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Questions tagged [risk-neutral-measure]

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Barrier Option Valuation

Good day, A reverse knock-out barrier call option expires worthless if the asset price ever goes above a given barrier level. Calculate the value of this barrier option struck at $K = 3$ with ...
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63 views

Hedging strategy for American Option

Good day, I was asked to devise a hedging strategy for an American Option given the following claims. Note, $r=0$ and the underlying stock pays a dividend of $1$ at time $t=1.5$ \begin{...
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Why does risk-neutral price processes do not, in general, compose all arbitrage-free price processes?

I was reading reviewing my mathematical finance notes and I came across a remark I cant understand fully Remark :Contrary to discrete time models, the risk-neutral price processes do not, in general, ...
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Measure of a Brownian motion = normal distribution?

Consider some model where the process increments are normally distributed, e.g. Vasicek: $$dr(t) = \left(\theta - ar(t)\right)dt + \sigma dW(t).$$ We usually say that $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion ...
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Risk neutral modelling of a stock

Suppose a stock $S$ follows $$dS(t) = \alpha(t)S(t)dt + \sigma(t)S(t)dW(t),$$ where $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion under $P$. Also suppose there is a short rate process $r(t)$. My question would be is ...
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Why can only non-dividend paying assets serve as numeraire?

In Kerry Back, A Course in Derivative Securities, Sect. 1.4 (page 29), the author stated the FTAP in the following form (in boldface): If there are no arbitrage opportunities, then for each (non-...
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Estimation of Risk-Neutral Densities Using Positive Convolution Approximation - Python

I'm trying to estimate the risk-neutral density through positive convolution approximation (introduced by Bondarenko 2002: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=375781). I'm currently ...
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Do *all* non-dividend paying assets have the risk-free instantaneous return rate under the risk-neutral measure?

For simplicity let's consider a 1D BS world. The only source of randomness comes from the Brownian motion dynamics $dB_t$. The risk-free rate is $r$ (one may assume it as constant for the time being). ...
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1answer
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How to determine the risk-neutral measure in a Heston model?

To clarify, I'm quite familiar with the risk-neutral pricing framework, and I know one can efficiently Monte-Carlo a Heston model via the non-central $\chi^2$ distribution approach. But so far we're ...
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Change of measure price put option

I hope you can help me out. I'm really stuck understanding this. In my lecture notes we calculated the price of a put option (maturity m,with strike price $(1+i)^m$, where i is some interest rate) as ...
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Can the historical probability be the same as the risk neutral probability measure?

In particular lets consider a zero-beta asset $i$ (in the CAPM sense). Let $R_f$ be the risk free rate $R_i$ the return on the asset $i$ $R_m$ the return on the market portfolio $\beta=\frac{Cov(R_i,...
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The choice of portfolio in the proof of the Black-Scholes formula

Consider a stock whose price $S$ satisfies $$dS_t=\mu S_tdt+\sigma S_tdW_t$$ for constants $\mu,\sigma$ and where $W$ is a $\mathbb{P}$-Brownian motion. Further assume that the stock pays out ...
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1answer
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Fair value of a binary cash-or-nothing option with a barrier

I want to find the fair value of a European cash-or-nothing option that pays \$1 if $S_t>K$ and $S$ breached the level $M<0<K$, where $S$ is the risk-neutral process $dS_t=\sigma dW_t$. My ...
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Uniqueness of Risk-neutral measure: Probabilistic view

Suppose we are working on the Black and Scholes Framework. There are only two assets, the risk-less bank account and a stock. The discounted process is a GBM under the physical measure with drift term ...
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Risk neutrality coherence with risk aversion

I haven't been able to find an understandable explanation why the risk neutrality is coherent with the risk aversion implication of the expected utility hypothesis. I can see that when using the risk ...
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Why can derivatives be viewed as a portfolio of the underlying and the riskless asset?

