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Questions tagged [real-world-measure]

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2
votes
2answers
42 views

Are all changes of measures for continuous diffusion processes given by the change of drift?

In elementary discussions on change of measure for geometric Brownian motion, one often find statements like "change of measure = change of drift". Given a general continuous diffusion process of the ...
2
votes
1answer
66 views

Estimation of Radon–Nikodym derivative from hisotrical returns and option price data

Say we have an estimate of empirical density function $f^{\mathbb{P}}_S(s)$ of historical log-returns on a stock $S$ over a 30-day period under the real-world objective measure $\mathbb{P}$. We also ...
4
votes
1answer
96 views

Uniqueness of Risk-neutral measure: Probabilistic view

Suppose we are working on the Black and Scholes Framework. There are only two assets, the risk-less bank account and a stock. The discounted process is a GBM under the physical measure with drift term ...
1
vote
1answer
163 views

Confusion regarding the risk neutral and physical measures

I may be confused. I am looking at the risk neutral vs. physical measures. We know that knowing the short interest rate stochastic process $r$, a bond maturing at time $T$ can be considered as a ...
1
vote
1answer
160 views

Vasicek short rate: Risk-neutral measure into real-world measure

I consider the Vasicek model under the risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$: $$ dr_t=\kappa(\theta−r_t) dt+\sigma dW^{\mathbb{Q}}_t.$$ I have already determined $$\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{−\int\...
3
votes
0answers
96 views

Equivalent martingale measure in time changed Levy models

I am investigating time changed Levy models. As far as I have seen, these models are usually directly described under the risk neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$. However, I'm interested in first modelling ...
0
votes
2answers
185 views

Stock forward price argument

Hi I am strangling to understand where is the mistake with the following strategy. Can anyone help me with the following argument? Assuming a stock price follows geometric Brownian motion then the ...
3
votes
0answers
66 views

Change of measure when calibrating real-world dynamics

If I want to simulate a process (say, a set of forward rates) under a real-world measure, can I use option prices / implied vols to calibrate some of the parameters and do I need to change the measure ...
7
votes
2answers
337 views

What is the numeraire for the real world measure $\mathbb{P}$?

We know the numeraires for the forward measure, the risk-neutral measure, etc. What is the numeraire for the real world measure $\mathbb{P}$?
29
votes
6answers
6k views

How to estimate real-world probabilities

In the world of finance, Risk-neutral pricing allow us to estimate the fair value of derivatives using the risk free rate as the expected return of the underlyings. However, the behavior of ...