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Questions tagged [risk-management]

The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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subadditivity of VaR

It is known that the VaR (Value at risk) doesn't fulfill subadditivity, i.e. $VaR(X)+VaR(Y) \le VaR(X+Y)$ But for elliptical distributions subadditivity is true. Questions: (1) Which ...
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Non-parametric estimator - CVAR / Expected shortfall

Is the estimation of the CVAR using known non-parametric methods (histogram , kernels) is different than the estimation of any other R.V.? If the answer is yes, then I am interested to know whether ...
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70 views

Modelling the Cost of Risk

I would like to read something about the cost of risk. Could anyone recommend some reference about how it is calculated or modelled?
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35 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
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187 views

Quantitative risk management strategy for a large participant in an illiquid market

Are there any practical quantitative risk management strategies for a large participant in an illiquid market with a few dominant players? By a large partcipant I mean someone who has significant ...
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53 views

Pricing default risk in cryptos

I'm looking to figure out how to price "insurance" against a counter-party defaulting in an OTC cryptocurrency transaction. I think the first measure would be to calculate VaR? I'm planning on ...
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32 views

z-score of an active return with a no-volatility benchmark

I don't know how to approach the problem I am having. Basically, the statement I am trying to make is: the fund's return is X standard distribution away from the mean. Normally, for a single fund, ...
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42 views

VaR decomposition of non-normal portfolio by g-and-h distribution

According to Doowoo Nam (2013), VaR of non-normal portfolio returns approximated by g-and-h distribution can be decomposed pretty much in the same way as the VaR of a portfolio with normal returns. ...
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456 views

Optimal weights for portfolio optimisation (r)

The question is what R optimization could be applicable to find a vector of weights that when, multiplied by S matrix creates equal rows sums, and when set in the objective function returns the ...
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237 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
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86 views

In May of 2005, several large hedge funds had speculative positions in CDO tranches

These hedge funds were forced into bankruptcy. This was due to: the correct answer is: Long Mezzanine and Short Equity Tranche position when correlation of Mezzanine tranche decreased. Can anyone ...
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299 views

Vol surface changes as underlying moves

We market make in highly liquid, near term options markets. I want to build a risk report that tells us how our portfolio's greeks will change as the underlying moves. This is for risk management in ...
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Want to understand the links and relationship between all the risk metrics?

For Example : if Risk weighted asset (RWA) increased or decreased this month, which other risk metrics could have influenced RWA to increase or decrease. Also in different situations like, upward ...
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534 views

Modified duration in multi-currency portfolio

I was thinking about how to figure aut duration for portfolio of bonds denominated in different currencies… I would like to compare sensitivity of portfolio to shift of yield with competitive ...
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217 views

Risk measures, Risk Management and Financial Risk Area

I'm currently searching material about market risk and I learned about coherent risk measures, VaR, CVaR (or expected shortfall), volatility. All that because I have to make a Financial Risk Area for ...
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166 views

Beta distribution - Holding period

Let's say I have a risk factor that is defined between [0,1], such as recovery rates. Assuming I have daily data, I can estimate the "daily VaR", i.e. the tails over 1 day period, since the data is ...
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239 views

regarding Basel III IRB method for credit risk

Would the exposures between standard method and internal rating based method for credit risk under Basel III remain same?I could not find any documents for IRB approach under Basel III. Is it still ...
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60 views

Statistical methods to compare two financial series data

I have two financial series data, x and x', where x' was formed form ...
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15 views

DCCfit speed up formula

I am estimating the covariance matrix by using GARCH DCC model with function dccfit from package rmgarch. My code is something like: library(rugarch) library(rmgarch) ...
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36 views

Cramer-Lundberg: Adjustment coefficient does not exist

The question is about Ruin theory and the Cramer-Lundberg model. I am wondering if there is an example of distribution where the MGF is finite, but the adjustment coefficient does not exist. Can you ...
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46 views

How can I find what Loss Given Default to use

I want to come up with the appropriate loss given default for a commodity derivative in my CVA calculation. would anyone know where I can find this information?
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178 views

Berkowitz test for CVaR backtesting

I want to test CVaR using the Berkowitz test (focus on the left tail). I have a couple of doubts: Do I need to transform only actual losses that are above CVaR; In the first transformation, whether ...
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66 views

Calculate VaR using the extreme value theory

I am trying to calculate the Value at Risk for different models. But I am now confused for some reason. Could you please help me? I calculate the 1% and 5% VaR (so negative numbers) and I am also ...
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131 views

Portfolio risk decomposition using historical data: which weights to use for assets?