I am struggling with the statement: "Every derivative of the underlying can be viewed as a portfolio of the underlying asset and the riskless asset." Is this based on the put-call parity? Also I ...
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Equivalent martingale measure exists if and only if $a < S_0^1(1+r)< b$

Exercise : We consider a market of one period $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb P, S^0, S^1)$, where the sample space $\Omega$ has a finite number of elements and the $\sigma-$algebra $\mathcal{F} = 2^...
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Risk neutral valuation formula

I am totally new to Finance and Arbitrage theory and I have started reading Björk (2018) Arbitrage theory in continuous time. Can anyone please explain to me what is the risk-neutral valuation formula ...
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Suggestions of papers for computing market implied probability distribution function

I need suggestions of papers that propose simple and fast methods (not heavily dependent on simulations, nut can depend on simulation) to derive the market implicit probability distribution function ...
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211 views

condition of risk neutral pricing

The theorem says if $U$ is a numeraire and let $\mathbb{Q}^U$ be the corresponding measure. Then for every tradable asset $S$, the relative price $S_t/U_t$ is a martingale under $\mathbb{Q}^U$. But I ...
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Change of numeraire between T-forward and Bank Account

I follow a course, and get to the point that one bond price discounted by another one is a martingale: $$ \frac{P(t,T_0)}{P(t,T_1)} - \text{ is a } \mathbb{Q}^{T_1} \text{ martingale } $$ I can not ...
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Dividend paying asset, why can't be taken as numéraire?

Why when considering numéraires, one cannot use a dividend paying asset to define a risk neutral measure? Here's where I got my question : (Shreve - Stochastic Calculus For Finance II)
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142 views

Libor Market Model (LMM) under risk neutral measure

I would like to establish the equations of forward libors under risk neutral measure. Here is how I do it, and what I get : Under the $P_{T_j} $ measure, forward Libor $L_j$ is martingale. Thus: $$ ...
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Checking arbitrage for the SABR model - analytical vs numerical approach

I wish to check if the fitted volatility smile/surface from the SABR model for a fixed time period is arbitrage free. Through my research, I've learnt the following need to be checked: The RND (risk ...
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Why a currency is not considerend as a numéraire for a risk neutral measure

We often say that "A risk neutral measure is associated with the money market account, not the currency. Currency pays a dividend because it can be invested in the money market." How is a currency ...
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1answer
136 views

Confusion regarding the risk neutral and physical measures

I may be confused. I am looking at the risk neutral vs. physical measures. We know that knowing the short interest rate stochastic process $r$, a bond maturing at time $T$ can be considered as a ...
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1answer
143 views

Vasicek short rate: Risk-neutral measure into real-world measure

I consider the Vasicek model under the risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$: $$ dr_t=\kappa(\theta−r_t) dt+\sigma dW^{\mathbb{Q}}_t.$$ I have already determined $$\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{−\int\...
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Equivalent martingale measure in time changed Levy models

I am investigating time changed Levy models. As far as I have seen, these models are usually directly described under the risk neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$. However, I'm interested in first modelling ...
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1answer
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calibrating two (or X) equity diffusion trees

I have two equities S1 and S2. Each one follows the following tree evolution : $$S_1 \rightarrow \left \{ \begin{matrix} S_1 (1+u_1) & \text{with probability } p_1 \\ S_1 (1-d_1)...
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What is the risk neutral density and how is it estimated? [closed]

I don't understand the words "risk-neutral density". Please explain what it is, and how it can be estimated in practice. My guess would be that we have an underlying probability space $(\Omega, P)$. ...
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Measure theory in quantitative finance

When I read up on stochastic modeling, the use of "measure" comes up a lot. So far I just read the word "measure" as "probabilities" or "distribution" and was able to get away with it when trying to ...
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Is there a relationship between Risk Neutral Pricing framework and Nash Equilibria?

