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Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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3answers
161 views

Hourly Returns Statistical test

I am trying to do an analysis on time zones effect on intraday returns. As a first step, I collected hourly log returns for the past 3 years and bucketed them by hour (so that I have 24 buckets ...
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2answers
253 views

Reference request: Quantitative approaches to market abuse detection

have been asked to look at some financial timeseries for potential suspicious activity. These are stocks (my background fixed income hybrids trading and not forensic analyst...) and most of the ...
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1answer
205 views

Use of ACD to model transaction durations

I am using a simple ACD (autoregressive conditional duration) model with expoential or Burr distributed residuals and 1 lag, i.e. ACD(1,1). I am modelling durations for transactions data on a 'medium'...
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1answer
103 views

How to find relationships between financial data?

Suppose I have a time series of stock growth and one of gdp growth and education over the years. Can I try to explain stock using gdp and education by running an OLS or would I be mistaken from a ...
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1answer
99 views

cubic spline in excel with month, quarter and year inputs

Using Excel, how could I calculate a cubic spline curve in monthly granularity when my inputs are a combination of months, quarters and years? The quarter and yearly averages of the spline curve need ...
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1answer
107 views

Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’ - Risk-free rate : Trouble using CAPM.beta() function

This is the first time I use the Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’. I have a problem when it comes to use "Rf" (risk-free rate) when using the CAPM.beta. I use EONIA as a proxy for the risk free-rate. ...
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0answers
100 views

Linear Transformation of stock price

Suppose, using market data for a stock, at a tick level, I arrive at a time series, I(t), which is a linear transform of the stock price time series, S(t). I(t) is not leading S(t) and the lagged ...
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1answer
498 views

How to plot time series for stock data using R

We have a dataset which has open,high,low and close values. We have normalized the data and trying to plot normalized open values against Date. The dataset can be found at http://finance.yahoo.com/...
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2answers
84 views

Reliable data sources of 1,2,3,5,10,30,60,320 minute S&P500 O,H,L,C,V data

I am looking for a reliable data source provider for 1 to 320 minute S&P500 data. Or the ES mini contract. Can anyone suggest a good source for this? Thanks! Andrew
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0answers
78 views

Time Series clustering

I have financial time series and PCA scores, that I'm trying to cluster. As PCA scores don't have orientation, I would like to know what clustering method would be suitable for clustering these kind ...
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0answers
774 views

R Help: Daily time series on business days

I have a daily time series in a csv file. With the below command I read the data in a data.frame test <- read.csv("xxxx.csv", header = T, sep=";", dec=",") I ...
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1answer
922 views

Historical beta: Beta estimation for which time horizon?

In practice historical beta is the most used approach for calculating beta. Some one can use i.e. the last 6 month daily returns of stock i and market m to calculcate this. Nevertheless I am ...
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325 views

Why are my GARCH forecasts biased?

I've run an ARMA(1, 1)-GARCH(1, 1) model with normal density on log returns for twelve stocks. I computed the one-step-ahead out of sample forecast for daily volatility on a rolling windows for 500 ...
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0answers
563 views

How to construct a continuous price time series out of futures raw data in Excel?

My object of research is corn futures: It is well known that corn futures expire 5 times per year: March, May, July, September and December. Due to their finite life that is limited by their maturity,...
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2answers
207 views

Log-periodic power law model: is it a continuous or discrete-time process?

Are the log-periodic power law models used to predict financial market crashes continuous or discrete-time processes?
3
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1answer
211 views

How do you decide what time frame you're going to use when testing for cointegration?

I've been fiddling around with different time frames when doing tests for cointegration between two timeseries, and I've realized that the dates that you use for your start/stop of the test will ...
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0answers
517 views

Is there a difference between “regression toward the mean” vs “mean reversion”, in the context of financial time series and cash flow analysis?

