Questions tagged [risk-management]

The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks, followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

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8 answers
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How does the "risk-neutral pricing framework" work?

I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you? Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
Jack Kada's user avatar
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47 votes
5 answers
4k views

What are the key risks to the quantitative strategy development process?

Prompted in part by this question on data snooping, I would be interested to know: What are the key risks that should be considered when developing a quantitative strategy based on: (a) historical ...
Shane's user avatar
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39 votes
2 answers
12k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar
27 votes
4 answers
3k views

How are risk management practices applied to ML/AI-based automated trading systems

A potential issue with automated trading systems, that are based on Machine Learning (ML) and/or Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the difficulty of assessing the risk of a trade. An ML/AI algorithm ...
Kiril's user avatar
  • 905
22 votes
2 answers
1k views

How do macro funds manage risk and model asset returns? Do they use factor models?

Some of the largest funds in the world are entirely macro-based: Soros, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater. They trade across asset classes, and seemingly with very concentrated allocations. What type of risk ...
gappy's user avatar
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21 votes
4 answers
4k views

What books should any quantitative portfolio manager or risk manager have as reference? [closed]

I'm interested to know what are the critical reference texts you rely on for portfolio or risk management? I mean those texts that you come back to because they are chock full of insight and know-how. ...
18 votes
3 answers
5k views

Papers about risk management in algorithmic trading?

I am currently doing my research for my master thesis, which will clearly focus on the question of risk managment in algorithmic trading systems. I have done research about this topic and found some ...
Carol.Kar's user avatar
  • 482
16 votes
12 answers
168k views

How to calculate unsystematic risk?

We know that there are 2 types of risk which are systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk can be estimate through the calculation of β in CAPM formula. But how can we estimate the ...
Norlyda's user avatar
  • 169
16 votes
2 answers
6k views

Modelling with negative interest rates

For a project, I am interested to model the impact of recently negative interest bonds on the portfolio. The literature on modelling negative interest rates is limited, and the only theory I could ...
user7056's user avatar
  • 728
16 votes
3 answers
5k views

How to compute the Value-at-Risk of the sum of two dependent lognormal random variables?

Hy I posted this question first at mathflow.net they suggested me this page, which I was not aware of. Question Let $(X_1,X_2)$ be a multivariate normal random vector ($X_1$ and $X_2$ need not be ...
bobbey's user avatar
  • 163
15 votes
1 answer
1k views

Quantifying climate change risk

I am looking for resources on applicable and practical solutions for estimation and quantifying climate change risk from asset owners perspective (for example, a portfolio of equity, fixed income, and ...
AK88's user avatar
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14 votes
4 answers
27k views

How to construct a Risk-Parity portfolio?

If I would like to construct a fully invested long-only portfolio with two asset classes (Bonds $B$ and Stocks $S$) based on the concept of risk-parity. The weights $W$ of my portfolio would then be ...
Karamos's user avatar
  • 143
14 votes
1 answer
638 views

Consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics simulation

I am interested in references on research regarding the consistency of economic scenarios in nested stochastics for risk measurement. Background: Pricing by Monte-Carlo: For pricing complex ...
g g's user avatar
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13 votes
1 answer
2k views

Risk management tools for long term Gamma/Vega sellers subject to margin calls

TL;DR: if you're a retail investor and you systematically sell long-term vertical spreads while staying Delta-neutral, your main risk comes from Vega and the Gamma of opening gaps that can throw you ...
Lisa Ann's user avatar
  • 2,121
12 votes
4 answers
65k views

What are some examples of non-financial risks and contingency plans?

There are many online sources about common risk factors in investing and trading e.g. market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk. There are various factor models (Fama-French, Carhart) and risk ...
Joshua Chance's user avatar
12 votes
2 answers
3k views

How to apply risk-parity portfolio construction to a dollar-neutral portfolio?

Long-only risk-parity portfolios have proliferated in recent years. An optimized long-only risk-parity portfolio requires that the asset weight * marginal contribution to risk of the asset is ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar
12 votes
2 answers
2k views

Examples of Spectral Risk Measures

Let's take the usual definition of a spectral risk measure. If we look at the integral we see that spectral risk measures have the property that the risk measure of a random variable $X$ can be ...
vanguard2k's user avatar
  • 2,915
12 votes
1 answer
432 views

Regression in liquidity risk model of Jarrow/Protter

In the paper "Liquidity Risk and Risk Measure Computation" authors describe a linear supply curve model for liquidity risks in presence of market impact, i.e. impact-affected asset price $S(t,x)$ is ...
Alexey Kalmykov's user avatar
12 votes
1 answer
1k views

A non parametric study of VaR with kernel density

I'm working in order to compare the calculation of the VaR between the methodology of copulas and kernel density, all this by using the software r. The process that I follow is: Obtain a sample (...
user avatar
11 votes
2 answers
3k views

Links to the risk model methodologies of the major providers?