Based on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, the risk neutral price of a contingent claim on an asset in a liquid, arbitrage free market can be determined by switching to an equivalent $Q-$ ...
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Stock forward price argument

Hi I am strangling to understand where is the mistake with the following strategy. Can anyone help me with the following argument? Assuming a stock price follows geometric Brownian motion then the ...
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Going from Stochastic Discount Factor / Risk Neutral Density -> Hedge Ratio

Assuming a probability distribution function is known in its entirety, what methods are available to construct a hedge ratio? For guidance, I went to the canonical Empirical Pricing Kernels and found ...
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1answer
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Calculating the stochastic integral of $\exp(-rt)S_t$

I am currently reading lecture notes which aim to show that if $$ S_t = S_0 \exp (\mu t + \sigma W_t) $$ then, under the probability measure $\tilde{\mathbb{P}}$ with density $$ \gamma_T = \exp (c W_T ...
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Question about the Cameron-Martin-Girsanov (CMG) theorem

Within my lecture notes, the following definition of the CMG theorem is given: Under the probability measure $\mathbb{\tilde{P}}$ with density $\gamma_T = \exp(cW_T - \frac{c^2}{2}T)$, the process $...
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Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process: physical and risk-neutral measure

From Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process I get paths in risk-neutal measure. How can I get paths in physical measure?
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1answer
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Girsanov's Theorem for Multiple Risky Assets

Girsanov's theorem provides the measure transformation from probability measure P to Q such that- $dW_t^Q=dW_t^P+\lambda dt\implies \xi_tW_t^Q$ is a martingale under the P measure where $\xi_t=e^{-\...
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Machine Learning usage in Q part of Quant Finance

Machine Learning algorithms is broadly used in trading strategies and in general when it comes to working with financial time series. The webpage Quantopian is a platform to see some of the ...
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Tail estimation of the risk neutral density with GEV

I am a little bit unfamiliar with GEV distribution fitting and wanted to see how to implement it in the particular case of risk neutral density estimation. I use a common approach to estimate my risk ...
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Hull Martingales and measures problem 27.16 7e?

Here's a question from Hull's Options Futures and Other derivatives which I'd appreciate if someone helped me to clarify. The question is from the chapter "Martingales and Measures" Suppose that the ...
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Martingale Measure in Fundamental Asset Prcing Formula

I want to know when we use FAPF to price the Value of an Asset according to the formula, $$V_{asset} = \mathbb{E}^{P} [\sum_{\tau=0}^T (PV[C_\tau])]$$, where: $P$ is some equivalent probability ...
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1answer
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Equivalent Martingale Measure result Hull?

I've been reading Hull's chapter about Martingales and measures where he states that if you have the dynamics of two securities as follows: \begin{align} \frac{df}{f} = (r + \lambda \sigma_f) dt + \...
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How to Calculate the Value of a Growing Perpetuity Using a State Price Matrix?

Summary I wish to value perpetual cash flows through state contingent claims on real consumption, where the state of the economy is assumed to follow a finite markov chain (Similar to Banz and Miller ...
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1answer
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Hull-White Extension of Vasicek Model

I am reading the book Interest Rate Models by Brigo and Mercurio and try to understand the Hull White Model Extended Vasicek Model. They start off by defining the instantaneous short-rate process ...
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1answer
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Term structure used in Geometric Brownian Motions under Risk Neutral Measure?

When using a GBM under a risk-neutral measure to simulate stock prices, we have to use the risk-free interest rate, but how exactly do you determine what interest rate to use? I have used the Vasicek ...
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1answer
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Change of Numeraire to price European swaptions

In the pricing of a European swaption, it is common to use the annuity factor $A(t)$ as the Numeraire. I was trying to write down the pricing formula via the bank account as numeraire to see if they ...
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What is the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor?

My question is regarding the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor? I am confused as to how are they related?
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273 views

Risk neutral measure doubt

For a derivative in a complete market, we can say that: $h_0 = E(h_t)$ assuming 0 risk free rate. Is the above relation also valid for a stock/ non derivative i.e. $s_0 = E(s_t)$ under the same risk ...