Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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19
votes
10answers
11k views

Usage of Random forests in Quantitative analysis of stocks

I have a question about Random forests and how they could be utilized in trading? I heard Random forests are used for classification, is that accurate? If so, could someone give an example of what ...
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2answers
554 views

How reliable is Benford's Law in forecasting crises?

I was recently reading an article about how financial accounting has increasingly deviated from the ratios expected by Benford's Law. (Benford's Law and Decreasing Reliability). The author discusses ...
17
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1answer
2k views

statistical arbitrage vs factor trading

I've recently read Avellaneda & Lee which seems to be widely recommended as an introduction to Statistical Arbitrage methods in trading. For those who aren't familiar with the paper, the method in ...
9
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2answers
3k views

What is the total correlation between assets in a portfolio?

Suppose I have portfolio with 10 assets, each one of them with a weight of 10% from the total portfolio (equally weighted). It's well known how to measure from historical prices->returns a variance-...
9
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5answers
439 views

Can classical economics explain *any* of the so-called stylized facts of finance?

I am doing some reading on the (historical) emergence of the Black-Scholes implied volatility smile for index options (yes - post 87), and I stumbled across an economic paper attempting to explain the ...
9
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2answers
3k views

What are the econometric assumptions in the Fama-Macbeth procedure (1973)?

Fama-Macbeth (1973) introduce a two stage cross-sectional regression method (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fama%E2%80%93MacBeth_regression). 1) If I was to regress stock prices (or returns) on a ...
8
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1answer
1k views

Does Chan use the wrong state transition model in his Kalman filter code?

In his book, Algorithmic Trading: Winning Strategies and Their Rationale, Ernie Chan shows how to use a Kalman filter to improve the returns of a cointegrated portfolio. Recall that the state equation ...
7
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0answers
273 views

Applications of distance correlation

This question mentions distance correlation. Where has this concept been applied to financial data and provided new insight? Do you know any examples or references?
5
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5answers
548 views

Quantitative finance for physicists

I am looking for good books to learn quantitative finance. As I have strong background in physics, I would appreciate introductions that do not hesitate to show the equations, but in the same time ...
5
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0answers
200 views

Is it more accurate to analyze returns on a calendar day basis than a trading day basis?

I'm rather new to the actual practice of this kind of analysis, but it just seems wrong to me to throw Mondays' returns in with the rest without accounting for the passage of time on the weekend when ...
4
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2answers
935 views

Basic question on Portfolio Theory

I was revising my stuff about portfolio theory and I noticed that every single time, expected return and corresponding variance or covariance are given! (not calculating ourselves). So I'm just ...
4
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2answers
2k views

What are the assumptions in the first-stage of Fama-MacBeth (1973)?

According to the CAPM, the expected return of asset $i$ is: $E(Z_i) = \beta_{im} E(Z_m)$ where $Z_m$ is the excess return on the market portfolio, and $Z_i$ is the excess return of asset $i$ over ...
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3answers
914 views

Measuring historical earnings surprises, their frequency and severity

This is my first post to Quantitative Finance, so I hope my question is formatted the right way. I am starting to research the effects of earnings surprises on certain equity indices. Is there a ...
4
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1answer
281 views

Markowitz portfolio in reality

I am in academia and begin to work on topics including portfolio optimization. I just read lots of paper discussing different extensions to the Markowitz approach, given different (possibly ...
4
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1answer
113 views

Exposure/Factor Analysis on a loan portfolio?

