Questions tagged [regression]

Techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

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10 views

Fama French Regression Data matching with returns

as I couldn´t find anything similar in the forum.. I am doing portfolio sorts on a variable (MISP) with stocks that are held for a month: Each month, I am building portfolios by grouping into ...
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38 views

factor selection for predicting fnd returns

I have a list of factors (and their returns) as well as a set of mutual fund returns. What are some techniques I could use to select relevant factors for the funds. For example fixed income ...
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48 views

R squared of a good Trading strategy

What would you consider a decent R square value of a good trading strategy. I know R squared is not a good metric for judging trading strategies but still at an initial stage how do you decide to ...
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31 views

Serial Correlation in Rolling Change Linear Regression Models

1.) Lets say I have two time series GDP, BUSINV from (1948, 2019); Frequency of Data is Quarterly. 2.) Say I want to predict GDP i.e. GDP ~ BUSINV 3.) Since GDP is not stationary (i.e. level) and ...
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3answers
81 views

Insight on how factor models achieve dimensionality-reduction?

Going through the literature on factor models, I keep seeing the phrase "dimensionality reduction" and how factor models allow for the modelling of assets in high-dimensional cases, and I would ...
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2answers
94 views

How to handle Holidays in Time-Series Datasets?

Im currently analyzing a Dataset of the German Stock market. While Holidays like Christmas or New Year aren't a problem for Return Calculation or Portfolio Performance, im testing some regressions and ...
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96 views

Fama French Three Factor Model: How do I get the risk premia?

I try to calculate the cost of equity with the FF3 model and already estimated the beta factors for the market, size and value risk premia by using regressions and the data provided on the Kenneth ...
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39 views

Portfolio Return Decomposition

Barra gives factor weights for a common set of factors, for each asset. Given a long-short portfolio, is there a way I can combine the individual factor weights to get the factor exposures for the ...
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54 views

Cross Effect in OLS

I am using cross effect in OLS regression for a time series problem for a multivariate regression. I want to quote reference for use of cross effect. Secondly, I want to explain why better to use ...
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1answer
59 views

Naive question: how do factor models inform portfolio construction?

I have read plenty on the topic of factor modelling, but, in the end, after one has decided upon the factors to include in a model, how do all the Betas how tell one how to weigh each asset in a ...
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29 views

How can i fit the following regression in R? Why is the coefficient [second Columns] for R so low?

'Rwml' is the monthly log return So the first column is clear, I got nearly the same values, at least the same magnitude. But: If I regress on the variance, my input values are way too low to get a ...
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52 views

Don't know if it is obvious, but how do I fit the following model in R?

From the Paper "momentum crashes", Daniel and Moskowitz $I_B$ is a dummy Variable which could be either one or zero Is it possible to regress on two intercepts? or do i get something wrong ? Are ...
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34 views

Strange results in Fama-Macbeth regression estimates

I am reading the paper Chordia, Tarun and Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar and Anshuman, V. Ravi, Trading Activity and Expected Stock Returns (Undated). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=204488 or ...
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1answer
64 views

Why do Factor Models set up their factors differently from regression?

While this may be awkwardly-titled, I hope that my question becomes clearer upon reading. So this is what I gather about Factor Models: they are statistical models set up to explain the returns, ${...
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39 views

Testing pricing errors on the SML for significance with R

I have been attempting to do a cross-sectional test of the CAPM. To do this, i have estimated the betas of 49 industry portfolios with time -series data. And then done a cross sectional regression, ...
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56 views

Transforming non-normally distributed interest rates for OLS regression

I am studying the effects of short- and long-term interest rates on bank risk-taking in the Euro zone countries. To analyse the effects, I will use, amongst other, an OLS regression. However I have ...
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2answers
101 views

Best practice approach for computing beta

I was wondering how one should choose parameters such as "frequency" of returns (daily, monthly etc.), "time frame" (1 or 3 or 5 years of historical data etc), benchmark (same of the portfolio or the ...
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1answer
121 views

Reducing pricing errors (Alpha) in the CAPM with Bitcoin

I have been trying to examine, using the CAPM, if Bitcoin belongs in the market portfolio or not. With 10 industry portfolios from http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library....
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54 views

Regression model: short vs long history

There is a dilemma between choosing short history (1-2 years) and long history (5-10 years) for a regression model. Are there any resources that offer some findings on pros and cons of these two? From ...
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57 views

Fama-French 3, Carhart 4, Fama-French 5 Factor models return borderline 0% R2 (max. 6.6%). Time series regression

I am currently working on an industry specific time series analysis of European Equities between 201001 and 201812. I use the European Fama French factor returns (plus the momentum factor return) that ...
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33 views

Cross-Sectional Multi-Index Model

I'm unsure how to find the covariance matrix in part (b) and what the residual deviations are. Any tips on how to tackle this?
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30 views

Running regression to analyse how leverage changes around

I am running a single variable regression with BHAR returns as independent variable and Leverage as dependent variable. I would like to analyse does the leverage 1 year prior to IPO and 1 year after ...
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73 views

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) results analysis

When using autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL), I usually get a counter-intuitive result for the selected lag. For example, when examining the relationship between GDP and Foreign Direct ...
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115 views

Kalman Filter for Multiple Regression?

