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Questions tagged [real-world-measure]

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4
votes
1answer
69 views

Uniqueness of Risk-neutral measure: Probabilistic view

Suppose we are working on the Black and Scholes Framework. There are only two assets, the risk-less bank account and a stock. The discounted process is a GBM under the physical measure with drift term ...
1
vote
1answer
119 views

Confusion regarding the risk neutral and physical measures

I may be confused. I am looking at the risk neutral vs. physical measures. We know that knowing the short interest rate stochastic process $r$, a bond maturing at time $T$ can be considered as a ...
1
vote
1answer
115 views

Vasicek short rate: Risk-neutral measure into real-world measure

I consider the Vasicek model under the risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$: $$ dr_t=\kappa(\theta−r_t) dt+\sigma dW^{\mathbb{Q}}_t.$$ I have already determined $$\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{−\int\...
3
votes
0answers
95 views

Equivalent martingale measure in time changed Levy models

I am investigating time changed Levy models. As far as I have seen, these models are usually directly described under the risk neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$. However, I'm interested in first modelling ...
0
votes
2answers
182 views

Stock forward price argument

Hi I am strangling to understand where is the mistake with the following strategy. Can anyone help me with the following argument? Assuming a stock price follows geometric Brownian motion then the ...
3
votes
0answers
53 views

Change of measure when calibrating real-world dynamics

If I want to simulate a process (say, a set of forward rates) under a real-world measure, can I use option prices / implied vols to calibrate some of the parameters and do I need to change the measure ...
7
votes
2answers
294 views

What is the numeraire for the real world measure $\mathbb{P}$?

We know the numeraires for the forward measure, the risk-neutral measure, etc. What is the numeraire for the real world measure $\mathbb{P}$?
27
votes
6answers
6k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...