Questions tagged [returns]

The asset rate of returns is the profit on a particular investment; it includes any change in the asset value, interest, commission or dividends and so, all other cash-flows which an investors receive or pays due to the investment.

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283 views

Are cumulative returns stationary?

Log differenced returns, computed from stock prices, are known to be stationary. What about cumulative returns, are they also stationary? if not why not? Are there other properties, like non-i.i.d., ...
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47 views

How to deal with missing stock returns?

If I want to calculate the Covariance between two stocks but there are missing days in both, how can I deal with missing data? I want to use Pairwise deletion and only use the days of which both ...
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Calculate annualized returns and annualized volatility from monthly returns?

I have a dataset with monthly returns (In decimals) Jan-2008, Feb-2008 .... Dec-2008, Jan-2009 .... Dec-2017 This is what I have done, ...
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31 views

Excess Daily Returns to Excess Quarterly Returns

I am building a model which predicts the Excess Daily Returns over a time period. How do I convert these excess daily returns to excess quarterly returns? Should I just do an average of all the daily ...
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1answer
166 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial returns series, not just $\mu$ and $\sigma$?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
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Volatility of multimodal distribution of returns

Take $x_1, x_2, \ldots, x_T$ to be the price of a stock, indexed by $t=1, 2, \ldots, T$. Define rate of return at time $t>W$ for a window size of $W$ to be $$r_t = \frac{x_t - x_{t-W}}{x_{t-W}}$$ ...
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Portfolio models that maximize cumulative returns

Portfolio optimization typically looks at minimizing portfolio volatility, or maximizing the portfolio's Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return), but are there any recent, reasonable approaches to ...
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1answer
180 views

Why do cumulative returns have a bimodal distribution?

Regular returns (log-differenced prices) have statistical distributions that are bell-shaped and unimodal (one mode/peak) despite being non-normal and fat-tailed. Cumulative returns, on the other hand,...
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132 views

How to compute portfolio returns when constructing a dollar-neutral portfolio

I am trying to wrap my head around this statement: dollar-neutral portfolios are built: dollar amounts of both long and short positions are equal. Furthermore, it is also true at the stock level: ...
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211 views

How to annualize skewness and kurtosis of a forecasted distribution

I have a (non-normal) distribution of expected cumulative returns 10 quarters in the future, from which I have calculated mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. I would like to annualize ...
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Cumulative returns are more correlated than non-cumulative

I was just comparing two daily returns series and noted that the correlation between them is a lot higher if they are cumulated (about .95 for cumulative returns, vs .15 for non-cumulative). I feel ...
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115 views

Predict Log Stock Return Direction and Trading Strategy

The $k$ period log return is defined as $$r_{t}(k)=log(S_{t}/S_{t-k}),$$ Where $S_{t}$ is the stock closing price at time $t$. For argument sake, assume that by time I mean a stock trading day and ...
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Annualised returns and volatility for 3 month data

I have a portofolio with 30 indexes and I want to calculate the annulised returns and volatility because I want to compare it with another portofolio with different number of indexes (but same time ...
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Normality or Log-Normality of Regular Returns

Another old question on this site (How to simulate stock prices with a Geometric Brownian Motion?) inspired me to ask the following question: if we assume that regular returns could be normally ...
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1answer
48 views

Mutual fund performance over time

I am a little bit stuck with my dissertation thesis, so help will be greatly appreciated. I am trying to analyze the performance of different mutual funds, which I have classified according to ...
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How to simulate the cross-section

I am looking to simulate the whole cross-section of daily return series for 20 to 60 days. The purpose is to test some risk measures based no maximum drawdown. Thus, it needs the whole time series. ...
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130 views

Optimal predictors for 1-month returns

I am implementing a Random Forest classifier algorithm on Python for predicting future stock returns (one month). My goal is to foresee whether the cumulative returns in a month will be negative or ...
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Constructing a replicating portfolio of a long-only strategy using long-short factors

Lets say I want to estimate a replicating portfolio by doing a linear regression between the returns of a long-only portfolio and several long-short factors like Fama-French 5-factor or Betting ...
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25 views

PanelOLS or simple OLS?

It is probably a silly question but please assume the following. I gather hedge funds returns and I want to do a regression against few dependent variables (FF factors, etc.). In essence, I get a ...
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Get the weights of porfolio variance given standard deviation

I am trying to create a Simulated Portfolio Optimization based on Efficient Frontier on 50 stocks, which you can find the csv here. Yet it already takes me several minutes to get a suboptimal solution:...
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1answer
55 views

Is “time value of currency” to be accounted for in returns calculation?

A simple question: When exchanging currency in order to finance an investment, is it standard/best practice to adjusted for exchange rates when calculating the NPL of that investment? For example: I, ...
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384 views

Daily to Monthly Performance Attribution - Getting Effects to equal the Excess Return

I am building a performance attribution tool on Python to help us understand the asset allocation, stock selection effects of our fund. We are using daily price data for each component within the ...
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388 views

The use of volatility from log returns and raw return

As far as I know, we usually use log returns( $ln\frac{p_{t+1}}{p_{t}}$ ) in quantitative finance. For example, let's say we have lots of monthly log returns data, $R_m$. Then, we can get the mean ...
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Does asset volume, rather than asset returns, predict performance?

