Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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7
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274 views

Applications of distance correlation

This question mentions distance correlation. Where has this concept been applied to financial data and provided new insight? Do you know any examples or references?
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200 views

Is it more accurate to analyze returns on a calendar day basis than a trading day basis?

I'm rather new to the actual practice of this kind of analysis, but it just seems wrong to me to throw Mondays' returns in with the rest without accounting for the passage of time on the weekend when ...
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138 views

Other statistical financial modeling textbooks like Risk and asset allocation by Attilio Meucci

I recently read about the book (Risk and asset allocation) written by Attilio Meucci and I found those statistical modeling and inference methods quite robust in my point of view, although there are ...
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2answers
96 views

Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data

I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question. My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
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106 views

Which areas of statistical physics do not get enough attention in quantitative finance?

It seems that over the past few decades many ideas from statistical physics have been successfully incorporated into economics and finance to form the sub-discipline of econophysics. However, it is ...
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83 views

Test for difference in security returns before and after financial regulation

I'm going to study the effect of corporate credit rating changes (Moody's) on stock prices before and after a specific financial regulation. So far i have used an event study where i have divided the ...
3
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0answers
106 views

Optimize an equity portfolio for the four central moments: problem formulation

Basically i am confused as to which formula to use for portfolio skew and kurtosis and how to use the same in the optimization problem. I would also like to know the options available regarding the ...
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24 views

Representing relative stock price predictions in portfolio optimization

I wanted to ask a simple question in representing mathematical concepts/terms into the portfolio optimization utility functions. I have never worked with these in production environment so I am very ...
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118 views

How to conduct an event-study for a single index (i.e the DJIA) with multiple events

I am a postgraduate student writing my thesis. I am somewhat a novice in the field I have chosen to study, however this has undoubtedly broadened my horizons. I am attempting to evaluate the impact of ...
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2answers
464 views

What is the fastest common moving average?

I am trying to find what standard moving average would give me the fastest adjustment or strongest weight to most recent data, but without changing the number of periods. Here is some sample data and ...
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34 views

Rolling sum of conditional variance

I have a model to compute the conditional expectation and variance for a return series, given various factor returns. Initially attempted to trade the deviations of actual return for the day from the ...
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280 views

Frequency Arbitrage

We know that the volatility is lower when the sampling period is longer, for example $\sigma_{7days} < \sigma_{1day}$, Then I came across this strategy that I cannot quite understand how to exploit ...
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135 views

Negative constant in GARCHX model

I am fitting the following ARX(1,1)-GARCHX(1,1,1): \begin{align*} y_t&=c+a_1y_{t-1}+\gamma_1x_t+\varepsilon_t\\ h_t&=\delta+\omega_1h_{t-1}+\theta_1\varepsilon_{t-1}^2+\pi_1x_{1,t} \end{align*...
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22 views

Statistical testing of out-of-time portfolio performance (measured via a custom metric)

I'm testing (out-of-time) my machine learning (ML) based strategy against a strong benchmark. As a performance metric, I'm using a custom rolling metric $M(t)$ which takes into account the portfolio ...
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47 views

How many principal components to use for statistical risk model?

If I use every principal component to explain total variance of my portfolio, does it still make sense in portfolio optimization? Because since alpha factors try to find out and explain unexplained ...
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88 views

Pairs Trading (Cointegration Approach) - Daily Cointegration Test

I have a question regarding the Pairs Trading strategy based on the Cointegration Approach. Most of the papers/literature I found on Pairs Trading using the Cointegration Approach are usually testing ...
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73 views

Prove norm $\frac{1}{p}\sum_{i=1}^n |w_i|^p$ of min-variance portfolio $\leq$ max-Sharpe portfolio

The minimum-variance portfolio weight vector is $$\boldsymbol{w}_{MV} = \frac{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1} }{\boldsymbol{1}' \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{-1} \boldsymbol{1}}$$ whereas the maximum ...
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40 views

Hierarchical copula vs. vine copula

Vine copulas are a sequential cascade of bivariate copulas meant to capture the hierarchical structure in the dependence structure of random variables. How does this relate or differ from the concept ...
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51 views

Concentration of measure phenomena in financial mathematics

Concentration of measure is a small area of statistics and probability theory that proved inequalities regarding the statistical properties of sets of random variables that exclude one of those random ...
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1answer
91 views

sub-Gaussian random variables in financial economics

Unlike financial time series that typically possess fat tails, sub-Gaussian random variables have strong decay in the tails of their distribution. do sub-Gaussian random variables or processes appear ...
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0answers
87 views

Is there a scientific significance to Fibonacci numbers in economics?

I am new to the field and have read popular articles on Fibonacci numbers, but I did not find it grounded in academic research and would love to know if there is a research basis for this and whether ...
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13 views

A bounded random variable is sub-Gaussian, thus financial returns are not bounded?

Bounded random variables are sub-Gaussian, yet I, intuitively, assume financial returns are bounded random variables; however, they are not sub-Gaussian. Am I wrong to assume financial returns are ...
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33 views

Asset prices Boom,Bust and Recovery cycles

Is there any systematic way to detect the Boom, bust and Recovery cycles in Asset Prices ? Are there any good references about the Topic ? Thanks in advance.
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43 views

Correlation coefficient without cash flows?

I'm an intern at a company and one of our tasks is to calculate the the probability of default of both participants of a Swap(a Client and a Bank), for which we first need the correlation coefficient ...
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32 views

How to implement Time varying EWMA cross correlation in STATA?

