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Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

2
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0answers
159 views

RiskMetrics VAR calculations and conditional distribution of sum of log returns

According to Tsay's book in Chapter 7, for the Risk Metrics model: A nice property of such a special random-walk IGARCH model is that the conditional distribution of a multiperiod return is ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Do you optimise models on boostrapped time series?

As Quants, we soon learn to optimise models, by fitting them to historical time series, e.g. the historical daily returns of some stock. But the historical series of daily returns is just one ...
0
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0answers
42 views

Use of Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) in R for seasonality adjustment

When I decompose a time series using stl in R is the trend output simply the seasonally adjusted data that I can then use in my model? Or do I need to make further adjustments? Ultimately, I need to ...
1
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0answers
14 views

Volume or Dollar bars vs. volatility normalized and demeaned financial time series

In his book - Advances in Financial Machine Learning, Marcos Lopez de Prado familiarises the reader with a number of ways of normalizing our financial time series data. Below I provide a couple of ...
1
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3answers
171 views

Reverse chronological time-series / inverse time-series

If a timeseries follows a BM, is it true that the inverse ts and reverse chronological ts is also a BM? What if the ts exhibits mean reversion tendencies? Would these tendencies become a momentum ...
2
votes
1answer
118 views

Discretizing a Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Model

How does the discrete time stochastic volatility model arise from the continuous time one? Also, forgive me for cross-posting. I have the following continuous time SDE for a stochastic volatility ...
0
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1answer
31 views

Calculate New Portfolio Weights Given Today's Returns

I'm looking for a formula to recalculate my portfolio's weights at the end of time $T$ given a vector of the asset weights at $T$, and a vector of returns at $T$ For example: weights = 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 ...
19
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8answers
35k views

How to check if a timeseries is stationary?

I'm using KPSS Method to check if the series is stationary, but I would also like to use another test to confirm if the series is stationary or not, what method coudl I use?
1
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0answers
50 views

Poor results forecasting stock price volatility using Python's GARCH model

As far as I understand, forecasting stock price volatility should be more achievable than forecasting absolute prices or returns. It seems as though GARCH models are the traditional and most widely ...
0
votes
1answer
21 views

Auto-covariance function of station time series

How to show that for any stationary time series its auto-covariance function is symmetric about the origin, that is $\gamma_{k}=\gamma_{-k}$ where, $\gamma_k=cov(z_t,z_{t-k})$
2
votes
2answers
152 views

what are the criteria to select pairs?

I'm new to this forum, this is the first question I posted. I have many candidate pairs and I've used ADF test to make a first selection. There are more than 800 selected. The pairs are absolutely too ...
10
votes
1answer
2k views

ARMA+GARCH prediction with package rugarch (R)

I am analyzing FTSE 100 series, from 2007-01-01 to 2010-12-31 (university exam homework). I have to use the data 'til 2010-11-30 as sample, and the remaining (23) observations as in-sample forecast (...
7
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2answers
804 views

Fitting Copula and Simulation

I would greatly appreciate any insights into the problem described below, regarding using the data obtained from applying the functions of the rugarch package ...
1
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0answers
21 views

Johansen Cointegration Test in R

I know its probably been asked bevor but i just don't get it. I have 2 values (Oil and corn price) and i want to check if they are cointegrated. Bevor that, i have tested if they really are non ...
7
votes
1answer
284 views

Block bootstrap to synthesize asset prices

I have a few basic questions on block bootstrapping on a financial time series ('TS'). Assuming my trade universe consists of 10 stocks, I would like to create a set of synthetic prices for all 10 ...
5
votes
2answers
210 views

Does predictability in a VAR process imply mean reversion or momentum?

There seems to be some disagreement in the literature about this. Define predicability of a stationary series to be $\sigma^2_{t-1} / \sigma^2_t$ Finding mean reverting portfolios using canonical ...
10
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0answers
4k views

How to use statsmodels' Granger causality test to measure the lag between two time series?

I am using the Granger causality test to measure the lag between pairs of time series where it is already apparent that one is following the other. So I am not expecting this test to tell me whether ...
2
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1answer
201 views
4
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2answers
143 views

Lagged Residual as Independent Variable

I am building a factor model to estimate future equity returns. I'd like to include an autoregressive residual term in this model. I'd like to have yesterday's error (the difference between yesterday'...
8
votes
1answer
11k views

How to calculate the conditional variance of a time series?

I am reading a paper where the term conditional variance is mentioned, but I am not really sure what is meant by this and how this can be calculated: Fig. 2 shows the conditional variances of the ...
55
votes
8answers
23k views

Is R being replaced by Python at quant desks?

I know the title sounds a little extreme but I wonder whether R is phased out by a lot of quant desks at sell side banks as well as hedge funds in favor of Python. I get the impression that with ...
1
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0answers
21 views

Sample distribution of cross-sectional statistics of returns

Currently doing an application of VaR on sample of industry portfolios in the US. I have a matrix of $n$ industry portfolios with $m$ time-series observations. I calculate cross-sectionally (for each ...
-1
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1answer
39 views

Where can I download for free the entire price history of the nasdaq composite and s&p500 indices? [duplicate]

I would like the entire price history of both these indices at an end-of-day level, not intra day. Is there an R api that I can use for such an exercise?
0
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0answers
35 views

Interpreting the ACF graph

I am currently struggling with the interpretation of a price chart and the corresponding ACF graph. The question is, if there is momentum in the price of this asset. This is the corresponding price ...
2
votes
1answer
65 views

Asset pricing model factor need to be excess return?

