# Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

520 questions
0answers
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### Brownian motion from price-series, what is the time step?

If I assume a given empirical price-series is a brownian motion, I can estimate the drift and standard deviation as long as I know what the time step was when the process was 'generated'. But since ...
1answer
44 views

### Forecasting a seasonal series with R

I am working with the program "R". I used the command "seas (X-13)" to deseasonalize my quarterly series, then I did the forecast with it. Therefore my forecast is in deseasonalized terms. Now, I was ...
1answer
586 views

### Up and Down days in GBPUSD and a Filter

I want to study if the odds of an up or down day in a forex pairs is 50-50. I just count the total number of up and down days in X years and compare it with the total days. The results are very ...
0answers
17 views

### Pricing a transfer option for oil

Need some input in how to attack this problem. Given are 8 timeseries: UK Oil price, Delivery Quarter 1 2020 UK Oil price, Delivery Quarter 2 2020 UK Oil price, Delivery Quarter 3 2020 UK Oil price, ...
3answers
204 views

### Reverse chronological time-series / inverse time-series

If a timeseries follows a BM, is it true that the inverse ts and reverse chronological ts is also a BM? What if the ts exhibits mean reversion tendencies? Would these tendencies become a momentum ...
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### Standard GARCH(1,1) model with external regressors

I have a queastion how does a standard GARCH(1,1) model with external regressors in mean and variance euqations look like ? I know that standard GARCH(1,1) model without external regressors has the ...
1answer
132 views

### Why does computing correlation between index levels vs. percentage changes yield completely different results?

I am examining the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Industrial Production Index. Computing the correlation between these these variables yield vastly different results if expressed in ...
3answers
181 views

### PCA for Risk bucketing

I'm working on a project to justify the use the certain tenors (2y, 5y, 10y, 30y) for risk bucketing. I'm a little stuck after calculating the principal components. Just to describe my approach- a) ...
1answer
86 views

### How to compute cumulative performance of a portfolio with two equities?

I have a time series of adjusted returns for two companies, A and B. I have created a portfolio consisting of these two time series with equal weighting (sum of weights must equal 1): $w_a = w_b=0.5$...
1answer
56 views

### Data Sources for Timestamps of Individual Trades [duplicate]

Are there any data sources where I can get the timestamps of individual trades/transactions? I'd like them to be at the second level or even the millisecond/nanosecond level. Ideally, the trades would ...
2answers
119 views

### Do you optimise models on bootstrapped time series?

As Quants, we soon learn to optimise models, by fitting them to historical time series, e.g. the historical daily returns of some stock. But the historical series of daily returns is just one ...
0answers
126 views

### What is the best source to get 10 milliseconds time-series data for numerical computation?

I am working with 4th order Runge-Kutta method to compute a second order differential equation. For the best accuracy, I need a 10 milliseconds ohlcv time-series data. I know that I can build it ...
1answer
72 views

### Calculate New Portfolio Weights Given Today's Returns

I'm looking for a formula to recalculate my portfolio's weights at the end of time $T$, given a vector of the asset weights at $T$ and a vector of returns at $T$. For example: ...
1answer
132 views

### How to perform cross-sectional asset pricing regression?

I'm wondering is that possible to get insignificant beta estimates in the time-series context, but highly significant risk premium associated with that beta in the cross-sectional regression? Any ...
0answers
90 views

### Detecting leading stocks using lag correlation

I am working on a project to find leading stocks in a stock market by using lag correlation. Say I want to compare 2 stocks, X and Y, and I have the time series of stock prices. Assume that the ...
0answers
30 views

### General to specific approach to modelling

I am trying to find the relationship of stock indices across the world. This has been done by the literature, however, I am wondering about the methods chosen. I have decided to go with what I think ...
4answers
931 views

### Why (most) quants think that the risk-neutral measure should not be used for financial forecasting?

In posts regarding the $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ debate (see 1, 2, 3 or 4), most answers seem to conclude that historical-based methods are better suited than risk-neutral models for financial ...
2answers
157 views

### remove seasonality in future contracts

very new to commodities. I have raw agriculture future data, and I need to remove the seasonality (de-seasonalize) from the data, what is the general approach ? Thanks for the help!
0answers
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### How does the FED calculate SAAR for GDP?

In looking at the Fed's GDP growth rate data, it looks like the fed uses a different calculation for calculating annualized growth rate than the typical annualized rate of change. Does anyone have any ...
1answer
62 views

### Monte Carlo simulations of stock price percentage change rather than stock price

Say we have a stock price time series $S_k$. We can do monte carlo simulations on the stock price to make predictions about future prices (e.g. through Geometric Brownian Motion SDE's). Does it make ...
1answer
346 views

### Application of ACD models

I have been playing around with autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models and I have a nicely working R based implementation using real high frequency data (trades only data). However, what's ...
0answers
118 views

### Rolling forecast using GARCH model

EDIT This is not a duplicate of my original question linked, since I have since overcome that problem and have posted an answer. Since solving the previous problem, I have run into the problem ...
0answers
251 views

### RiskMetrics VAR calculations and conditional distribution of sum of log returns

According to Tsay's book in Chapter 7, for the Risk Metrics model: A nice property of such a special random-walk IGARCH model is that the conditional distribution of a multiperiod return is ...
1answer
148 views

### Discretizing a Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Model

How does the discrete time stochastic volatility model arise from the continuous time one? Also, forgive me for cross-posting. I have the following continuous time SDE for a stochastic volatility ...