Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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58 views

Cross Product Ratio Analysis

Can you please advise? I have been recently trying to sort this out for couple of days but cannot get the same numbers as previous authors: The equation is shown in Agarwal and Naik Multi-Period ...
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101 views

Most profitable? High % but low probability or Low % but high probability

I have identified a pattern in different assets where a quick spike/flash crash often occurs, dropping the price between -5% and -15% for a few seconds and then going back to previous average. I am ...
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49 views

Testing the accuracy of a created Index

So long story short, I created a Oil/Energy Index from a basket of 5 stocks in the asset class. I am looking to use mean-reversion, in order to help rebalance the allocation of funds between ...
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96 views

Longterm memory in interest rate data - R/S analysis

Am currently investigating long term memory in interest rate data. The two sources I am using are Peters (1996), "Fractal Market Analysis" and an article published in the Journal of Fixed Income, "...
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69 views

which method is the roubust method to estimate the Hurst parameter?

I know there exist lots of method to estimate the Hurst parameter, such as R/S, V/S, GHE, DFA, DMA, Wavelet Spectral Density, Whittle and so on. Can you tell me which one is the best one. Is anyone ...
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79 views

Ljung_Box Statistic of R and R^2 values in Return analysis

I have found a result that I find truly puzzling. Here is an extract from a GARCH-Analysis I have performed: Test______________Statistic_______p-Value Ljung-Box Test_____R Q(10)_____0....
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1answer
54 views

Thorp's var caclulation

I have been working through Thorp's paper, and with some guidance have got as far as page 20, but I am now stuck with Thorp's result in Ex 6.2 (on that page) where I cannot get the result for $Cor(X_1,...
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268 views

Likelihood Ratio Method - Delta

I was checking Glasserman(2004) - Monte Carlo for Financial Engineering and got to the likelihood ratio method. I am also looking in my textbook (M. Cerrato: The Mathematics of derivatives securities ...
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1answer
129 views

Simple simulation model of bond plus cash returns

Is there a robust way to model 'bond plus cash' simulated returns, say in Excel, for an asset allocation problem between stocks vs bond plus cash? For equity, ...
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1answer
243 views

Financial Mathematics essay topic

I have a mathematics background and I am currently doing a Masters in Financial Mathematics. I am required to write an essay in a financial mathematics area but I have little knowledge about it since ...
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2answers
422 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
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441 views

Why are indifference equations in mean-variance portfolio theory convex shaped

As the title suggests why is the indifference equations in mean variance portfolio theory convex shaped? Indifference Equation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indifference_curve A graph:
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37 views

Correlation coefficient without cash flows?

I'm an intern at a company and one of our tasks is to calculate the the probability of default of both participants of a Swap(a Client and a Bank), for which we first need the correlation coefficient ...
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15 views

How to implement Time varying EWMA cross correlation in STATA?

I have read this question, I know about lambda, demeaned subindexes. But not able to implement in STATA?
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20 views

Show that the variance of the portfolio market portfolio is function of the betas of its consituents [closed]

Let us assume that the market portfolio consists of n assets. Given that the return of the market portfolio can be written as $r_m = \sum_{j=1}^{n} w_jr_j$, we have that $\sigma^2_m = E(\sum_{j=1}^{n} ...
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1answer
185 views

What is the fastest common moving average?

I am trying to find what standard moving average would give me the fastest adjustment or strongest weight to most recent data, but without changing the number of periods. Here is some sample data and ...
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30 views

Statistical procedures on comparing the four Asset pricing models [closed]

I'm a business student and currently writing my thesis on comparing asset pricing models on industry portfolio returns. Being a business student, I lack the knowledge for statistical analysis ; so I ...
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43 views

Decomposition of interest rate risk [closed]

Hi I needed some clarification on something. I have three variables: V1 which is an indicator of an interest rate risk premia V2 which is an indicator of a credit risk premia V3 which is an ...
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32 views

How to count [and report] the values of significance at 1% and 5%?

I am slightly confused with this: I have calculated the Chi square for the number of funds and the methods description tells me that if the values I have calculated are greater than 3.84 (6.64) that ...
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36 views

Is there a quantitative definition of a Quiet, Moderate or Accelerate market conditions?

i know the StdDev price technical indicator which is the standard deviation but this one has an absolute value. The market conditions are: Quiet: lower oscillation of price around a constant ...
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38 views

Log likelihood function, GARCH(1,1) with asymmetric term

I am modelling a GARCH(1,1) and a GARCH(1,1) with an asymmetric term. $$h(t)=\omega+\alpha\varepsilon(t-1)^2+\beta\sigma(t-1)^2$$ and $$h(t)=\omega+\alpha u(t-1)^2+\beta\sigma(t-1)^2 + \gamma (u(...
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59 views

Pricing methods in the real world when there is more than one free arbitrage price

Perhaps this question sounds trivial and obvious, but I am starting to study this new field. When we are in a complete market without arbitrage opportunities there is only one risk-neutral martingale ...
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76 views

Dubious math in Thorp's magnum opus

I started reading Thorp's "Beat the Market" book and stumbled on a formula I can't figure out: https://imgur.com/a/xqfViKt What's the point in adding time to price and the whole probabilites ...
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79 views

Which stats are the best predictors of model sucess in real time? [closed]

