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Questions tagged [regression]

Techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

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47 views

Understanding Fama Macbeth Regressions of Returns

I'm trying to understand what the Fama-Macbeth regressions of returns actually mean. The source of confusion is a 2013 Novy-Marx paper, in which he states the following: "The first specification of ...
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21 views

How to interpret a value stock with 0 beta to HML portfolio

I am unsure of how to interpret stocks that have a low P/b but have a low beta when regressed onto the HML portfolio. Conversely, I have found stocks that are not cheap but have a high beta to HML ...
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Fama-Macbeth practitioner's step by step guide?

I've been reading the original Fama-Macbeth (1973) paper as well as questions here and elsewhere. I feel like I'm beginning to run in circles and would like to clarify/confirm how FM regression is ...
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121 views

Uncovering patterns in price timeseries using linear regression

I have some minute-bar data which my professor suggested I resample to 5 minute bars and then separate it into timeseries per bar period. For example, I get one time series for 12:00, another one for ...
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47 views

Recovering index weights via least squares regression on components

As an exercise, I wanted to re-construct the index weights for the Nasdaq-100 (^NDX) via linear regression. For these purposes I got the daily adjusted close of its 103 components from alphavantage.co ...
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What does a regression of squared returns of stock on squared index returns and lags show?

We have a squared stock return at t regressed on 3 variables: squared index return, squared stock return at t-1, and squared index return at t-1. My two questions would be: 1. What does this test ...
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44 views

Simulate option prices [closed]

Starting value = 3110.29 K = 3100 Trading days = 20 Need to simulate the price of an option by using these 2 methods. ( For homoscedastic errors ). *This is what I have already set up <...
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2answers
50 views

Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data

I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question. My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
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23 views

Average of R squared correct/allowed/useful?

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth analysis to estimate the risk premia of Fama/French. In short, I estimated the betas on a company-individual basis first and then conducted a cross-section regression ...
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48 views

Seasonality in Independent Variable in Regression

A non-stationary time series should be not used for regression as it can lead to spurious results. However in case of timeseries without a trend but seasonality, what is the downside of using it in a ...
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65 views

Fama/Macbeth Regression - negative estimate for market premium

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth regression to estimate the risk premia of Mkt-Rf, HML and SMB. As a result, I got a negative risk premium for Mkt-Rf which makes no sense in my opinion. As I couldn't ...
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55 views

How do weights of a Mean-Variance optimized portfolio change as the Covariance matrix of the risky assets change?

I am learning a bit more about CAPM, and wanted to know if there was a specific way that weightings of assets in the optimal mean-variance portfolio changed (for constant risk aversion, expected ...
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63 views

Why is R^2 negative on random data? [closed]

The introductory book says R^2 is between 0 and 1, but I have two randomly generated sequences and the R^2 is negative. So I read further and now understand the negative value is because R^2 ...
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52 views

0.0006 r-squared after trying to test whether the intercepts differ significantly. Did I do it wrong?

I am trying to test if the intercepts of two linear regression (CAPM) differ significantly or not. I have 2 fund's monthly return in the same period and regress them on the same market variable (MKT = ...
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1answer
58 views

Highly skewed (and positive kurtosis) return distribution as a dependent variable

I have two set of optimized returns over a period of time and called this portfolio 1 and 2 and two benchmark portfolio (a value-weighted and equally-weighted benchmark). I want to see the difference ...
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97 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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58 views

Why don't these betas match?

I am sure I am missing something simple, but I would expect my portfolio beta when regressed against the market to match my individual component betas multiplied by the portfolio weights. I have ...
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19 views

Formulating Deposit Rate Sensitivity to Market Rate Changes

I have historical deposit rate data for a specific bank. I want to determine the sensitivity of deposit rates to market rate changes (I'll be using Fed Funds rate). My question is, what would be an ...
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186 views

Definitions of Beta

Definition of Beta It is generally understood that the beta of an asset $i$ is given by coefficient of the linear regression of the asset returns on market ($m$) returns, i.e. $$\beta_i = \frac{\rho\...
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86 views

What is the effect of leverage (ability to short stocks) upon the Fama-French regression coefficients?

I have optimised a set of portfolio and subsequently regressed the returns against the fama-french-Carhart factors. I have two portfolio, one in which short sales are allowed (the portfolio can take ...
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2answers
73 views

factor selection for predicting fnd returns

I have a list of factors (and their returns) as well as a set of mutual fund returns. What are some techniques I could use to select relevant factors for the funds. For example fixed income ...
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0answers
103 views

R squared of a good Trading strategy

What would you consider a decent R square value of a good trading strategy. I know R squared is not a good metric for judging trading strategies but still at an initial stage how do you decide to ...
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34 views

Serial Correlation in Rolling Change Linear Regression Models

1.) Lets say I have two time series GDP, BUSINV from (1948, 2019); Frequency of Data is Quarterly. 2.) Say I want to predict GDP i.e. GDP ~ BUSINV 3.) Since GDP is not stationary (i.e. level) and ...
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3answers
89 views

Insight on how factor models achieve dimensionality-reduction?

Going through the literature on factor models, I keep seeing the phrase "dimensionality reduction" and how factor models allow for the modelling of assets in high-dimensional cases, and I would ...
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2answers
103 views

How to handle Holidays in Time-Series Datasets?

Im currently analyzing a Dataset of the German Stock market. While Holidays like Christmas or New Year aren't a problem for Return Calculation or Portfolio Performance, im testing some regressions and ...
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2answers
149 views

Fama French Three Factor Model: How do I get the risk premia?