I am working on performing factor analysis on a loan portfolio. This is my understanding so far, and I was hoping that some of the smart folks here might be able to chime and guide me through this ...
3
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2answers
465 views

Value at Risk - What if an account has never suffered from a negative return

I want to implement an algorithm that calculates an account's 95% value at risk on a monthly return base. The case I want to describe in this question is rather academic and will probably never happen ...
3
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2answers
162 views

Statistical estimation vs Stochastic calibration of models

I have never been able to deduce the precise differences between model building from the statistical perspective and the stochastic processes/calibration perspective. I can only infer that these are ...
3
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1answer
116 views

Why is the CAPM Beta defined this way - Beta hedging

Let's say I have two equity indices X and Y. Assume they are negatively correlated with some leverage. I want to hedge X with Y. I have seen many ways of computing a beta to describes the ...
3
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1answer
328 views

Compare events effect on stock prices from different time periods

I’m going to test for the effect corporate credit rating announcements have on stock prices through different economic climates (good times vs. bad times). I want to research whether or not the stock ...
3
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1answer
226 views

Regarding “Two Singular Diffusion Problems” by William Feller

I'm currently reading the research paper, Two Singular Diffusion Problems, by William Feller (1950). However, I don't understand how Feller derived the solution $(3.5)$ given equation $(3.4)$ in his ...
3
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0answers
138 views

Other statistical financial modeling textbooks like Risk and asset allocation by Attilio Meucci

I recently read about the book (Risk and asset allocation) written by Attilio Meucci and I found those statistical modeling and inference methods quite robust in my point of view, although there are ...
3
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2answers
96 views

Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data

I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question. My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
3
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0answers
106 views

Which areas of statistical physics do not get enough attention in quantitative finance?

It seems that over the past few decades many ideas from statistical physics have been successfully incorporated into economics and finance to form the sub-discipline of econophysics. However, it is ...
3
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0answers
83 views

Test for difference in security returns before and after financial regulation

I'm going to study the effect of corporate credit rating changes (Moody's) on stock prices before and after a specific financial regulation. So far i have used an event study where i have divided the ...
3
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0answers
106 views

Optimize an equity portfolio for the four central moments: problem formulation

Basically i am confused as to which formula to use for portfolio skew and kurtosis and how to use the same in the optimization problem. I would also like to know the options available regarding the ...
3
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2answers
124 views

Using cumulative returns to hedge against the overall trend

I am curious about a hypothetical strategy where you are long for a given period (like a year), and at the same time you hedge against the overall trend by going short everyday and accumulating the ...
2
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4answers
18k views

Are PX_BID and PX_ASK on Bloomberg closing bid/ask? or are they daily averaged?

Bloomberg provides PX_BID and PX_ASK on a daily basis, but it's not clear exactly where these numbers come from. Are they closing bid and ask prices, or are they averaged over the entire day? For ...
2
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2answers
715 views

Creating a Covariance Matrix

Lets say that you have the correlation of x,y and you have the standard deviations of x and y , how would you then find the covariance of x,y using the correlation of x,y and and the standard ...
2
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2answers
1k views

What are the advantages of financial modelling in R? [closed]

Recently I've found out that quantitative department in my company uses mostly R software for modeling in general. What is the advantage of modeling financial data in R instead of Excel, or some ...
2
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1answer
166 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial returns series, not just $\mu$ and $\sigma$?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
2
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3answers
136 views

Does longer time horizon necessarily imply reduced risk?

Is there a mathematical/statistical basis for the commonly-held belief that the longer certain assets (particularly equities) are held, the less risk the investor is exposed to? Alternatively, is ...
2
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2answers
1k views

Variable Drift Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is defined as the stochastic process that solves the following SDE: $dx_t = \theta (\mu-x_t)\,dt + \sigma\, dW_t$ where $\theta>0$, $\mu$ and $\sigma>0$ are ...
2
votes
1answer
314 views

Implementation of Maximum Drawdown in python working directly with returns

I have a strategy on a stock (such as Buy and Hold) on which I have to calculate the maximum drawdown. The problem is that I'm working on returns expressed in percentages, so I do not have the time ...
2
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1answer
743 views

CAPM Calculations

Im trying to calculate Alpha using CAPM & I have data on everything necessary. $$R_t-R_f={\alpha}+{\beta}\times(R_m-R_f)$$ i.e. $${\alpha}=R_t-R_t-{\beta}\times(R_m-R_f)$$ In more detail, I ...
2
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2answers
386 views

Fama/Macbeth Regression - negative estimate for market premium

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth regression to estimate the risk premia of Mkt-Rf, HML and SMB. As a result, I got a negative risk premium for Mkt-Rf which makes no sense in my opinion. As I couldn't ...
2
votes
2answers
190 views

Utility functions, are they used in the real world by hedge funds, banks, etc?

