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Questions tagged [risk]

The possibility that a negative event (such as a loss) will happen.

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1 answer
73 views

PCA risk modelling

Been doing loads of reading about PCA, FA and SVD but still fail to understand the fundamentals of how PCA links with factor analysis in the context of risk modelling. Here is where I'm stuck: Given a ...
0 votes
1 answer
64 views

Decompose portfolio in factor risk

I am reading the risk chapter of Grinold Active Portfolio Managment. I understand how to calculated specific and factor risk of my portfolio, what I don't understand is how to calculate how much risk ...
0 votes
0 answers
35 views

Scenario probability in portfolio optimization

I have few questions regarding linear programming formulation of expectile-based portfolio optimization. From this article on page 51 the LP algorithm is presented. And the problems are that I don't ...
2 votes
1 answer
83 views

Improving Portfolio Optimization on a Mean-Variance Basis

Is there a point to conduct research to improve mean-variance optimization (MVO)? Because I understand that most of the poor performance in MVO is a result of the estimation error in expected returns. ...
-2 votes
0 answers
42 views

Futures Spread Contract - How to Structure Risk to Reward

Futures Spread - Contract There is a Futures Spread, Where the Margin reflects a Leverage of 3 to 1 , The Margin for the contract is just $ 210. I ‘am Buying “ 1 Futures Contract September, Selling 1 ...
0 votes
1 answer
61 views

Subpar Results of Historical Portfolio Optimization with Few Assets

Probably a simple question to the P-Quants here, but if you performed portfolio optimization using a historically calibrated covariance matrix (a rolling month of daily returns) with very few assets, ...
4 votes
2 answers
370 views

Sharpe ratio with CVaR for denominator and different investor utility functions

I would like to model different type of investors, hence I need to find some kind of utility functions to optimize. Apart from very abstract exponential utility function, I couldn't find any proper ...
6 votes
8 answers
2k views

Conceptual problem with risk neutrality-What is a 'risk-neutral world', exactly?

I have persistent, deep problems with the concept of 'risk-neutrality'. To make it more precise, let's look at the following explanation taken from a book: "In a world where investors are risk ...
0 votes
0 answers
30 views

Risk Aversion Coefficient Literature Rationale and Sources

I'm running a Black-Litterman model and for the Risk Aversion Coefficient I have two potential formulas. The first is the standard formula which I believe is used in the original Black-Litterman ...
1 vote
1 answer
139 views

Calculation of Total Credit Risk Capital % but seeing lower capital percentage for higher risk band. Is there any correction required?

I am trying to calculate the Total Credit Risk capital % for my learning purpose as given below. Assuming adding 1 single loan with different pds. i have noticed one point in the table and have two ...
1 vote
2 answers
3k views

What is CVA (credit valuation adjustment)?

According to Wikipedia, CVA is defined as the difference between the risk-free portfolio value and the true portfolio value that takes into account the possibility of a counterparty’s default. What ...
2 votes
1 answer
240 views

When optimizing a portfolio for risk parity, can any portfolio weights turn negative?

As the title reads, when performing risk parity optimization (equal risk contribution amongst all assets to the portfolio volatility), is it possible for weights to turn negative? I understand that in ...
5 votes
1 answer
362 views

How do binary options broker hedge themselves against losses?

My question refers to the fact that, for most part, binary options are basically gambling, but not to the full extent. Due to the advanced models, capital anomalies like Momentum and possibly technial ...
0 votes
0 answers
46 views

PCA and OLS regression to transform to interest rate risk? [duplicate]

I’ve been working on different interest rate risk transformation methods for swaps and was interested in implementing PCA & OLS regression. I’m looking to bucket my exposure in all tenors to ...
6 votes
1 answer
325 views

Non-contractual accounts behavioural study

I need to carry a non-contractual accounts behavoiural study for a bank. The objective is to estimate core/non core ratios and then bucket and ftp them. Any recipe where to start? I have 3yrs of ...
0 votes
1 answer
206 views

efficient frontiers are equal

I created 3 different efficient frontiers with 3 different risk factors(sharpe ratio, ulcer performance index and serenity ratio) and I wanted to find both MSR and GMV(and their equivalent for the ...
0 votes
0 answers
51 views

JP Morgan CreditMetrics

I am trying to apply CreditMetrics on a 2 bond portfolio. As far as I know, this model returns the expected recovery rate and the volatility between those 2 bonds, so my question is how I calculate ...
2 votes
1 answer
124 views

