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Questions tagged [risk-neutral-measure]

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Dividend paying asset, why can't be taken as numéraire?

Why when considering numéraires, one cannot use a dividend paying asset to define a risk neutral measure? Here's where I got my question : (Shreve - Stochastic Calculus For Finance II)
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Libor Market Model (LMM) under risk neutral measure

I would like to establish the equations of forward libors under risk neutral measure. Here is how I do it, and what I get : Under the $P_{T_j} $ measure, forward Libor $L_j$ is martingale. Thus: $$ ...
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Checking arbitrage for the SABR model - analytical vs numerical approach

I wish to check if the fitted volatility smile/surface from the SABR model for a fixed time period is arbitrage free. Through my research, I've learnt the following need to be checked: The RND (risk ...
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Why a currency is not considerend as a numéraire for a risk neutral measure

We often say that "A risk neutral measure is associated with the money market account, not the currency. Currency pays a dividend because it can be invested in the money market." How is a currency ...
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1answer
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Confusion regarding the risk neutral and physical measures

I may be confused. I am looking at the risk neutral vs. physical measures. We know that knowing the short interest rate stochastic process $r$, a bond maturing at time $T$ can be considered as a ...
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27 views

Joint risk neutral distribution

If I have stock index option and individual stock option data, where individual stocks are components of this index, can I estimate joint risk neutral distribution of underlying stocks
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Unique risk neutral measure in Black Scholes vs Merton Model

I was going through a question on the unique risk neutral measure in the Black Scholes model : Unique risk neutral measure for Brownian Motion One of the answers said it is essentially because there ...
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1answer
74 views

Vasicek short rate: Risk-neutral measure into real-world measure

I consider the Vasicek model under the risk-neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$: $$ dr_t=\kappa(\theta−r_t) dt+\sigma dW^{\mathbb{Q}}_t.$$ I have already determined $$\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[e^{−\int\...
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Equivalent martingale measure in time changed Levy models

I am investigating time changed Levy models. As far as I have seen, these models are usually directly described under the risk neutral measure $\mathbb{Q}$. However, I'm interested in first modelling ...
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1answer
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calibrating two (or X) equity diffusion trees

I have two equities S1 and S2. Each one follows the following tree evolution : $$S_1 \rightarrow \left \{ \begin{matrix} S_1 (1+u_1) & \text{with probability } p_1 \\ S_1 (1-d_1)...
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What is the risk neutral density and how is it estimated? [closed]

I don't understand the words "risk-neutral density". Please explain what it is, and how it can be estimated in practice. My guess would be that we have an underlying probability space $(\Omega, P)$. ...
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1answer
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Measure theory in quantitative finance

When I read up on stochastic modeling, the use of "measure" comes up a lot. So far I just read the word "measure" as "probabilities" or "distribution" and was able to get away with it when trying to ...
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Is there a relationship between Risk Neutral Pricing framework and Nash Equilibria?

Based on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, the risk neutral price of a contingent claim on an asset in a liquid, arbitrage free market can be determined by switching to an equivalent $Q-$ ...
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1answer
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Stock forward price argument

Hi I am strangling to understand where is the mistake with the following strategy. Can anyone help me with the following argument? Assuming a stock price follows geometric Brownian motion then the ...
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Going from Stochastic Discount Factor / Risk Neutral Density -> Hedge Ratio

Assuming a probability distribution function is known in its entirety, what methods are available to construct a hedge ratio? For guidance, I went to the canonical Empirical Pricing Kernels and found ...
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1answer
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Calculating the stochastic integral of $\exp(-rt)S_t$

I am currently reading lecture notes which aim to show that if $$ S_t = S_0 \exp (\mu t + \sigma W_t) $$ then, under the probability measure $\tilde{\mathbb{P}}$ with density $$ \gamma_T = \exp (c W_T ...
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1answer
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Question about the Cameron-Martin-Girsanov (CMG) theorem