I'm using Kalman Filter to calculate a rolling spread between two asset price series as commonly described by Chan and many others. I would like to extend this regression to the price of three assets, ...
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38 views

Probit and Fama-Macbeth procedure

I want to examine the predictive ability of volatility measures for returns prediction. One article used probit regression coefficient estimates to calculate Fama-Macbeth coefficient. I am so confused ...
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1answer
174 views

Question about Fama Macbeth Regression (Confusion about paper)

I'm reading this paper Zura Kakushadze: 4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns https://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.5513.pdf and I am slightly confused about the methodology of the regressions. It says it uses ...
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45 views

Mixed-Frequency VAR -packages

My intention is to retrieve forecast error variance decomposition from a MF-VAR with no latent processes following Ghysels (2012) https://www.hec.ca/finance/seminaires/Ghysels.pdf I found the ...
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185 views

Residuals Fama MacBeth Regression

I am still asking myself what the pricing error terms in the Fama-MacBeth regression are. Are they the intercept I regress across all assets in each month, once? Or are they the residuals of each ...
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328 views

statistical arbitrage using PCA

While reading the paper Statistical Arbitrage in the U.S. Equities Market by Marco Avellaneda and Jeong-Hyun Lee on statistical arbitrage using PCA I realized that the author sums the residuals of ...
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1answer
119 views

Fama Macbeth regression and portfolio sort result contradiction

I ran Fama Macbeth (regression) on two variables called return and lag MAX ( monthly average return and lag of maximum return over a month). the results are like the following : ...
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1answer
103 views

Modeling independent variables that have an asymmetric impact on the dependent variable

I'm trying to regress a dependent variable on an independent variable that has an asymmetric impact. E.g., the dependent variable is much more responsive to an increase in the independent variable ...
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2answers
418 views

Least-Squares-Monte-Carlo by Neural Network Estimator for pricing American Option Python [closed]

First I did the LSM (Longstaff-Schwartz) to understand how its work to price an American option. code for standard_normal ...
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1answer
114 views

Fama Frech SMB factor and testing for size-effects on the market

I´m currently working on a project where I basically want to compare historically returns between large and small-capitalization stocks in a given time period. I want to approach this problem by ...
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41 views

Why does an increase in eviction court filings result in an increase in REIT returns?

I'm a data mining developer working for a company that wholesales eviction record data on a national level. I was recently assigned a project to build a program to mine all county courts in Oklahoma ...
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75 views

PE ratios in regression models - How to deal with unprofitable companies?

First of all the following is for personal project, not to actually trade, so I'm under no illusion that a simple regression is going to make me money. Pretty simple question: Suppose you're fitting ...
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1answer
55 views

Forecasting default rates using a macroeconomic model

I am trying to forecast corporate default rates using macroeconomic data. I have a few explanatory variables (all the variables are explained in figure 2), which range from 2000 to 2017. On this ...
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32 views

Determining the Relationship Between Monte Carlo Breaks and Model Volatility

I'm looking for a statistical test to understand the relationship (if any) between the model volatilities of a stochastic process, and the occurrence of 'break', defined as the instance when an ...
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4answers
415 views

sharpe ratio from regression

Suppose I run a regression of returns of an asset vs some signal. Is there a way to estimate Sharpe ratio of a strategy based on this signal from this regression? Assuming that signal is a real number ...
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1answer
224 views

Multi-factor models on equity long-short hedge funds

I am seeking papers that use quantitative techniques such as regression or multi-factor models for equity long-short funds. I am interested in understanding equity long-short hedge funds' behavior and ...
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1answer
66 views

Separating industry and market effects for an equity factor portfolio

I am running a regression to capture the risk factor exposures for a security and estimate its returns. To explain the variation in the security's returns, the predictor variables include a "general ...
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1answer
70 views

Comparing two regressions that differ by a few data points

I have built a model that explains how much risk of the stock market (S&P 500 index) is attributable to each sector, where each sector is independent from each other (correlation coefficients ...
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618 views

Newey-West standard errors in Fama-MacBeth regressions

I noticed that during the recent decade most of papers, which use Fama-MacBeth regressions compute Newey-West standard errors. I tried to find detailed description of this procedure in the books on ...
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94 views

What is the optimal approach to “backcasting” alternative asset classes (i.e. PE, Hedge Funds, Real Estate)?

I am interested in coming up with better risk calculations for alternative asset classes. As these are illiquid, not a lot of historical data is available. My idea is to use performance of stocks ...
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40 views

Seeking papers on multi-factor models on the equity long short hedge funds

I am seeking papers that use regression & multi-factor models for equity long-short funds. I am interested in understanding the funds' behavior and exposure to various factors using some ...
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1answer
84 views

Correlation among different sectors of the market

It is known that many sectors/industries within the stock market are correlated with each other. For example, using VIF as a measure of correlation, I have the following result: ...
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2answers
126 views

Data for daily real interest rates

In a high frequency model i would like to add daily real interest rates (preferably short-term) as a variable. However, I cannot seem to find either daily CPI data, or daily real interest rates (...
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1answer
826 views

Testing the statistical significance of alphas in the CAPM

I am trying to test the statistical significance of the alphas in my trading strategy. However, I do not understand the difference between the alphas generated in R. To test the statistical ...
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1answer
35 views

Deriving the long-horizon predictive regression and hypothesis testing

I am working on the long-horizon regression, $$y_{t,K}=\mu+\beta_1x_{1,t-1}+...+\beta_nx_{n,t-1}+e_{t} $$, where $$y_{t,K}=y_{t}+y_{t+1}+...+y_{t+K-1}$$ and there can be multiple x's. So I am ...
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127 views

Fama and French 1997 Cost of Equity

Dear Quantitative Finance Members, I was wondering if you can clarify me the following issue. I am trying to estimate the cost of equity following "Industry costs of equity" (Fama and French, 1997). ...
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100 views

correlation in time series analysis

the goal of my research is to analyze if one variable X follows the movement of another variable Y over time. Meaning that Y is slightly ahead of X. The number of observations in each time series is ...