I am trying to decompose portfolio risk given historical returns of each asset in the portfolio. For a basic 2 asset portfolio, the portfolio risk is given as $$σ_p^2 = w_x^2 \cdot σ_x^2+ w_y^2 \...
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92 views

Net Exposure of FX Future

I'm a software developer currently working for an asset manager in their Risk department. I'm looking at Currency Futures and have a question I was hoping someone could put me right on. If I have a ...
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74 views

Inference on bootstrap confidence intervals for VaR

I have calculated the confidence intervals of the VaR for two assets using iid bootstrap. I compute VaR using historical simulation (non-parametric). So I have two bootstrap confidence intervals (in ...
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266 views

Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA) - understanding issues

Having trouble with understanding the logic of FVA. Let's assume that as a trader I trade with a client an uncollateralised fx forward. Then, I hedge my position with "risk-free" bank with which I ...
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160 views

Liquidity horizons of risk factors categories

I'm reading the consultative document of the BCBS on the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs265.pdf Table 2 on page 16 shows the liquidity horizons for 5 broad risk ...
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317 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
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Methodologies behind shocking a composite index instrument, what assumption distinguishes these?

Suppose I have a composite index (rebalancing or non-rebalancing) that at present time has some base value $B_{\text{base}}$ in some base economy. I am in the process of shocking the economy on which ...
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68 views

Commercial Vendors for Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization and Performance Attribution

So this question is directly about companies such as Axioma, Barra, Northfield, and etc. that provide risk management, portfolio optimization, and performance attribution related services. I want to ...
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20 views

Multiple similar values simulation

Perhaps some of you came across the following task that I am trying to automate for @RISK, VOSE or other simulation software? I have a question as we are trying to use the software to estimate the ...
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122 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
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645 views

How to calculate global exposure via commitment approach for FX swaps?

How would you calculate global exposure for FX swaps using the commitment approach? In particular, would you take into account both legs? CESR guidelines (CESR/10-788) defines that the exposure for ...
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Standard errors clustered along the time dimension in pooled panel logit model

I'm trying to estimate a logit model on pooled panel data set (unit of observation is firm-year). My dependant variable is default indicator and I have several macro variables as independant variables....
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Doubt on risk cost criterion

I want to minimize some kind of risk sensitive cost. But, I am confused what cost criterion should I use. I am aware of only expected exponential utility. I want to know what are the other such ...
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62 views

proper choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion

Suppose I want to minimize certain risk sensitive cost. Is it a valid question to ask what is the proper (also in which sense) choice of risk aversion parameter in the risk-sensitive cost-criterion ? ...
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113 views

How to show that the risk contribution function is or is not injective?

Assume a portoflio $w \in \mathbb{R}^n$, you can get the total risk contribution $\psi_i$ of asset $i$ by doing: $$\psi_i = w_i \frac{\partial \sigma(w)}{\partial w_i}= \frac{1}{\sigma(w)} \left[ w_i^...
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Market Exposure and Hedging

Normally the Market exposure associated with your stock/portfolio is your delta for that stock/ portfolio. Basic idea of hedging involved here is buying/selling respective futures depending upon ...
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Risk mapping a zero-coupon bond portfolio

I'm trying to understand example 2.6 taken from McNeil and Embrechts "Quantitative Risk Management". The example consists of obtaining the risk mapping of a portfolio of $d$ zero-coupon bonds. The ...
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Full Revaluation vs Factor-based Model for risk management

I am looking for literature on comparison of these two approaches. It looks like many places are using some type of Factor-based Model (Barra, Axioma, Northfield, etc.) for risk management purposes. ...
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Reference: Journal on Risk Measures

I'm wondering, where can I find a list of the journals which specialize (partly) in publishing risk-measure related topics? If no such standard list exists, what are some top and mid-tier journals ...
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35 views

GARCH(1,1) and Value at Risk: Rolling window or non-overlapping samples

Currently studying on financial risk management. I want to test different methods of VaR estimation. I want to model volatility using a GARCH(1,1) model. My question is what should the size of the ...
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42 views

Calculating daily underlying move from options volatility?

My broker has provided a risk report that shows our options book shocked at various standard deviation moves of the underlying. Their report has the future at $66.64, ATM Vol at 23.74% with 2 days ...
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56 views

Constrained Optimization for performance attribution

I am trying to perform constrained opmitization for portfolio performance attribution analysis. Specifically, I am trying to determine the impact of sectors performance on the S&P 500 index. Min ...
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92 views

Backtest Portfolio Analysis

I actually finished an algorithm that i can use to extract all the trades for each stock (each file for each stock). Essentially, i run this code on Excel where there are the input about one stock, ...
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71 views

How to compute the portfolio risk when weights are negative?

In QMiF (p. 239) , the variance of a portfolio is defined as: V(R) = w'Vw = w'DCDw = x'Cx Does this formula hold if the weights are negative (i.e., short)? For example, if I have a 5x5 covariance ...
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53 views

CreditGrades model calibration and initial values

Currently doing a project on structural models, and I want to apply the CreditGrades model. My question is what values are the parameters going to take, in order to update the implied probability of ...
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Jump diffusion model and Firm probability of default

I want to examine whether corporate events affect firm's probability of default. My initial thought was a jump diffusion model, although in the literature, the only work I found, involved CDS market ...
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question concerning SMM and CPR in prepayment model

assume that I have a monthly time series of SMMs (single-month mortalities) $(SMM_t)_{t \in \{1,\dots,T\}}$. My goal is to determine one single CPR (constant prepayment rate) from that. I see two ...