leverage increases compound ...
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193 views

Known mispricing opportunities only available for small traders

Warren Buffett has famously said that he could generate 50% annual returns if he was working with small sums of money. (He cannot move the needle enough now with large amounts of capital). Perhaps two ...
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How are cryptography and speech recognition technology applied to forecasting financial markets?

One of the answers to my previous question regarding the strategy of Renaissance Technologies, there was a reference to The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly ...
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Calculating true value of a stock given the order-book and recent trades

I'm trying to calculate the 'true value' of a stock listed on an exchange. I have access to the limit order-book (containing all bid/ask quotes) and also all trades which have taken place (which ...
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2answers
1k views

Historical tick data level 1 and level 2

I am a software engineer and want to run some simulation of over historical market data . I am pretty new to finance and trading world. To automate some of my strategies I would like to run some back ...
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1answer
104 views

Are there better performance measures for mean-reverting vs trend-following trading strategies?

The Sharpe ratio is often used as measure to assess risk-adjusted returns of trading strategies. However, there are also other measures that can be used to assess risk-adjusted returns like the ...
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1answer
170 views

What are the most common ways that quantitative funds construct industry/style-neutral factor portfolios?

For instance, consider momentum strategies. Naive portfolio construction will likely load on large style/industry return components, which increases portfolio risk dramatically. How do quant funds ...
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38 views

Calculation of Long-Short-Portfolio returns for different holding periods

I have monthly stock returns I want to invest in according to my trading signals. Now I want to figure out the optimal holding period of the long-short-positions. (The same time for both positions). I ...
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80 views

Does time remaining matter in NO Touch-ONE Touch probabilities?

I asked a question some days back and got an answer which I understand and make sense: Probability of touching short call strike and not touching touching short put strike of a short strangle? However,...
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210 views

evaluating garch models

I used ugarchroll to backtest my garch model on S&P returns this is my code ...
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79 views

How to "best" exit multiple trades?

Let say I have N opened trades (N = s + b) that are partialy hedged, and paritaly not. In general s != b. Some of them are market sell orders (s), and the rest of them are market buy orders (b). They ...
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1answer
144 views

Barriers on structured notes

I asked a question here: Structuring and Customization Thanks to all the contributors. However, I now have a follow-up question. I would like to buy barrier options and I was informed from that post ...
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1answer
147 views

How does a trader choose how to size his limit order?

Say Bob wants to buy \$30 million worth of APPL stock at a price of \$130. He decides to use a limit order. But posting a $30 million limit order would drive the price up and prevent him from being ...
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1answer
63 views

why am I seeing a value error? adv_fml. lopez de prado

This code is a snippet from Lopez De Prado Advances in Financial Machine Learning page 44 ...
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1answer
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106 views

How to compute NPV of Latin American swap CLP-TNA (chilean) using quantlib?

I am trying to value the Latin Americans swaps. But CLP-TNA valuation is far off from the actual valuation. Please suggest, what I am missing in below methodology to compute NPV. ...
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1answer
93 views

Why not calculate Kelly using semivariance? As w Sortino

Kelly is calculated as mu / sigma^2. If we remove our highest performing returns from our calculations this actually increases our Kelly leverage, which does not make sense to me. A less profitable ...
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2answers
111 views

One touch UP no touch DOWN, One touch DOWN no touch UP [closed]

I was reading about exotic options and I came across something new. One touch down no touch up option and the other one I saw was One touch up no touch down option. I would like to understand how it ...
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135 views

Questions regarding a “lite/kindergarten” Barbell investement strategy implementation

The idea for this question is more or less taken from a slight hint regarding how Universa Investments L.P. functions from Taleb's Antifragile (obviously the real case is far more complex but this is ...
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1answer
179 views

Question about calendar spread mean-reversion strategy

I'm excited to ask my first question here! I'll try to describe the mean-reversion strategy with some background, then explain what I couldn't understand. The strategy is described in Earnest Chan's ...
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60 views

How to extract informative value from correlations of assets? Subadditivity of correlation calculation an issue

I was reading Nassim Taleb's Paper: Fooled by Correlation and found it very informative. I had always struggled with finding value in correlation in Finance, especially seeing a lot of bad ...
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1answer
79 views

How to choose a stock? [closed]

So far, I have only been working on systems that track numerous stocks and evaluate which present the best opportunities at a given time. I have grown curious about building a day-trading system that ...
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3answers
625 views

If 90% of retail traders lose money, doesn’t that mean price movements are not random?

