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Questions tagged [returns]

The asset rate of returns is the profit on a particular investment; it includes any change in the asset value, interest, commission or dividends and so, all other cash-flows which an investors receive or pays due to the investment.

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Calculating Sharpe Ratio with dynamic position sizing

I'm currently backtesting a mean reversion pairs trading strategy. However, instead of simple long or short trading signals, I'm using multiple "levels", where the further away the spread is from the ...
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How much wealth and or income do you need to belong to the global top 1% by wealth? [on hold]

By my calculations, the billionaires of the world are at 0.000025% of the world population. Thus, to be in the world's and even the United States top 1%, you need much less money and income. Is that ...
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1answer
50 views

IRR for irregular cashflow in and out

So I work for a real estate development umbrella company and the developers that work within it borrow money as needed from the company and receive a percentage of the inflows after repayment of debt. ...
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Cost of capital - data [closed]

Does anyone know if there is data on Fama and French (1997) Industry cost of Capital? Best, Alberto
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2answers
51 views

Calculating excess returns

I would like to know if I am calculating these excess returns correctly. I have here an R dataframe with weekly 3-month treasury bill rates, and the arithmetic ...
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1answer
64 views

Cumulative Return on Futures

In my current backtesting, I am using log returns as a proxy for simple returns via the relationship $\ln(1 + r) \approx r$ for small enough r. This gives me wonderful properties like time additivity, ...
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2answers
90 views

How to calculate “portfolio cumulative return” from individual price data and weight of them?

I'm trying to run backtest in a vectorized way using Python Pandas and need to calculate a portfolio cumulative return from price data and weight of asset data. I ...
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1answer
37 views

How does inflation impact stock returns? Academic examples

For a literature survey in my university class, I have been asked the question "How does inflation impact stock returns?". After reading some informal articles (in periodicals/ the general internet), ...
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1answer
77 views

What is the Probability Distribution of Max-Drawdown?

How to obtain the probability distribution of Maximum Drawdown, starting from the probability distribution of Daily Returns? Here the details: Suppose I have a time serie of N=1000 daily returns. ...
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Changing units of returns [duplicate]

I have downloaded data on the inflation rate in USA. The data that I got is the 12 month inflation but stated each month. So for 1 year I have 12 different inflation rates that reflect the following ...
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26 views

What price should be used in calculation of daily return

With OHLC data in hand, what price should be used to calculate the daily return? Some models use daily close price, but I don't think that's a reasonable assumption considering practical changes in ...
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20 views

Lag 1 Autocorrelation using the rank von Neumann hypothesis test

I am looking at various crypto-currencies and trying to understand the underlying autocorrelations in the returns. For this I use the rank von Neumann test, where: $H_0: \rho = 0$ $H_1:\rho <> ...
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1answer
62 views

How to Calculate Stock Return with Stock Bonuses and Rights?

I would appreciate if you could let me know how to calculate stock return for a given company when the company issued bonus shares and rights. If company just paid dividends, stock return would be: ...
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1answer
62 views

What are the units of the variance of returns?

I am a little confused about the units of the variance of returns. One way to compute that would be to look at the units of returns- $$r=\frac{1}{\Delta t}\ln\frac{P(t+\Delta t)}{P(t)}=\text{...
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Black Litterman - numerical instability

I am trying to work out the formula for the posterior mean in Black Litterman's model assuming 100% confidence : Ref: https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/...
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2answers
64 views

Return on a CDS portfolio

Good evening, I try to compute the performance of a portfolio of a CDS. I already know how to mark-to-market a CDS but typically, the first time you enter a CDS, you invest zero as the mark-to-market ...
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0answers
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How to compute historical bond drawdowns from yields

I came across a very interesting article which shows a picture with the drawdowns bondholders would have faced by investing in Fixed Income since 1919. However, the picture I get looks a bit ...
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0answers
31 views

Return Contribution for Annual Returns

I have a portfolio $p$ made up of a bunch of assets $i$ where the weights change slowly over time. The returns over each period $j$ composed of the weighted returns of the asset $r^j_p$ $$ r^j_p =...
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1answer
122 views

How to compute bond drawdowns?

I came across a very interesting article which shows a picture with the drawdowns bondholders would have faced by investing in Fixed Income since 1919. The data is based on the Moody's seasoned AAA ...
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0answers
64 views

Calculate monthly returns for a QUARTERLY and YEARLY rebalanced portfolio in R

I built a minimum variance, equal weight, inverse volatility, and equal risk contribution portfolios based on the same data set of monthly returns for 30 different companies. The covariance matrix is ...
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1answer
152 views

Is positive skewness preferences rational or irrational?

Is positive skewness preference rational or irrational? I have a great trouble understanding why investors should prefer positive skewness over negative one. Sometimes it is argued that preference ...
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1answer
144 views

Portfolio forward return

I am working on a project which needs to find portfolio return for the next m months. To begin, let say investor hold a portfolio of $N$ stocks with weight $w_i$ invested in stock $i$, what is the ...
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1answer
82 views

What is the correct way to calculate the annualized returns from rolling windows starting from monthly returns?

What is the correct way to calculate the annualized returns in 5-year rolling estimation windows starting from monthly returns? Is it most correct to first annualize the returns (using the geometric ...
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3answers
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If markets are efficient, why are most returns systematically high?