In John Cochrane's Asset Pricing book and his video lecture, he states that asset pricing factors need to be excess returns, a traded portfolio. Is there a reason for that? I can't find explanation ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views

GARCH(1,1) and Value at Risk: Rolling window or non-overlapping samples

Currently studying on financial risk management. I want to test different methods of VaR estimation. I want to model volatility using a GARCH(1,1) model. My question is what should the size of the ...
4
votes
6answers
497 views

Book recommendation for time series analysis

I have been trying to wrap my head around Engel-Granger test and jcitest etc. I have failed thus far. If possible can someone guide me about which books to start with and possibly reach to ...
0
votes
2answers
59 views

Imputation of missing returns

I'm trying to calculate a historical VaR for a portfolio of futures, however there are certain days for which some assets are missing prices. Since the portfolio consists of many spread positions, the ...
19
votes
4answers
12k views

Performance of Open Source Time Series Database for Financial Market Data

We would like to store financial tick data in a database (potentially billions of rows) and then create aggregated (open-high-low-close) bar data from it (e.g. 1min or 5min bars). It was mentioned ...
-3
votes
2answers
81 views

How can currency (USD/TRY) be going up without having a candle before that would close under it?

I am having a hard time understanding how can USD/TRY be going up without having a period before that would close at a point under it. This is from today (2018-10-08 6:12 and 6:50). Is it moving up ...
0
votes
0answers
43 views

Market Invariant for Commodity Futures

In the same sense that Meucci describes "compounded returns" as the invariant for equities and "changes in yield-to-maturity" as the invariant for fixed-income, what is the invariant for a commodity ...
0
votes
2answers
62 views

Daily returns to monthly basic question [closed]

I am currently a little bit puzzled. I am trying to compute the monthly returns from a set of data. ...
1
vote
0answers
51 views

Cointegration between daily time series and intraday time series

I am working with time series data of daily prices, and intraday prices. For simplicity sake I will refer to the daily time series as 'A' and 'B', and the intraday time series of the same instruments ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

How long is considered `long-term'?

For a project I am doing I need to simulate the balance sheet of a pension fund. In order to do so I also need to simulate euro inflation. Since my inflation data is non-stationary, I model it using ...
2
votes
1answer
101 views

A question about stationarity and ergodicity

Given daily returns of a stock index over 50+ years, a homework question asks: Plot the annual sample mean and variances of the returns and their absolute values. Are these estimates in agreement ...
1
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0answers
71 views

Why does computing correlation between index levels vs. percentage changes yield completely different results?

I am examining the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Industrial Production Index. Computing the correlation between these these variables yield vastly different results if expressed in ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

suggestion for NDX volatility index prior to 2000

NDX index is available since 1984 in Bloomberg. There's VXN index that represents the implied volatility of NDX, which is available since 2001. I need some index or series that represents implied ...
11
votes
4answers
731 views

Why (most) quants think that the risk-neutral measure should not be used for financial forecasting?

In posts regarding the $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ debate (see 1, 2, 3 or 4), most answers seem to conclude that historical-based methods are better suited than risk-neutral models for financial ...
1
vote
1answer
137 views

What is the Probability Distribution of Max-Drawdown?

How to obtain the probability distribution of Maximum Drawdown, starting from the probability distribution of Daily Returns? Here the details: Suppose I have a time serie of N=1000 daily returns. ...
3
votes
0answers
74 views

Comparison of normalization methods on market returns

I am looking to use a multi-factor model to make target-return predictions. Since the factor-returns come from different scales I need to normalize first. There are different ways to normalize ...
1
vote
1answer
81 views

Understand the white noise condition in Vector Autoregression

In the following vector autoregression model with lag polynomial representation: $$\Phi (L) y_t= \epsilon_t$$ where $Y$ is the vector of endogenous variables, $\Phi$ is the parameters matrix, $\...
1
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0answers
29 views

Forecasting time series data using auxiliary information and associated questions

Suppose I want to forecast MSFT time series, using MSFT history as well as SPY history. Are there good time series forecasting methods that permit auxiliary data to be used? Perhaps you should just ...
1
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0answers
40 views

Overlapping Data

I have a daily time series data spanning over 22 years. I need to compute some meaningful yearly standard deviation statistics / generate probability distribution and estimate tail risk. 22 years ...
16
votes
5answers
43k views

How to fit ARMA+GARCH Model In R?

I am currently working on ARMA+GARCH model using R. I am looking out for example which explain step by step explanation for fitting this model in R. I have time series which is stationary and I am ...
0
votes
3answers
82 views

Filling a few missing data in time series?

I'm writing a paper about Uncertainty indices like VIX, etc. I already collected all data but it seems that some of the variables got a few or a little more missing data. I have daily and monthly data ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Getting data of sub-sector indexes of an S&P 500 index sector using QuantMod in R

Using the quantmod package in R, one can download the S&P500 index using the following command: ...
0
votes
1answer
89 views

Which method would you use to compare if a time series of financial returns has more “clusterized volatility” than another?

It is known that the historical series of financial returns are characterized by the so-called volatility clustering. Suppose we approximate the number of two-type clusters, namely the high and low ...
0
votes
1answer
56 views

How to calculate RSI while considering market close and holidays?

I was trying to calculate RSI over hourly OHLC bars for a symbol (AAPL as an example) and got stock, first how should I handle closing hours? (does it make sense to ignore them all together and assume ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views

What is the optimal approach to “backcasting” alternative asset classes (i.e. PE, Hedge Funds, Real Estate)?

I am interested in coming up with better risk calculations for alternative asset classes. As these are illiquid, not a lot of historical data is available. My idea is to use performance of stocks ...
0
votes
1answer
138 views

How to deal with missing value in a time series stock market data?

I have collected data for the period of 2002 to 2018 for following indices Nifty (India), NASDAQ (US), ADX (UAE) and TASI (Saudi Arabia). After collection, I have arranged data in a single sheet with ...