Within my lecture notes, the following definition of the CMG theorem is given: Under the probability measure $\mathbb{\tilde{P}}$ with density $\gamma_T = \exp(cW_T - \frac{c^2}{2}T)$, the process $...
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Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process: physical and risk-neutral measure

From Monte-Carlo simulation Hull-White process I get paths in risk-neutal measure. How can I get paths in physical measure?
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1answer
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Girsanov's Theorem for Multiple Risky Assets

Girsanov's theorem provides the measure transformation from probability measure P to Q such that- $dW_t^Q=dW_t^P+\lambda dt\implies \xi_tW_t^Q$ is a martingale under the P measure where $\xi_t=e^{-\...
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Machine Learning usage in Q part of Quant Finance

Machine Learning algorithms is broadly used in trading strategies and in general when it comes to working with financial time series. The webpage Quantopian is a platform to see some of the ...
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Tail estimation of the risk neutral density with GEV

I am a little bit unfamiliar with GEV distribution fitting and wanted to see how to implement it in the particular case of risk neutral density estimation. I use a common approach to estimate my risk ...
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Hull Martingales and measures problem 27.16 7e?

Here's a question from Hull's Options Futures and Other derivatives which I'd appreciate if someone helped me to clarify. The question is from the chapter "Martingales and Measures" Suppose that the ...
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Martingale Measure in Fundamental Asset Prcing Formula

I want to know when we use FAPF to price the Value of an Asset according to the formula, $$V_{asset} = \mathbb{E}^{P} [\sum_{\tau=0}^T (PV[C_\tau])]$$, where: $P$ is some equivalent probability ...
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1answer
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Equivalent Martingale Measure result Hull?

I've been reading Hull's chapter about Martingales and measures where he states that if you have the dynamics of two securities as follows: \begin{align} \frac{df}{f} = (r + \lambda \sigma_f) dt + \...
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How to Calculate the Value of a Growing Perpetuity Using a State Price Matrix?

Summary I wish to value perpetual cash flows through state contingent claims on real consumption, where the state of the economy is assumed to follow a finite markov chain (Similar to Banz and Miller ...
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1answer
261 views

Hull-White Extension of Vasicek Model

I am reading the book Interest Rate Models by Brigo and Mercurio and try to understand the Hull White Model Extended Vasicek Model. They start off by defining the instantaneous short-rate process ...
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1answer
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Term structure used in Geometric Brownian Motions under Risk Neutral Measure?

When using a GBM under a risk-neutral measure to simulate stock prices, we have to use the risk-free interest rate, but how exactly do you determine what interest rate to use? I have used the Vasicek ...
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1answer
190 views

Change of Numeraire to price European swaptions

In the pricing of a European swaption, it is common to use the annuity factor $A(t)$ as the Numeraire. I was trying to write down the pricing formula via the bank account as numeraire to see if they ...
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What is the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor?

My question is regarding the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor? I am confused as to how are they related?
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2answers
207 views

Risk neutral measure doubt

For a derivative in a complete market, we can say that: $h_0 = E(h_t)$ assuming 0 risk free rate. Is the above relation also valid for a stock/ non derivative i.e. $s_0 = E(s_t)$ under the same risk ...
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1answer
329 views

Equivalent Martingale Measure(EMM) of Inverse of Stock Price

I met this question says how to price a vanilla call option $C(St,t,T,K) = \frac{1}{S_T}$which pays the inverse of a stock $V_{t} = \frac{1}{S_{t}}$ at maturity if the stock price follows a geometric ...
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Complete Financial Market: Integrability condition for Contingent Claims

Consider an arbitrage-free and complete financial market with underlying filtered probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\{\mathcal{F}_{t}\}_{t\,\in\,[0,T]},\mathbb{Q})$, where $T\in(0,\infty)$ is ...
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Bivariate risk neutral distribution through copula

I want to build a bivariate risk-neutral distribution from two liquid assets (A and B) through the use of a copula. As A and B are liquid, I have the marginal distributions from the market. All I have ...
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Constant volatility and risk-free rate assumptions of Black Scholes

