Questions tagged [regression]

Techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

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118 views

How important is p-value in a logistic regression based strategy?

I have never really given thought to this, but training some strategies I'm testing today I noticed that my model returns an acceptable annualized return/drawdown/etc, but the model parameters are not ...
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1answer
842 views

Linear Regression vs Mean Variance Optimization

Assume I have n signals, which I would like to linearly weight and combine to form an aggregate signal. Two possible ways of doing this based on historical data are:...
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70 views

Dividing H in the Hurst power law function to get the Hurst exponent?

For my own learning I have been following the guide here. It is highly instructive. Implementing this in R I was able to reproduce the authors results on the data sets provided within some ...
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248 views

Yield curve estimaton using linear regression

Assuming that there are not any zero coupon bonds in the market, then someone has to use the prices of regular bonds with same maturity and characteristics (risk,issue etc.) to obtain the yield curve. ...
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152 views

Explanation and Application of Quantile Regression of Value-At-Risk

Self-learner here. Please, excuse me if I am asking a Question already answered, but the explanations that I find online, just seem to be a bit hard for me. I am currently trying to apply the Basel ...
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2answers
157 views

When constructing a cointegrating series, does choosing the linear regression with the lowest ADF test statistic yield the optimal hedging ratio?

Multiple sources say that you should find the optimal hedging ratio between two stocks in a pairs trade by conducting 2 linear regressions (with each stock as the independent variable), and using ...
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253 views

Multiple regression on hedge fund returns

I have a data set of long/short equity hedge funds returns and their associated benchmarks (market indices). I need to form multiple regression on the fund returns using the benchmarks returns as ...
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1answer
870 views

Empirical duration and convexity for bonds using linear regression

I have a given time series of bond yields from Quandl. From the time series, I have taken a sample to simulate a path of bond yields by Monte Carlo in Python. I have to do the following task: "...
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1answer
871 views

What drives the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle?

I am currently analyzing the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) puzzle. (Ang, Hodrick, Xing, & Zhang (2006) found that idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and next-month cross-sectional returns are ...
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2answers
1k views

Calculating 10-year Sharpe ratio for a mutual fund in excel?

Probably a very simple question but here goes. I am looking to calculate the Sharpe ratio for some funds in excel (173 funds to be exact). The monthly returns I have are from January 2006 to December ...
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437 views

Fama French- typical time lag

I have daily prices of 400 stocks for the last 10 years. I have to create each month a portfolio of 20 stocks that minimizes variance with 2 approaches: 1) Estimate volatility with a GARCH(1,1) model ...
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1answer
6k views

Interpreting the coefficients of Fama-MacBeth regression

According to Fama & MacBeth (1973) two-step regression, you start with estimating the beta factors. When applying the Fama-French 3-Factor model, you first run the linear regression $$r_{i,t}=α_i+...
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1answer
881 views

Calculating fund alpha using Fama-French 3 factor model?

My dissertation requires me to evaluate fund performance, and for that I need to find the alpha for each fund. I have 173 funds total. I have all the inputs for the 3-factor model, and I realise ...
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1answer
3k views

How to compute a Fama-Macbeth R-Squared (R2)?

I'm reaching out regarding the R-Squared of a Fama-Macbeth regression. This is often reported in econometric results but I have yet to find a good explanation of how it is computed. Specifically, if ...
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1answer
82 views

Given a particular Monte-Carlo simulation, how will a different correlated value change

I am currently working on a project at an investment bank regarding new accounting regulations on financial instruments. The task at hand it to understand the connection between a large array of ...
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2answers
756 views

Beta in foreign exchange market

Would it make sense to use a regression to calculate beta for returns on a foreign exchange currency (regressed on a market average of all currencies)? Would the beta make sense? (why/why not) ...
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1answer
6k views

Fama Mac-Beth (1973) vs Fixed effect

Currently testing if monthly fund characteristics (size, capital flows, age, risk, persistence,...) explain funds abnormal returns. My data is set as a panel with 1000 equity mutual funds over the ...
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2answers
2k views

Choosing the right statistical test for Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation

How do you suggest I do this? I would like to perform a statistical test to check if: the aggregate alpha of all funds equals 0. the aggregate beta of all funds equals 1. Data Sample of 1000 mutual ...
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1answer
1k views

The R-squared of the four factor model.

