Questions tagged [risk-neutral-measure]

A risk-neutral measure is a probability measure that yields an expected present value (discounted at the risk-free rate) which is equal to the current market price. The risk-neutral measure is also called an equivalent martingale measure.

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ATM Implied Volatility and Expected Variance

This answer claims that $$\sigma^2_{ATM}\approx E^Q\left(\frac{1}{T}\int_0^T\sigma^2_t dt\right)$$ ie implied ATM vol = risk-neutral expectation of integrated variance. Is there some proof available? ...
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Estimating market price of interest rate risk under CIR model

My goal is to find the market price of risk associated with the interest rate under the CIR model whose stochastic differential equation under the physical measure is given: \begin{eqnarray}\label{...
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Some thoughts over risk-neutral pricing vs real world expectations

I am trying to connect risk-neutral and physical measure expectations, to understand the difference between a no-arbitrage price and an expected terminal value. Imagine I have a European derivative ...
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Implication of unique risk neutral measure

I'm reading Shreve Stochastic Calculus II, theorem 5.4.9 (Second fundamental theorem of asset pricing), This is the part that confuses me : suppose there is only one risk-neutral measure. This ...
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BKM risk neutral moments in python

I am trying to compute the BKM implied moments (Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan 2003) in python by following this paper: Neumann, Skiadopoulos: Predictable Dynamics in Higher Order Risk-Neutral Moments: ...
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Dividend Dynamics under Q Measure / Using Girsanov Theorem with Covariance

I want to find the value of a dividend stream. I can do it under the P-measure, but now I would also like to do it under the Q-measure but cant figure out how to derive the dynamics of the dividend ...
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Is the market price of an asset always lower than the expected discounted value under the REAL WORLD measure?

The risk neutral measure is often said to reflect the risk aversion of investors. So intuitively, I would think that an asset's expected discounted value should be lower under the risk neutral measure ...
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Equivalent martingale measure and derivative pricing [duplicate]

So I just recently saw in class that to price a derivative you use what is called an equivalent martingale measure which allows you to compute the price of the contract which then will be the expected ...
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GARCH option pricing

I have been trying to implement GARCH(1,1) model for pricing call options. Suppose I have calibrated Garch(1,1) model for modelling the conditional volatility using the historical data of an equity ...
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Risk premium of insurance risk

I recently came across an equation in a paper. In short, suppose that $I(t)$ denotes a longevity index at time $t$. An informative indicator that is useful in the absence of any information about the ...
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Option implied risk neutral distribution vs BKM risk neutral moments

I am doing some research on the option implied risk neutral distribution and methods calculate it, and so far have come across two ways to do so. The first way is through the Breeden-Litzenberger ...
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Market price of risk ($\lambda$) - Brigo and Mercurio

In page 52 of Interest Rate Models by Brigo and Mercurio the following is stated: Precisely, let us assume that the instantaneous spot rate evolves under the real-world measure $Q_0$ according to $dr(...
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Premium density under stochastic interest rate

First, suppose that the interest rate is assumed to be zero. Then, according to the definition provided by Delbaen and Haezendonck (1989), the premium is given by: \begin{equation} p_t = p(\mathbb{Q})\...
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What is the P-probability of an unhedged call-arbitrage to lose money at expiration

Assume that the Risk Neutral Price (under the $\mathbb{Q}$-measure) of an European Call Option with expiration date $T$ has a price of $F(S_0,0)$ at time $t=0$ in the single asset Black-Scholes model ...
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Are risk neutral probabilities (for the arbitrage theorem) the same no matter what betting strategy is chosen?

I am learning the basics of risk neutral probability and arbitrage theorem. The arbitrage thm states that given a series of bets $r_{1}, ..., r_{n}$ either there is arbitrage, or there exists a ...
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Why would valuation for a swap be the same on the backward and forward rate but not a caplet

Consider for time discretization $0 = T_{0} < T_{1} <... < S < T < T_{n}$, and the corresponding forward rates and backward rate: $\text{Forward rate: }L(S,T;t)$ $\text{Backward Rate: }...
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Risk Neutral Change of Measure: Intuition for Adding in Market Price of Risk

In effecting a risk neutral change of measure for Brownian motion of stock prices, can anyone share the intuition behind subtracting the market price of risk from the risk neutral in order to obtain ...
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Replicating a bond

In Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance Volume II, section 6.5, page 273, Shreve talks about pricing a zero-coupon bond. A zero-coupon bond is a contract promising to pay a certain "face&...
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How to find the risk neutral valuation of $P(T_{1})$ und the measure $\mathbb Q^{P(T_{2})}$

How do I find the risk neutral valuation of $P(T_{1})$ und the measure $\mathbb Q^{P(T_{2})}$, where $P(T_{1})$ and $P(T_{2})$ refer to the $T_{1}$ and $T_{2}$ zero coupon bond with $0 < T_{1} < ...
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Largest class of real world probability models admitting explicit risk-neutral change of measure

Assume we have two assets, a random asset $A_t$ and deterministic risk-free bond $B_t = e^{rt}$. Let $P$ be a model of the real-world probabilities of $S$ and $Q$ the unique associated risk-neutral ...
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Pricing a contract

I'm currently trying to price some different kinds of contracts. I'm stuck on this following exercise, which I can't seems to find a good solution for. The following is assumed: We are in a standard ...
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Discrete geometric asian option call price formula

I am looking to derive the call price of an asian option of the form $$\max\{A_T - K, 0\}$$ with $$A_T = \left(\prod_{i=1}^nS_{t_i}\right)^\frac{1}{n}$$ which has price under $\mathbb{Q}$ $$e^{-rT}[...
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Pricing of LIBOR based CF settled after the LIBOR fixing by switching from risk-neutral to forward-neutral measures

When deriving the LIBOR-based swap rate formula in any interest rate model, expressions of the following types appear naturally: Literature tells us that, switching to the – forward neutral measure, ...
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Pricing formula under a new risk-neutral pricing measure:

From the fundamental asset pricing theorem, we know that in the absence of arbitrage opportunities, the present value of an asset paying $\Psi(X)$ at maturity time $T$ is given by: \begin{equation} ...
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Show that a forward starting option has 0 delta, and no sensitivity to volatility until the strike is determined

I need to show that the payoff: $([(S_{T2}-S_{T1})/S_{T1}]-k)^+$ a. Has 0 delta b. Has no sensitivity to quadratic variation of the underlying till $T_1$ Additionally, I would like to know for what ...
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In which scenario would we end up with more than one $\mathbb{Q}$ after calibrating an incomplete model?

Reading the literature I see that quite an effort is made to price derivatives in an incomplete setting. I see stuff like efficient hedging, indifference pricing, choosing $\mathbb{Q}$ by considering ...
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Is completeness of a financial model relevant for derivatives pricing?

If a market model is complete then every derivative has a unique arbitrage free price. However we are not starting with a model but with a arbitrage free Model class $\mathcal{M}$ (E.g. the ...
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Volatility and drift of the instantaneous forward rate under risk neutral measure using the zero coupon bond

I have question about this problem. I believe I have derived $f(t,T)$ correctly using the zero-coupon bond. But I am unsure about how to go forward with the question and how to use the second part. ...
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Path-dependent options valuation

Assume that we have an arbitrage-free and complete market. The well known formula for the arbitrage-free price of an attainable derivative $X$ at time $0 \leq t \leq T$ is given by: \begin{align*} V(t)...
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How to get Risk-Neutral Drift for Trading Volume from Time Series

I am trying to price an option with Monte-Carlo simulation, where the payoff depends on some constants and a time-series (trading volume) which I model to follow a GBM. Now if I understood it ...
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Estimating the Market Price of Risk (Hull's Section 36.3)

I'm currently trying to understand risk-neutral valuation and transforming real-world stochastic processes to their risk-neutral version. If I understood it correctly, the main point of risk-neutral ...
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Valuation of security when reaching hitting time under GBM

I'm trying to find a formula to value the following security: Where equation (2) is given by I already have that : I looking for formula to value this security in the real-world. Can someone please ...
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Is the initial value of the portfolio replicating a forward zero?

This is from the book Financial Calculus: An Introduction to Derivative Pricing by Martin Baxter. By choosing appropriate weights in a portfolio of a stock and cash bond you can replicate the payoff ...
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Why is the market price of risk in the one factor Schwartz model different from the usual one?