I'm studying the risk-neutral derivation of Black-Scholes formula and feel confused about the requirement for the volatility of the underlying asset and the risk-free rate to be constant. It seems ...
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Overview of pricing using e.g. forward measure numeraire change

I am taking my first steps into numeraire change and change of probability measure. My overall struggle is relating numeraire change and all its aspects to e.g. the easy intuition behind risk-neutral ...
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The two fundamental theorems of Finance, as they relate to the martingale measure

I RECENTLY read this in an article by Battig and Jarrow, "the first fundamental theorem relates the notion of no arbitrage to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure, while the second ...
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Girsanov Theorem, Radon-Nikodym Derivative backward

Given a filtered probablity space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},{\mathcal{F}}_t,\mathbb{P})$ and a standard Brownian motion $W_t$. Normally, in Girsanov Theorem, we use the exponential martingale $Z_t=\exp(-\...
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1answer
68 views

Convexity adjustment when payment if after interest natural term?

I've been working with a convexity adjustment for an interest rate payoff and the next question came to me: The usual problem that gives rise to the convexity adjustment I'm referring to is as ...
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1answer
155 views

How to infer real world measure from risk neutral measure

Assume we have inferred risk neutral density of stock price at time T from option prices. Assume we have obtained a parameterized density p(S). How can we infer real world measure? I know about ...
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Binomial model's Radon-Nikodym derivative

Related: Dumb question: is risk-neutral pricing taking conditional expectation? In the one-step binomial model... For $\frac{d \mathbb Q}{d \mathbb P}$, I think it's $\frac{d \mathbb Q}{d \mathbb P}...
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How are the two concepts No arbitrage & Risk neutral probability related?

The title, and might I add, that this question is in relation to the Black-Scholes model and why the concepts are important for option pricing in general.
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Dumb question: is risk-neutral pricing taking conditional expectation?

Dumb question: is risk-neutral pricing taking conditional expectation? $\tag{1}$ In trying to recall intuition for risk-neutral pricing, I think I read that we should price derivatives risk-neutrally ...
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Estimation Risk-Neutral Variance of Returns

I am trying to find a method which allows me to estimate $Var_{\mathbb{Q}}\left(\frac{S_{t_{i+1}}}{S_{t_i}}\right)$ where $S$ denotes the price process of an underlying stock (which has to be assumed ...
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1answer
133 views

Equality under T-forward measure for convexity adjustment

I've been working with the convexity adjustment for interest rates that arises when changing from one measure $Q_{T_p}$ with a numéraire $N_p=P(t,T_p)$ to a measure $Q_{T_e}$ with a numéraire $N_e=P(t,...
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Change measure and derivative pricing in Heston model

Consider the Heston-Model $$\begin{cases} dS_t=\mu S_t dt+ \sqrt{v_t} S_tdB_t^1 \\ dv_t=k(\theta - v_t)dt+\eta \sqrt{v_t}dB_t^2 \\ \end{cases} $$ where $B_1,B_2$ are correlated Brownian motions with ...
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Martingale measure result application for interest rates under T-forward measure?

I've got a question about the way the equivalent martingale measure result is used for pricing derivatives. Hull states the result as the next equality: \begin{align*} f_o = g_0 E^{g}\big(\frac{f_T}{...
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Change of measure between T-forward and T*-forward contract?

I am trying to prove the need of a convexity adjustment to a forward rate by calculating the next expectation: \begin{align*} P(t_0, T_s)E^{T_s}\big(L(T_s, T_s, T_e) \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_0}\big). \end{...
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1answer
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Risk Neutral measure, reaffecting probabilities to paths

I don't understand this passage from Shreve, Stochastic Calculus for Finance II. The points I want to clarify : 1 ) How does the volatility tells us which paths are possible ? 2 ) How does the ...
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Real price distribution and premiums

When pricing options in the risk neutral framework we know that the only thing that matters is the distribution of asset's prices under risk-neutral probabilities. Real distribution of prices doesn't. ...