I have read this question, I know about lambda, demeaned subindexes. But not able to implement in STATA?
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34 views

How to count [and report] the values of significance at 1% and 5%?

I am slightly confused with this: I have calculated the Chi square for the number of funds and the methods description tells me that if the values I have calculated are greater than 3.84 (6.64) that ...
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40 views

Is there a quantitative definition of a Quiet, Moderate or Accelerate market conditions?

i know the StdDev price technical indicator which is the standard deviation but this one has an absolute value. The market conditions are: Quiet: lower oscillation of price around a constant ...
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44 views

Log likelihood function, GARCH(1,1) with asymmetric term

I am modelling a GARCH(1,1) and a GARCH(1,1) with an asymmetric term. $$h(t)=\omega+\alpha\varepsilon(t-1)^2+\beta\sigma(t-1)^2$$ and $$h(t)=\omega+\alpha u(t-1)^2+\beta\sigma(t-1)^2 + \gamma (u(...
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60 views

Pricing methods in the real world when there is more than one free arbitrage price

Perhaps this question sounds trivial and obvious, but I am starting to study this new field. When we are in a complete market without arbitrage opportunities there is only one risk-neutral martingale ...
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82 views

Dubious math in Thorp's magnum opus

I started reading Thorp's "Beat the Market" book and stumbled on a formula I can't figure out: https://imgur.com/a/xqfViKt What's the point in adding time to price and the whole probabilites ...
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102 views

Kelly's maximum for G(f)

In Thorpe's paper, Thorpe derives the Kelly criterion $$f^* = p - q$$ and plugs this into the equation $$G(f^*) = p \times \log(1+f^*) + q \times \log(1-f^*)$$ to get the following expression $...
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48 views

Tail index estimation to prove non-stable fat tail distribution

Currently I am analysing the stylized facts for some EURO FX rates. This paper states that we can prove the fat tail distribution of the FX log returns via the computation of the tail index. For a ...
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399 views

Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
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210 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: "...
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72 views

Modelling turnovers with a random walk. Is it right?

I need to analyse a bunch of weekly time series that reflect the turnovers of various companies. I already read that return rates or share prices show stochastic patterns that can be modelled by a ...
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561 views

Using the R package “ termstrc ”

I am attempting to use the function estim_nss from the termstrc package in R. However, I am experiencing the following error: ...
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35 views

Variance ratio test and ADF test for random walk

I am trying to use both ADF test and variance ratio test for random walk. However, the ADF test tells me my financial time series contains unit root, but variance ratio test (lo-mackinlay) rejected ...
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26 views

weekly returns and the daily returns scaled to weekly

I am new in this blog and first of all I want to apologise for my english. I have to calculate, for a university project, the weekly returns and daily scaled returns to weekly for few stocks For ...
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54 views

I require help to find a good data source for my thesis

I require help to find a good data source for my master thesis. I am doing a regression analysis for macroeconomic indicators and valuation multiples, for eurozone stocks. I need quarterly information ...
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87 views

Pairs Trading Strategy Pre-Selection

I am writing paper on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy using US equities. I have done a pre-check to see which business sectors have stocks that are cointegrated. The utilities sector ...
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1answer
68 views

queue position value in all limits in the book

How would you evaluate the value of an order in a given limit at a given queue position in the order book ? For example let's say I am a market maker in BTC-USD and I would like to play some HFT games ...
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71 views

What should degrees of freedom $\nu$ be set to when modeling financial returns that follow the t-distribution?

The closer the t-distribution degrees of freedom ($\nu$) is to 0, the more heavy are the tails, whereas high degrees of freedom recovers the normal distribution. In finance, what value is usually used ...
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33 views

How to understand the results of the Johansen test?

So I now there are numerous pages on the johansen test, and what the results mean. Though I am confused as to what it is doing exactly. So my understanding is that it will find the spread of 2 ...
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54 views

Optimal Change Point Detection Problem for a timeseries

W. T. Ziemba, S. Lleo and M. V. Zhitlukhin suggested an Exit Model for selling an asset based on Change Point Detection Theory from the field of Statistical Quality Control https://ideas.repec.org/h/...
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35 views

Operational Risk Loss Distribution with Insurance

** Referring to part (c) First is 5000. Am I supposed to replace the 8000 with 5000 while maintaining its probability? For the second part, which includes the cost of insurance, do I add it to the ...
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72 views

Scenario Analysis - Real life application

Given a portfolio consists of Stock = usd 40, Bond = usd 40, commodity =usd 20. Also given the correlation between these assets. Scenario 1 : stock down by 30% When performing scenario analysis, do ...
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1answer
121 views

How to apply derived beta to daily change?

I've taken three months of price return data for two instruments and calculated a $\beta$ between the two using the formula $\beta = \frac{Cov(x,y}{Var(y)}$ with the goal of estimating what the ...
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68 views

Is there a mathematical way of showing the slowing down of economic markets?

I'm currently taking a introductory mathematical finance course in university and recently on the news (BBC, etc), it states that the economic markets are shown to be slowing down for the next few ...
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50 views

Multi-Variate linear modeling: how to calculate mathematically vs brute force genetic optimization

I have a hand full of daily economic data. I am currently using a brute force approach. Genetic optimization is only used when k is very large. This method is beautiful to me, but isn't valuable ...
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76 views

CAPM Beta zero-correlation performance issue

I am working on a research project that requires me to run a CAPM regression on all intra-day stock quotes in NSDAQ, NYSE and all other U.S. exchanges since 1993. The precision of the quote data is ...