Questions tagged [returns]

The asset rate of returns is the profit on a particular investment; it includes any change in the asset value, interest, commission or dividends and so, all other cash-flows which an investors receive or pays due to the investment.

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Predicting stock returns with GARCH in Python

I have seen this post: Correctly applying GARCH in Python which shows how to correctly apply GARCH models in Python using the arch library. Now I am wondering how I ...
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Volatility Index for Industries

The VIX index is based on the S&P, I am wondering the feasibility of creating a VIX index for each of the S&P 500 Industries? Would this even be possible?
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Calculating Sharpe Ratio with dynamic position sizing

I'm currently backtesting a mean reversion pairs trading strategy. However, instead of simple long or short trading signals, I'm using multiple "levels", where the further away the spread is from the ...
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71 views

IRR for irregular cashflow in and out

So I work for a real estate development umbrella company and the developers that work within it borrow money as needed from the company and receive a percentage of the inflows after repayment of debt. ...
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Why is there no closed-form equation for XIRR?

Everything I have read about XIRR (e.g., as calculated in Excel) says that there is no closed-form equation and it must be calculated by iterated approximation. Could someone give a brief ...
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Calculating excess returns

I would like to know if I am calculating these excess returns correctly. I have here an R dataframe with weekly 3-month treasury bill rates, and the arithmetic ...
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264 views

question on XIRR (excel)

Let's say we have an initial investment of -10 on 1/1/2000, and from 1/1/2001 to 1/1/2018 (with annual payments on Jan-1 of each year for 18 years) we get a CF of +2 each year with a final payment of ...
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331 views

How are Fama French Factor Returns for the last 3 and 12 months calculated?

In the Fama/French data library the monthly research factors for the Fama-French-3-Factor-Model and the Fama-French-5-Factor-Model are presented. I don't see how they are calculating the factor ...
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How to calculate “portfolio cumulative return” from individual price data and weight of them?

I'm trying to run backtest in a vectorized way using Python Pandas and need to calculate a portfolio cumulative return from price data and weight of asset data. I ...
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Portfolio returns with unequal asset return histories

Using the package PerformanceAnalytics in R, I am trying to calculate the return of an equal-weighted portfolio that contains 30 assets. However, these assets do not have the same starting point in ...
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49 views

How does inflation impact stock returns? Academic examples

For a literature survey in my university class, I have been asked the question "How does inflation impact stock returns?". After reading some informal articles (in periodicals/ the general internet), ...
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302 views

What is the Probability Distribution of Max-Drawdown?

How to obtain the probability distribution of Maximum Drawdown, starting from the probability distribution of Daily Returns? Here the details: Suppose I have a time serie of N=1000 daily returns. ...
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How to Calculate Stock Return with Stock Bonuses and Rights?

I would appreciate if you could let me know how to calculate stock return for a given company when the company issued bonus shares and rights. If company just paid dividends, stock return would be: ...
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What are the units of the variance of returns?

I am a little confused about the units of the variance of returns. One way to compute that would be to look at the units of returns- $$r=\frac{1}{\Delta t}\ln\frac{P(t+\Delta t)}{P(t)}=\text{...
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Calculating weekly portfolio returns for portfolios sorted by volatility

I am having some issues with finding the right code in STATA for sorting the data into portfolios by historical volatility (standard deviation) of returns and then calculating portfolio returns and ...
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Black Litterman - numerical instability

I am trying to work out the formula for the posterior mean in Black Litterman's model assuming 100% confidence : Ref: https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/...
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146 views

Return on a CDS portfolio

Good evening, I try to compute the performance of a portfolio of a CDS. I already know how to mark-to-market a CDS but typically, the first time you enter a CDS, you invest zero as the mark-to-market ...
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198 views

How to compute bond drawdowns?

I came across a very interesting article which shows a picture with the drawdowns bondholders would have faced by investing in Fixed Income since 1919. The data is based on the Moody's seasoned AAA ...
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Is positive skewness preferences rational or irrational?

Is positive skewness preference rational or irrational? I have a great trouble understanding why investors should prefer positive skewness over negative one. Sometimes it is argued that preference ...
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Calculate Average Price, Cost, (Un)Realized P&L of a position based on executed trades

We have built an algorithmic trading software and need to calculate the following parameters for each position in our portfolio. Average Price Cost Realized Profit & Loss Unrealized Profit & ...
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424 views

Portfolio forward return

I am working on a project which needs to find portfolio return for the next m months. To begin, let say investor hold a portfolio of $N$ stocks with weight $w_i$ invested in stock $i$, what is the ...
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If markets are efficient, why are most returns systematically high?

Suppose markets are perfectly efficient and asset prices reflect all available information. Under this assumption one expects current prices to be non-biased estimators of future prices. It seems to ...
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307 views

Estimation Risk-Neutral Variance of Returns

I am trying to find a method which allows me to estimate $Var_{\mathbb{Q}}\left(\frac{S_{t_{i+1}}}{S_{t_i}}\right)$ where $S$ denotes the price process of an underlying stock (which has to be assumed ...
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Computing squared returns given differential equation for prices

I am looking for general advice on how to start tackling the problem below. My background in math is fairly bad when it comes to stochastic differential equations, but if you have any recommendations ...
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Variance covariance matrix - number of periods required

Hi I am reviewing the example of Barra risk model in the following document page 23 there is the statement: "Estimating a covariance matrix for, say, 3,000 stocks requires data for at least 3,...
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Annualzing the log of daily returns riddle

Two popular ways to measure returns are Arithmetic returns and Log returns. Let's define arithmetic (simple period) returns as: P(t) - P(t-1) / P(t-1). Let's define log return as Ln( P(t)/P(t-1) ) or ...
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Monte Carlo simulation based VaR: daily vs annual parameters

I am given the initial price, annualized return, and volatility of a security. I am trying to calculate annualized VaR using Monte Carlo simulation approach. To do this I will use the following ...
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Bootstrapping to Judge the Fit of a Sampled Return Distribution

Consider the following: I have sampled yearly stock returns from a specified distribution. What I want to do is compare how well my sampled distribution fits the empirical distribution of yearly ...
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174 views

Should log returns be used in multilinear regressions?

