Questions tagged [risk-management]

The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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88 views

How to measure Steepener/Flattener/Butterfly sensitivity? (in 01)

This seems like a simple concept but I'm a bit lost. How can I calculate the dollar value sensitivity for a yield curve slope or butterfly position? I understand how DV01 can be calculated, but it ...
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1answer
108 views

Pragmatic question about use of Stress Tests/metrics

I have been looking at the onboarding of some derivative products, and the subject of our internal stress framework. I suspect like similar businesses, we have a set of stress scenarios, mostly based ...
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Reference request (Risk Management + Insurance Theory) [duplicate]

I have to study the following topics: Market and credit risk assessment models Technical risk assessment models: non-life and life Models for the valuation of bonds and for the determination of the ...
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39 views

What are some references for risk management of professional equity fund portfolios?

In particular, I am looking for methodologies for equity portfolios that are primarily managed by fundamental-based methods rather than quantitative strategies. Even though the portfolio is not based ...
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156 views

ML in Factor Models

I have recently learned about (implicit) factor models of the form: $$ R = Xf + \epsilon $$ where $R \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$ are security returns, $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times F}$ are factor loadings for ...
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2answers
91 views

Filtered Historical Simulation VaR for swaps

I am trying to understand how to calculate FHS VaR for a portofolio of vanilla swaps. I think I understand the main ideas behind FHS VaR and how to implement it for other assets such as equities. I ...
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1answer
83 views

How do I estimate the factor sensitivity in a Vasicek Single Factor Model?

I understand the formula of an asset return for an obligor i is given by the following: $$A_i = \sqrt{w_i}*Z + \sqrt{1-w_i}*\epsilon_i $$ My question is - How do I calculate $w_i$? I have the PD, LGD ...
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69 views

Risk-managing vanilla books (sell-side)

I am interested in learning more about how traders risk-manage books of vanilla options. I presume there should be a fairly standard list of facts. For the moment, the area of interest is FX, as ...
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42 views

What is an appropriate Risk Metric for Portfolio Construction when returns are predicted instead of using mean returns?

I am trying to build a portfolio management system as my college project, and the approach I have chosen is that of combining machine learning and mathematical optimization. I am using weekly data. ...
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116 views

How do you hedge your inventory when doing arbitrage?

Say I want to do arbitrage between Exchange A and Exchange B on USD/AAPL. This requires that I hold equal parts USD and AAPL. I don't want exposure to the movement in AAPL. How do I hedge my AAPL ...
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Is this an Example where Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) is not useful for a Stop-Loss?

Below is an attached screenshot of a scatter plot of a long position Percentage Return of a Asset Security on the Y-axis, and the Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE) Percentage on the X-axis. Green dots ...
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Industry standards for vol control index options

Consider an index of the type: $I(t)/I(t-1) = 1+ a(t) (S(t)/S(t-1)-1)+(1-a(t))r(t-(t-1))$ It is arbitrarily initialized. $r$ is the risk free rate. a(t) is determined piecewise as: $a(t)=s_{target}/s_{...
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56 views

Maximum Adverse Excursion Formula - Short Trade Position?

Is the formula for the Maximum Adverse Excursion for a Short Selling Trade the (Open - High) / Open, or (High - Open) / Open ?
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587 views

Quantifying climate change risk

I am looking for resources on applicable and practical solutions for estimation and quantifying climate change risk from asset owners perspective (for example, a portfolio of equity, fixed income, and ...
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47 views

Testing severity of VaR by changing portfolio component weights

Let's assume that I have a portfolio with two components:$$\omega_i = 0.3$$ $$\omega_j = 0.7$$ I also have two P&L vectors, $v_i$ and $v_j$ each containing 1000 P&Ls. I would like to play ...
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How to "best" exit multiple trades?

Let say I have N opened trades (N = s + b) that are partialy hedged, and paritaly not. In general s != b. Some of them are market sell orders (s), and the rest of them are market buy orders (b). They ...
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1answer
104 views

What is the market share of MSCI Barra Equity Model?

