Questions tagged [strategy]

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44
votes
9answers
8k views

How 'High' is the frequency in HFT?

How many trades per second are we talking about? What kind of strategies are used in this time frame? Can the small guy play the game?
36
votes
6answers
6k views

What are the popular methodologies to minimize data snooping?

Are there common procedures prior or posterior backtesting to ensure that a quantitative trading strategy has real predictive power and is not just one of the thing that has worked in the past by pure ...
24
votes
10answers
55k views

Strategy of Renaissance Technologies Medallion fund: Holy Grail or next Madoff?

Renaissance Technologies Medallion fund is one of the most successful hedge funds - ever! Yet it is very secretive. Do you have information on the strategy used that is not yet mentioned in the ...
20
votes
8answers
2k views

Why is there no “meta-model”?

If I design a trading model, I might want to know the model's half life. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible to predict alpha longevity without a meta-model of the market. Intuitively, such a meta-...
20
votes
4answers
8k views

Is there any good research on support and resistance?

Could somebody advise me on where to find good literature on the justification or motivation for using support and resistance lines - and also lines of maximums and minimums. In finance, it is ...
14
votes
3answers
4k views

Categories of systematic trading strategies?

What are the main categories of systematic trading strategies (e.g. momentum, mean reversion), as might be considered by an index or fund-of-fund analyst? Are there any common sub-strategies?
14
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the Sugihara Trading System?

I recently heard the term Sugihara Trading System. I guess it might be some trading strategy or a special model to predict trends in market data, but I couldn't find out anything about it. Does anyone ...
11
votes
1answer
521 views

How to select/construct benchmarks for black-box trading strategies?

When faced with a black box trading strategy with extensive historical data available, how would one select/construct a representative benchmark? As a trivial example, when a strategy historically ...
9
votes
1answer
3k views

Mean reverting strategies

I would like to take advantage of a volatile market by selling highs and buying lows. As we all know the RSI indicator is very bad and I want to create a superior strategy for this purpose. I have ...
8
votes
1answer
340 views

Why not just be long VIX and wait for the next volatile period?

Over the past 3 months, VIX has been relatively low. Therefore, there seems to be a "free-lunch" here by just being long VIX, and wait for the next market turmoil (which is happening at the moment ...
8
votes
2answers
711 views

What quant terms to use to search for papers about “stop-hunting” trading strategies?

Are there any papers about possible trading strategies you can apply when you know where a large cluster of orders is located in the order-book? These seem to fall in the liquidity-provisioning/...
8
votes
0answers
356 views

Market Maker portfolio management

I am interested in articles/strategies related to portfolio and inventory management for market makers and to management of order cancellation, updates of order, etc. Most of the strategies from ...
7
votes
1answer
494 views

What is the optimal strategy when there is an equal chance for gain or loss but the size of the potential gain is larger?

I'm investigating a situation where the chance for gain or loss is the same, but the amount gained is greater than the amount that is lost. For example, the gain would be about 30% of the trade ...
7
votes
4answers
346 views

Shorting an option every day vs shorting only at maturity

Suppose we have 2 strategies : strategy A : every $N$ days, we short a call option with a time-to-maturity of $N$ days; strategy B : every day, we short $\frac{1}{N}$ of a call option with a time-to-...
6
votes
3answers
341 views

Is there a way to figure out “hot” strategies?

Apparently, short vol strategies have gotten crowded, according to the recent Bloomberg piece. When I read this, I thought how about factor based strategies -- value, growth, etc.? Aren't they ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

Why should a self-financing strategy be previsible?

There is an amazing answer on mathematics stackexchange which defines what a self-financing strategy is—both in the discrete and continuous sense. Please check out this short answer to better ...
6
votes
1answer
1k views

How to choose a rolling window type and size?

