# Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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### How to obtain one-step ahead forecast in Python based on GARCH?

I am trying to produce one-step ahead forecast using GARCH in Python using a fixed windows method. I ultimately want to put the code below in a for loop, but this code snippet does not perform as I ...
3k views

### How random are financial data series?

Pseudorandom number generators are often tested using e.g. a test suite like Diehard tests or Dieharder. If one would run these tests e.g. on stock market time series or other financial data, would ...
78 views

### How to implement rolling granger causality

I am investigating two time series where the first is the daily closing stock price changes and the other is the daily changes in the PCE index. I want to investigate how much the PCE index explains ...
1 vote
613 views

### Trouble Calibrating a Vasicek Model

I have simulated some data according to a Vasicek process and I am then trying to apply ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis to see how accurate the estimated model parameters are from the ...
57 views

### Regression taking in account size of earnings surprises

I'm trying to regress earnings surprises on variable x. However, absolute earnings surprises are mostly influenced by company total earnings and the number of shares outstanding. So I can't just use ...
47 views

### Reasons for negative autocorrelation of forward prices

I am working on each trade day's forward prices of gasoline. I noticed that the autocorrelation at lag 6 is significantly negative. I know how to interpret negative autocorrelation in a statistical ...
2k views

### Why quants think that the risk-neutral measure should not be used for financial forecasting?

In posts regarding the $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ debate (see 1, 2, 3 or 4), most answers conclude that historical-based forecast are better suited than risk-neutral models for financial predictions....
104 views

### Forecasting VIX with GARCH(1,1)

Aim: Forecast VIX using GARCH(1,1) Reason: I want to be able to forecast VIX on several horizons, in order to be able to forecast the SP500 index through linear regression. Tools used: Python, ...
159 views

### Estimating distribution of rate of return

Let $f[t]$ be the price of a stock at time $t$. We can calculate the rolling rate of return of the stock in a window of length $n$ by computing: $$r[t] = \frac{f[t] - f[t-n]}{f[t-n]}$$ $r[t]$ is ...
462 views

### Are there alternatives to the Box-Tiao decomposition in identifying mean reverting portfolios?

As documented in this paper, (Identifying Small Mean Reverting Portfolios, by Alexandre d’Aspremont, February 26, 2008) Box-Tiao decomposition (a way to decompose multiple time series into components ...
670 views

### Realized Variance (realized volatility)

I'm confused about realized variance. I roughly know the theory around Ito Calculus and quadratic variation and integrated volatility so I understand what realized variance measures (even though as ...
1 vote
75 views

### Application of Gramian Angular Field to financial series?

I found this method to represent time series to improve performance of some ML models, any thoughts about this method? some applications or use cases in financial markets?
254 views

### Daily realized volatility and true daily volatility

Can someone help if I am thinking correctly? If $R(t,i)$ is the i'th log-return for $i = 1\ldots,M$ of day $t$ for $t = 1\ldots,T$. Can I assume that the daily realized volatility (denoted $RV(t)$) is ...
1 vote
73 views

### Techniques for proxying time series / stock prices

What are some good techniques for proxying time series? My purpose is for risk management / modelling and I would like proxy to missing series. Given that I also have to account for volatility, ...
1 vote