# Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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### Testing predictability of a proposed predictor in case of multiple returns

Say I have a T daily observations for the last ten years on a new predictor $x_t$ which I think is a predictor of the expected weekly return on the stock market, $r_{t,t+5} = r_{t+1}+...+r_{t+5}$, ...
104 views

### What are the parallels between the Black-Scholes equation and the heat equation?

I'm trying to understand the analogy between the Black-Scholes equation (1) and the heat partial differential equation (2). I understand that (1) can be written in the form of (2) mathematically, but ...
60 views

### how to calculate pdf and cdf for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

I have the Task. For Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process generate a path and plot a) cumulative distribution (cdf), b) density function (pdf), c) calculate the 95%-quantile. My solution. From the literature we ...
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### Most famous research papers to get started in quant finance [duplicate]

I have a strong background in finance and I know how to code, but I am lacking the statistical modelling part. I have started courses in mathematics and statistics. However, it is turning out very ...
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241 views

### How to identify daily returns as an unusual daily return given a dataset

I am currently calculating daily returns of a stock with the following formula: $$R_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}$$ However, once I have the data, I am unable to establish a range to classify the ...
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### How does a mispricing affect CAPM/MPT statistical parameters?

In the CAPM/MPT context, would a mispricing affect the various statistical parameters? For instance, if Alpha is 2% and the CAPM E(R) is 10% (in equilibrium) and the E(Ra) = 12%, when calculating all ...
1 vote
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### Questions on constructing WML factor (Fama French)

https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html We can see that the Winner and Loser portfolios are determined by the cumulative return from t-12 to t-2. To construct the WML ...
101 views

### PCA on levels or returns, and standardized or not?

When you run PCA on some financial assets, let’s say stocks, do you calculate covariance on levels, standardized levels, returns or standardized returns? I’ve seen several papers and posts that ...
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129 views

### How you explain that result?

I'm reading this paper : What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns? Yuhang Xing, Xiaoyan Zhang, and Rui Zhao∗ In section 2. A i found this equation: ... And ...
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### Is not handling irregularity (unevenly spaced time intervals) in stock market intra-day data ok?

I read papers and it seems not doing anything to unevenly spaced time series is the implicit common sense (apart from routine preprocessing, which has nothing to do with time interval handling) for ...
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### Correlation with Differ Units of Measurement [closed]

I was wondering how to accurately get the correlation between a variable of percent change return and a variable of dollar change or basis points. Should I standardize both variables or will that lose ...
82 views

### How sector PB ratio is calculated on ticker tape?

I know what PB ratio is and I am looking forward to calculate the sector PB ratio. Here's the sector PB ratio of State Bank of India is 2.23. Link The names of companies and its corresponding details ...
333 views

### Pairs trading - is regression done on log prices or log returns?

I'm getting into pairs trading (statistical arbitrage), but I keep finding different instructions on how it's done. Some sources (like this) run the linear regression (to find hedge ratio) on the log ...
1 vote
30 views

### 2-step system-GMM for static panel models?

Could we use the 2-step system generalized method of moment (GMM) for static regression models? As I know, 2-step system GMM is designed for dynamic panel data models but I see many papers use it for ...
1 vote
58 views

I'm currently trying to implement the roll measure adapted by Easley et al. (2020, p. 22). https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3345183 The adapted roll measure is given by the eq below....
123 views

### How does this book (Financial Theory w/ Python) arrive at the solution at the bottom?

I am trying to work through understanding this but I do not know how they got to the solution at the bottom (b*). Any help?
1 vote
95 views

### Normalized statistical risk/reward measures to compare different quant trading strategy's returns, eg for backtesting

Want to select a metric or metrics to compare returns of different investment strategies, for quantitative backtesting, strategy selection, and forward measurement. Been reading different approaches ...
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1 vote
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### How to explain the " no anticipation effect" testing result in Diff-in-Diff?

Regarding Difference-in-Difference, the main assumption is the parallel trend satisfication. Regarding the parallel trend test, just simply prove the joint null test of leads coefficients equalling to ...
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### What is the probability of touching point A first?

The probability of a stock touching a point A which is below the current spot price is 35%, and the probability of the stock touching a point B which is above the current spot price is 20%. How can I ... 47 views

### Which distribution has higher VaR?

Let say I have 2 distributions with cdf $F_1$ and $F_2$. And I know that $F_1 \leq F_2$. With this information I know that $F_1$ has bigger lower tail than $F_2$ but I don't think this right away ...
138 views

### Fitting ARIMA + GARCH in R

I'm forecasting Electricity consumption Data. I have data for one year , so for every 15 minutes there is an observation. My data contains seasonality and I don't know how to fit SARIMA + GARCH into R,...
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490 views

### How can momentum trading strategies work if returns are not serially correlated?

Returns are demonstrably not serially correlated in most financial time series (Day 1 returns are uncorrelated to Day 2 returns etc.) . Since this is the case, how can momentum trading strategies work?...
1 vote
42 views

### Presence of underestimation bias in consensus earnings predictions

I am working on a financial data that entails forecasted revenue a company generates over a fiscal quarter and the actual revenue for that quarter. ...
239 views

### Geometric brownian motion small timesteps high volatility

I'm trying to generate some sample geometric brownian motion paths for an asset which is traded 24/7 without interruption and is highly volatile (upwards to 150% implied volatility on options markets)....
1 vote
201 views

