Questions tagged [term-structure]

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11
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1answer
487 views

Distribution of hitting time of the integrated CIR process

If an increasing process $X_t$ has a known Laplace transform $\mathbb{E} e^{-s X_t} = m_t(s)$, define its hitting time $\tau$ to some level $B$ to be $$ \tau = \inf\{ u > 0 : X_u \geq B \}. $$ Can ...
4
votes
1answer
135 views

No-arbitrage in term-structure models

I am a bit confused about what the implication of "no-arbitrage" in popular term struchture models (such as affine term struchtre models or HJM models) are? Is it solely a restriction on the cross-...
3
votes
0answers
130 views

Correct form for State Space Equation for Kalman Filter for DNS

In this paper: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/papers/paper55/DRAfinal.pdf in eqns 3,5 the state eqn has the mean removed. $(z_t-\mu)=A(z_{t-1}-\mu) + \epsilon_t$ $y_t=C z_t + \delta_t$ ...
3
votes
0answers
203 views

Forecast biasness of VIX term structure

I'm interested in the topic of VIX futures being overpriced, so I'm looking for different models to find evidence for it. Asensio 2013 uses a regression to evaluate the forecast biasness of the VIX ...
2
votes
0answers
29 views

Discrete term structure models - generalized procedure to ensure positive probabilities across multiple measures

Question: Is there a generalized procedure for building a discrete (e.g. binomial) term structure model with risk-neutral branching probabilities that ensure positive probabilities under alternative ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Custom Frequency termstrc Package

Termstrc package in R by default uses yearly coupon frequencies. Dataset i am working with is semi-yearly coupon bonds. Here are the variables it takes into the model ...
1
vote
0answers
70 views

Physical trading spot transaction analysis-Quantified

ref to my previous question here: Physical commodity trading quantitative risk return model I am currently new to commodities and physical trading. I have currently narrowed down my area of analysis ...
1
vote
0answers
118 views

affine arbitrage free class of nelson siegel yield curve

I'm studying statistics for finance at university. Last week i read the working paper on "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models". I would like to reproduce in R ...
1
vote
0answers
217 views

State of Art - Nelson Siegel Modeling

My idea is to work with dynamic Nelson Siegel models(DNS) on my master's thesis. As I am finishing undergraduation this year I started researching on the subject. I wonder what is being discussed in ...
1
vote
0answers
104 views

Term Structure and short rates

If I have a term structure/yield curve given by: $$f(t, T) = f(0, T) + σ^2t(T − \frac{t}{2}) + σB_t $$ and want to find the short/spot rate $r_t$, is this simply: $$f(t,t) = f(0,t) + \sigma^2t(t-\...
0
votes
0answers
52 views

How is Kalman Filter used to estimate Term structure Models

I am implementing "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments" . This paper is using kalman filter to estimate the state and the mean variance and a parameters on ...
0
votes
0answers
65 views

Practical Skew Model For Equity Options?

I'm looking for a simple model I can use to calibrate equity implied volatility surface. There are several models published in the literature, and most of them seem far too sophisticated for my ...
0
votes
0answers
20 views

Termstrc data preparation from Bloomberg terminal

I am trying to use the R package termstrc to estimate yield curves for the Czech Republic. I have found the structure of the required class ...