There is quite a bit of art in constructing an equity risk model. This paper summarizes some of the key decisions: choice of factors, horizon matching, cross-sectional vs. time-series method, and ...
11 votes
1 answer
748 views

copula-marginal algorithm

has there been any interesting work or advances on the copula-marginal algorithm (CMA) as proposed by Attilio Meucci. I am unable to find anything on the web other then the original article, here is ...
pyCthon's user avatar
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10 votes
3 answers
11k views

What is the best alternative of Quantlib library

We need to build a Fixed Income Portfolio Risk Analytics solution. Somehow due to administrative reason we can't use Quantlib which is written in C++, even call it through SWIG via JNI. We have tried ...
pmr's user avatar
  • 335
10 votes
1 answer
462 views

What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?

Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns. Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
user2303's user avatar
  • 537
10 votes
2 answers
2k views

Hierarchical Risk Parity with allocation constraints?

In the really interesting paper by Marcos Lopez de Prado a variation of risk parity is applied whereby the underlying assets of the portfolio are first split in 'correlation clusters' and the ...
sen_saven's user avatar
  • 441
10 votes
4 answers
1k views

Hedge Fund risk management on a daily basis

Since Hedge Funds/Fund of Funds report on a monthly basis usually within 10 days after the month end, monitoring and managing (hedging) potential risks is quite a difficult task. Having done some ...
wannabe's user avatar
  • 101
10 votes
2 answers
1k views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
Richi Wa's user avatar
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10 votes
4 answers
373 views

When did volatilities start to smile in capital markets?

Glimpsing through literature, I read that volatilities in the equity market started to display a smile after the crash in 1987. But when did volatilities start to smile in capital markets?
user40989's user avatar
  • 203
9 votes
1 answer
1k views

Monte carlo portfolio risk simulation

My objective is to show the distribution of a portfolio's expected utilities via random sampling. The utility function has two random components. The first component is an expected return vector ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar
9 votes
2 answers
3k views

How to annualize Expected Shortfall?

I have a time series with monthly data from which I compute the expected shortfall empirically, following the classical definition which can be found, for example, in wikipedia's definition. That is, ...
SRKX's user avatar
  • 11.1k
9 votes
2 answers
1k views

CDS spread scenarios from historical market data

I'm searching for information on the best way to generate scenarios to be used in VaR or ES calculations, for CDS spreads. Given that we need significant historical data in order to achieve a decent ...
UmaN's user avatar
  • 523
8 votes
5 answers
11k views

What to use as portfolio diversification measure?

Suppose that we have a portfolio of $n$ assets. A perfectly diversified portfolio is one in which each asset has equal weights, i.e. each asset has weight $\frac{1}{n}$. Of course this is usually not ...
Wintermute's user avatar
8 votes
4 answers
2k views

Is there anyone still using Markowitz modern portfolio theory?

I was reading about the MPT (Use standard deviation as risk measure) on "Mathematics for Finance by Marek Capinski". I was just wondering is there anyone actually applying this theory to their ...
devon's user avatar
  • 181
8 votes
2 answers
945 views

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia?

Is there any research on applying state-space or dynamic linear models to forecasting equity risk premia on a security-by-security basis with a medium term horizon (say 3 month to 12 months horizon)? ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar
8 votes
1 answer
2k views

Value at Risk backtesting (kupiec)

I m doing my research on estimating Value at risk using different assumptions on volatility and then compare my results based on backtesting. I obtained results and just on question based on my ...
joe888's user avatar
  • 81
8 votes
2 answers
361 views

How to perform risk budgeting for non-linear portfolios?

I am using this question to compute optimal weights following a risk budgeting approach. The problem is I am using non-linear portfolios (options,equity,fixed income,fx). What I am looking for is ...
FernandoG's user avatar
  • 118
8 votes
3 answers
305 views

New ways of communicating risk

One of the scapegoats of the financial crisis was value at risk. Still communicating risks effectively to clients is a big challenge and hugely important (also to keep your job as a quant!) In this ...
vonjd's user avatar
  • 27.4k
8 votes
1 answer
573 views

Which is a more appropriate choice of risk measurement in a utility function, CVaR or VaR?