I read the Wikipedia articles, and it implied that it was different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean In finance, the term mean reversion has a different meaning. Jeremy ...
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3answers
174 views

ARIMA model coefficients from discontinuous data series

Stock prices are not stationary processes during all week or all day. For example EURGBP has low variability at night in Europe but during working hours is changing much more dynamic because of market ...
2
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3answers
404 views

Mean and standard deviation of price series with Kalman

I like to calculate the mean and standard deviation of a price series, using the Kalman filter. I am somehow stuck with the deviation, or have some problem in understanding, which my research could ...
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0answers
75 views

Using GO GARCH to optimize a yearly-rebalanced portfolio based on daily data

Is it reliable to optimize portfolio weights on a yearly-rebalanced portfolio based on the Generalized Orthogonal GARCH (GO-Garch) covariance, coskewness, and cokurtosis matrices with the rmgarch R-...
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1answer
573 views

How to efficiently get covariance matrices from a rolling window in Matlab?

I'am trying to produce a rolling window to estimate a covariance matrix using a for-loop. I have my returns under the variable returns_sec and I have 260 ...
3
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1answer
3k views

How to find the formula for the half-life of an AR(1) process (using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process)

Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, I want to prove the half life formula for AR(1) is $$\text{HL}=-\log\left(\frac{2}{ \lambda}\right)$$ I have Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process defined as $$dx_t=\theta(...
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1answer
223 views

Calculating HIstorical VaR with short time series

Intuitively, Historical VAR is an approach which assumes that in the past data, we have observed everything that can happen, so we consider the worst case(tail). However, when your equity/instrument ...
2
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3answers
803 views

Cointegration pair trading - how to test a trading rule using Monte Carlo?

I am doing a research exercise where I have two price series $X_t, Y_t$ which I regress against each other and test for cointegration. Once I confirm that they are cointegrated (using CADF or ...
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2answers
109 views

Co integration of diverging time series

I have 2 time-series datasets. I am trying to find co integration between them. Now the thing is they are negatively correlated. So if I want to look at the distance between them, would I be right in ...
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0answers
76 views

Common pre-processing steps for forex data

This is almost certainly going to make me seem like a novice, but googling for answers is very difficult for this sort of thing. My friend asked me to take a look at some forex data recently. My ...
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4answers
170 views

What is the industry standard for annualizing returns over non-contiguous time periods?

Suppose I am invested in the same fund for the first 200 days in 2013, some combination of 150 days in 2014, and the last 100 days in 2015. Further suppose that geometrically linking the daily returns ...
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0answers
71 views

Price return or total return for GARCH models

Is there a problem in modeling total return rather than price return when using GARCH models? My line of thinking is that total return includes dividends, which is only a "pseudo-random variable" in ...
1
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2answers
667 views

How to adjust regression for rolling returns?

I have a predictor variable (x) and dependent variable (y). Both are monthly rolling annualized returns, which naturally induces significant autocorrelation in x and y. They both also fail to be ...
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2answers
1k views

Getting data of sub-sector indexes of an S&P 500 index sector using QuantMod in R

Using the quantmod package in R, one can download the S&P500 index using the following command: ...
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1answer
632 views

Is this a viable method for testing market making strategies?

I found a video game market (steam community market) which allows for trading of in game items between users, most items are <0.25 USD each, and market capitalization appears to be maybe $5-$10 USD ...
39
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5answers
19k views

Building Financial Data Time Series Database from scratch

My company is starting a new initiative aimed at building a financial database from scratch. We would be using it in these ways: Time series analysis of: a company's financial data (ex: IBM's total ...
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2answers
138 views

References for biased forecasts from EGARCH

A few months ago I've read somewhere that although the exponential GARCH model may lead to higher BIC values in comparison to other extensions of the GARCH family (GARCH, GJR-GARCH, TGARCH, ...), ...
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1answer
97 views

Window length for predictive regressions

I am building a trading strategy that predicts the current period returns using historical returns (think e.g. using an estimated OLS model to predict next weeks return based on this weeks return). ...
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1answer
786 views

How to estimate an Engle's asymmetric DCC model in R?

