# Questions tagged [statistics]

The study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. Questions may deal with descriptive statistics, probability distributions, random variables, sampling, regression, density estimation, filtering, inference, estimation theory, or computational statistics.

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16 views

### Backtesting conditional VaR

I'm writing a thesis about conditional VaR of Standard & Poor's 500 index. I have fitted my log-returns with GARCH(1,1)-proces and then made some conditional VaR-forecast (500 observations) with ...
63 views

### What's the difference between Statistics and Econometrics?

I can't really grasp the similarities and differences between Statistics and Econometrics. Is Econometrics includes every Statistical models inside it? or is there areas of Statistics outside of the ...
42 views

### Are intraday volatility estimators useful for close-to-close predictions

I am interested in predicting the PnL of a gamma scalping strategy which trades only once per day. For simplicity, let's say we can always trade at the daily close. So, what I need to predict are the ...
26 views

### Understanding output from Johansen Cointegration test

I have a VECM model that Im using to determine the revenues for a firm, based on factors like Interest rates, S&P 500 and company specific variables, as follows: Stage 1: $$z_t= a+ bX_t+e_t$$ ...
11 views

### A bounded random variable is sub-Gaussian, thus financial returns are not bounded?

Bounded random variables are sub-Gaussian, yet I, intuitively, assume financial returns are bounded random variables; however, they are not sub-Gaussian. Am I wrong to assume financial returns are ...
65 views

### Determining Value at Risk of a Poisson distribution

If my discrete random variable had a poisson distribution with both moments say equal to 10, how can I find the Value at Risk for a 95 percent confidence interval? I have seen that I need to ...
70 views

### Why doesn't the first principal component maximize the standard deviation of returns

I am trying to apply PCA to portfolio of securities. My understanding is that the first principal component can be used to evaluate weights for portfolio of maximum variance and each next principal ...
31 views

### What should basic statistical analysis of different price forecasts contain

we have set of historical data of different price forecasts and the real prices. When assessing "which forecasts are best", what parts of the analysis should one never miss out? We are at a very ...
56 views

### What's the meaning of linearity in classical statistics in Prado's book?

I am reading Prado's new book, Machine Learning for Asset Managers. In the page1 of his book, there is this sentence. To a greater extent than other mathematical disciplines, statistics is a ...
21 views

### Performance attribution of indices to their sector weights

Is it possible to attribute performance of indices (monthly returns and risk measures - Sharpe ratio, etc.) to their sector weights (if I know them)? Example: I know the monthly performance of ...
42 views

### Hurst Exponent and fractional differencing

I have a quick question. Currently I study daily OHLCVs of some stocks and find that many of them have the Hurst exponent not being equal to 0.5. I know that if it is less than 0.5 then it is a mean ...
56 views

### Predicting time series based on another

This is more of a generic question, but I'm sure it has a best answer/methodology which is what I'm trying to reach. I'm trying to figure out a solid line of thought when looking at a time series X ...
36 views

### Optimal Cash Deployment in a Bear Market

Assume: You can't time the market bottom You have a finite amount of cash to buy equities There are P dip/bear periods you're gonna purchase the equity 2 Problems: You deploy too much cash early, ...
82 views

### Can someone prove (or disprove) this assertion about the normal distribution? [closed]

Let $X$ be distributed as a $Normal (\mu, \sigma^2)$. Then for a fixed $\mu$ it is always the case that: \begin{equation} \frac{90th quantile-10th quantile}{\sigma}=constant \quad \forall \sigma>0 ...
52 views

### Why combining market share behaviours brings a different conclusion

Please check the following dummy example to explain the paradox. Both areas in the company keep the same market share during the years, but at the end company lost share in the market! Math is 100% ...
19 views

### Sample conditional multivariate random variable?

There's multivariate random variable, future prices of assets, 5 years from now: $$X = [Gold, Silver, SP500]$$ There's historical prices for $X$ available for last 50 years. It's possible to fit ...
25 views

### Unbalanced Panel Data in Excel and Stata

We have unbalanced panel data (columns for date and firm identifier as well as other variables) that is heavily unbalanced involving several thousand firms. We would like to turn it into what ...
201 views

### Forecasting Volatility using GARCH in Python - Arch Package

Disclaimer: Posted this on stackoverflow, but maybe here should be the right place to ask something about GARCH I'm testing ARCH package to forecast the Variance (Standard Deviation) of two series ...
128 views

### Two Probability Questions from Quantitative Finance Interview Book

I posted the two questions in math stack exchange one month ago but cannot get an answer, so I post it here and appreciate your advice:) I'm reading an interview book called A Practical Guide to ...
85 views

### how to I get the statistical significance of a backtested result

If I have a simple long/short value strategy (say long stocks with high e/p and short stocks low e/p or any other parameter) rebalanced monthly, and a look back window of say 15 years. How do I ...
56 views

### Why is SPY daily adjusted close negatively autocorrelated?

I took daily adjusted close prices (all history) from Yahoo Finance and ran the following code: ...
25 views

### Interpretation of $\alpha$ (confidence level) in mean CVaR optimization

How are an investors risk preferences related to $\alpha \in (0,1)$ in a mean CVaR optimization? Would a risk averse investor choose a higher value of $\alpha$, and if so why? My understanding is, ...
68 views

### Fama-Macbeth Regression: Weird Risk Premia

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth regression where in the first step I calculated a time-series regression for each individual stock to get three betas (for mkt-rf, smb, hml) for each stock. Then I ran ...
101 views