My understanding is that MSCI/Barra's model has a very large market share in funds and banks, but I cannot find out how large is the exact market share. Is there any data on this, or can someone ...
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348 views

Quick rule of thumb for DV01 and CS01 calculations

If someone tells me there is a IRS and a CDS both with 10M notional and 5y maturity, is there a reliable quick calculation that I could easily do mentally to approximately calculate their ...
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97 views

Non financial risk management

I am looking for some discussion papers, research insights on the Digital risk for fintech companies, bank etc. what they should. consider when offering their services (banking, lending etc.) ...
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142 views

Dependence between Credit Default Risk and Credit Spread Risk

I am trying to understand the difference and similarities between Credit Spread Risk and Credit Default Risk. Here is brief (and not all too precise) definition. Credit Spread Risk: Losses due to ...
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55 views

Modigliani risk-adjusted performance - marginal contribution

I would like to carry out risk-adjusted return attribution using the M^2 excess return, such that i can express M^2 excess return = risk free rate + sharpe ratio x benchmark vol - benchmark return in ...
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47 views

Martingale corrections to historical Value at Risk?

I am looking for a bit of advice. I have recently used to a new firm, which uses Value at Risk in a manner that is unfamiliar from previous places I have worked that I find less than ideal. Previous, ...
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23 views

Q determined by the market in Binomial Model

I read in a book about change of measure, so that the discounted stock price in a binomial model is equal to the current price. Namely: $$E_{Q}[S_{1}/ \beta |S_{0}]= S_{0} $$ It then says: " Q is ...
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95 views

Why not calculate Kelly using semivariance? As w Sortino

Kelly is calculated as mu / sigma^2. If we remove our highest performing returns from our calculations this actually increases our Kelly leverage, which does not make sense to me. A less profitable ...
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Calculate core deposit bucket percentages

I need to forecast core deposits in a commercial bank. One technique that I saw consists in dividing the amounts in buckets and applying a percentage to each bucket to obtain the core deposit. For ...
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74 views

Standard market risk platform Value-at-Risk (VaR)

if possible, could you share publicly available methodological guides/pamphlets or post links to specialised websites which give sufficient detail of the basic assumptions, algorithms and possible ...
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42 views

Calculating performance decay of a strategy

Came across this thread which basically advises t-test for difference in means across periods to calculate whether our edge is deteriorating. The catch being that this test will probably not be ...
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1answer
89 views

Estimating VaR of bond due to changes in the US yield curve

I am attempting estimate the 99% 10-day VaR of an investment grade bond due to changes in the US yield curve. The data provided is the daily prices of the bond over time. In addition I have the Daily ...
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1answer
127 views

Correlation for Trading vs. Risk Management

Assume a portfolio that contains some asset A and that I am contemplating hedging my delta in A by taking a position in asset B. I would determine how much of B to buy/sell based on the linear ...
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20 views

Variable transformation for probit regression model

I am trying to understand a credit rating model which is used in my company to assess company customers with large exposures. This model is provided by Moody's and assigns grades (similar to Aaa, Aa1, ...
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1answer
87 views

Equivalence of Standard Deviation and Variance as a risk measure - WRONG?

In Modern Portfolio Theory, I often see that people seem to view Standard Deviation and Variance as equivalent. Example from Markowitz himself: "Thus far I have used the standard deviation ...
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81 views

From annualized Sharpe Ratio to number of daily losses

I have seen a few statements that link a particular annualised Sharpe Ratio to the likely frequency of 'loss day' across a given period: e.g. "A annualised Sharpe Ratio of X, implies the ...
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37 views

Do equity mutual funds typically have industry-level diversification constraints? [closed]

For instance, are there limits to how concentrated a portfolio in terms of industry allocation? If so, where can I find such information about the constraints each fund has?
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110 views

Risk measurement of multicallable bonds

Assume you have bought a multicallable bond where the issuer has the right to redeem the notional at various dates, e.g. a $10$ yr maturity, $5$% coupon yearly and each year one call date. Next, ...
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84 views

How to calculate contributions to the granularity adjustment

In the Basel pillar 2 framework a granularity adjustment is introduced. While the capital requirements in pillar 1 do not take concetrations into account, this is meant to be covered with this ...
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13 views

How to model run-off ratio for non-defined maturity deposit?

