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True or false: roll-down return is negative when a bond is trading at a premium

These three sources all say that the bond roll-down effect is negative if the bond is trading at a premium: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rolldownreturn.asp https://corporatefinanceinstitute....
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62 views

futures roll - how is it applied to intraday data, e.g. minute level?

I have read many different approaches in rolling and adjusting futures contract to build a continuous time series. However, all of the examples I have seen are on daily data. While that is relatively ...
• 31
787 views

When I construct continuous futures data (Wheat futures for example), I get different results than barchart or tradingview. Examples below. The 1st image is my adjusted continuous data and the 2nd ...
• 1
71 views

Disalignment between global standard deviation and mean of rolling standard deviation

Ciao, I am working on proprerties of time series. I was trying to deduce an estimate of standard deviation of a process from the series of rolling standard deviation but I've got some issues when I ...
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2k views

How does one price the market value and estimate the fair value of a bond futures roll?

Consider the current situation: we are entering December, meaning that the December futures are being rolled into the March futures (i.e. traders are selling their holdings of December futures ...
• 419
1 vote
214 views

Modelling roll-over and roll yield in a forward strategy

This is a post which serves as a follow-up question to Nature of short VIX strategies. I am trying to understand where the change in value in a synthetic strategy constructed from futures comes from: ...
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1 vote
174 views

XIV Positive Roll Yield

I understand that VIX futures are usually in contango and so a portfolio that holds futures with a weighted average expiration of 30 days will "roll" down to equal the VIX index at maturity. This is ...
153 views

Libor futures rolling adjustment & curve building

Can futures rolling affect curve constructing? Let's say that i'm using future 1 and 2 to construct the short end of my curve. As i understand it, rolling will create volatility (as volumes spike), ...
• 177
457 views

Is there really a negative roll yield for futures in contango?

I am trying to wrap my head around how ETFs that track futures work (whether its USO tracking WTI futures or VXX tracking VIX futures). I have read online about how for normal contango environments, ...
• 333
1 vote
2k views

Extracting continuous futures prices on different dates with the ratio adjustment

I extract continuous prices for a set of futures contracts using Bloomberg. I select the Ratio as adjustment with the Bloomberg default settings. For instance, to extract the first/forward generic ...
• 217
366 views

time series for futures roll

I'm trying to build a multi year time series for a 3 month futures contract. How do I handle rolls? On the day of roll, volatility is high and I want to roll over to next contract series in a way that ...
• 221
304 views

what is the cost for rolling 5 year german future?

im looking at the bobl future for september and for december and see 1.8 basis points difference. i wanted to know why there is this gap? and if im holding a position in september and want to roll it ...
1 vote
99 views

For futures contracts, do we need to do price adjustment during live testing?

I am trying to do pair trading on a pair of future contracts, e.g. CME gold and silver. During the training of my trading model, I do forward adjustment on the pair of future contracts. Let the ...
• 181
7k views

IMM rolls: Are there special business day conventions?

If a trade (lets say for example a 'simple' interest rate swap) is using IMM rolls (so the interest calculation periods start and end on IMM Wed dates), are there particular/special business day ...
• 207
1k views

ETF Negative Roll Yield

I have a quick question about the ETF Roll Yield. As we all know commodity ETF’s have struggled with contango (spot price is below futures prices on the term structure). Look at an ETF like USO which ...
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