# Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

499 questions
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### What is a good algorithm to predict volatility in metals commodity markets? [closed]

I'm trying to create a script to predict major swings in the price of Aluminium. I am trying to implement a dynamic time warping algorithm for the same. Was wondering if this really is the best ...
567 views

### Online algorithm for calculating EWMA at irregular intervals?

What is a fast online algorithm for calculating the EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average) of an input variable observed at irregular intervals? I know the formula for when sampling at regular ...
733 views

### Choosing the right statistical test for Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation

How do you suggest I do this? I would like to perform a statistical test to check if: the aggregate alpha of all funds equals 0. the aggregate beta of all funds equals 1. Data Sample of 1000 ...
58 views

### which method is the roubust method to estimate the Hurst parameter?

I know there exist lots of method to estimate the Hurst parameter, such as R/S, V/S, GHE, DFA, DMA, Wavelet Spectral Density, Whittle and so on. Can you tell me which one is the best one. Is anyone ...
47 views

### Is my data fittet to be significant?

I am new to this forum and hope for some help. I have a dataset of returns. I cannot tell where these come from, but let's assume they come from a trading algorithm of stock prices. The returns are ...
361 views

### principal component analysis on non stationary data

I read that since stock prices are non-stationary it does not make sense to take their covariance. So I took the log returns of stocks, computed covariance matrix, took the top few eigen vectors that ...
71 views

### VaR estimation when returns are not independent, e.g. ARCH

Time series of returns, $r_t$, in finance are often modeled with some type of conditional heteroskedasticity model, e.g. ARCH(1): $$r_t = \sigma_t z_t$$ $$\sigma_t^2 = a_0 +a_1 r_{t-1}^2$$ where, ...
357 views

### How to know if a time series is trending or mean reverting?

I came across Michael Halls-Moore article on using the Hurst exponent test to determine if a price time-series is mean-reverting, trend-following or closer to a random walk, but doesn't this disregard ...
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### How to find coefficient that will minimize the distance between few times series

I have 3 time series X1, X2, X3. I want to find the coefficient (c1, c2) that will minimize the distance between them as follow: $$MIN\sum\sqrt{(X1-(c1*X2+c2*X3))^2}$$ The constrains are: -1< ...
107 views

### Testing whether a process is a Wiener process [closed]

Ideally I would like links to code implementations (eg. Matlab ) or book/paper references, but I would appreciate suggestions on various methods. Update: I was hoping to attract people who test the ...
87 views

### Information criteria via different GARCH models

I have a question about comparison of different GARCH models via information criteria. I use rugarch package. So, let's have 3 model types: "sGARCH", "eGARCH", "gjrGARCH". I fit all 3 type models for ...
177 views

### Looking at distribution of yearly returns of time series

For S&P, or any time series for that matter. When doing analysis on the distribution of the yearly returns, should I be looking at 1) the daily year over year values, 2) pick some starting point ...
476 views

### How can I compare 30 day implied volatility forecasts with GARCH forecasts?

I'm trying to understand whether there is a good way to compare forecasts for volatility from different sources i.e., implied volatility and GARCH. I'll outline a few statements that I believe and if ...
139 views

### Time Series analysis — Overnight gap

I am doing some time series analysis on some 5 minute bar stock data. If I want to specifically focus on data during trading hours and ignore any pre and post market activity, how would I effectively ...
231 views

### Granger causality with stocks and CDS

I would like to take a closer look at stock prices and CDS spreads of different entities. Because both of them are nonstationary in levels, I use log stock returns and the first difference of the CDS. ...
30 views

### Binary probit model: relevant which outcome is 1?

I'm currently working on predicting bear and bull phases with a dynamic probit model in the form of $y_t=\beta_1X_t+\gamma_1y_{t-1}+\epsilon_t$. So far I've written all my code in matlab and it works ...
91 views

### VAR models when examining relationships between financial markets

When researchers examine lead-lag relationships between credit default swaps and (as an example) stock markets, many use Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR). They want to find out what market "is ...
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579 views

### Quantmod - converting daily data to weekly data (changing time intervals from monday to monday)

I'm trying to convert daily data into weekly data, but with the time interval from monday to monday. First I download historical prices from Yahoo: Tickername<-getSymbols("Tickeername",from="...
104 views

