Questions tagged [risk-models]

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63 views

Demonstration of the Schweinler-Wigner Orthogonalization procedure

Can anyone give me a practical demonstration of the Schweinler-Wigner Orthogonalization procedure? The steps of performing it or possibly a code snippet. The Schweinler-Wigner Orthogonalization ...
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1answer
51 views

Absolute and Relative Value at Risk

Is it correct to calculate the VaR as 99% max between loss and profit. E.g. if 99% VaR on the loss side of the distribution is -100, and on the positive side of the distribution there is a value ...
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1answer
67 views

Stop-Loss strategies

Does anyone know some bibliography about the problems or limitations of using Stop-Loss strategies in a portfolio? Let me explain better: for example you can have a portfolio of 30 stocks from ...
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0answers
76 views

How to correctly simulate volatility shocks?

I am working on the comparison of different volatility timing/target strategies on portfolios starting from different conditions (data, asset classes, calculation of realized volatility, different ...
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1answer
78 views

Backtesting a stock scoring model

I'm working on a simple stock scoring model consisiting of 3 factors: 1.market cap 2.liquidity of the stock 3.the value at risk we defined 3 intervals for each factor and we assigned the ...
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1answer
72 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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45 views

Conceptual help - Machine Learning on finance data set [closed]

I am working on Anomaly detection model problem for a finance data set - set of gift card activation transactions. My team member suggested an idea that " First train the model with normal instances ...
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1answer
87 views

Barra model: why standardize the fundamental risk factors?

The two main types of risk factors included in the famous Barra model are called the "fundamental factors", and "industry factors," and the thing that I do not understand is why are only the former ...
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26 views

How to Risk and Return using Carhart 4 factor model

I have to calculate firm risk and return for a group of firms. I have firm CUSIPs. I also have access to CRSP data from WRDS. Can someone explain to me how I can use CRSP and data from Ken French’s ...
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1answer
158 views

Dominating credit risk modeling approaches for capital calculation in banks

In Basel/CRR (capital requirement regulation) there are various approaches for the estimation of capital requirements. For corporate exposures there is the Foundations IRB approach (F-IRBA, own ...
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1answer
84 views

Having only 2 Industry risk factors?

Is it possible to build a risk model that only has 2 industry risk factors? For example, if I wanted just Tobacco and Healthcare industries as risk factors can I do that? If I did that do I have to ...
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52 views

Factor Loading with multiple exposures?

How do I decompose portfolio exposures when assets may have exposure to a few of my risk factors? For instance I have some sector and state specific risk factors. If I have a bond with exposure to ...
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73 views

Barra Equity Risk Model Methodology

I am interested in learning about the Barra's Equity risk model methodology. When I google, this is the first file that comes up: http://www.alacra.com/alacra/help/barra_handbook_US.pdf However, it ...
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2answers
566 views

How to add Risks-Not-In-VaR (RNIV) to VaR under Basel III

I am trying to generate/prove the magnitude of the over-conservativeness of the regulatory VaR (internal models) under Basel III against what a more accurate VaR would be. However, I can't seem to ...
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29 views

GARCH, EGARCH, GJR with different distributions

I have estimated different models based on different distributions. Since they are not nested models of each other, I can't use LR tests. But how can I compare the models? Can I do something with the ...
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1answer
141 views

rationale for maturity adjustment formula in basel IRB formula

For capital requirement, rwa is computed as a product of terms including a K (unexpected losses). (As shown is the summary from wikipedia : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_IRB ) K is ...
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0answers
58 views

Regression model: short vs long history

There is a dilemma between choosing short history (1-2 years) and long history (5-10 years) for a regression model. Are there any resources that offer some findings on pros and cons of these two? From ...
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0answers
84 views

Why are thousand-ish-factor vendor risk models not extremely overfit and inaccurate?

Many vendor risk models have many hundreds, or even thousands of factors (many of which are highly correlated with each other). Underlying all these risk models is some sort of covariance matrix in ...
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0answers
62 views

Philosophy of Financial Risk [closed]

Do you think that there exists a framework on that you can build risk measures? What are the necessary and desirable properties of a risk measure? (necessary means compulsory and desirable means more ...
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0answers
122 views

Need to solve the stochastic differential equation of Vasicek Model

How to solve the stochastic differential equation of the Vasicek model for the analysis of credit risk? I search in the article "The Distribution of loan portfolio value" (Vasicek) but he doesn't ...
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3answers
205 views

How to estimate market based PD and LGD for small enterprises?

I am estimating CVA/DVA for derivatives... How to estimate PD and LGD (or RR) based on market data for the small enterprises, if there is no external rating for them and they don't have bonds or ...
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0answers
57 views

Markowitz models with uncertain returns

I am analyzing the Markowitz models with uncertain returns as follows: after calculating the expected returns and the covariances of 30 monthly historical series of 30 stocks, I resolve the Markowitz ...
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0answers
44 views

Does it make sense to subtract VaR from spot shocks?

I have a model to compute the Event Risk (in dollars) from a shock to the spot price of an asset. I also have the 10-day VaR PnL for the same assets returns. These two numbers are then aggregated to ...
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343 views

Full Revaluation vs Factor-based Model for risk management

I am looking for literature on comparison of these two approaches. It looks like many places are using some type of Factor-based Model (Barra, Axioma, Northfield, etc.) for risk management purposes. ...
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0answers
66 views

Hedging jump models with a infinite number of derivatives

First of all, I inform you that I am not a financial mathematician and have vague knowledge about an incomplete market. Stochastic volatility models are incomplete so derivatives cannot be ...
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0answers
511 views

Barra covariance matrix construction

I am trying to replicate the covariance matrix used by Barra risk models. All Barra models have half life parameters for volatilities and correlations (e.g. if the half life for volatlity is 90 days, ...
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1answer
74 views

Unit exposures to Country,Industry and World factors in Fundamental Factor Risk Models

I may have what can be called a rudimentary question about Fundamental Factor models for Risk (ala Barra). Why is the exposure to World,Countries,Industries set to 1 instead of a real number. The ...
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1answer
238 views

Why is the expected value of bias statistic one?

