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Questions tagged [statistics]

The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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300 views

How to measure statistical significance of a non-binary-position trading strategy for an irregular time series?

What are the different ways to identify/measure whether a trade strategy is statistically significant? Specifically I have an irregular time series of individual trades between: other buyers and ...
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0answers
19 views

Choosing observations/sample selection in behaviour credit scoring models

In retail banking the credit risk of a creditor after the credit had been granted is often modeled using behavioral credit scoring. In this setting the customer already has an account (or a few) and ...
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1answer
53 views

How to apply derived beta to daily change?

I've taken three months of price return data for two instruments and calculated a $\beta$ between the two using the formula $\beta = \frac{Cov(x,y}{Var(y)}$ with the goal of estimating what the ...
2
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0answers
59 views

Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?

McLean/Pontiff (2016) give evidence that portfolio returns are 26% lower out-of-sample and 58% lower after publishing an academic paper on variables, which are likely to predict cross-sectional ...
1
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1answer
68 views

selecting key performance indicators for a stock

Say, I read a financial statement of a company, and it reports, maybe 20-30 metrics, both generic, like revenue, free cash flow and specific to the company, like iphone sales etc. Is there a ...
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0answers
66 views

Why does computing correlation between index levels vs. percentage changes yield completely different results?

I am examining the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Industrial Production Index. Computing the correlation between these these variables yield vastly different results if expressed in ...
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0answers
15 views

What sources of online social data could be useful in quantitative finance?

Research by Tobias Preis and Suzy Moat over the years has looked into how online social data such as Google Trends may be useful in quantitative finance. See the article on Quantifying Trading ...
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2answers
129 views

Estimating realised gains given growth rate and churn

If one can estimate that the value of an investment portfolio will grow at $g$% per annum, and can estimate that approximately $c$% of that portfolio will be churned each year (sold and reinvested), ...
3
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0answers
84 views

Which areas of statistical physics do not get enough attention in quantitative finance?

It seems that over the past few decades many ideas from statistical physics have been successfully incorporated into economics and finance to form the sub-discipline of econophysics. However, it is ...
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1answer
79 views

Why futures pricing not calculated like options?

I have read about futures and options ( from online resources ). I only have the basic understanding,not math heavy ( for eg. for Black Scholes I know only the intuitive idea from the khan academy ...
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3answers
74 views

Filling a few missing data in time series?

I'm writing a paper about Uncertainty indices like VIX, etc. I already collected all data but it seems that some of the variables got a few or a little more missing data. I have daily and monthly data ...
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2answers
96 views

Measuring correlation between random variables when they are not normally distributed?

I want to perform some analysis on portfolio that consists of hedge funds (thus fund of hedge funds) In particular, I want to know the relationship between the funds during the downmarket. The ...
3
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1answer
204 views

How to have an unbiased estimation of the standard deviation when using rolling returns?

I want to estimate the weekly standard deviation of a lognormal process in a usual setup. $$ \frac{dS}{S} = (\dots) dt + \sigma dW $$ where $\sigma$ is a constant and $W$ a brownian motion. The ...
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0answers
40 views

Statistical tests for moving averages

What are methods and approaches used in the field to tests the significance of a moving average over a specific time frame i.e: slope difference between the trend line and the price action? Would one ...
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0answers
41 views

Testing performance persistence [replicating method from academic paper]

I would like to replicate a method of performance persistence to basically see how my data differs Do., Faff R., Veeraraghavanc M. (2010) "Performance persistence in hedge funds: Australian evidence"...
0
votes
1answer
90 views

beginner portfolio statistics - annualized volatility of multi-asset portfolio

Sorry for the dumb question, but I wanted to make sure my understanding of what I read and compiled was correct! I am trying to calculate the variance-covariance matrix, and annualized volatility of a ...
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0answers
32 views

Evaluate model performance across all stocks

Suppose I have a lm model that captures per-stock level alpha. Therefore, I fit this model using all historical data stock by stock. My question is that how to combine all individual models’ ...
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0answers
22 views