Why does papers such as Fama and French (2010) and Barras et al. (2010) construct equal weighted portfolio of all funds when they analyse the aggregate performance of mutual funds? They both report ...
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324 views

Fama and French (market premium) factor

Currently I am using the Fama and French 3 factor model to explain the performance of mutual funds using monthly returns from 2000 to 2017. I use two market proxies: (1) RM-RF, obtained directly ...
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1answer
51 views

Is my data fittet to be significant?

I am new to this forum and hope for some help. I have a dataset of returns. I cannot tell where these come from, but let's assume they come from a trading algorithm of stock prices. The returns are ...
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1answer
495 views

Carhart (1997) momentum factor loading

I am evaluating the performance of a sample of 1000 mutual funds over the period 2000 to 2017 using Carhart (1997) four factor model. As a way to test for robustness, I use two benchmarks. The CRSP ...
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1answer
116 views

R-squared increase dramatically when including “time dummy” (STATA)

Currently running a fixed effect panel using STATA. First, I declare data set as panel: Code: xtset id obs Where id = 350 firms and obs = 125 Then I run a fixed effect regression: Code: xtreg y x, ...
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2answers
106 views

Disadvantages of large panel

I am currently researching if some fund characteristics such as (fund size, fund family size, capital flows, and fund age) explains fund performance measured (monthly alpha). Therefore, I am using a ...
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1answer
2k views

How can you determine the correct significance of the Shiller P/E regression?

The "Shiller P/E regression" refers to the regression of real stock market returns over the next 20 years on the Shiller P/E. When I did this OLS regression myself (based on the data from Prof. ...
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1answer
153 views

What relevance might the Modigliani-Miller theorem have for weight of evidence?

Suppose in computing weight of evidence based on financial ratios of some bank, one finds that their debt ratio and equity ratio have largely (you pick how large I guess) differing weights of evidence....
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1k views

How do I control for a firm's “factor loadings” based on the Fama French model in a regression model?

I asked this question before, but in the wrong community (sorry): I want to explain stock returns in a regression model. Besides regressing against my main explanatory variables, I want to control ...
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175 views

Testing whether a process is a Wiener process [closed]

Ideally I would like links to code implementations (eg. Matlab ) or book/paper references, but I would appreciate suggestions on various methods. Update: I was hoping to attract people who test the ...
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88 views

Sensitivity analysis

If I want to test the sensitivity of a diversified, multi-asset class portfolio to say a 100 bps shock upwards in the S&P 500, the simplest solution would be to run an OLS defined as: $\hat{Y}_{...
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1answer
181 views

Modelling fund positioning using fund returns and linear regression

I want to measure the positioning of an active bond mutual fund vs. its benchmark via rolling linear regression of returns vs several factors. The intuition of using linear regression is that the ...
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0answers
364 views

Regressing non-USD returns on FF 3-factor returns

I am analysing some portfolio returns from the perspective of a Danish investor, i.e. in the local currency, DKK. I want to regress portfolio returns in DKK on the returns of a 3 factor Fama & ...
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2answers
4k views

Calculating alpha and its meaning

According to wikipedia, CAPM model is described by: $E(R_{i})=R_{f}+\beta _{{i}}(E(R_{m})-R_{f})$ And according to website such as http://investexcel.net/jensens-alpha-excel/, $\alpha = E(R_{i}) - ...
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1answer
747 views

CAPM Calculations

Im trying to calculate Alpha using CAPM & I have data on everything necessary. $$R_t-R_f={\alpha}+{\beta}\times(R_m-R_f)$$ i.e. $${\alpha}=R_t-R_t-{\beta}\times(R_m-R_f)$$ In more detail, I ...
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140 views

Why Regression should only be done on Non-Stationary data points?