I have been reading about factor models recently. One of the ways in which the developer of these models (Barra/ Axioma) measure the accuracy of their models is by calculating the bias statistic for ...
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2answers
330 views

Physical commodity trading quantitative risk return model

I am very new to commodities, I was previously in portfolio management/optimization (Black Litterman Markowitz etc). I am now a Buy-Sell analyst for Petrochemicals, and need to understand the basic ...
4
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1answer
74 views

Measuring interest rate sensitivity for illiquid private investments?

There seems to be surprisingly little literature on this topic. If you had a portfolio consisting of an unlisted illiquid private asset class (eg private real estate, direct infrastructure or private ...
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1answer
343 views

Can portfolio Value-at-Risk be calculated analytically for multivariate t-distributed returns?

It is widely known that VaR is generally not sub-additive in all but the most restrictive cases (typically when a Gaussian return distribution is assumed, which fails when it matters the most). ...
4
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1answer
103 views

How do energy companies measure the magnitude of the risks of buying energy at a variable price and selling it at a fixed price?

Power and gas retailers are exposed to a variety of risks when selling to domestic customers. Many of these risks arise from the fact that customers are offered a fixed price, while the retailer must ...
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0answers
23 views

Modelling Specialised Lending deals

This question by itself is less a quant question but it has impact on the quantitative model to use. In 2006 CEBS gudilines we find a definition similar to this: Specialised Lending (SP) is a sub-...
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2answers
1k views

Hierarchical Risk Parity with allocation constraints?

In the really interesting paper by Marcos Lopez de Prado a variation of risk parity is applied whereby the underlying assets of the portfolio are first split in 'correlation clusters' and the ...
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2answers
57 views

Correlation or r-squared to determine if a stock has specific movement relative to an index?

In Excel you have the daily prices of all the stocks in the S&P 500 for 3 years; and the index itself. Using all the data how might you determine which stocks had company specific movement during ...
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2answers
639 views

It is possible to carry out the Component VaR decomposition through non parametric methodologies?

I would like to know if it is possible to break down the VaR risk (using historical and Monte Carlo methodology) among the portfolio assets just like the Component VaR concept in the parametric ...
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0answers
391 views

Altman Z-Score model for PD calculation [duplicate]

I am approaching you with one important for me question. I have a task to calculate probability of default for our clients. I used an Altman Z-Score model to calculate the Z-Scores for each client. ...
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0answers
168 views

Derivative and Credit Risk Modelling

I am looking at acquiring a system to help with multi-instrument modelling. Across the spectrum Equity/FI/Swap/Repo/CDS/FxSwap/Forward/Future/etc for vanilla and more complex derivatives. The modeling ...
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1answer
273 views

Calculating HIstorical VaR with short time series

Intuitively, Historical VAR is an approach which assumes that in the past data, we have observed everything that can happen, so we consider the worst case(tail). However, when your equity/instrument ...
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1answer
74 views

Decreasing dependence during the financial crisis?

In "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach" by Christoffersen et al. (2012), the authors present the concept of Conditional Diversification Benefit ...
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2answers
830 views

Portfolio risk analysis in Options & Mixed portfolios

I am currently working on a risk analysis model that is primarily focused on options portfolios, but will likely be later expanded to cover mixed (options, stocks, bond, futures, etc...) portfolios. ...
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0answers
486 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
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2answers
524 views

Modelling callable bonds in a risk model (historical simulation)

What is a best-practice example on how to model callable bonds in a risk model - I focus on historical simulation (HS). For plain-vanilla bonds the input factors for historical simulation could be ...
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0answers
125 views

Risk-neutral probabilities

I will use this theorem 3.2 from the book "Quantitative modeling of Derivative Securities" by Marco Avellandea: Theorem 3.2 - Assume that there is no arbitrage, i.e. there exists a risk neutral ...
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0answers
9k views

credit risk - How to calculate the probability of default (private companies)?

Part of my master thesis I am working with a company. I have the project to use their financial database with all the financials data (7 years) of approximately 3’000 companies. They have their own ...
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1answer
99 views

Want to understand the links and relationship between all the risk metrics?

For Example : if Risk weighted asset (RWA) increased or decreased this month, which other risk metrics could have influenced RWA to increase or decrease. Also in different situations like, upward ...
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0answers
60 views

The best way to generate market scenarios [closed]

What general approaches could you recommend for modeling spot rates(for different maturities) and forward rates?(eg for LIBOR) I need to generate scenarios for term-structure of interest rates. What ...
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1answer
90 views

How can I compare two mutual funds' performance with a sparse set of data?

I want to compare the performance of two mutual funds. The only data I have is annual returns for the past 7 years. So I have 7 observations for Fund 1 and 7 observations for Fund 2. In addition, I ...
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1answer
588 views

Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
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2answers
1k views

Quantitative Real Estate Investment Finance

I'm wondering if there is an application of quantitative finance to real estate investment? Specifically I'm wondering about models for pricing small neighborhoods (or even single houses) that take ...