I'm trying to model run off ratios for different deposit products as well as how long it takes to lose all deposits, would anyone please suggest any methodology? In addition, would I be able to define ...
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37 views

Implications of modeling operational risks without frequency distribution

When modeling operational risk, the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) is widely used. Usually, we model the loss frequency distribution and the loss severity distribution and then aggregate both to ...
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60 views

Exercise on Delta-Neutal-Hedging

Suppose you have three positions in the following assets in euros: long on 10.000 calls (maturity T = 3 months, strike= 0.55, Delta (1 call) =0.533), short on 210000 calls (maturity T = 3 months, ...
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75 views

Resources for Bayesian methods

I will be joining a risk management firm in a few months, and I was wondering if some of you could help we with resources on certain methods. Some of the things that I would be called upon to work on ...
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62 views

Optimal withdrawal rate based on alpha and drawdown

My trading returns is about 50% monthly(alpha) and maximum drawdown is about 20%. Is there a mathematical way to define the optimal withdrawal rate X%(say when profit level reach y%) to avoid risk of ...
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3answers
559 views

Deep Reinforcement Learning in Quant Finance?

I've been struggling to find engaging papers on the application of deep reinforcement learning in quantitative risk analysis, portfolio management, algorithmic trading and/or options pricing. What are ...
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26 views

What is the shadow cost of capital for a bank?

With regard to banks RWAs (risk weighted assets), what does it mean a trade leads to a positive shadow cost of capital?
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93 views

how do we use portfolio optimization to hedge an existing portfolio?

I am working on a risk management project and want to create a custom hedge portfolio to add on to an existing portfolio. I am wondering how do we treat the existing portfolio in the optimization ...
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44 views

Extreme value theory in QRM: Lemma 5.16 from Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools

From the slides: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/qrmtutorial/qrm/master/slides/qrm_05.pdf Lemma 5.16 Assume, for some $u$, $F_u(x) = G_{\xi, \beta}$ for $0 \leq x < x_F - u$. Then $F_v(x) = G_{\...
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1answer
62 views

VAR interpretation

I definitely struggle to understand the following interpretation of VAR (value at risk) provided by Jorion $$VAR(c)=E[X]−Q(X,c)$$ where $X$ is a random variable, $E[X]$ its expected value, $Q(X,c)$ ...
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81 views

How to set a portfolio turnover ratio threshold according to volatility?

With the various crises affecting the financial markets, here a pandemic, this ratio skyrockets almost every time, which limits its interpretability. We know that the ratio increased during the ...
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44 views

How to link market risk and the transition to the new risk-free rates?

I'm a market risk analyst intern and I've the opportunity to do a project related to it. So I would like to move towards SOFR and €ster transitions, I have seen quite a lot of documentation on this ...
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169 views

The best "risk measure" for an investor who does not want to lose any of his seed money

Question There is an investor who is afraid of losing any of his seed money (initial investment). Variance of investment returns is not a problem to him. He is willing to take variance as long as he ...
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1answer
251 views

Code (Python or R) references for operational risk models (AMA/COM)

I have to build an operational risk model and to be compliant with Basell II and III regulations I thought of using AMA (Advanced measurement approach) or COM (change of measurement). We have no ...
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1answer
491 views

Core Deposits when modelling Non-Maturity Deposits according to IRRBB

When modeling Non-maturity deposits (NMDs) the Basel Committee suggests the following (see 31.109 of the guidelines): Banks should distinguish between the stable and the non-stable parts of each NMD ...

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