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A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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1answer
22 views

How to calculate RSI while considering market close and holidays?

I was trying to calculate RSI over hourly OHLC bars for a symbol (AAPL as an example) and got stock, first how should I handle closing hours? (does it make sense to ignore them all together and assume ...
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0answers
37 views

Which method would you use to compare if a time series of financial returns has more “clusterized volatility” than another?

It is known that the historical series of financial returns are characterized by the so-called volatility clustering. Suppose we approximate the number of two-type clusters, namely the high and low ...
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0answers
31 views

Optimal time series length to calculate historical volatility

What length of time series is best to calculate the historical volatility of interest rates and why?
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0answers
14 views

Are ACF and PACF plots of squared returns useful in determining the lag-order when testing GARCH class of models?

I am trying to fit GARCH class of volatility models to the log return series of Bitcoin. ACF and PACF plots of the square of this return series are shown below. I need to know whether inferences can ...
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1answer
78 views

How to deal with missing value in a time series stock market data?

I have collected data for the period of 2002 to 2018 for following indices Nifty (India), NASDAQ (US), ADX (UAE) and TASI (Saudi Arabia). After collection, I have arranged data in a single sheet with ...
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1answer
58 views

What is the optimal approach to “backcasting” alternative asset classes (i.e. PE, Hedge Funds, Real Estate)?

I am interested in coming up with better risk calculations for alternative asset classes. As these are illiquid, not a lot of historical data is available. My idea is to use performance of stocks ...
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0answers
22 views

Finding the distribution and moments of returns with GARCH models (in R if possible)

I understand the GARCH type models and I know how to fit a model to a time series. But, there is a paper which calculates the moments of the distribution of returns (Variance, Skewness, and Kurtosis) ...
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2answers
29 views

Significance Of Missing Data for RMSE Estimation

I have a time series covering ten years of daily close prices, which I compare to a theoretical time series generated by a model. The original series has a handful of missing data points (~2%), some ...
0
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1answer
43 views

QQQ fillings history

I'm trying to find Invesco QQQ Trust fillings for 2001-2018 time period, at least top 10 by year, do you know where I should search?
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0answers
29 views

Joint hypothesis tests

When running regressions, $$Y_t=\alpha+\beta_{9}x_{9,t-1}+\beta_2x_{2,t-1}+\beta_3x_{3,t-1}+\beta_4x_{4,t-1}+\varepsilon_t (1)$$ $$Y_t=\alpha+\beta_1x_{1,t-1}+\beta_2x_{2,t-1}+\beta_3x_{3,t-1}+\...
2
votes
1answer
22 views

Deriving the long-horizon predictive regression and hypothesis testing

I am working on the long-horizon regression, $$y_{t,K}=\mu+\beta_1x_{1,t-1}+...+\beta_nx_{n,t-1}+e_{t} $$, where $$y_{t,K}=y_{t}+y_{t+1}+...+y_{t+K-1}$$ and there can be multiple x's. So I am ...
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0answers
36 views

What is a momentum portfolio? How can I create one?

What is a momentum portfolio? How can I create one? How can I test if momentum in one portfolio drives momentum in another portfolio. Any useful references.
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0answers
71 views

Simulation of a DCC-GARCH

I want to simulate some exchange rates with a DCC GARCH. I know the package rmgarch but I want to code the simulation my self. The following are the main equations ...
0
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0answers
50 views

Constrained Optimization for performance attribution

I am trying to perform constrained opmitization for portfolio performance attribution analysis. Specifically, I am trying to determine the impact of sectors performance on the S&P 500 index. Min ...
0
votes
1answer
38 views

EWMA Volatility vs Volatility of EWMA

Is taking the standard deviation of a EWMA smoothed series equivalent to getting the EWMA volatility for that series?
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0answers
53 views

Discretizing a Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Model

Forgive me for cross-posting. I have the following continuous time SDE for a stochastic volatility model. $S_t$ is the price, and $v_t$ is a variance process. $$ dS_t = \mu S_tdt + \sqrt{v_t}S_t dB_{...
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0answers
35 views

