Questions tagged [statistical-finance]

Statistical finance, which is also called 'econophysics' is the application of statistical tools to the study of financial markets data.

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2answers
207 views

Fama/Macbeth Regression - negative estimate for market premium

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth regression to estimate the risk premia of Mkt-Rf, HML and SMB. As a result, I got a negative risk premium for Mkt-Rf which makes no sense in my opinion. As I couldn't ...
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1answer
55 views

Calculating a Linear Weighted Moving Average in Python

Usually called WMA. The weighting is linear (as opposed to exponential) defined here: Moving Average, Weighted. I attempt to implement this in a python function as show below. The result is a list ...
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1answer
130 views

Implementation of Maximum Drawdown in python working directly with returns

I have a strategy on a stock (such as Buy and Hold) on which I have to calculate the maximum drawdown. The problem is that I'm working on returns expressed in percentages, so I do not have the time ...
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2answers
83 views

Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data

I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question. My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
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1answer
322 views

What is the fastest common moving average?

I am trying to find what standard moving average would give me the fastest adjustment or strongest weight to most recent data, but without changing the number of periods. Here is some sample data and ...
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1answer
76 views

Overview of frequentist, likelihood and Bayesian approaches to finance problems

In quantitative finance tasks (asset pricing, portfolio optimization, option pricing, volatility forecasting, etc), there are frequentist, likelihoodist and Bayesian approaches or interpretations to ...
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1answer
107 views

How to apply derived beta to daily change?

I've taken three months of price return data for two instruments and calculated a $\beta$ between the two using the formula $\beta = \frac{Cov(x,y}{Var(y)}$ with the goal of estimating what the ...
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1answer
69 views

What is the R code for estimating copula parameters of BB1 with dim=2? And what's the code for gof test of BB1?

Kindly assist with R code for BB1 copula. Text books and research articles provide codes for clayton, gumbel, frank, normal and t copulas. However, I can't find code for BB1. For example, this is ...
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1answer
74 views

Issues making series stationary

I am trying to run some ARIMA forecasts and I switched recently from R to Python. I am struggling for some reason to make this series stationary . I try to take the log returns of stock prices as such ...
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2answers
63 views

How to use autocorrelation plot to interpret time series data?

how can we use auto correlation plot or correlogram to interpret time series data? I have 6 different acf plots (a,b,c,d,e,f), from this 6 plots what kind of informations and patterns can I identify? ...
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1answer
109 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial dataset, not just mu and sigma?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
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1answer
68 views

Creating a standard Gaussian model on stock market data

One of the big problems in creating good statistical models in the stock market is because of the long tails that deviate from Gauss' [regular] bell model, is there a way to create a synthetic Gauss ...
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53 views

Optimal Change Point Detection Problem for a timeseries

W. T. Ziemba, S. Lleo and M. V. Zhitlukhin suggested an Exit Model for selling an asset based on Change Point Detection Theory from the field of Statistical Quality Control https://ideas.repec.org/h/...
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1answer
26 views

How to evaluate prediction(s) made of the asset return mean?

In finance, it is well-known that the expected value of asset returns, $\mu$, otherwise known as the average return or mean or first statistical moment, is difficult to predict. I think it was ...
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0answers
80 views

Is there a scientific significance to Fibonacci numbers in economics?

I am new to the field and have read popular articles on Fibonacci numbers, but I did not find it grounded in academic research and would love to know if there is a research basis for this and whether ...
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345 views

Quantitative finance for physicists

I am looking for good books to learn quantitative finance. As I have strong background in physics, I would appreciate introductions that do not hesitate to show the equations, but in the same time ...
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18 views

Representing relative stock price predictions in portfolio optimization

I wanted to ask a simple question in representing mathematical concepts/terms into the portfolio optimization utility functions. I have never worked with these in production environment so I am very ...
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1answer
85 views

Exposure/Factor Analysis on a loan portfolio?

I am working on performing factor analysis on a loan portfolio. This is my understanding so far, and I was hoping that some of the smart folks here might be able to chime and guide me through this ...
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12 views

A bounded random variable is sub-Gaussian, thus financial returns are not bounded?

Bounded random variables are sub-Gaussian, yet I, intuitively, assume financial returns are bounded random variables; however, they are not sub-Gaussian. Am I wrong to assume financial returns are ...
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1answer
75 views

Compute dZ(t) : Ito's formula/lemma

We need to find dZ(t). I know I have to use Ito's formula. But I am confused because in the Ito's formula we have f(y,t) is a twice differentiable function with two variables But here Z(t) = 1/(2+x(t)...
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20 views

Using monthly CRSP EWRET to build equally weighted portfolios based on market equity and book to value ( SAS)?

I was wondering if it is possible to download the EWRET variable from Wharton in order to construct equally-weighted portfolios and rebalance every June? I have seen a few fancy codes for this ...
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2answers
1k views

What are the assumptions in the first-stage of Fama-MacBeth (1973)?

According to the CAPM, the expected return of asset $i$ is: $E(Z_i) = \beta_{im} E(Z_m)$ where $Z_m$ is the excess return on the market portfolio, and $Z_i$ is the excess return of asset $i$ over ...
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1answer
62 views

Predicting time series based on another

This is more of a generic question, but I'm sure it has a best answer/methodology which is what I'm trying to reach. I'm trying to figure out a solid line of thought when looking at a time series X ...
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1answer
208 views

Markowitz portfolio in reality

I am in academia and begin to work on topics including portfolio optimization. I just read lots of paper discussing different extensions to the Markowitz approach, given different (possibly ...
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2answers
353 views

Creating a Covariance Matrix

Lets say that you have the correlation of x,y and you have the standard deviations of x and y , how would you then find the covariance of x,y using the correlation of x,y and and the standard ...
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4answers
16k views

Are PX_BID and PX_ASK on Bloomberg closing bid/ask? or are they daily averaged?