I am working through a course on PCA and Factor analysis, where the example is to perform regression on stock prices, with an objective to predict the stock prices. The author claims, that we need to ...
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478 views

R squared statistic in predictions of returns

My question is related to an article which use predictive linear regression for the stock returns. There is told that R squared statistic of 1.6% is high. How can we measure which R squared is high? I ...
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37 views

Variance Equations is missing definition

here: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1208/ML12088A329.pdf Campbell, Lo, Mackinlay: The Econometrics of Financial Markets on page 159 i am looking at equation 4.4.9 in the last line, = $I\sigma_{\...
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160 views

In Linear Regression for time series stock prediction, instead of cost function, use final portfolio value?

In Linear Regression for time series stock prediction, instead of using the cost function and minimizing the cost function, why can't we use the final portfolio value? Assume we are doing a time ...
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61 views

Spurious regression between two futures with the same underlying highly correlated (cor=0.9)

analyzing the correlation between soybean and soybean meal futures in ECBOT, and making a linear regression in R between them I check with an ADF Test that the residuals are not stationary, so ...
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2answers
606 views

What is the best benchmark index for computing the beta of a multinational company?

I'm running a valuation of a multinational company listed on the AEX (Amsterdam Eurononext). The company has operations in Europe (70%), US (25%) and other (5%). I have historic stock data until from ...
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2answers
158 views

Robust regressions: how to interpreter R^2

I am not sure if this is the right site, I hope so! But it is half coding half econometric so I guess the answer can only be given from finance professional. In matlab it is possible to run robust ...
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1answer
2k views

How to use factor models for prediction?

I was looking at this thread here, reading about how to run regressions and thereby construct factor models. Assuming these factor models are properly specified, I am trying to better understand how ...
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3answers
32k views

How exactly do I calculate and interpret factors in Fama-French model?

Could anyone explain me how to interpret factors and what kind of regressions I should run? I have already calculated the factor returns as well as 6 Fama-French portfolio returns, the only problem ...
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2answers
2k views

Fama/French 3 Factors: How to convert published daily/weekly/monthly values to semi-annual/annual?

In the famous Ken French web side there is database of historical values of FF 3 factors model. The partition is between daily/weekly/monthly tables. Is it possible (and how) to transform one of ...
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125 views

Smooth ornstein uhlenbeck process

I want to simulate paths for a commodity price. I use the historic data in the following way: $X_t$ is the price. $\ln\left(\frac{X_t}{X_{t-1}}\right)$ is the daily return. I calculate the slope of ...
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2answers
5k views

Fama French & Solving for Alpha

This is a question about comparing results from the Fama french 3 factor model. I have not physically done this, but let's assume a Fama French 3 factor regression was performed for Coca-Cola (KO) ...
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1answer
69 views

How do I test if my betas form a co-integrated vector?

I have identified a model using principal component regression where $Y_t$ is explained by 4 factors such as: $$Y_t = \beta_1 X_{1t} + \beta_2 X_{2t} + \beta_3 X_{3t} + \beta_4 X_{4t} + \epsilon_t$$ ...
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2answers
1k views

How to adjust regression for rolling returns?

I have a predictor variable (x) and dependent variable (y). Both are monthly rolling annualized returns, which naturally induces significant autocorrelation in x and y. They both also fail to be ...
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115 views

Fit Simple VAR model in Matlab

I've been trying to fit the following model in Matlab: $\beta_{t}=a+Mt+A\beta_{t-1}+\epsilon_{t}$ Where a is a constant, M is a vector of trend parameters and A a cross-factor interaction matrix. I'...
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168 views

VAR FPCA analysis paper replication

I've been trying to replicate the following publication: CONSISTENT FUNCTIONAL PCA FOR FINANCIAL TIME-SERIES, Sebastian Jaimungal, Eddie K. H. Ng, 2007 but I havent been able to get the same results ...
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1answer
1k views

Fama-Macbeth regression in Eviews

I'm adding a new factor to Fama-French three-factor model. I have constructed portfolios and got 18 three-way sorted portfolios. Now, I think I have to do Macbeth procedure to test the model. I'm ...

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