I'm developing a trading strategy which takes into account certain parameters (e.g. avg spread, weighted price, etc). Of course, these parameters can be calculated over different window types (i.e. ...
6
votes
1answer
224 views

Strategy for implied volatility

I encountered this question: "A trader observed that the implied vol of OTM calls and puts are higher than that of ATM option, what is the best strategy among: Calendar Spread, Bull Spread, Bear ...
6
votes
1answer
809 views

What research is available on the performance of convertible bond arbitrage models?

The basic principles of convertible bond arbitrage have been clear at least since Thorp and Kassouf (1967). For those who are not familiar, the arbitrage entails purchasing a convertible bond and ...
5
votes
3answers
892 views

Is linear programming important for quant?

I'm thinking about taking a course on Linear and Convex Programming, but I don't know how useful it is in the real world finance. Which areas in finance is mathematical programming used?
4
votes
5answers
7k views

Appropriate method for calculating negative returns on a trading strategy?

I have a cumulative profit/loss time series below for a trading strategy, what is the appropriate way to calculate the returns in percentage for such a series? My issue is the appropriate ...
4
votes
3answers
375 views

Basics of trading strategy development

I am Computer engineer and I know programming in python, go-lang, C++, I am interested in trading, I know how to make system to get data, send orders, back-test, fault-tolerance system, etc I have ...
4
votes
4answers
4k views

Writing an Options Strategy Backtester

I've been doing some digging, and this question has been asked many times in various forms over the years - Backtesting Options Strategies in R Are there any good tools for backtesting options ...
4
votes
3answers
261 views

Multi-asset class allocation

How to allocate asset classes in a multi-asset portfolio? An institutional client needs to meet his pension liabilities, and suggested a multi-asset-class strategy. I'm trying to find ideas to pitch. ...
4
votes
1answer
388 views

How to compute daily compounded backtest returns closer to real-world results?

I often run quick tests of trading strategies in my analytics suites by: multiplying a vector of signal (lagged, {-1,0,1}) with a time series of daily percentage returns doing a cumulative product of ...
4
votes
0answers
209 views

Trading signal strength: [-1 to 1] or [predicted return]?

In the context of a backtesting engine, is it better to have strategy generate trade signals in the range from -1 to 1 or as exact predicted returns (e.g. -12% or 26%). The difference lies in how to ...
3
votes
1answer
626 views

What's the rationale behind having several orders on each each side for market makers

I've been browsing market making codebases and I've noticed most of them tend to create multiple orders on each side. Originally I thought having orders on each side is an advanced approach but here'...
3
votes
2answers
697 views

Backtrader doesn't display time when backtesting

I am trying to backtest a strategy with Backtrader (not the first time) and have a problem while printing date & time for each iteration (time stay on 23:59:59). Here are the first lines of my ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

basic stock trading strategies [closed]

What are some trading strategies for stocks (just stocks, no derivatives) using freely available online data sources?
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Pre-trade evaluation and risk assessment of option trading strategies (in market practice)

When a trader gets conclusion of the volatility is being underestimated (via volatility cone or some other technology), actually there are multiple ways for his trading. (Let's assume the underlying ...
3
votes
1answer
535 views

Option Strategy: Python Implementation Advice

I've been tasked to create and backtest an option strategy. The strategy, in vague terms, is to essentially write call options on securities in a universe, i.e., selling insurance. I have an idea of ...
3
votes
0answers
97 views

Backtesting: what happens to real-executed order if mine fills instead?

I'm writing a backtester and using an order-by-order Nasdaq ITCH feed whilst testing it. Let's say the bid-ask spread is 100 @ 9-11 @ 100 My strategy inserts an bid order for 100 @ 10 and this ...
2
votes
4answers
554 views

Proof that the number of trades done (successfully) matters for whether or not a strategy was lucky

Me and a friend is trying to settle and argument in relation to the following quote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: I don’t want to spend too much time on Buffett. George Soros has 2 million times more ...
2
votes
4answers
439 views

Where to get historical equity data?