Bloomberg provides PX_BID and PX_ASK on a daily basis, but it's not clear exactly where these numbers come from. Are they closing bid and ask prices, or are they averaged over the entire day? For ...
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33 views

Asset prices Boom,Bust and Recovery cycles

Is there any systematic way to detect the Boom, bust and Recovery cycles in Asset Prices ? Are there any good references about the Topic ? Thanks in advance.
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44 views

Simulate option prices [closed]

Starting value = 3110.29 K = 3100 Trading days = 20 Need to simulate the price of an option by using these 2 methods. ( For homoscedastic errors ). *This is what I have already set up <...
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1answer
186 views

INTERPRETING PCA ANALYSIS

I am having little trouble figuring our which variables are the most important when I am using PCA . What I am trying to do is see which variables explain the most variance when it comes to stock ...
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1answer
158 views

PCA FOR STOCK PICKING

lets say I am an equity analyst and I want to figure out what fundamental metrics I should use when I am analyzing an industry , I can use pca on a bunch of stocks in an industry using their ...
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57 views

Pca for Portfolio Theory

given the fact that if you take the portfolio returns for different assets in a portfolio the first principle component represents the market exposure of the portfolio and the second principle ...
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0answers
41 views

Correlation coefficient without cash flows?

I'm an intern at a company and one of our tasks is to calculate the the probability of default of both participants of a Swap(a Client and a Bank), for which we first need the correlation coefficient ...
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1answer
47 views

Asset return distribution

What is the basis for assumption that asset prices follow a log normal distribution? Then how is it transformed to say that asset return follows a normal distribution? How this relationship between ...
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1answer
90 views

Nelson & Siegel model (Fixed Income Securities)

I am well aware of the basic model formula and for what it is used, theoretically speaking, however I cannot find any concrete, problem solving exercises. Soon, I will have to deal with this problem ...
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2answers
121 views

Using cumulative returns to hedge against the overall trend

I am curious about a hypothetical strategy where you are long for a given period (like a year), and at the same time you hedge against the overall trend by going short everyday and accumulating the ...
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0answers
76 views

How to conduct an event-study for a single index (i.e the DJIA) with multiple events

I am a postgraduate student writing my thesis. I am somewhat a novice in the field I have chosen to study, however this has undoubtedly broadened my horizons. I am attempting to evaluate the impact of ...
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0answers
27 views

How to implement Time varying EWMA cross correlation in STATA?

I have read this question, I know about lambda, demeaned subindexes. But not able to implement in STATA?
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1answer
65 views

Why is the CAPM Beta defined this way - Beta hedging

Let's say I have two equity indices X and Y. Assume they are negatively correlated with some leverage. I want to hedge X with Y. I have seen many ways of computing a beta to describes the ...
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28 views

Operational Risk Loss Distribution with Insurance

** Referring to part (c) First is 5000. Am I supposed to replace the 8000 with 5000 while maintaining its probability? For the second part, which includes the cost of insurance, do I add it to the ...
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1answer
46 views

Show that the variance of the market portfolio is the weighted average of the ovariances between each constituent and the market portfolio itself

Let us assume that the market portfolio consists of n assets. Given that the return of the market portfolio can be written as $r_m = \sum_{j=1}^{n} w_jr_j$, we have that $\sigma^2_m = E(\sum_{j=1}^{n} ...
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1answer
115 views

Assessing goodness of a Technical Trading Rule using a ROC model

I am testing various technical trading rules (TTR) on the cryptocurrency market. I have already setup some significance tests, to compare the returns and volatilities. I would now like to test it ...
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69 views

Scenario Analysis - Real life application

Given a portfolio consists of Stock = usd 40, Bond = usd 40, commodity =usd 20. Also given the correlation between these assets. Scenario 1 : stock down by 30% When performing scenario analysis, do ...
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0answers
23 views

Show that the variance of the portfolio market portfolio is function of the betas of its consituents [closed]

Let us assume that the market portfolio consists of n assets. Given that the return of the market portfolio can be written as $r_m = \sum_{j=1}^{n} w_jr_j$, we have that $\sigma^2_m = E(\sum_{j=1}^{n} ...
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0answers
30 views

Statistical procedures on comparing the four Asset pricing models [closed]

I'm a business student and currently writing my thesis on comparing asset pricing models on industry portfolio returns. Being a business student, I lack the knowledge for statistical analysis ; so I ...
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268 views

Applications of distance correlation

This question mentions distance correlation. Where has this concept been applied to financial data and provided new insight? Do you know any examples or references?
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0answers
44 views

Decomposition of interest rate risk [closed]

Hi I needed some clarification on something. I have three variables: V1 which is an indicator of an interest rate risk premia V2 which is an indicator of a credit risk premia V3 which is an ...
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1answer
68 views

Cross Product Ratio Analysis

Can you please advise? I have been recently trying to sort this out for couple of days but cannot get the same numbers as previous authors: The equation is shown in Agarwal and Naik Multi-Period ...
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0answers
39 views

Is there a quantitative definition of a Quiet, Moderate or Accelerate market conditions?

i know the StdDev price technical indicator which is the standard deviation but this one has an absolute value. The market conditions are: Quiet: lower oscillation of price around a constant ...
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32 views

How to count [and report] the values of significance at 1% and 5%?

I am slightly confused with this: I have calculated the Chi square for the number of funds and the methods description tells me that if the values I have calculated are greater than 3.84 (6.64) that ...
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2answers
2k views

Implied Volatility of stock on Think or Swim

Think or swim has this thing where they have do a implied volatility of a stock. I have chatted with the TOS people but they aren't terribly helpful. Regardless they did send me two images of what ...