I try to calculate the cost of equity with the FF3 model and already estimated the beta factors for the market, size and value risk premia by using regressions and the data provided on the Kenneth ...
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42 views

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Barra gives factor weights for a common set of factors, for each asset. Given a long-short portfolio, is there a way I can combine the individual factor weights to get the factor exposures for the ...
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54 views

Cross Effect in OLS

I am using cross effect in OLS regression for a time series problem for a multivariate regression. I want to quote reference for use of cross effect. Secondly, I want to explain why better to use ...
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1answer
85 views

Naive question: how do factor models inform portfolio construction?

I have read plenty on the topic of factor modelling, but, in the end, after one has decided upon the factors to include in a model, how do all the Betas how tell one how to weigh each asset in a ...
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31 views

How can i fit the following regression in R? Why is the coefficient [second Columns] for R so low?

'Rwml' is the monthly log return So the first column is clear, I got nearly the same values, at least the same magnitude. But: If I regress on the variance, my input values are way too low to get a ...
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54 views

Don't know if it is obvious, but how do I fit the following model in R?

From the Paper "momentum crashes", Daniel and Moskowitz $I_B$ is a dummy Variable which could be either one or zero Is it possible to regress on two intercepts? or do i get something wrong ? Are ...
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38 views

Strange results in Fama-Macbeth regression estimates

I am reading the paper Chordia, Tarun and Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar and Anshuman, V. Ravi, Trading Activity and Expected Stock Returns (Undated). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=204488 or ...
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1answer
93 views

Why do Factor Models set up their factors differently from regression?

While this may be awkwardly-titled, I hope that my question becomes clearer upon reading. So this is what I gather about Factor Models: they are statistical models set up to explain the returns, ${...
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43 views

Testing pricing errors on the SML for significance with R

I have been attempting to do a cross-sectional test of the CAPM. To do this, i have estimated the betas of 49 industry portfolios with time -series data. And then done a cross sectional regression, ...
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1answer
57 views

Transforming non-normally distributed interest rates for OLS regression

I am studying the effects of short- and long-term interest rates on bank risk-taking in the Euro zone countries. To analyse the effects, I will use, amongst other, an OLS regression. However I have ...
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2answers
145 views

Best practice approach for computing beta

I was wondering how one should choose parameters such as "frequency" of returns (daily, monthly etc.), "time frame" (1 or 3 or 5 years of historical data etc), benchmark (same of the portfolio or the ...
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1answer
125 views

Reducing pricing errors (Alpha) in the CAPM with Bitcoin

I have been trying to examine, using the CAPM, if Bitcoin belongs in the market portfolio or not. With 10 industry portfolios from http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library....
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58 views

Regression model: short vs long history

There is a dilemma between choosing short history (1-2 years) and long history (5-10 years) for a regression model. Are there any resources that offer some findings on pros and cons of these two? From ...
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87 views

Fama-French 3, Carhart 4, Fama-French 5 Factor models return borderline 0% R2 (max. 6.6%). Time series regression

I am currently working on an industry specific time series analysis of European Equities between 201001 and 201812. I use the European Fama French factor returns (plus the momentum factor return) that ...
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34 views

Cross-Sectional Multi-Index Model

I'm unsure how to find the covariance matrix in part (b) and what the residual deviations are. Any tips on how to tackle this?
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31 views

Running regression to analyse how leverage changes around

I am running a single variable regression with BHAR returns as independent variable and Leverage as dependent variable. I would like to analyse does the leverage 1 year prior to IPO and 1 year after ...
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78 views

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) results analysis

When using autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL), I usually get a counter-intuitive result for the selected lag. For example, when examining the relationship between GDP and Foreign Direct ...
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128 views

Kalman Filter for Multiple Regression?

I'm using Kalman Filter to calculate a rolling spread between two asset price series as commonly described by Chan and many others. I would like to extend this regression to the price of three assets, ...
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46 views

Probit and Fama-Macbeth procedure

I want to examine the predictive ability of volatility measures for returns prediction. One article used probit regression coefficient estimates to calculate Fama-Macbeth coefficient. I am so confused ...
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1answer
290 views

Question about Fama Macbeth Regression (Confusion about paper)

I'm reading this paper Zura Kakushadze: 4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns https://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.5513.pdf and I am slightly confused about the methodology of the regressions. It says it uses ...
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61 views

Mixed-Frequency VAR -packages

My intention is to retrieve forecast error variance decomposition from a MF-VAR with no latent processes following Ghysels (2012) https://www.hec.ca/finance/seminaires/Ghysels.pdf I found the ...
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1answer
298 views

Residuals Fama MacBeth Regression

I am still asking myself what the pricing error terms in the Fama-MacBeth regression are. Are they the intercept I regress across all assets in each month, once? Or are they the residuals of each ...
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391 views

statistical arbitrage using PCA

While reading the paper Statistical Arbitrage in the U.S. Equities Market by Marco Avellaneda and Jeong-Hyun Lee on statistical arbitrage using PCA I realized that the author sums the residuals of ...
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1answer
188 views

Fama Macbeth regression and portfolio sort result contradiction

I ran Fama Macbeth (regression) on two variables called return and lag MAX ( monthly average return and lag of maximum return over a month). the results are like the following : ...
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1answer
115 views

Modeling independent variables that have an asymmetric impact on the dependent variable

I'm trying to regress a dependent variable on an independent variable that has an asymmetric impact. E.g., the dependent variable is much more responsive to an increase in the independent variable ...