# Questions tagged [regression]

Techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

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265 views

### Variable Selection with Kalman Filter

I'm trying to estimate factor loadings on portfolios over time for portfolios that are traded pretty frequently. I have a sense that several portfolios are loading on the Fama-French HML factor ...
115 views

### Regression of TAQ half-hourly stock volume data against news volume

I am planning to run regression of half-hourly stock volume against the half-hourly news volume for that particular stock. I am looking at 2 years of data for my analysis. However, I am stuck thinking ...
646 views

### The implied volatility surface and the option Greeks - to what extent is the information contained in their daily movements the same?

What is the link between option Greeks (i.e. vega, delta, gamma, theta) and implied volatility surface (IVS) movements? Could you say that their 'information content' is the same. i.e. that out of ...
391 views

### Constant term in linear regresion

Can someone give a mathematical proof as to why including a constant in a linear regression equivalent is to running a regression with demeaned data and zero constant? More specifically, consider the ...
244 views

783 views

### Regression with Lagged variables

I am new to regression analysis. Let's say initially I have a linear regression x = alag(x1) + blag(x2) + clag(x3) -- eq 1 I want to predict the price x based on the the price of x from previous ...
589 views

### Why do long-term equity return forecast models use dependent observations?

I've been reading up on different models used to forecast the equity risk premium, and I've seen a couple of papers that had questionable methods. For example, this paper by Javier Estrada goes into ...
205 views

### How does the number of free dimensions of a model affect its required size of sample?

Adding more variables to a model usually increases its accuracy. However, without adequate analysis it could also lead to curve fitting. Another question (How much data is needed to validate a short-...
392 views

### Regression in liquidity risk model of Jarrow/Protter

In the paper "Liquidity Risk and Risk Measure Computation" authors describe a linear supply curve model for liquidity risks in presence of market impact, i.e. impact-affected asset price $S(t,x)$ is ...
6k views

### How to use Newey West covariance corrector?

I have implemented the following model: daily_vol(t+1) = A*daily_vol(t) + B*weekly_vol(t) + C*monthly_vol(t) + error where vol means volatility, and A, B, C are ...
305 views

### Regression giving the return on a stock

I have this regression equation: $$R_{stock} = 3,28\% + 1,65*R_{market}$$ Where $R_{stock}$ is the expected return on a stock and $R_{market}$ being the market risk premium. I have a one-year T-...
2k views

### Multiple (linear) regression

I am looking for some inputs on a pair trading strategy that I am trying to improve with some semi-fundamental input. The basic idea is to use multiple linear regression to estimate the price of a ...
155 views

### What to do with linear regression or regression splines outside of the training range?

This is a cross-post from here In my question on a load forecast model using temperature data as covariates I was advised to use regression splines. This really seems to be a/the solution. Now I ...
1k views

### What data transformations to use in regression of credit spreads on equity prices?

Clearly there is a strong relationship between credit spreads and equity prices (both theoretically and empirically). But how would one go about formulating a regression which seeks to explain this ...
1k views

### Regressor: Nominal return, continuous return or first difference?

Suppose the application is linear models in financial econometrics. If we want to analyze stocks, the standard approach is to take the continuous/log return: $\ln{ \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} }$. Suppose, ...
116 views

### Regression extensions

I'm trying to find extensions for my regression and obviously would like to use PE, BV and CFO. But I've got monthly data, while all company's fundamentals are semi-annually... Can I deal with it ...
665 views

### Why are regressors squared and not ^1.5 or ^2.2 or ^2.5?

When a researcher in economics or finance wants to apply a linear regression model but suspects a non-linear relationship between one of the regressors and the dependent variable, it is typical to ...
258 views

### How to estimate CAViaR (Engle and Manganelli 2004) using non linear quantile regression?

I am trying to replicate results from Engle and Manganelli (2004). The following is one of their specifications, $q_t(\theta)=\gamma_0+\gamma_1q_{t-1}(\theta)+\alpha|r_{t-1}|$, $q$ is the quantile of ...
1k views

### How to compute portfolio weights from multivariate regression results?

Assuming that I performed a multivariate regression and I found a set of $k$ coefficients $\alpha_1, ..., \alpha_k$ for each of the factors $F_1, ... F_k$. I have then computed the following ...
2k views

### Using rolling returns in a multivariate linear regression?

I am trying to use fundamental factors such as PE, BV, & CFO in a multivariate linear regression with the response variable being the rolling 1 month returns. But this approach seems flawed as the ...
703 views

### Trading Strategies and Portfolio Constructions based on Cross Sectional Regression? [closed]

I often see trading strategies and portfolio construction that are based on cross-sectional regression. For example, I often see regressing some numbers against some factors. I was wondering how ...
3k views

### What are the steps to perform properly a risk factor analysis on a portfolio?

I have been asked to perform a factor analysis on a given portfolio, assume it's a Swiss portfolio in CHF. First step, I chose which factors I would like to see in my analysis. The first factors I ...
1k views

### How to calculate the weight of the stocks using the linear regression?

I do a simple example with the follow three series(stocks prices): ...
789 views

### How to run an asset replication regression?

I am doing extensive research on portfolio replication and was hoping to get some help with some problems I am encountering. I am running a regression between 2 assets that I believe replicate ...
362 views

### How to improve the consistency of explained variance statistics in a linear equity model?

I have an intraday equity returns linear model that, overall, shows good values in terms of $R^2$, p-value and other explained variance statistics. Around 70% of the stocks show consistent R-squared (...
525 views

### Linear regression and assets direction prediction

I have the following asset returns Y and the predictions for the same periods Y': Y = { 10, 200, -1000, -1, -7 } Y' = { 1, 2, -3, -4, -5 } The OLR R-squared for ...
386 views

### How to balance two Forex crosses correctly to do a linear regression?

I have two cross and an account in EUR: EUR/USD GBP/USD I would like to do a balanced linear regression using R. With "balanced" I mean that I would like to normalize it by calculating the ...
9k views

### Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
2k views

### Expected return from a multiple linear regression?

How can I compute the predicted return from a linear regression that includes a number of different terms. For instance, suppose my equation is: \$r_{future} = \alpha + \beta_1 r_{history} + \beta_2 ...
605 views

### Efficiency vs. Robustness - To use a constant or not in single factor time-series regression?

Arbitrage pricing theory states that expected returns for a security are linear combination of exposures to risk factors and the returns on these risk factors. Betas, or the exposures of the security ...