What is the consensus on which risk measure to use in measuring portfolio risk? I am researching what is the best risk measure to use in a portfolio construction process for a long/short option-free ...
Ram Ahluwalia's user avatar
7 votes
3 answers
2k views

Which is riskier: a call option or the underlying?

From Joshi's Quant Interview Questions and Answers: What is riskier: a call option or the underlying? (Consider a one day time horizon and compute which has bigger Delta as a fraction of value). I ...
Trajan's user avatar
  • 2,502
7 votes
1 answer
528 views

What is the optimal strategy when there is an equal chance for gain or loss but the size of the potential gain is larger?

I'm investigating a situation where the chance for gain or loss is the same, but the amount gained is greater than the amount that is lost. For example, the gain would be about 30% of the trade ...
Ray's user avatar
  • 503
7 votes
3 answers
2k views

What position-sizing methods are used in futures trading?

Beyond optimal / partial f and a few other older methods, there's very little information out there for futures trading.
dvegadvol's user avatar
7 votes
2 answers
1k views

Why is the variance of a portfolio a quadratic form?

I was reading about MPT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory and notices that the total variance of a portfolio is $x' \Sigma x$, where x is the weighting of the assets and $\Sigma$ ...
nickponline's user avatar
7 votes
4 answers
869 views

How to treat large (5K-10K) non-positive-definite (particularly near-singular) covariance matrices for Cholesky decomposition?

I have a very large covariance matrix (around 10000x10000) of returns, which is constructed using a sample size of 1000 for 10000 variables. My goal is to perform a (good-looking) Cholesky ...
acmh's user avatar
  • 71
7 votes
1 answer
570 views

What's the best way to test/validate an interest rate lattice model

I have some implementations of interest rate lattice models. I would like to verify their performance. What would be the best approaches? Currently I compare pricings of some interest rate dependent ...
John Smith's user avatar
7 votes
2 answers
5k views

Is Unexpected Loss ever used in Basel II?

In Basel II, EL is useful. It's calculated as $$EL = PD \cdot EAD \cdot LGD $$ in advance IRB (internal rate-based approach), Correlation $$R = 0.12 \frac{1 – e^{-50 \cdot PD}}{1 – e^{-50}} + 0.24 ...
athos's user avatar
  • 2,231
7 votes
1 answer
666 views

Are there any well known methods of testing through-the-cycle rating systems?

Rating systems, as defined by the Basel II Accord, can be classified into two broad types - through-the-cycle (TTC) or point-in-time (PIT) - and the probability of default predicted by such a system ...
Mozan Sykol's user avatar
7 votes
2 answers
303 views

How many data points are required to perform a fitting of GPD?

A friend of mine told me that their firm is using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to compute value of the Expected Shortfall 99% of a portfolio for their asset allocation process. To do so, they try to fit ...
SRKX's user avatar
  • 11.1k
7 votes
2 answers
957 views

Exposure calculation of a re-coupon swap

How to calculate the exposure of a recoupon swap (when the MTM of an i.r. swap is settled and the fixed rate is reset to the prevailing swap rate for the residual maturity). It's used to reduce the ...
Hedonist's user avatar
7 votes
0 answers
199 views

Intuition behind the Carr and Wu (2014) static hedging for ordinary options

Let $(S_t)_{t \geq 0}$ be the price of an underlying asset, $r$ be the risk-free rate of return, $q$ the dividend yield, $C_t(K,T)$ is the price of a call option written on $S_t$ at time $t$ with ...
Stéphane's user avatar
  • 2,456
6 votes
3 answers
181 views

Which lags or percentiles should be run in a batch when calculating Value-at-Risk?

Are there any "standard" VaR calculations run in a batch? For example, testing a VaR calculation with a lag of 1,2, 5 or 10 days over 2 years? Same question for the percentile, 1%, 2.5%, 5% etc.
ghostJago's user avatar
  • 163
6 votes
2 answers
405 views

Is it common to use multiple brokers for risk reduction?

Would it be considered appropriate risk-management or overkill to utilize multiple brokers to manage a given trading strategy? A couple specifics: I'm interested in what a reasonably-sized hedge ...
G__'s user avatar
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