Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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77 views

What is the probability of touching point A first?

The probability of a stock touching a point A which is below the current spot price is 35%, and the probability of the stock touching a point B which is above the current spot price is 20%. How can I ...
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31 views

Which distribution has higher VaR?

Let say I have 2 distributions with cdf $F_1$ and $F_2$. And I know that $F_1 \leq F_2$. With this information I know that $F_1$ has bigger lower tail than $F_2$ but I don't think this right away ...
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43 views

Fitting ARIMA + GARCH in R

I'm forecasting Electricity consumption Data. I have data for one year , so for every 15 minutes there is an observation. My data contains seasonality and I don't know how to fit SARIMA + GARCH into R,...
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213 views

How can momentum trading strategies work if returns are not serially correlated?

Returns are demonstrably not serially correlated in most financial time series (Day 1 returns are uncorrelated to Day 2 returns etc.) . Since this is the case, how can momentum trading strategies work?...
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Presence of underestimation bias in consensus earnings predictions

I am working on a financial data that entails forecasted revenue a company generates over a fiscal quarter and the actual revenue for that quarter. ...
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44 views

Covariance of ARCH(2) model

I am having problems solving the following exercise: The solution is the following: I understand we are calculating E(r^2t) and E(r^2tr^2t-1) because they are part of the covariance formula, and ...
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1answer
93 views

Geometric brownian motion small timesteps high volatility

I'm trying to generate some sample geometric brownian motion paths for an asset which is traded 24/7 without interruption and is highly volatile (upwards to 150% implied volatility on options markets)....
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1answer
117 views

Fat tailed can be estimated through a t-distributions?

I have a simple question that makes me doubt a bit. In a multiple choise exam I ecountered this question: "if the stocks returns are not normally distributed, the fat tail effect can be estimated ...
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60 views

How to extract informative value from correlations of assets? Subadditivity of correlation calculation an issue

I was reading Nassim Taleb's Paper: Fooled by Correlation and found it very informative. I had always struggled with finding value in correlation in Finance, especially seeing a lot of bad ...
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94 views

Black-Litterman for quant portfolio

I have seen a lot of research around the Black-Litterman approach and I think theoretically, it is a nice framework. However, it appears that its main strength is from a practitioner's point of view, ...
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1answer
102 views

Deriving Law of Motion by Ito's Lemma

I've been trying to derive the law of motion for the stochastic process above using Ito's Lemma, given Geometric Brownian Motion with it's law of motion shown below: I've managed to take the partial ...
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45 views

Backtesting of outperformance of a benchmark using the Deflated Sharpe Ratio

I want to test whether, let's say, strategy A outperforms strategy B. In Marcos López de Prado's book Advances in Financial Machine Learning he presents the following statistics: The Probalistic ...
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41 views

How to calculate sharpe ratio for a strategy that has a stoploss and a profit exit condition?

I am working on a pair trading strategy, which either books a profit or holds the position till it hits stop loss over multiple days. I have months where I don't hit stop loss at all and this makes ...
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70 views

Expected value of P&L based on option prices

How can we compute the expected value of P&L assuming the option price is given? Do we need to have more information to calculate P&L?
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41 views

In Pairs Trading: How can high volatility in spreads be explained when there is a market shock?

In my project I tested a Pairs trading strategy in the US equity market for data of 10 years. These 10 years include the financial crisis (2007-2008). The strategy follows a Cointegration approach. ...
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1answer
85 views

ACT/360 and business day convention interest question

The question I've been stuck is: We have a deposit of 10 million on 2011-04-01 for 7 days at 4 percent, assume T+2 settlement, calculated with ACT/365 basis and following business day convention. (04-...
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63 views

Variance ratio test and ADF test for random walk

I am trying to use both ADF test and variance ratio test for random walk. However, the ADF test tells me my financial time series contains unit root, but variance ratio test (lo-mackinlay) rejected ...
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53 views

What happens if my risk factor caught by statistical risk model using PCA turns out to be totally different from other PM's risk factor? [closed]

In order to explain systematic risk we use risk factors and I've learned that since they try to explain 'systematic' risk, risk factors are relatively well-known. However, what happens if the risk ...
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68 views

weekly returns and the daily returns scaled to weekly

I am new in this blog and first of all I want to apologise for my english. I have to calculate, for a university project, the weekly returns and daily scaled returns to weekly for few stocks For ...
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24 views

Statistical testing of out-of-time portfolio performance (measured via a custom metric)

I'm testing (out-of-time) my machine learning (ML) based strategy against a strong benchmark. As a performance metric, I'm using a custom rolling metric $M(t)$ which takes into account the portfolio ...
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48 views

How many principal components to use for statistical risk model?

If I use every principal component to explain total variance of my portfolio, does it still make sense in portfolio optimization? Because since alpha factors try to find out and explain unexplained ...
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68 views

I require help to find a good data source for my thesis

I require help to find a good data source for my master thesis. I am doing a regression analysis for macroeconomic indicators and valuation multiples, for eurozone stocks. I need quarterly information ...
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106 views

Pairs Trading Strategy Pre-Selection

I am writing paper on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy using US equities. I have done a pre-check to see which business sectors have stocks that are cointegrated. The utilities sector ...
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108 views

Pairs Trading (Cointegration Approach) - Daily Cointegration Test

I have a question regarding the Pairs Trading strategy based on the Cointegration Approach. Most of the papers/literature I found on Pairs Trading using the Cointegration Approach are usually testing ...
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2answers
91 views

Best method to determine future success or to determine best linearity?