Correlation between a sector and MSCI ACWI returns

I have daily return data of 11 sectors of MSCI World Index and the MSCI ACWI index. I want to know the stationarity of correlations between the sectors and MSCI ACWI index. This is what I have done: ...
3
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1answer
138 views

Absorption ratio by Mark Kritzman

In Principal Components as a measure of systemic risk, the author Mark Kritzman defines absorption ratio (AR) as the fraction of the total variance of a set of asset returns explained or absorbed by a ...
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1answer
67 views

correlation in time series analysis

the goal of my research is to analyze if one variable X follows the movement of another variable Y over time. Meaning that Y is slightly ahead of X. The number of observations in each time series is ...
2
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0answers
55 views

volatility for multiple time series

I have time series data for a total of 4 stocks and want to analyze the volatility of those. Moreover I want to demonstrate that they have the same volatility. As a response variable I would use log ...
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0answers
28 views

Does it make sense to simulate from the multidimensional GBM?

Suppose I have times series data on 3 assets and I do $N$ simulations (GBM) first for each of assets individually and then from a multidimensional GBM since their log-returns are correlated (I use ...
3
votes
2answers
72 views

Lagged Residual as Independent Variable

I am building a factor model to estimate future equity returns. I'd like to include an autoregressive residual term in this model. I'd like to have yesterday's error (the difference between yesterday'...
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0answers
41 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of correlated returns based on different frequencies

I am simulating through Monte Carlo, multivariate correlated returns of different products composing an Oil&Gas portfolio. The historical prices (from which I computed the log-returns) of the ...
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0answers
25 views

Negative abnormal stock return and permanent impact

Assume we have a day where stock price falls many standard deviations of the mean (e.g >3) . How could we test, in terms of time-series, if this negative shock is permanent or deminishes in the long ...
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0answers
37 views

How to find the maximum clean price during lifetime of a bond

I'm trying to find a solution to following question: If I'm buying a bond and assume an upward sloping yield curve, than this bond will (under certain circumstances) experience price gains during his ...
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2answers
301 views

R: optimize timeseries to minimize “integral”

What I am looking to do is: for a given time-series $P_t$ (which will be constructed from different timeseries itself): $P_t$ = $\beta_1$$I_t^1$+$\beta_2$$I_t^2$+$\beta_3$$I_t^3$ $\qquad$ ($I_t^i$ ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Collect all stock returns in one single matrix using quantmod in R

My problem is similar to the one in this question: how do I loop through all the stocks with quantmod and ttr? To estimate the covariance matrix of stock returns, I need a $NxT$ matrix $X$ of returns ...
1
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1answer
29 views

Recreating / Extending Bond Time Series

I am trying to analyse historical yield curve dynamics within an across countries and step one is extending / recreating historical yields and/or prices. The challenge is this: lets say a 10 year ...
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0answers
52 views

What is the purpose of short rate models?

Just venturing into quantitative finance and studying short rate models (Vasicek, CIR, Hull-White etc.). Wanted to ask a very simple intuitive question. How would a practitioner use these models? I ...
0
votes
1answer
28 views

Drop weekend data Vs fill weekend data for GARCH-type modelling

I have a dilemma for an analysis I'm currently on. I doing some GARCH modelling of bitcoin and a fiat currency. There are some null values with the fiat datasets in comparison with bitcoin data as ...
4
votes
1answer
85 views

Hansen and Jagannathan distance

Hansen and Jagannathan distance, or HJ-distance for time-series regression of excess test assets return on excess factor return reads: $HJ = \sqrt{\alpha'(E[RR']^{-1})\alpha}$ However, I am little ...
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0answers
71 views

Which stats are the best predictors of model sucess in real time? [closed]

What are the best predictors of real time model success in quantitative trading, i.e. # of transactions, length of backtest, StdDev, Skewness, Excess Kurtosis etc and what are the numerical values of ...
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0answers
14 views

Transform the sd of slope into that of the corresponding elasticity - for impulse response function estimates

As the title implies, I want to transform the sd of slope into the sd of the corresponding elasticity, particularly, in the context of impulse response function in VAR model. Some background ...
1
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1answer
88 views