What are the best predictors of real time model success in quantitative trading, i.e. # of transactions, length of backtest, StdDev, Skewness, Excess Kurtosis etc and what are the numerical values of ...
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73 views

Moving average variance [closed]

I have generated a random series of returns drawn from a normal distribution and generated a random price series by compounding these returns (X) so $P_i = P_1(1+X)^i$. I want to show the analytic ...
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99 views

Kelly's maximum for G(f)

In Thorpe's paper, Thorpe derives the Kelly criterion $$f^* = p - q$$ and plugs this into the equation $$G(f^*) = p \times \log(1+f^*) + q \times \log(1-f^*)$$ to get the following expression $...
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45 views

Tail index estimation to prove non-stable fat tail distribution

Currently I am analysing the stylized facts for some EURO FX rates. This paper states that we can prove the fat tail distribution of the FX log returns via the computation of the tail index. For a ...
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278 views

Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
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187 views

ISM PMI data - sector trend through ranking and seasonal decomposition

I have monthly data for each of the 18 sectors in the ISM PMI. Each datapoint shows the trend of a sector: growing, contracting or neutral. It also tells the strength of that trend with a number: "...
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71 views

Modelling turnovers with a random walk. Is it right?

I need to analyse a bunch of weekly time series that reflect the turnovers of various companies. I already read that return rates or share prices show stochastic patterns that can be modelled by a ...
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538 views

Using the R package “ termstrc ”

I am attempting to use the function estim_nss from the termstrc package in R. However, I am experiencing the following error: ...
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1answer
138 views

Calculating a VWAP using close prices snapshot

I was wondering, is it possible to calculate a daily VWAP (Volume weighted Average Price) from the close snap shot (close price, high, low open and total volume traded over the day)? If so is there a ...
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145 views

what % of stocks with +$1b market cap will double in 3 years on average historically?

If I'm looking to pick stocks that will double in 3 years, how do I figure out what is the likely universe that I'm choosing from? I just want a rough estimate of the universe given the market cap ...
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206 views

Component VaR is additive but at what level

I have a portfolio data as ...
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20 views

Operational Risk Loss Distribution with Insurance

** Referring to part (c) First is 5000. Am I supposed to replace the 8000 with 5000 while maintaining its probability? For the second part, which includes the cost of insurance, do I add it to the ...
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54 views

Scenario Analysis - Real life application

Given a portfolio consists of Stock = usd 40, Bond = usd 40, commodity =usd 20. Also given the correlation between these assets. Scenario 1 : stock down by 30% When performing scenario analysis, do ...
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31 views

Need help figuring out probability that price will be touched in a specific time period

I have a formulas for figuring out probability the price will be struck within T days. Now what I need help with is figuring out the probability price will be stuck with in a given (T) minutes, or (T) ...
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1answer
78 views

How to apply derived beta to daily change?

I've taken three months of price return data for two instruments and calculated a $\beta$ between the two using the formula $\beta = \frac{Cov(x,y}{Var(y)}$ with the goal of estimating what the ...
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1answer
54 views

Brownian motion

Suppose I have the process $X = X(t)$ for $t \ge 0$ given by $X(t) = \sqrt{t}*Z \,\forall t \ge 0$ where $Z$ is normally distributed with $N(0,1)$. Is this a Brownian motion? Solution yields: $$X(...
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68 views

Is there a mathematical way of showing the slowing down of economic markets?

I'm currently taking a introductory mathematical finance course in university and recently on the news (BBC, etc), it states that the economic markets are shown to be slowing down for the next few ...
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39 views

Multi-Variate linear modeling: how to calculate mathematically vs brute force genetic optimization

I have a hand full of daily economic data. I am currently using a brute force approach. Genetic optimization is only used when k is very large. This method is beautiful to me, but isn't valuable ...
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87 views

Kelly Variance - variance of the sum of logs

I am working through Thorpe's Ch 9 on the Kelly criterion. On page 9 Thorpe states: $$Var(ln(1+Y_if)] = p[ln(1+f)]^2 + q[ln(1-f)]^2 - m^2$$ Since $var(X) = E[X^2] - m^2$, $$p[ln(1+f)]^2 + q[ln(...
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59 views

CAPM Beta zero-correlation performance issue

I am working on a research project that requires me to run a CAPM regression on all intra-day stock quotes in NSDAQ, NYSE and all other U.S. exchanges since 1993. The precision of the quote data is ...
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33 views

Where can I find statistical data about legal lawsuits against commercial and investment banks?

I am searching international statistical data about legal lawsuits against banks over allegations on on money laundering, tax fraud, suspicious transaction, financial markets prices manipulation, ...
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33 views

Nature of the sample [closed]

When we calculate a difference between the market price and modelled price. so to test the significance whether we apply dependent test or independent test.
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1k views

Implied Volatility of stock on Think or Swim

Think or swim has this thing where they have do a implied volatility of a stock. I have chatted with the TOS people but they aren't terribly helpful. Regardless they did send me two images of what ...
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1answer
629 views

Which book would you recommend for beginners in Quantitative Finance? [closed]

I have a normal high school level of mathematics including some statistics and find the world of Quantitative Finance both alien and invigorating at the same time so, would like to learn more. What ...
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118 views

For a trading strategy how many trades have to occur for statistical significance [closed]

I created a strategy using a regression on a price series. I tested it with many walk-forward analyses and it has passed. I am currently live trading it with real capital (the ultimate test). My ...