Questions tagged [risk-models]

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908 views

Stochastic modelling of derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are common stochastic ...
4
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0answers
84 views

Why are thousand-ish-factor vendor risk models not extremely overfit and inaccurate?

Many vendor risk models have many hundreds, or even thousands of factors (many of which are highly correlated with each other). Underlying all these risk models is some sort of covariance matrix in ...
4
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0answers
9k views

credit risk - How to calculate the probability of default (private companies)?

Part of my master thesis I am working with a company. I have the project to use their financial database with all the financials data (7 years) of approximately 3’000 companies. They have their own ...
4
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0answers
167 views

Risk factors for derivatives on dividends

I consider pricing and risk analysis of derivatives on dividends of the members of equity indices (such as Dow Jones EuroStoxx). There are options but I focus on futures. What are the main risk ...
3
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0answers
89 views

Standard Assumption Terminology

Regulators are starting to analyse (or at least they are talking about it) model assumptions. We all know that too often our assumptions are just in the model documentation. Furthermore, we have no ...
3
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0answers
111 views

Benchmarking risk

Given the portfolio return $R$ and the benchmark return $B$, I want to define a risk indicator, measuring the ability to beat the benchmark ($R>B$), given the downside risk taken; the latter not ...
2
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0answers
31 views

Where could I find code to compute Potential Future Exposure

Ideally code in SAS, R, Python or Matlab for calculations involving counterparties holding positions in energy markets on multiple price curves, with a Monte-Carlo methodology or a simpified ...
2
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1answer
137 views

Stop-Loss strategies

Does anyone know some bibliography about the problems or limitations of using Stop-Loss strategies in a portfolio? Let me explain better: for example you can have a portfolio of 30 stocks from ...
2
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0answers
66 views

Hedging jump models with a infinite number of derivatives

First of all, I inform you that I am not a financial mathematician and have vague knowledge about an incomplete market. Stochastic volatility models are incomplete so derivatives cannot be ...
2
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0answers
187 views

Derivative and Credit Risk Modelling

I am looking at acquiring a system to help with multi-instrument modelling. Across the spectrum Equity/FI/Swap/Repo/CDS/FxSwap/Forward/Future/etc for vanilla and more complex derivatives. The modeling ...
1
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1answer
20 views

Quantitative risk management for energy markets

I'm currently preparing an exam about energy markets. The knowledge of notions of quantitative risk management accounts for the 50% of the total exam. During my university education, though, I didn't ...
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0answers
82 views

How to correctly simulate volatility shocks?

I am working on the comparison of different volatility timing/target strategies on portfolios starting from different conditions (data, asset classes, calculation of realized volatility, different ...
1
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1answer
108 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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62 views

Regression model: short vs long history

There is a dilemma between choosing short history (1-2 years) and long history (5-10 years) for a regression model. Are there any resources that offer some findings on pros and cons of these two? From ...
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0answers
180 views

Need to solve the stochastic differential equation of Vasicek Model

How to solve the stochastic differential equation of the Vasicek model for the analysis of credit risk? I search in the article "The Distribution of loan portfolio value" (Vasicek) but he doesn't ...
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61 views

Markowitz models with uncertain returns

I am analyzing the Markowitz models with uncertain returns as follows: after calculating the expected returns and the covariances of 30 monthly historical series of 30 stocks, I resolve the Markowitz ...
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0answers
45 views

Does it make sense to subtract VaR from spot shocks?

I have a model to compute the Event Risk (in dollars) from a shock to the spot price of an asset. I also have the 10-day VaR PnL for the same assets returns. These two numbers are then aggregated to ...
1
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0answers
23 views

Modelling Specialised Lending deals

This question by itself is less a quant question but it has impact on the quantitative model to use. In 2006 CEBS gudilines we find a definition similar to this: Specialised Lending (SP) is a sub-...
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0answers
532 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
1
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0answers
487 views

Market risk calculation for Fixed income position

I have come across a somewhat strange formula (atleast to me) for Value at Risk calculation for a Bond position. This typical formula looks like below: PnL = Beta * "Some industry Credit spread" * ...
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133 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
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0answers
62 views

Should portfolio be optimized by marking to the future than marking to market (excluding currencies)?

Observing the negative interest bonds in Switzerland, Denmark, GErmany the value of higher presently (credit-free) outgoing cash flows seems less important than the value of lower future (credit-free) ...
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17 views

Grade system for backtesting key figures

I want to backtest my trading algorithm. The algorithm trades on a low timeframe with 400 “unique” trades. With unique I mean that it can place 1 or more of those 400 trades given different market ...
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28 views

How to Risk and Return using Carhart 4 factor model

I have to calculate firm risk and return for a group of firms. I have firm CUSIPs. I also have access to CRSP data from WRDS. Can someone explain to me how I can use CRSP and data from Ken French’s ...
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52 views

Factor Loading with multiple exposures?

How do I decompose portfolio exposures when assets may have exposure to a few of my risk factors? For instance I have some sector and state specific risk factors. If I have a bond with exposure to ...
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94 views

Barra Equity Risk Model Methodology

I am interested in learning about the Barra's Equity risk model methodology. When I google, this is the first file that comes up: http://www.alacra.com/alacra/help/barra_handbook_US.pdf However, it ...
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31 views

GARCH, EGARCH, GJR with different distributions

I have estimated different models based on different distributions. Since they are not nested models of each other, I can't use LR tests. But how can I compare the models? Can I do something with the ...
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0answers
592 views

Full Revaluation vs Factor-based Model for risk management

I am looking for literature on comparison of these two approaches. It looks like many places are using some type of Factor-based Model (Barra, Axioma, Northfield, etc.) for risk management purposes. ...
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682 views

Barra covariance matrix construction

I am trying to replicate the covariance matrix used by Barra risk models. All Barra models have half life parameters for volatilities and correlations (e.g. if the half life for volatlity is 90 days, ...
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131 views

Risk-neutral probabilities

I will use this theorem 3.2 from the book "Quantitative modeling of Derivative Securities" by Marco Avellandea: Theorem 3.2 - Assume that there is no arbitrage, i.e. there exists a risk neutral ...
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1answer
87 views

Backtesting a stock scoring model

I'm working on a simple stock scoring model consisiting of 3 factors: 1.market cap 2.liquidity of the stock 3.the value at risk we defined 3 intervals for each factor and we assigned the ...
-1
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1answer
174 views

Math basics of Equally-weighted Risk contributions

i'm writing my BA Thesis about "Equally-weighted Risk contributions". Can anyone recommend math books for further understanding of Risk contributions?