Asset class dynamics differences

If we compare daily return dynamics of the main asset class time series (e.g. Stock indexes, bonds, precious commodities, etc) do we observe quantifiable differences? Are there some reference paper on ...
1
vote
1answer
84 views

How to create a currency independent commodity index

I'm looking for insights on a methodology to create my own bespoke index, specifically a gold index. I'd like to take the price of gold in various currencies, along with the different cross rates ...
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0answers
303 views

Meyer Packard Algorithm and its implementation

I have been trying to programatically implement a type of genetic algorithm called the Meyer Packard algorithm and the resources tend to be cryptic in terms of describing the different components for ...
0
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2answers
85 views

What returns to use?

I have monthly returns of my portfolio... I would like to summarize the performance over a longer period in one overall figure. Should I use log returns per month then use geometric mean on the log ...
0
votes
1answer
51 views

Time Series Multiple Choice

1) Consider a standard AR(2) process. When is the maximum likelihood estimator identical to the OLS estimator? (a) when $\varepsilon $~ (N 0,$\Sigma^2) (b) always? I'm thinking (a), but that I also ...
0
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1answer
49 views

dividend paid on FTSE100 time series data

I need dividend paid on FTSE100 for last 10 years. I want to calculate the dividend-price ratio for FTSE100 as a time series data. I would really appreciate if anybody can give me a clue about finding ...
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1answer
92 views

Accuracy for GARCH models

How does one calculate the accuracy of forecasts given by GARCH models considering GARCH is run on returns. Assuming GARCH is a derivative of a regression based prediction model, would regular ...
1
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0answers
35 views

Dividing H in the Hurst power law function to get the Hurst exponent?

For my own learning I have been following the guide here. It is highly instructive. Implementing this in R I was able to reproduce the authors results on the data sets provided within some ...
1
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0answers
75 views

Yield curve estimaton using linear regression

Assuming that there are not any zero coupon bonds in the market, then someone has to use the prices of regular bonds with same maturity and characteristics (risk,issue etc.) to obtain the yield curve. ...
5
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0answers
106 views

Determining Hurst exponent of a Brownian motion

I am trying to determine the Hurst exponent of a simple Brownian motion, however, I seem to get a result that differs from 0.5. I am following the instructions given on the Wikipedia-page, and here is ...
0
votes
1answer
92 views

Is it possible to generate time&sales(tape) off of the tick data for a stock?

I want to build my own stock trading simulator with the ability to play it faster. ThinkorSwim has onDemand. But it's not fast enough to accumulate more experience. To code up my own market replay ...
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0answers
49 views

Regressing Implied Volatility on Historical Volatility - Should I regress using daily returns?

I am trying to scope out the main drivers of implied volatility from a series of different historical volatilities. The objective being to be able to make a fair estimate of implied volatility in ...
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0answers
81 views

What can cause autocorrelation in higher lag orders of returns?

I am fitting an AR(p) model to the daily time series of S&P500 returns. I have examined AIC/BIC up to 5 lags and both show that model with 2 lags is optimal. However, when I examine the residuals ...
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0answers
78 views

using database to scan trading signals as fast as possible

In stock market sometimes we search for certain "signals" such as stocks that raise for five consecutive days. In this scenario, we're not saying that the stock's price raises for every seconds in ...
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0answers
44 views

How to reduce “frequency” of statsmodels.api.tsa.MarkovRegression?

The essential problem I am facing right now is that the statsmodels.api.tsa.MarkovRegression, when used for Regime Change Detection, is reporting Bullish and Bearish Trends over a large period of ...
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3answers
200 views

log return of sp500. Stationary vs strictly stationary

By first glance of this time series; will you say it is stationary? I can easily see some "seasonality" which means that this is not strictly stationary since the distribution will not be the same; ...
1
vote
1answer
83 views

How can I 'quantize' a time-series in 'groups' exhibiting similar patterns? [closed]

In Signal processing, there is a topic of 'Quantization' (the process of mapping input values from a large set to output values in a (countable) smaller set ('states') ). I would like to construct a ...