Long time viewer, but first time poster, so excuse me if i'm in the wrong place please. Anyway, I am working on a project that is pretty interesting. Through data mining, I am able to gather a ton of ...
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2answers
176 views

Starting Point for understanding Financial Theory for a Statistician

I am a Master’s student in Statistics who is interested in the field of Financial Modelling. I have very little experience or knowledge of Finance and have mostly worked on introductory projects in ...
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1answer
105 views

queue position value in all limits in the book

How would you evaluate the value of an order in a given limit at a given queue position in the order book ? For example let's say I am a market maker in BTC-USD and I would like to play some HFT games ...
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77 views

Prove norm $\frac{1}{p}\sum_{i=1}^n |w_i|^p$ of min-variance portfolio $\leq$ max-Sharpe portfolio

The minimum-variance portfolio weight vector is $$\boldsymbol{w}_{MV} = \frac{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1} }{\boldsymbol{1}' \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1}}$$ whereas the maximum ...
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142 views

Other statistical financial modeling textbooks like Risk and asset allocation by Attilio Meucci

I recently read about the book (Risk and asset allocation) written by Attilio Meucci and I found those statistical modeling and inference methods quite robust in my point of view, although there are ...
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47 views

Hierarchical copula vs. vine copula

Vine copulas are a sequential cascade of bivariate copulas meant to capture the hierarchical structure in the dependence structure of random variables. How does this relate or differ from the concept ...
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87 views

What should degrees of freedom $\nu$ be set to when modeling financial returns that follow the t-distribution?

The closer the t-distribution degrees of freedom ($\nu$) is to 0, the more heavy are the tails, whereas high degrees of freedom recovers the normal distribution. In finance, what value is usually used ...
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46 views

How to understand the results of the Johansen test?

So I now there are numerous pages on the johansen test, and what the results mean. Though I am confused as to what it is doing exactly. So my understanding is that it will find the spread of 2 ...
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54 views

Concentration of measure phenomena in financial mathematics

Concentration of measure is a small area of statistics and probability theory that proved inequalities regarding the statistical properties of sets of random variables that exclude one of those random ...
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1answer
116 views

sub-Gaussian random variables in financial economics

Unlike financial time series that typically possess fat tails, sub-Gaussian random variables have strong decay in the tails of their distribution. do sub-Gaussian random variables or processes appear ...
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215 views

Reinforcement learning in finance

In brief, what are some mainstream and recent applications of reinforcement learning in finance that fall outside of the usual scope of agent-based modeling?
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1answer
89 views

Someone help me understand why for portfolio variance or Parametric Value at Risk we have to compute the covariance matrix?

I understand that portfolio variance is computed through $w'Cw$, where w is the vector of weights, $C$ being the covariance matrix. However, what I don't get is this: why can't this portfolio variance ...
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1answer
137 views

What are some of the more Math-oriented professional certificates in Finance? (more math-oriented than CFA) [closed]

What are some of the more Math-oriented professional certificates in Finance? In particular, I'm interested in learning about professional certificates that are more Math/Statistics-oriented than the ...
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1answer
3k views

Calculating a Linear Weighted Moving Average in Python

Usually called WMA. The weighting is linear (as opposed to exponential) defined here: Moving Average, Weighted. I attempt to implement this in a python function as show below. The result is a list ...
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1answer
521 views

Implementation of Maximum Drawdown in python working directly with returns

I have a strategy on a stock (such as Buy and Hold) on which I have to calculate the maximum drawdown. The problem is that I'm working on returns expressed in percentages, so I do not have the time ...
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1answer
340 views

Issues making series stationary

I am trying to run some ARIMA forecasts and I switched recently from R to Python. I am struggling for some reason to make this series stationary . I try to take the log returns of stock prices as such ...
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2answers
108 views

How to use autocorrelation plot to interpret time series data?

how can we use auto correlation plot or correlogram to interpret time series data? I have 6 different acf plots (a,b,c,d,e,f), from this 6 plots what kind of informations and patterns can I identify? ...
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1answer
179 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial returns series, not just $\mu$ and $\sigma$?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
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1answer
109 views

Creating a standard Gaussian model on stock market data

One of the big problems in creating good statistical models in the stock market is because of the long tails that deviate from Gauss' [regular] bell model, is there a way to create a synthetic Gauss ...
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1answer
30 views

How to evaluate prediction(s) made of the asset return mean?

In finance, it is well-known that the expected value of asset returns, $\mu$, otherwise known as the average return or mean or first statistical moment, is difficult to predict. I think it was ...
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88 views

Is there a scientific significance to Fibonacci numbers in economics?

I am new to the field and have read popular articles on Fibonacci numbers, but I did not find it grounded in academic research and would love to know if there is a research basis for this and whether ...
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29 views

Representing relative stock price predictions in portfolio optimization

I wanted to ask a simple question in representing mathematical concepts/terms into the portfolio optimization utility functions. I have never worked with these in production environment so I am very ...
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5answers
818 views

Quantitative finance for physicists

I am looking for good books to learn quantitative finance. As I have strong background in physics, I would appreciate introductions that do not hesitate to show the equations, but in the same time ...
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1answer
103 views

Overview of frequentist, likelihood and Bayesian approaches to finance problems

In quantitative finance tasks (asset pricing, portfolio optimization, option pricing, volatility forecasting, etc), there are frequentist, likelihoodist and Bayesian approaches or interpretations to ...
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15 views

A bounded random variable is sub-Gaussian, thus financial returns are not bounded?

Bounded random variables are sub-Gaussian, yet I, intuitively, assume financial returns are bounded random variables; however, they are not sub-Gaussian. Am I wrong to assume financial returns are ...
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1answer
119 views

Compute dZ(t) : Ito's formula/lemma

We need to find dZ(t). I know I have to use Ito's formula. But I am confused because in the Ito's formula we have f(y,t) is a twice differentiable function with two variables But here Z(t) = 1/(2+x(t)...