I am starting to study mathematical finance. When I studied microeconomics and macroeconomics I studied utility functions, but I never saw how they are in the real world. I do not see how they can be ...
2
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2answers
216 views

Applying my Machine Learning class (possibly to small markets) [closed]

I've finished a university course in statistical machine learning that covered topics such as regression, classification, neural networks, SVM, PCA etc. The class was quite tough and rigorous (we had ...
2
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1answer
191 views

Where can I find ideas for strategies? [closed]

Every book I read refers me to many other books, there is practically no way I can read all this text in my life time. Once and for all, where is the best place to fish for ideas?
2
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3answers
3k views

Detrending price data for analysis of signal returns

I'm looking to conduct hypothesis tests on some of my trading signals to see if the signal returns are statistically significant enough to falsify my null hypothesis that the signal has no predictive ...
2
votes
1answer
222 views

Showing the Gaussian shift theorem for bivariate case

I was reading about the Gaussian shift theorem in "An Introduction to Exotic Option Pricing" by Peter Buchen and came across a question that I can't seem to figure. In the book, he uses F(Z) (a ...
2
votes
1answer
125 views

Assessing goodness of a Technical Trading Rule using a ROC model

I am testing various technical trading rules (TTR) on the cryptocurrency market. I have already setup some significance tests, to compare the returns and volatilities. I would now like to test it ...
2
votes
1answer
105 views

Asset class dynamics differences

If we compare daily return dynamics of the main asset class time series (e.g. Stock indexes, bonds, precious commodities, etc) do we observe quantifiable differences? Are there some reference paper on ...
2
votes
1answer
351 views

Likelihood Ratio Method - Delta

I was checking Glasserman(2004) - Monte Carlo for Financial Engineering and got to the likelihood ratio method. I am also looking in my textbook (M. Cerrato: The Mathematics of derivatives securities ...
2
votes
1answer
224 views

How to construct a cointegrating vector using more than 2 price series in R?

I use now this code from hier Why does the following data fail my cointegration test? with slightly modification of possibility to load something directly from Dropbox file storage . ...
2
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1answer
1k views

Running a simple alpha estimation test for statistical significance of a signal

I'm looking for some direction on testing whether a simple entry signal has statistical significance. Let's say this is my simple entry signal: Buy when some indicator has a positive slope and is ...
2
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0answers
24 views

Representing relative stock price predictions in portfolio optimization

I wanted to ask a simple question in representing mathematical concepts/terms into the portfolio optimization utility functions. I have never worked with these in production environment so I am very ...
2
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0answers
118 views

How to conduct an event-study for a single index (i.e the DJIA) with multiple events

I am a postgraduate student writing my thesis. I am somewhat a novice in the field I have chosen to study, however this has undoubtedly broadened my horizons. I am attempting to evaluate the impact of ...
2
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2answers
463 views

What is the fastest common moving average?

I am trying to find what standard moving average would give me the fastest adjustment or strongest weight to most recent data, but without changing the number of periods. Here is some sample data and ...
2
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0answers
34 views

Rolling sum of conditional variance

I have a model to compute the conditional expectation and variance for a return series, given various factor returns. Initially attempted to trade the deviations of actual return for the day from the ...
2
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0answers
280 views

Frequency Arbitrage

We know that the volatility is lower when the sampling period is longer, for example $\sigma_{7days} < \sigma_{1day}$, Then I came across this strategy that I cannot quite understand how to exploit ...