Identifying primary share class of U.S. firms and deleting excess observations

I have a fairly large dataset of CRSP firms with their daily closing prices from 2006 till 2017. I need to filter the data so that I have one daily observation per unique firm. I've identified the ...
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0answers
58 views

Statistical methods to compare two financial series data

I have two financial series data, x and x', where x' was formed form ...
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0answers
36 views

Joint hypothesis tests

When running regressions, $$Y_t=\alpha+\beta_{9}x_{9,t-1}+\beta_2x_{2,t-1}+\beta_3x_{3,t-1}+\beta_4x_{4,t-1}+\varepsilon_t (1)$$ $$Y_t=\alpha+\beta_1x_{1,t-1}+\beta_2x_{2,t-1}+\beta_3x_{3,t-1}+\...
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0answers
20 views

Isolating the portion of the market indexes' returns that are independent of the other market indexes

I am trying to find a way to isolate the portion of the market indexes' returns that are independent of the other market indexes. My dataset comprises of 10 sectors (Technology, Financials, Utilities, ...
2
votes
1answer
30 views

Deriving the long-horizon predictive regression and hypothesis testing

I am working on the long-horizon regression, $$y_{t,K}=\mu+\beta_1x_{1,t-1}+...+\beta_nx_{n,t-1}+e_{t} $$, where $$y_{t,K}=y_{t}+y_{t+1}+...+y_{t+K-1}$$ and there can be multiple x's. So I am ...
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0answers
91 views

Implementing Hanson`s LMSR with Limit Orderbooks

I am trying to integrate Hanson's LMSR (see (see logarithmic market scoring rule)into an order-book with traditional bid/ask-limit orders (in KDB+/Q). The following functions define the basic LMSR ...
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0answers
41 views

Correlation between a sector and MSCI ACWI returns

I have daily return data of 11 sectors of MSCI World Index and the MSCI ACWI index. I want to know the stationarity of correlations between the sectors and MSCI ACWI index. This is what I have done: ...
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0answers
21 views

Informal definition of the almost complete convergence

I'm searching for the informal definition of the almost complete convergence (P. L. Hsu and H. Robbins (1947), Dugué (1955)), which means a definition without any mathematics formula. Thank you for ...
3
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2answers
222 views

Filtering smallest eigenvalues

In Risk Budgeting and Diversification Based on Optimized Uncorrelated Factors [1], which introduces minimum torsion bets, Meucci gives an example involving the computation of covariance matrices on ...
-4
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1answer
94 views

For a trading strategy how many trades have to occur for statistical significance [closed]

I created a strategy using a regression on a price series. I tested it with many walk-forward analyses and it has passed. I am currently live trading it with real capital (the ultimate test). My ...
0
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0answers
29 views

Negative abnormal stock return and permanent impact

Assume we have a day where stock price falls many standard deviations of the mean (e.g >3) . How could we test, in terms of time-series, if this negative shock is permanent or deminishes in the long ...
1
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2answers
75 views

Calculating implied volatility from moneyness/volatility values for date

For an option expiring at a particular date I have Moneyness 0.4,0.7,0.85,0.95,1,1.05,1.15,1.3,2.5 Vol 0.105,0.075,0.045,0.045,0.202,0.045,0.045,0.075,0.085 ...
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0answers
34 views

Trading rules: Controlling the portfolio FDR+ level

I'm trying to apply the FDR+ (False Discovery Rate +) methodology from Bajgrowicz (2011) link another_link. I have computed the p-values with the stationary bootstrap as they did, however I am not ...
1
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0answers
31 views

Bootstrapping to Judge the Fit of a Sampled Return Distribution

Consider the following: I have sampled yearly stock returns from a specified distribution. What I want to do is compare how well my sampled distribution fits the empirical distribution of yearly ...
1
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0answers
25 views

Uniqueness of data metric [closed]

Is there a metric that calculates "uniqueness of data"? For example if i have two sets of 200 observations, DataSet 1 has 70 unique values but 4 values take up the next 130 observations. DataSet 2 ...
1
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1answer
65 views

Would you consider yield a stationary or non-stationary process?

Doing some yield curve forecasting and unsure whether should be working with yield or change of yield.
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0answers
67 views

What are good papers on order book dynamics?