### Fat tailed can be estimated through a t-distributions?

I have a simple question that makes me doubt a bit. In a multiple choise exam I ecountered this question: "if the stocks returns are not normally distributed, the fat tail effect can be estimated ...
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1 vote
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### How to extract informative value from correlations of assets? Subadditivity of correlation calculation an issue

I was reading Nassim Taleb's Paper: Fooled by Correlation and found it very informative. I had always struggled with finding value in correlation in Finance, especially seeing a lot of bad ...
138 views

### Black-Litterman for quant portfolio

I have seen a lot of research around the Black-Litterman approach and I think theoretically, it is a nice framework. However, it appears that its main strength is from a practitioner's point of view, ...
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1 vote
157 views

### Deriving Law of Motion by Ito's Lemma

I've been trying to derive the law of motion for the stochastic process above using Ito's Lemma, given Geometric Brownian Motion with it's law of motion shown below: I've managed to take the partial ...
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### Backtesting of outperformance of a benchmark using the Deflated Sharpe Ratio

I want to test whether, let's say, strategy A outperforms strategy B. In Marcos López de Prado's book Advances in Financial Machine Learning he presents the following statistics: The Probalistic ...
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### Expected value of P&L based on option prices

How can we compute the expected value of P&L assuming the option price is given? Do we need to have more information to calculate P&L?
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### ACT/360 and business day convention interest question

The question I've been stuck is: We have a deposit of 10 million on 2011-04-01 for 7 days at 4 percent, assume T+2 settlement, calculated with ACT/365 basis and following business day convention. (04-...
137 views

### Variance ratio test and ADF test for random walk

I am trying to use both ADF test and variance ratio test for random walk. However, the ADF test tells me my financial time series contains unit root, but variance ratio test (lo-mackinlay) rejected ...
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### What happens if my risk factor caught by statistical risk model using PCA turns out to be totally different from other PM's risk factor? [closed]

In order to explain systematic risk we use risk factors and I've learned that since they try to explain 'systematic' risk, risk factors are relatively well-known. However, what happens if the risk ...
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383 views

### weekly returns and the daily returns scaled to weekly

I am new in this blog and first of all I want to apologise for my english. I have to calculate, for a university project, the weekly returns and daily scaled returns to weekly for few stocks For ...
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1 vote
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### Statistical testing of out-of-time portfolio performance (measured via a custom metric)

I'm testing (out-of-time) my machine learning (ML) based strategy against a strong benchmark. As a performance metric, I'm using a custom rolling metric $M(t)$ which takes into account the portfolio ...
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1 vote
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### How many principal components to use for statistical risk model?

If I use every principal component to explain total variance of my portfolio, does it still make sense in portfolio optimization? Because since alpha factors try to find out and explain unexplained ...
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### I require help to find a good data source for my thesis

I require help to find a good data source for my master thesis. I am doing a regression analysis for macroeconomic indicators and valuation multiples, for eurozone stocks. I need quarterly information ...
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I am writing paper on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy using US equities. I have done a pre-check to see which business sectors have stocks that are cointegrated. The utilities sector ...
1 vote
191 views

### Pairs Trading (Cointegration Approach) - Daily Cointegration Test

I have a question regarding the Pairs Trading strategy based on the Cointegration Approach. Most of the papers/literature I found on Pairs Trading using the Cointegration Approach are usually testing ...
107 views

### Best method to determine future success or to determine best linearity?

Long time viewer, but first time poster, so excuse me if i'm in the wrong place please. Anyway, I am working on a project that is pretty interesting. Through data mining, I am able to gather a ton of ...
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1 vote
280 views

### Starting Point for understanding Financial Theory for a Statistician

I am a Master’s student in Statistics who is interested in the field of Financial Modelling. I have very little experience or knowledge of Finance and have mostly worked on introductory projects in ...
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1 vote
225 views

### queue position value in all limits in the book

How would you evaluate the value of an order in a given limit at a given queue position in the order book ? For example let's say I am a market maker in BTC-USD and I would like to play some HFT games ...
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1 vote
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### Prove norm $\frac{1}{p}\sum_{i=1}^n |w_i|^p$ of min-variance portfolio $\leq$ max-Sharpe portfolio

The minimum-variance portfolio weight vector is $$\boldsymbol{w}_{MV} = \frac{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1} }{\boldsymbol{1}' \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1}}$$ whereas the maximum ...
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### Other statistical financial modeling textbooks like Risk and asset allocation by Attilio Meucci

I recently read about the book (Risk and asset allocation) written by Attilio Meucci and I found those statistical modeling and inference methods quite robust in my point of view, although there are ...
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### Hierarchical copula vs. vine copula

Vine copulas are a sequential cascade of bivariate copulas meant to capture the hierarchical structure in the dependence structure of random variables. How does this relate or differ from the concept ...
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### What should degrees of freedom $\nu$ be set to when modeling financial returns that follow the t-distribution?

The closer the t-distribution degrees of freedom ($\nu$) is to 0, the more heavy are the tails, whereas high degrees of freedom recovers the normal distribution. In finance, what value is usually used ...
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1 vote
82 views

### Concentration of measure phenomena in financial mathematics

Concentration of measure is a small area of statistics and probability theory that proved inequalities regarding the statistical properties of sets of random variables that exclude one of those random ...
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### sub-Gaussian random variables in financial economics

Unlike financial time series that typically possess fat tails, sub-Gaussian random variables have strong decay in the tails of their distribution. do sub-Gaussian random variables or processes appear ...
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I understand that portfolio variance is computed through $w'Cw$, where w is the vector of weights, $C$ being the covariance matrix. However, what I don't get is this: why can't this portfolio variance ...