Cubic Spline Interpolation partial derivative to the point

Still didn't figure out this, so looking for some help, kindly apppreciated. By this blog https://blog.timodenk.com/cubic-spline-interpolation/index.html, the piecewise cubic spline interpolation is ...
1 vote
1 answer
208 views

Alternative form of mean-variance optimization that uses standard deviation

I'm curious about an exercise found in Optimization Methods in Finance. Exercise 8.2 (pg 143) explores a variant of the more commonly used form of MVO. When I refer to the more common variant I'm ...
-2 votes
1 answer
184 views

No arbitrage opportunities and interest rate

Consider a financial market with one single period, with interest rate r and one stock S. Suppose that $S_0 =1$ and, for n=1, $S_1$ can take two different values: 2, 1/2. For which values of r the ...
4 votes
0 answers
102 views

How is option pricing related to the correlation between implied volatlity and the underlying?

The correlation between the index returns (e.g SPX) and its changes in option-impled volatility (e.g. VIX), is strong, stable and negative (the implied volatility feedback effect). To me at least, it ...
1 vote
1 answer
104 views

Calculating marginal risk contribution of FX for foreign asset portfolio

I am a European investor investing in US equities. My US equities portfolio returns in EUR can be broken down into (1) equities returns in USD terms, and (2) USDEUR spot currency returns. Using the ...
1 vote
1 answer
181 views

How to construct a forward exposure portfolio with bonds?

I was asked in an interview to get an exposure to 5Y5Y forward rate using bonds alone. Essentially it is short 5Y bond and long 10Y bond, and I needed to compute the relative weights. Regarding risk: ...
0 votes
0 answers
12 views

constrains of return distribution and risk return trade off

Suppose we have a portfolio $V$, we are only allowed to invest in one stock $S$, its price movement follows the geometric brownian motion, i.e. $dS=S(\mu dt+\sigma dW)$. We are allowed to choose ...
0 votes
1 answer
90 views

Why should investors be compensated for accepting systematic risk? [closed]

Investors should be compensated for accepting systematic risk, as it cannot be diversified. Why do the investors need to be compensated for accepting systematic risk? Because no one can avoid it and ...
6 votes
2 answers
226 views

On measurements of ambiguity and their shortcomings

Ambiguity in quant finance is defined as the uncertainty in the probabilities of the return distribution, whereas risk is defined as the uncertainty in the returns of the asset. There are various ...
0 votes
0 answers
71 views

Potential Future Exposure for vanilla swap

I need to calculate the PFE for vanilla swap. I wonder if it makes sense to simulate the MC scenarios with a 1-factor Hull white model. In my opinion, this model only allows parallel curve ...
2 votes
0 answers
578 views

What are some advanced methods for bond risk transformations?

Consider a portfolio of bonds within a given yield curve (e.g. Gilt curve), consisting of positions in every bond in the curve. I'm looking for ways to transform the risk of the portfolio into ...
0 votes
0 answers
60 views

Taking a set of normally distributed random variables as the sample space to fitting an exponential distribution

Disclaimer, this is my first question/interaction in this forum. Let's assume I have random variables that are normally distributed. Then, say I take the observations that are greater than the mean, i....
2 votes
3 answers
333 views

PD and LGD for ECL calculations needs to be time dependent?

I'm studying the implementation of an expected credit loss (ECL) model. I have encountered a complication. Do I need to calculate a probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) with a time ...
1 vote
0 answers
46 views

What is the meaning of the asset risk contribution in a long-short portfolio?

If I have a portfolio of weights $\mathbf{x}$ and the covariance matrix of asset returns $\Sigma$ then the volatility contribution per asset is given as standard $\mathbf{x}' \Sigma$. For a standard ...
0 votes
0 answers
89 views

If investors are risk-neutral, should the (equity) risk premium be zero?

I looked up ChatGPT and they stated that the (equity) risk premium should be zero for a risk-neutral world. The definition of a risk-neutral investor is that one is indifferent between additional or ...
1 vote
1 answer
140 views

If there was a way to back out implied volatility (IV) from a stock, would it be the same as the IV backed out from an option on that same stock?