I want to simulate a limit order book. For this I want a statistical model to model arrival of orders in the exchange. I would be thankful if anyone can point me in direction of relevant literature.
1
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1answer
79 views

Average Return Differential Calculation - Newey West t-Statistic

I am reading Table II on page 28 in Bali et al. (2007), Value at Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns: Please can anyone explain the calculation of t-statistic and Newey West t-statistic ...
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0answers
47 views

MAU YoY Growth Rate to understand momentum

What's the best way to see a company's growth momentum? With the expectation that there's usually momentum that carries through to the next year (for example, they launched a product that will bear ...
-1
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3answers
285 views

Differentiate a good from a bad bid-ask spread

Is it possible to weight the bid-ask spread? I'll explain ... In the moment, for a share X, to trade I use the price, volume, $ volume, # trades, % chg and the bid-ask spread (BAS). To make day ...
0
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1answer
155 views

conditional probability of default

I would like to ask the following question. I would appreciate if someone could help me out. On what argument is based that states that conditional default rates ( loans of corporate borrowers) ...
1
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0answers
33 views

When constructing a cointegrating series, does choosing the linear regression with the lowest ADF test statistic yield the optimal hedging ratio?

Multiple sources say that you should find the optimal hedging ratio between two stocks in a pairs trade by conducting 2 linear regressions (with each stock as the independent variable), and using ...
10
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3answers
2k views

How did James Simons clinch that security prices didn't look random?

Source: D. T. Max. Jim Simons, the Numbers King. December 18 & 25, 2017 Issue [...] In the late seventies, not long after he won the Veblen Prize, Simons founded a small investment firm in an ...
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3answers
241 views

log return of sp500. Stationary vs strictly stationary

By first glance of this time series; will you say it is stationary? I can easily see some "seasonality" which means that this is not strictly stationary since the distribution will not be the same; ...
3
votes
1answer
165 views

Can portfolio Value-at-Risk be calculated analytically for multivariate t-distributed returns?

It is widely known that VaR is generally not sub-additive in all but the most restrictive cases (typically when a Gaussian return distribution is assumed, which fails when it matters the most). ...
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0answers
38 views

Equation for the conditional mean

I'm a bit confused about the condition/unconditional model. I aware of how to calculate it with given numbers, and that the name conditional itself explains, that something can influence the result of ...
0
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1answer
71 views

When predicting Forex price using HMM what, typically, are the states and what are the observations?

I understand their abstract definition but having trouble applying the HMM method to Forex prices. What should the observations be? Then what should the states be (like "hot", "cold", etc.)?
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1answer
47 views

How to solve endogeneity between capital expenditure and Tobin's q without using instrumental variables?

Currently, I am analyzing capital expenditure of takeover-targets in the year prior to the takeover. The dependent variable is capital expenditure and one of the explanatory variables is Tobin's q. ...
4
votes
1answer
169 views

R Calculate future price range and plot the result

First I want to say that I've read this post (How to calculate future distribution of price using volatility?) but it doesn't help much. Here is what I'm trying to do (values are not real) Let's ...
2
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2answers
2k views

Principal Component Analysis of yield curve change

Following pictures are the Principal Component Analysis for the yield curve change from https://www.coursera.org/learn/interest-rate-models/lecture/ZHMM6/principal-...
3
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1answer
196 views

p-value of Sharpe Ratio Differences

I am trying to understand what was done in this study by Research Affiliates on the small cap anomaly. Looking at Table 1, how are the authors actually calculating the p-value? I have read that the ...
1
vote
1answer
54 views

which method is the roubust method to estimate the Hurst parameter?

I know there exist lots of method to estimate the Hurst parameter, such as R/S, V/S, GHE, DFA, DMA, Wavelet Spectral Density, Whittle and so on. Can you tell me which one is the best one. Is anyone ...
1
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1answer
209 views

Predict the behavior of a time series (P&L trading desk)

I work at the trading desk P&L department at a large bank. The trading desk has positions in almost all sorts of derivatives (options, futures) over a long list of stocks, currencies, commodities.....