Assume that the commodity spot price follows the stochastic process (see Schwartz article page 926) $$ dS = \kappa(\mu-\log S)Sdt+\sigma SdW, $$ where $\kappa >0$ measures the degree of mean ...
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FX Asian Option Moment-matching in Harmonic case

I need to price a "foreign-paying" fixed-strike Asian (i.e., average) option. Thus, the payoff is: $$\left(\frac{A_T - K}{A_T}\right)^{+} = \left(1 - \frac{K}{A_T}\right)^{+} = K \left(\frac{...
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Fitting parameters given an inverse function. (Orosi, 2015)

In trying to replicate Orosi's (2015) 5-parameter implied volatility model, but I can't wrap my head around the parameter fitting procedure Orosi proposes. My main goal is to calibrate the model to my ...
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Equivalence of Call Option on $S_T$ and Put Option on $\frac{1}{S_T}$ in FX Markets

Part 1: I am trying to price an option in the FX world. It naturally pays in the domestic currency, but in this case the payout currency must be the foreign currency. For example, consider the payoff: ...
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How to use Girsanov theorem for complicated RN derivatives?

Let $W_t$ be a Brownian motion under probability measure $\mathbb{P}$. Let $X_t$ be defined as follows. $$\mathrm{d}X_t = a \mathrm{d}t + 2\sqrt{ X_t} \mathrm{d}W_t.$$ Also define: $$L_t = \exp\left(-\...
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Q determined by the market in Binomial Model

I read in a book about change of measure, so that the discounted stock price in a binomial model is equal to the current price. Namely: $$E_{Q}[S_{1}/ \beta |S_{0}]= S_{0} $$ It then says: " Q is ...
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Poisson process under equivalent martingale measure

I have a stochastic process $N(t)$ which is equal to $n$ with probability $P\{N(t) = n\}=\frac{\left(\lambda t \right)^{n}}{n!}e^{-\lambda t }$ where $t$ represents the time period. In other words, ...
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How to compute the Present Value of this path-dependent option?

I have an option whose payoff depends on its value at two times $T_1$ and $T_2$ as follows. $$V(t) = \mathbb{E}^{Q}[\mathbb{1}_{S(T_1)>B} (S(T_2)-K)^+)],$$ where the stock price follows the GBM ...
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Lognormal SABR symmetries

Consider the lognormal SABR model ($\beta=1$) for an FX forward process $F$: \begin{align} dF&=aF dW\\ da&=\nu a\left(\rho dW+\sqrt{1-\rho^2}dW^\perp\right) \end{align} where $(W,W^\perp)$ is ...
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Additional requirement for the asset price and payoff to ensure the market is arbitrage-free

Suppose we have two risky assets and one risk-free asset in the market. The market is incomplete in that there are three assets and four states. The price vector at $t_0$ is: $\boldsymbol{p_0}=[p^s_{1}...
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replicating self-financing portfolio for risk neutral measure

Let the price process $S_{t}, 0 \leq t \leq T$, be a diffusion, and savings account be $\beta_{t}$ such that the Equivalent Martingale Measure $Q$ exists. Let $C_{T}=g\left(X_{T}\right)$ be the claim ...
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How to estimate lambda from NAGARCH submodel in R

I am trying to estimate the model="fGARCH", submodel="NAGARCH" from the rugarch package in R. However, when I am estimating the parameters, only omega, alpha, beta and gamma are ...
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Risk Neutral Valuation, Drifts and Calibration

Lets consider a pricing model like Vasicek. Apparently, if you calibrate a derivatives pricing model to market prices this gives you risk neutral parameters. Its not clear to me as to WHY this will ...
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option pricing formula for $S_{t}=S_{0}+\mu t+\sigma B_{t}$ where r = 0

I have been on this for hours and it's not getting me anywhere. Any help is so highly and deeply appreciated. A call option with strike $K$ and expiration $T$ pays $C_{T}=\left(S_{T}-K\right)^{+}$ at ...
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2 answers
391 views

Risk-neutral Probability, Risk-Adjusted Returns & Risk Aversion

When we employ the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the existence of an equivalent probability measure, say $Q$ with respect to the historical probability $P$, we often say the expectation ...
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Instantaneous Forward LIBOR rate formula under the real-world measure: A fundamental question

We know how the formula of an instantaneous forward LIBOR rate looks like: \begin{eqnarray} L(t, t, T) = \frac{1}{\Delta}\left(\frac{1}{P(t, T)} -1\right) \end{eqnarray} where $P(t, T)$ stands for the ...
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Calculating futures price

Consider a world as follows: $$\frac{dB}{B} = r_tdt$$ $$\frac{dS}{S} = r_tdt - 0.05dW_1 + 0.5dW_2$$ $$dr_t = 0.2 dW_1$$ where $r_0=0$. The Wiener processes $W_1$ and $W_2$ are independent. The price ...
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