### How to get know when CUSIP is changed

CUSIP code is not a constant, it could be changed. Does anybody know how to detect a CUSIP change? Is there any report with this info? Where can i find it? Thank you.
55 views

### Old codes for Companies (CUSIP/ISIN/SEDOL)

I found that for example ISIN have following rules: Merger and acquisition: Old ISINs for stock become inactive and are replaced by securities with a new ISIN. Bonds only need new ISINs if old ones ...
33 views

### Asset prices Boom,Bust and Recovery cycles

Is there any systematic way to detect the Boom, bust and Recovery cycles in Asset Prices ? Are there any good references about the Topic ? Thanks in advance.
58 views

### What does a regression of squared returns of stock on squared index returns and lags show?

We have a squared stock return at t regressed on 3 variables: squared index return, squared stock return at t-1, and squared index return at t-1. My two questions would be: 1. What does this test ...
61 views

### Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data

I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question. My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
28 views

### Average of R squared correct/allowed/useful?

I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth analysis to estimate the risk premia of Fama/French. In short, I estimated the betas on a company-individual basis first and then conducted a cross-section regression ...
50 views

### How to calculate R for strategies with dynamic exit points

Calculating risk-reward ratio R is easy when trading a straight forward strategy which has its entry and exit points clear: ...
34 views

### Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH

I am looking for R function for modelling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH. I found package MSGARCH but that package can not accommodate mean model. Do you have an idea for my case?
64 views

I am trying to solve the following problem: 'An insurance company has an initial surplus of 150 and premium loading factor of 15%. Assume that claims arrive according to a compound Poisson process $(... 1answer 129 views ### Fama/Macbeth Regression - negative estimate for market premium I just conducted a Fama-Macbeth regression to estimate the risk premia of Mkt-Rf, HML and SMB. As a result, I got a negative risk premium for Mkt-Rf which makes no sense in my opinion. As I couldn't ... 0answers 64 views ### Why is R^2 negative on random data? [closed] The introductory book says R^2 is between 0 and 1, but I have two randomly generated sequences and the R^2 is negative. So I read further and now understand the negative value is because R^2 ... 1answer 65 views ### 0.0006 r-squared after trying to test whether the intercepts differ significantly. Did I do it wrong? I am trying to test if the intercepts of two linear regression (CAPM) differ significantly or not. I have 2 fund's monthly return in the same period and regress them on the same market variable (MKT = ... 0answers 41 views ### Correlation coefficient without cash flows? I'm an intern at a company and one of our tasks is to calculate the the probability of default of both participants of a Swap(a Client and a Bank), for which we first need the correlation coefficient ... 0answers 54 views ### William K. Bertram's sharpe formula checking I have some issues to verify by simulation the formulas in the paper of William K. Bertram "Analytic solutions for optimal statistical arbitrage trading". first, the reversion parameter alpha=180 in ... 0answers 29 views ### Estimator for Conditional value at risk (average value at risk) I am following a book: Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization by Svetlozar T. Rachev, Stoyan V. Stoyanov, Frank J. Fabozzi I'm learning about average value at risk. ... 1answer 70 views ### Adjust calculation of Sharpe ratio when portfolio is subjected to cash outflows I have a portfolio with cash and marketable securities, a benchmark, and a desire to calculate its Sharpe ratio. However, this portfolio has cash outflows. Sometimes securities are sold to produce the ... 0answers 28 views ### Which technique determines if var x1 leads var y? Assuming var x1 may need to be transformed Suppose I want to predict future changes in variable y (stock price over time). I notice that variable x1, inverted and delayed three months, tends to lead y. Which technique can I use to find other ... 2answers 88 views ### Do we need to assume underlying returns are normal in BSM model, given Central Limit Theorem? I am trying to get a better understanding of Central Limit Theorem and how it can be used in life and in finance. From what I have read, the BSM model assumes the underlying asset's simple returns ... 1answer 90 views ### Jensen’s Inequality for returns on short positions this is puzzling me. Say you have an asset A, that on day t+1 returns 1%, and then on day t+2 returns 1% again. If you invest$1 in A on day t (take a long position), then on day t+2 you have earned:...
468 views

I have a question regarding this particular post on quantstart: https://www.quantstart.com/articles/ARIMA-GARCH-Trading-Strategy-on-the-SP500-Stock-Market-Index-Using-R In it, he designs a day-...
89 views

### How to determine expected returns of an options portfolio?

Lets say I have a delta neutral portfolio, iron condors on spy for example. I'm short a call credit spread and a put credit credit spread of equal widths. I would like to determine the expected ...
195 views

### Barra model: why standardize the fundamental risk factors?

The two main types of risk factors included in the famous Barra model are called the "fundamental factors", and "industry factors," and the thing that I do not understand is why are only the former ...
175 views

### How to normalize stock exchange indexes

I am doing an academic research in behavioral finance and I need to calculate my abnormal return based on the normalized returns of the stock exchange index being the S&P 500. In other words, I ...
94 views

### Modeling mortgage loan defaults

I have a machine learning model trained with a list of mortgage features that include macro variables where the field to predict (the label) is "Mortgage Defaulted" = 1 or 0 (Yes or No). Now, I need ...
151 views

### How can stationary time series data be used as input in an ML model?

I am halfway through "Advances in Financial Machine Learning" by Marcos Lopez de Prado. I understand that a time series like stock prices can be transformed to make it sufficiently stationary. ...