I know that it is not possible to back out an IV for a stock, because the concept of IV is based on a model with underlying assumptions applied to pricing an option. I was thinking of why IV is ...
2 votes
1 answer
181 views

From parameter risk (sensitivities) to market risk (sensitivities)

In models where the underlying is not modeled directly - such as in the HJM framework or short rate models - how does one then compute the Greeks, i.e. sensitivites wrt. market variables. As an ...
1 vote
0 answers
78 views

Portfolio risk of correlated assets using Mahalanobis distance

I am trying to understand if there is an agreed methodology to measure the total risk in a portfolio of correlated assets. I am taking a simple model of stock prices following geometric Brownian ...
1 vote
1 answer
112 views

Value At Risk Modelling for electricity market with negative prices

I'm a bit at loss after trying to find papers regarding tail risk for electricity markets. There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of literature (or perhaps I haven't managed to find it) regarding ...
0 votes
2 answers
39 views

Basis risk between future and a non-dividend paying stock

I am a bit confused about the definition of basis risk, and how it applies to a zero dividend stock. A study manual that teaches me about that mentioned basis risk happens when there are mismatches in ...
2 votes
1 answer
438 views

Can PCA be used to transform a ladder of interest rate risk?

The context For traders/market makers on interest rate swaps desks, it is essential to have a model that transforms risk from its most complex representation (i.e. a ladder of every tenor) into a less ...
1 vote
1 answer
112 views

Tricky question about returns [duplicate]

I have a list of monthly returns. -10% -20% -70% -30% -15% -60% The total end return is -94.859%. Because you calculate = 100 x (1+ -10%) x (1+ -20%) x ... Now I ...
0 votes
0 answers
126 views

CoVaR/dCoVaR modelling using bivariate DCC-GJR-GARCH

For the several weeks, I have been looking for a way to calculate and display the results of my DCC-GJR-GARCH model to picture a dynamic relationship between daily return of, let's say for example, ...
4 votes
2 answers
199 views

How do energy companies measure the magnitude of the risks of buying energy at a variable price and selling it at a fixed price?

Power and gas retailers are exposed to a variety of risks when selling to domestic customers. Many of these risks arise from the fact that customers are offered a fixed price, while the retailer must ...
0 votes
0 answers
70 views

Estimating risk premium with cross sectional regression

I am trying to estimate a carbon risk premium according to the Fama & MacBeth methodology using a cross-sectional regression approach. Therefore, I regress the excess return in period t+1 on the ...
0 votes
0 answers
24 views

Estimating Appropriate Risk Premiums without Comparable Project Data

Objective I wish to estimate an approximate reasonable return (a) for a project, given its inherent risk and risk-free rate, and compare that to the anticipated project return (b). Such that, all else ...
1 vote
1 answer
112 views

Fama French Factor adjusted returns

I want to understand the extent to which portfolio performance can be explained by the three Fama French Factor model. I use the following approach: Regress the portfolio's excess returns against the ...
3 votes
0 answers
79 views

FRTB - Federal Reserve vs Basel

The federal reserve has released its proposed Market Risk rules for Basel III. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230727a.htm Is anyone aware of any resource that compares ...
2 votes
0 answers
148 views

Standard Deviation and Monotonicity property

I just read that standard deviation is a coherent risk measure, and therefore it should satisfy the monotonicity property: $X_1 \geq X_2 \implies \rho(X_1) \leq \rho(X_2)$ where $X_1,X_2$ are asset ...
0 votes
0 answers
126 views

"fix" a sample covariance matrix which is not positive semidefinite by using daily returns instead of monthly

In the portfolio optimization problem at hand, one of the constraints is that the tracking error should not be greater than $\gamma$. The constraint is therefore: $(\textbf{x}-\textbf{w})^\mathrm{T}\...
1 vote
1 answer
1k views

Why is the expected value of bias statistic one?

I have been reading about factor models recently. One of the ways in which the developer of these models (Barra/ Axioma) measure the accuracy of their models is by calculating the bias statistic for ...
9 votes
2 answers
11k views

Dollar-Neutral Strategy

Here is an excerpt from E. Chan's book Quantitative Trading, However, if the strategy is a long-short dollar-neutral strategy (i.e., the portfolio holds long and short positions with equal ...
2 votes
1 answer
144 views

Risk of bond calculation

I am studying a course and I am a bit confused on how to find the a bonds $\sigma$. My course mentions the following: Once calculated the expected returns on the bond $\mathrm{E}(r_d)$, we can ...

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