### How to check if relationship between two variable changes over time?

I am working on a commodity-exchange rate model as part of my thesis. My dependent variable is log of first difference of exchange rate of Colombia and my independent variable is log of first ...
170 views

### Most GUI user friendly Time series Econometrics software for modelling and Forecasting GARCH models [closed]

I think the question is simple enough. I have been using Eviews, but it is unable to do recursive one step ahead forecasting directly and requires me to use coding, which I'm not very good at. I need ...
486 views

### Correct procedure for modelling GARCH for forecasting volatility of stock Index returns

I will be using Eviews and am looking to forecast volatility of stock index returns using ARCH/GARCH models. I've generated the logarithmic returns and done the unit root tests. I then proceeded to ...
325 views

### forecast using rugarch in r

After fit the GARCH model, I want to plot the volatility forecast sigma series. I use ugarchforecast as follow: ...
377 views

### What's the exact definition of alpha?

I am quite new to finance and I often hear people say 'I have 2 bps of alpha' or 'I have an alpha of two bps' I don't quite understand what does this mean For me alpha is about predicting power. At ...
34 views

### Data on morocco exchange reserves

i'm trying to do some tests on exchange market pressure of morocco Where can i find data on morocco exchange reserves thanks
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### Combine future contracts into time series [duplicate]

I have future contracts from 10 years back that are combined in one file. There is a gap in the data every month due to rolling of the contracts. How do I remove this gap ad get a smooth time series ...
36 views

### Rotations and Shifts in the f-GARCH News Impact Curve

I re-post my question from the Cross Validated section as requested by another user. I am using the beautiful "rugarch" package and presently have an issue concerning the interpretation of two ...
274 views

### Fractional Brownian motion - probability density function of the increments

I'm starting investigating the properties of the fractionally integrated brownian motion, yet I'm not able to figure out what kind of distribution should an increment of a fBM process follow, ...
235 views

### Forecasting volatility with rugarch and Covariance Matrix

I am trying to do a financial time series forecast in order to build a portfolio. I already have some code running rugarch library and I am not sure if I am forecasting correctly, after that I would ...
513 views

### Where to find historical fundamental data of S&P constituents in Thomson Reuters database?

I need data such as Net Income, ROA, ROE, etc. for companies in S&P 500 Index. I would like to see the values also for other years, e.g., since 2010. However, when I log-in to Thomson Reuters ...
41 views

### Historical Daily/Monthly NAV for Closed End Funds - known duplicate but unanswered previously

Using this query ...
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### Economic variables' influence on stock market volatility: cross section vs. time series

I want to test whether a number of economic variables such as stock market liquidity, earnings per share etc. influence the volatility of S&P500 returns. Should I use a time series regression to ...
159 views

### Hourly Returns Statistical test

I am trying to do an analysis on time zones effect on intraday returns. As a first step, I collected hourly log returns for the past 3 years and bucketed them by hour (so that I have 24 buckets ...
251 views

### Reference request: Quantitative approaches to market abuse detection

have been asked to look at some financial timeseries for potential suspicious activity. These are stocks (my background fixed income hybrids trading and not forensic analyst...) and most of the ...
174 views

### Use of ACD to model transaction durations

I am using a simple ACD (autoregressive conditional duration) model with expoential or Burr distributed residuals and 1 lag, i.e. ACD(1,1). I am modelling durations for transactions data on a 'medium'...
101 views

### How to find relationships between financial data?

Suppose I have a time series of stock growth and one of gdp growth and education over the years. Can I try to explain stock using gdp and education by running an OLS or would I be mistaken from a ...
91 views

### cubic spline in excel with month, quarter and year inputs

Using Excel, how could I calculate a cubic spline curve in monthly granularity when my inputs are a combination of months, quarters and years? The quarter and yearly averages of the spline curve need ...
104 views

### Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’ - Risk-free rate : Trouble using CAPM.beta() function

This is the first time I use the Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’. I have a problem when it comes to use "Rf" (risk-free rate) when using the CAPM.beta. I use EONIA as a proxy for the risk free-rate. ...