Suppose markets are perfectly efficient and asset prices reflect all available information. Under this assumption one expects current prices to be non-biased estimators of future prices. It seems to ...
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0answers
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Computing squared returns given differential equation for prices

I am looking for general advice on how to start tackling the problem below. My background in math is fairly bad when it comes to stochastic differential equations, but if you have any recommendations ...
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1answer
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Variance covariance matrix - number of periods required

Hi I am reviewing the example of Barra risk model in the following document page 23 there is the statement: "Estimating a covariance matrix for, say, 3,000 stocks requires data for at least 3,...
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73 views

Monte Carlo simulation based VaR: daily vs annual parameters

I am given the initial price, annualized return, and volatility of a security. I am trying to calculate annualized VaR using Monte Carlo simulation approach. To do this I will use the following ...
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31 views

Calculating Historical Currency Returns for Backtesting

I am trying to calculate a historical daily series of developed market currency returns versus the USD, which can be used in backtesting currency strategies. In real time, one would buy a currency ...
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Bootstrapping to Judge the Fit of a Sampled Return Distribution

Consider the following: I have sampled yearly stock returns from a specified distribution. What I want to do is compare how well my sampled distribution fits the empirical distribution of yearly ...
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1answer
57 views

Should log returns be used in multilinear regressions?

As the title already says, should log returns, instead of simple returns, be used in regression analysis? In this case, I want to analyse the impact of specific factors (Dividend yield etc.) on the ...
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2answers
160 views

question on XIRR (excel)

Let's say we have an initial investment of -10 on 1/1/2000, and from 1/1/2001 to 1/1/2018 (with annual payments on Jan-1 of each year for 18 years) we get a CF of +2 each year with a final payment of ...
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0answers
31 views

History to use to fit a gaussian mixture distribution?

I have to model the distribution of past returns for several time horizon using a gaussian mixture distribution. I first build my time series of past returns thanks to a rolling sum of my past log ...
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1answer
166 views

Pandas: Close-to-Open return on stocks

I am trying to daily calculate the close-to-open return for j stocks for t days. Is there anyway I can calculate without using a for loop? I have one Dataframe for daily close prices and one for daily ...
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48 views

Should we use total return or OAS when comparing different bonds?

When comparing different bonds, for example corporate bonds and Treasuries, should we use total return or Option Adjusted Spread if we want to know one's return advantage over another? Some say ...
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Changing the frequency of 5-min returns/realized volatility of different products

I stumbled upon a problem of converting the returns and volatility of high frequency data to daily ones. I start with 1-minute returns, then calculate the 5-minute realized variance as the sum of the ...
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Intra-period return on a long forward position

Just recall that return on a long forward position over the term of the forward contract from $\displaystyle t=0$ to $\displaystyle t=T$ is \begin{equation} R_{T,0}=\frac{S_{T}-F_{0}}{S_{0}} \end{...
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2answers
86 views

What returns to use?

I have monthly returns of my portfolio... I would like to summarize the performance over a longer period in one overall figure. Should I use log returns per month then use geometric mean on the log ...
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2answers
330 views

What is the difference between squared returns and variance?

I am trying to calculate 1-day ahead volatility forecasts using the exponentially weighted moving average, however I am unsure on how to read the formula provided within Risk-Metrics Technical ...
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0answers
73 views

Calculating realized volatility of high-frequency data

I am wondering how to calculate the realized volatility. Sources such as say that the realized volatility is the sum of squared log returns sampled at a given frequency. So using 30 minute frequency ...
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1answer
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Returns and Factors for European Market Kenneth French Database

I am planning to estimate Fama-French model for mutual funds with European equity scope. I am thinking about using the European factors from Kenneth French database, which are computed in USD. The ...
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0answers
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Generate P Value from stationary bootstrap following Politis & Romano (1994)

For my master thesis I am analyzing the performance of trading strategies. For this I need to avoid data snooping by utilising the FDR approach. I follow closely the procedure presented by Bajgrowicz &...
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117 views

Cumulative returns of rolling returns

So say I have a series of 252 period rolling simple returns. How can I work out real cumulative returns from that? Is it possible? $$\ \frac{P_{252}}{P_0}-1 , \frac{P_{253}}{P_1}-1, \frac{P_{254}}{...
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The diffrence when calcaualting portfolio return between manual cacluation and Return.excess() from 'PerformanceAnalytics' packages in R

Hi I have a basic question about using Perforamnce Anayltics packages from R. I'm trying to get a portfolio return (time series data) and the return data is 'tan_data'. I have assigned return to 'w' ...
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23 views

Subtracting dividend return from return in gross return

Given the following equation: $q = \frac{R - d - c}{u - d}$ this is the derivation of one of the risk-neutral measures used in calculating the fair value of a call option. I have the following ...
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1answer
236 views

Total Return Swaps and Borrow Cost Relationship

If an investor is long a Total Return Swap (TRS), they get the total return (ie, including dividend) performance and usually pay LIBOR minus a spread. This spread should trade ...
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1answer
125 views

Calculating intraday returns from imperfect data in R [closed]

The aim is to calculate minute returns in R. Given is minute price data in a tbl_df. A row was only added if there actually were trades. ...
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1answer
75 views

portfolio returns when portfolio value is negative

I am being very stupid probably but I don't understand the following. Portfolio 1st Jan valued: -$100 A month later Portfolio 1st Feb valued: -$45 I calculate the return of the portfolio as, <...
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1answer
208 views

Empirical duration and convexity for bonds using linear regression

I have a given time series of bond yields from Quandl. From the time series, I have taken a sample to simulate a path of bond yields by Monte Carlo in Python. I have to do the following task: "...
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0answers
89 views

What can cause autocorrelation in higher lag orders of returns?

I am fitting an AR(p) model to the daily time series of S&P500 returns. I have examined AIC/BIC up to 5 lags and both show that model with 2 lags is optimal. However, when I examine the residuals ...
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2answers
190 views

Have any other factor “styles” which explain equity returns been uncovered?

I know this is an inherently broad question, so I will attempt to clarify what I mean by factor "styles". I am not looking for a compendium of "anomalies", per se, but rather for categorical themes ...