I have a $N x d$ matrix of standardized residuals, and I want to estimate the parameters $\alpha$, $\beta$ and $\gamma$ of the asymmetric version (Cappiello, Engle, Sheppard, 2006) of the usual ...
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0answers
172 views

Example Scalar Model Extended Kalman Filter

I have a simple question. I think not a question is, is a request. This month I have been studying how to understand and implement the Kalman filter algorithm for simple models such as the local level....
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4answers
258 views

Compare two time series with different frequencies

Lets say I have two time series $X_t$ and $Y_{t,q}$. As an examples, lets say $X_t$ is a series that measures year over year changes in the level of output of a good (say number of widgets). So $X_t = ...
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1answer
300 views

Block bootstrap to synthesize asset prices

I have a few basic questions on block bootstrapping on a financial time series ('TS'). Assuming my trade universe consists of 10 stocks, I would like to create a set of synthetic prices for all 10 ...
2
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0answers
255 views

Problems in computing VaR with GARCH-GPD-copula approach

I use a time-varying Gaussian copula (with GARCH-filtered standardized residuals modeled semiparametrically with Gaussian kernel interior and GPD tails, i.e. generalized pareto distributed) to ...
3
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0answers
63 views

False warning messages in R, is it possible?

I'm modeling GARCH-filtered standardized residuals via semiparametric distribution with Gaussian kernel and GPD (generalized pareto distribution) tails with thresholds at 5% and 95%. For some series I'...
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0answers
58 views

How to get daily OHLC (fints) from minutes OHLC (fints) in MatLab?

I have a minutes OHLC time series stored in fints object, how can I get a new fints object which contains daily OHLC? What is the easiest way to do it?
4
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0answers
738 views

'GARCH - extreme value theory - copula' approach to estimate risk measures in R

I'm reading about this approach of using GARCH-EVT-copula methodology to separate univariate and joint estimation and then estimate for example VaR and ES. I wanted to try something similar, but my ...
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0answers
54 views

Account for empirical relationship between signal and market data

I have two monthly time series : one is a 'signal', on which I will base my decision to buy or short-sell, and the second one is the time serie of a given asset's price. I have implemented this ...
2
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2answers
2k views

cumulative return calculation, disagreement

A friend of mine and myself are having an argument on how to correctly determine cumulative return. The dataset has monthly return data and we are trying to determine the 6-month cumulative return. ...
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1answer
511 views

Why is the GARCH intercept supposed to be strictly positive?

Maybe it's a simple question but I don't really understand why it is theoretically required. Let's take the standard GARCH(1,1) $$\sigma^2_{t+1}=\omega+\alpha\epsilon^2_{t}+\beta\sigma^2_{t}$$ In most ...
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0answers
118 views

Estimating time-varying tail dependence for Archimedean copulas

Patton (2006) defines the upper tail dependence coefficient for a time-varying bivariate SJC copula as $$\tau^u_t=\Lambda \left(\omega_u + \beta_u \tau^u_{t-1}+\alpha_u \frac{1}{10}\sum^{10}_{i=1}|u_{...
2
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1answer
211 views

Time series of European sovereign credit ratings by the Big Three?

I would need time series, from 2000 to 2015 (if possible) of sovereign credit ratings by Moody's, S&P and Fitch. Could you suggest me a source or provide me such a dataset? Thank you very much!
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0answers
420 views

Cointegration for forex using ARMA model to forecast the spread

I am working on an automatized quantitative strategy that use cointegration in Forex. I am backtesting this strategy in Python. Please see below the python file: https://drive.google.com/file/d/...
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0answers
161 views

How to write time-varying functions in R? Applied example

Let's say I want to use a Gaussian copula $$C_{R_t}(\eta_1, ..., \eta_n) = N_{R_t}(N^{-1}(\eta_1), ...,N^{-1}(\eta_n))$$ with a time-varying correlation matrix $R_t$. Through DCC we model the ...
4
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1answer
535 views

How to obtain Standardized Residuals from a Time-Series?

I have my estimates for an AR(3). To obtain the residuals I'm supposed to use $$Y_t-\hat\phi_0-\hat\phi_1Y_{t-1}-\hat\phi_2Y_{t-2}-\hat\phi_3Y_{t-3},$$ where the Y's are from the dataset. If I do ...