Questions tagged [regression]

Techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

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How can the different r2 score of an AR(1) model on prices vs. returns be explained

This is maybe a silly question, but I want to understand. As far as I understand an AR(1) model, it is basically a linear regression model with the same but lagged variable, right? However I am ...
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Tradeoffs of using Loess regression to fit random walks

I am curious if anyone has had much experience attempting to predict random walks using Loess regression or a variant of local statistical methods.
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Performance attribution and monthly rebalance: Is a month enough data to calculate Beta and Alpha?

A portfolio is built systematically by calculating scores and rebalanced each month to invest only in the 80 best scores. Scores change frequently and therefore the portfolio changes each month, ...
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Extrapolate Implied Volatility Surface

I have a moneynessratio-tenor volatility surface and want to extrapolate the implied volatility for moneynessratios > 150%. The volatility surface was downloaded for different points in time, so I ...
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How to interpret a value stock with 0 beta to HML portfolio

I am unsure of how to interpret stocks that have a low P/b but have a low beta when regressed onto the HML portfolio. Conversely, I have found stocks that are not cheap but have a high beta to HML ...
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Portfolio Return Decomposition

Barra gives factor weights for a common set of factors, for each asset. Given a long-short portfolio, is there a way I can combine the individual factor weights to get the factor exposures for the ...
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59 views

Cross Effect in OLS

I am using cross effect in OLS regression for a time series problem for a multivariate regression. I want to quote reference for use of cross effect. Secondly, I want to explain why better to use ...
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Compare a timeseries of projected versus actual returns?

I am trying to validate the use of a model. I have two streams of NPV calculations, one is the actual return, the other is the projected return. Those streams are turned into deltas from one time ...
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267 views

Multiple regression on hedge fund returns

I have a data set of long/short equity hedge funds returns and their associated benchmarks (market indices). I need to form multiple regression on the fund returns using the benchmarks returns as ...
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91 views

Sensitivity analysis

If I want to test the sensitivity of a diversified, multi-asset class portfolio to say a 100 bps shock upwards in the S&P 500, the simplest solution would be to run an OLS defined as: $\hat{Y}_{...
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Variance Equations is missing definition

here: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1208/ML12088A329.pdf Campbell, Lo, Mackinlay: The Econometrics of Financial Markets on page 159 i am looking at equation 4.4.9 in the last line, = $I\sigma_{\...
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Is there a considered floor for variation the 1st principal component must explain?

I am wondering if there is a considered floor to the percentage variation the 1st principal component must explain in general for PCA - ie. any lower and it is not worth doing PCA at all? Is the floor ...

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