If 90% of retail traders are said to loose money, which trade in the short term, doesn’t that mean price movements are not random? My reasoning is that if short term price fluctuations were ...
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2answers
495 views

What is the reason for using log prices in Pairs Trading (Cointegration)?

I was wondering, why some of the research papers on pairs trading (using the cointegration approach) are using log prices to determine the spread of a pair? Why are they not simply using regular ...
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31 views

How can one, from regular predictions of high & low prices of a security, their variances and error covariance, construct a trading strategy?

Suppose I have an algorithm that provides a prediction of the daily high and low of some security n periods in the future, a confidence interval for each of these predictions, and the correlation ...
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65 views

Sharpe ratio differs from Tradingview

I tried to backtest a simple strategy on TradingView, it made 6 trades with these results: Now I want to calculate Sharpe ratio using definition provided by TradingView. So, my daily returns(...
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70 views

Expected value of P&L based on option prices

How can we compute the expected value of P&L assuming the option price is given? Do we need to have more information to calculate P&L?
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40 views

Calculating performance decay of a strategy

Came across this thread which basically advises t-test for difference in means across periods to calculate whether our edge is deteriorating. The catch being that this test will probably not be ...
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2answers
253 views

Can alpha be positive if cumulative returns underperform the benchmark?

According to my portfolio analysis program (pyfolio), the alpha of the following strategy is .17 (I am assuming 17%). [Based on pyfolio documentation, alpha here is the "annualized alpha".] ...
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75 views

How to Calculate JDK RS Ratio of a brazilian stock

I'm trying to calculate JDK - RS Ratio using python, however it seems it is not working well. These are some articles that i've found on the internet, concerning JDK RS Ratio: How to calculate the JdK ...
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3answers
7k views

Papers about backtesting option trading strategies

I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
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3answers
3k views

backtesting options strategies in R

I would like to backtest an options strategy in R. I require the ability to delta hedge and rebalance to options in the portfolio at different frequencies (daily, monthly,etc.) What packages are the ...
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57 views

Cyclic analysis for trading signal generation

I would like to build trading signals using cyclic analysis in order to obtain a forecast afterwards. I had a look in literature and Hurst analysis, Fourier, etc, are used However, I am struggling to ...
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2answers
242 views

Automatic trading strategies - what are benchmarks for PL on serious backtesting?

There are plenty books and sites which offer automatic trading strategies (robots) and claim they are very profitable. On the other hand many people do not believe in such things, saying that: if ...
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5answers
228 views

Sending order to Forex or Stocks from Python strategy

I have my own strategy developed in Python. But I couldn't find a reliable method to send, close, and modify orders using Python. Are there any tools that help order management using Python? I also ...
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114 views

Random Walk Theory vs. Quant Trading

I am quite new to random walk theory so please excuse my rather simply put question but I am wondering how can quant trading desks and other algorithmic trading firms exist if there is the random walk ...
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38 views

How to calculate the longest expected losing streak for a system that trades all the index members simultaneously?

For a trading system that trades only one security we can easily compute the longest expected losing streak using this formula: where: n is the number of trades, ln is natural logarithm, P is the ...
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122 views

Reading Recommendations - Quantitative Investment Strategies from a "genuine" quant viewpoint

I recently stumbled the lecture notes of Prof. Avellaneda on Quantitative Investment Strategies (near the bottom of this page). The exposition is highly structured and rigorous, but I am missing in ...
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38 views

How do I calculate inflation adjusted CAGR?

I'm running backtests with monthly data going back to the 1920's and I'd like to compare different strategies using inflation adjusted CAGR. But I don't know how to calculate it. Would any of these ...

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