I have a decade of experience as a software engineer, but little quantitative finance knowledge. I have an idea for a simple trading strategy based around moving averages. In order to test it, I'd ...
2
votes
2answers
198 views

Why Good forecasting != Good trading? [closed]

In AI for algorithmic trading: 7 mistakes that could make me broke the author talks about why good forecasting cannot equal good trading based on the strategy selected. While reading the article I ...
2
votes
1answer
341 views

Why there is a Deviation on my RSI indicator in comparison from one of the other Trading Markets

Hello all, and sorry for this stupid question. I am using my custom RSI indicator to which I created programmatically. I follow the equation type from here. My problem is when I compare it with the ...
2
votes
1answer
102 views

Rigorous proof that volatility target strategies actually tend to the target

I'm working on a paper about volatility timing and target strategies, practical implementation included. While writing down the mathematical description of the model I wanted to include a rigorous ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Divergent or Convergent Strategies? Which is the way to go?

Consider first the simple convergent strategy to invest some amount $X$ in a game, if you win you simply take the winnings and keep playing a subsequent game. In the case of a loss, you believe in ...
2
votes
2answers
130 views

If price is a random walk, is ok to use the binomial distribution to estimate a trading strategy?

Is it OK to assume a trading strategy should have a binomial distribution if the price is just a random walk? using p of the event as: $$\frac{AverageStopLossPercent}{AverageStopLossPercent + ...
2
votes
1answer
2k views

Calculate Returns of Momentum Strategy (Overlapping Portfolios - Jegadeesh and Titman 1993)

I want to implement a Momentum Strategy, followed by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) with overlapping Portfolios. I want to duplicate their results. Quick Link to the paper (Unfortunately the Method is ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

How to evaluate a success rate of a trading strategy

In order to compare various trading strategies, I am trying to calculate the success rate (the ratio of winning and losing trades). While it is clear to me that this indicator is far from being an ...
2
votes
1answer
127 views

Can alpha be positive if cumulative returns underperform the benchmark?

According to my portfolio analysis program (pyfolio), the alpha of the following strategy is .17 (I am assuming 17%). [Based on pyfolio documentation, alpha here is the "annualized alpha".] ...
2
votes
0answers
110 views

how to avoid building a strategy that depends on very long trends

When I construct a strategy, it is easy to make subtle dependencies on trends that have existed for a long time. Sometimes it is legit to explicitly take advantage of the trends. For example, it has ...
2
votes
0answers
57 views

How to ascertain/establish certainty of a portfolio rebalancing strategy?

I created a portfolio rebalancing strategy, that I am currently paper trading with. It is, primarily, based on mean-reversion principle with a few rules in place, and geared towards cryptocurrencies, ...
1
vote
1answer
143 views

Methods to improve systematic strategies

Soliciting advice on ways to improve systematic strategies. Some things that I can think of off the top of my head: Using a risk model (correlations) instead of 1/n or 1/vol weighting Including a ...
1
vote
1answer
109 views

Literature on credit risk premia

I am looking for a comprehensive ressource describing known strategies of credit risk premia. Is there such kind of articles/books/websites?
1
vote
2answers
76 views

Custom benchmark construction (S&P500 + add-on)

If I have a strategy that has the same risk as S&P500 but also requires 150 bps on top of S&P500 Index, how would I construct such a benchmark? I have the following approach, but it is not ...
1
vote
2answers
154 views

Strategy if dividend is lower than expected

Here is a question I encountered: In 2009, a trader believes that dividends for a stock in 2011 will be lower than expected, what is the best strategy among: long/short 2010 forward, long/short ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

Liquidity detection based strategy in HFT

This article contains the following statement. In terms of liquidity detection, traders intend to decipher whether there are large orders existing in a matching engine by sending out small ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

Cumulative returns are more correlated than non-cumulative

I was just comparing two daily returns series and noted that the correlation between them is a lot higher if they are cumulated (about .95 for cumulative returns, vs .15 for non-cumulative). I feel ...