Asset returns are the most common data type used in finance. They are derived from closing price data. Ordinary level 1 data for stocks not only consists of closing prices, but also gross volume ...
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Fama Foundations of Finance today

Which could be a recent equivalent of Fama's book Foundations of Finance? By "equivalent" I mean a book which is rigorous, but without being a book on stochastic calculus; which is focused on stock ...
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Results of Fama MacBeth regression

I have run Fama MacBeth cross section regression of of Excess Return of stocks on Idiosyncratic volatility, the log of market capitalization, book to equity ratio and Beta. I'm getting all significant ...
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1answer
101 views

The ratio of upside deviation to downside deviation in portfolio weighting

I've been calling this ratio "acceleration" in my head, so I'll do the same in this post. The question is, is this relationship used anywhere and if so, how? My thought process is as follows. Risk ...
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130 views

Correct calculation of returns from a pairs trade

I am trying to understand how pairs trading works but I am confused about how to go about calculating the return on the pairs trade when I reverse my positions. I have been reading 'Pairs Trading - ...
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Stock returns: Exponential time decay

I am replicating some research that uses two years of single stock returns (i.e. N= 250*2= 500) and then applies an exponential decay with a half-life of one year to these returns. Does this mean ...
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is it possible to have a leverage ratio of less than 1?

I know you can leverage to be greater than 1, but is it possible to have less than 1? Like 0.5 for example? So that this scenario could be realized? ...
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How can I find the exit equity value from my dataset (please read description and see screenshot below)

I am investigating the returns of private equity using a public market equivalent (PME) and have been given a dataset from the that has provided us with the deal level IRR, the entry equity data and ...
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1answer
92 views

Compound the monthly returns to make them quarterly [closed]

How can someone make the Kenneth French library data returns quarterly from monthly? Since they are not loq returns, then you need to compound returns rather than summing them up. I want to make the ...
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61 views

How do I maximize my expected utility of wealth?

Suppose I have a utility function say $U(p)=p^{1/2}$ and I bet on a basketball game. I have my initial investment, payouts and probabilities of winning, how can I determine the maximum I need to bet ...
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76 views

How can a stock have negative returns but positive 3-factor alpha?

I've come across a research paper where for a specific period of time, the portfolio has negative returns (or roughly flat returns). During this same period of time, the portfolio's Fama-French 3-...
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1answer
227 views

Calculating the daily continuously compounded return from index values

Given I have 3 index values at time $t = 0, 1 , 2$, how would I go about calculating the daily continuously compounded return? Time: $ 0, 1, 2$ Index Values: $4000, 4086, 4114$ Any help would be ...
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1answer
53 views

How can I convert rolling annual returns back to quarterly returns?

I have a series of rolling annual returns and would like to convert these back to quarterly returns, which have not been provided. Is this possible formulaically, or is something like Excel's solver ...
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66 views

Statistical significance of mean returns between two portfolios

Suppose I have developed two versions ($A$ and $B$) of a factor model for ranking stocks. Both versions of the model use the same scoring system: stocks are percentile ranked within a given universe ...
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1answer
77 views

Incremental/marginal contribution to VaR in a simulation setting

Estimating marginal contributions to VaR in a simulation setting is apparently quite difficult (see e.g. this blog post) due to issues with sampling variability. My question is whether the following ...
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1answer
289 views

Returns on the Fama-French size sorted portfolios

For my thesis, I need to replicate a specific research paper in the field of empirical asset pricing, mentioning the CAPM in particular. The data mainly consists of monthly returns on portfolios ...
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Overnight and intraday returns of stock index and ETF seem inconsistent

Figure 2 of the 2019 paper "Celebrating Three Decades of Worldwide Stock Market Manipulation" shows that 29 Jan 1993 to 31 Oct 2019, overnight returns (from close to open) of SPY were 1232% while ...
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1answer
178 views

Calculating returns with trading costs

This perhaps is an over simplification of calculating trading returns while including trading costs. I've made some assumptions - the commission for investing and extracting an investment is 1% and 2% ...
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74 views

Closing prices are predicted very well but returns are predicted poorly

I'm learning some time series analysis and forecasting techniques, I've tried to predict stock prices for Netflix but I'm very confused. At first I've tried Auto ARIMA which gave me a straight line, ...
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37 views

calculating sharpe-ratio and annualized returns

Im trying to get the sharpe ratio to be calculated daily but I can only calculate it annually, this is also happening for my annualized returns, can somebody help me please? ...
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Time and asset weighted rate of return of a portfolio

If I have a portfolio with 3 initial assets on day 1 (say, stock 1 with beginning market value of \$100, stock 2 \$150 and stock 3 \$175) and after 10 days the stock 2 is sold for \$200, how can I ...
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83 views

How can I calculate returns for three investment strategy?

Assume that the price of DF stock went from a price of $104 on March 2 to 146 on April 1. With a current stock price of 146, there is a call option available on the DF stock with an exercise price ...
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1answer
66 views

Optimize risk return of portfolio

I have gathered stock prices from 15 companies over a year. I calculated the averages, yearly volatilizes, and the correlation matrix. I was asked to find the optimum weight for each stock with a ...
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1answer
136 views

pairs trading algorithm with returns

I'm having a difficulty grasping how to write a pair algorithm using returns instead of prices. With price differences, I have the mean difference over a long time period. When the current price ...
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1answer
83 views

Which returns to use for portfolio optimiaztion?

On the base of which returns do I have to derive optimal portfolio weights of an investment strategy? More specifically, do I have to use the excess returns or just the normal returns of the ...
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103 views

Is there an issue with estimating future returns from autocorrelated returns?

I have a time series $X_t$ generated from a standard GBM $$dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t$$ If I take the log returns over a rolling window of length $l$ $$r^{(l)}_i = \log \left( \frac{S_i}{...
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How to calculate Money-weighted Rate of Return when there are multiple negative cash flows during investment period?

I know that when there are multiple changes of sign in the sequence of cash flows of a project, the project may have multiple IRR, which render this criterion impractical. Therefore, in such ...

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