As the title already says, should log returns, instead of simple returns, be used in regression analysis? In this case, I want to analyse the impact of specific factors (Dividend yield etc.) on the ...
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307 views

Pandas: Close-to-Open return on stocks

I am trying to daily calculate the close-to-open return for j stocks for t days. Is there anyway I can calculate without using a for loop? I have one Dataframe for daily close prices and one for daily ...
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1answer
113 views

Returns and Factors for European Market Kenneth French Database

I am planning to estimate Fama-French model for mutual funds with European equity scope. I am thinking about using the European factors from Kenneth French database, which are computed in USD. The ...
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4answers
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Calculating log returns using R

I am trying to calculate the log returns of a dataset in R using the usual log differencing method. However, the calculated data is simply a vector of zeroes. I can't see what I'm doing wrong. Here ...
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Does forecasting asset returns by default assumes non-stationarity of asset returns?

If we assume the assets returns are stationary then the best forecast can only be the mean of the distribution. But if we assume non-stationarity we are forecasting the mean parameter (assuming ...
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What returns to use?

I have monthly returns of my portfolio... I would like to summarize the performance over a longer period in one overall figure. Should I use log returns per month then use geometric mean on the log ...
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What is the difference between squared returns and variance?

I am trying to calculate 1-day ahead volatility forecasts using the exponentially weighted moving average, however I am unsure on how to read the formula provided within Risk-Metrics Technical ...
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281 views

Calculating realized volatility of high-frequency data

I am wondering how to calculate the realized volatility. Sources such as say that the realized volatility is the sum of squared log returns sampled at a given frequency. So using 30 minute frequency ...
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1answer
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Computing Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs) $= \prod_{t=\tau_1}^{\tau_2}(1+R_{i,t}) - \prod_{t=\tau_1}^{\tau_2}(1+R_{m,t})$

I am doing an event study and wanted to know if was going about this correctly$$ \text{BHAR}_{i(\tau_1,\tau_2)}\quad=\quad\prod_{t=\tau_1}^{\tau_2}(1+R_{i,t})~-~\prod_{t=\tau_1}^{\tau_2}(1+R_{m,t}) $$ ...
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Generate P Value from stationary bootstrap following Politis & Romano (1994)

For my master thesis I am analyzing the performance of trading strategies. For this I need to avoid data snooping by utilising the FDR approach. I follow closely the procedure presented by Bajgrowicz &...
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Interpret predictions weekly and monthly stock price returns [closed]

I have built a model in R that predicts weekly and monthly returns of stock prices using regression trees, roughly based on https://www.r-bloggers.com/using-cart-for-stock-market-forecasting/. In my ...
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How does this return decomposition work?

http://image-src.bcg.com/Images/BCG-Value-Creators-2017-Appendix-July-2017_tcm9-166061.pdf The paper here decomposes total shareholder return into different components. Here is my derivation of the ...
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130 views

portfolio returns when portfolio value is negative

I am being very stupid probably but I don't understand the following. Portfolio 1st Jan valued: -$100 A month later Portfolio 1st Feb valued: -$45 I calculate the return of the portfolio as, <...
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679 views

Total Return Swaps and Borrow Cost Relationship

If an investor is long a Total Return Swap (TRS), they get the total return (ie, including dividend) performance and usually pay LIBOR minus a spread. This spread should trade ...
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Calculating intraday returns from imperfect data in R [closed]

The aim is to calculate minute returns in R. Given is minute price data in a tbl_df. A row was only added if there actually were trades. ...
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How to calculate equally weighted market portfolio

There's two studies that test the same thing in different markets (i.e. they apply the identical methodology). They state: 1) "$R_{mt}$ is the equally weighted average stock return in the dual-listed ...
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1answer
391 views

Empirical duration and convexity for bonds using linear regression

I have a given time series of bond yields from Quandl. From the time series, I have taken a sample to simulate a path of bond yields by Monte Carlo in Python. I have to do the following task: "...
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213 views

Have any other factor “styles” which explain equity returns been uncovered?

I know this is an inherently broad question, so I will attempt to clarify what I mean by factor "styles". I am not looking for a compendium of "anomalies", per se, but rather for categorical themes ...
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Portfolio return through beta [closed]

Considering the beta value of the three assets in my portfolio simulation and the weights of the assets, i have computed the beta of the portfolio itself. How can i calculate the expected return of ...
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Reasons for negative autocorrelation

I am working with intraday stock prices. I have found that the autocorrelation between the returns is negative (significantly so, but the value is very small). I am aware of how to interpret negative ...
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Ways to calculate daily returns

A complete rookie here. I'm currently reading Ernie Chan's 'Algorithmic Trading' and trying to recreate his results with quantstrat in R. Everything seems to be fine except for portfolio return ...
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Problems with Money Weighted Rate of Return [closed]

The market value of a small pension fund’s assets was 2.7m on 1 January 2000 and 3.1 m on 31 December 2000. During 2000 the only cash flows were: Bank interest and dividends totalling 125,000 ...