Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

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338 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...
3
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1answer
166 views

volume-returns cross correlation interpretation

I want to find the relationship between volume and price returns in the S&P500. My first thought was to run a cross correlation in order to find who leads and who lags in the relation. It´s my ...
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1answer
447 views

What is the best data structure/implementation for representing a time series in C#?

I'm looking for a tick by tick high performance container. So far I've been using List where Tick is a simple struct with a DateTime and double field. I'm using Linq for date lookups but it's ...
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1answer
198 views

Accuracy of GARCH& ARCH forecast

I'm learing ARCH&GARCH model. I have four questions that I don't know the answers 1st: ARCH & GARCH are often used to evaluate equities. Does it mean that ARCH and GARCH are fitter for high ...
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1answer
733 views

High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
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1answer
185 views

What are recent important papers on credit portfolio risk modeling?

I'm interested in papers which consider mathematical models of risks of different portfolios of retail credit. This is not my area of research, so I may be misusing some terms. The idea is simple: I ...
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2answers
959 views

How to find the best fitting GARCH model for a portfolio composed of 3 ETFs in R?

I am doing a project for my class Financial Time Series in which I am trying to forecast my portfolio log returns using a GARCH fit. I am having a bit of trouble determining the best way to fit this ...
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2answers
4k views

How to Calculate Confidence Intervals for Moving Averages Given Nonindependence?

I've plotted 30-year moving averages across time for a couple of portfolios, and I was wondering how to calculate a 95% CI for the these moving average data (i.e., across all moving average data ...
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1answer
72 views

Is there such a thing as resonance in economic underliers?

In physics the occurence of resonance is explained and widely understood in its linear form and subject to research in nonlinear resonance. Example for instance are resonant frequencies of objects. ...
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0answers
91 views

Detecting leading stocks using lag correlation

I am working on a project to find leading stocks in a stock market by using lag correlation. Say I want to compare 2 stocks, X and Y, and I have the time series of stock prices. Assume that the ...
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0answers
81 views

Comparison of normalization methods on market returns

I am looking to use a multi-factor model to make target-return predictions. Since the factor-returns come from different scales I need to normalize first. There are different ways to normalize ...
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0answers
161 views

Simulation of a DCC-GARCH

I want to simulate some exchange rates with a DCC GARCH. I know the package rmgarch but I want to code the simulation my self. The following are the main equations ...
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1answer
151 views

Discretizing a Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Model

How does the discrete time stochastic volatility model arise from the continuous time one? Also, forgive me for cross-posting. I have the following continuous time SDE for a stochastic volatility ...
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0answers
96 views

What is the purpose of short rate models?

Just venturing into quantitative finance and studying short rate models (Vasicek, CIR, Hull-White etc.). Wanted to ask a very simple intuitive question. How would a practitioner use these models? I ...
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0answers
34 views

Binary probit model: relevant which outcome is 1?

I'm currently working on predicting bear and bull phases with a dynamic probit model in the form of $y_t=\beta_1X_t+\gamma_1y_{t-1}+\epsilon_t$. So far I've written all my code in matlab and it works ...
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0answers
96 views

VAR models when examining relationships between financial markets

When researchers examine lead-lag relationships between credit default swaps and (as an example) stock markets, many use Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR). They want to find out what market "is ...
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0answers
775 views

'GARCH - extreme value theory - copula' approach to estimate risk measures in R

I'm reading about this approach of using GARCH-EVT-copula methodology to separate univariate and joint estimation and then estimate for example VaR and ES. I wanted to try something similar, but my ...
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0answers
203 views

When to use SV or a GARCH model

So i have been searching for this answer for a question if there is a rule or something that would say when to use GARCH type model or use an stochastic volatility model to predict the volatility of ...
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1answer
402 views

Applying Time Delay Neural Network to financial events

I have an IT background and I would like to use data from a forex calendar like this one to predict prices. The problem is that calendar news impacts can last for days or weeks or even can effect ...
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163 views

State Space models with Short Time Series

My problem is that I have a state space model that I estimate using the Berndt–Hall–Hall–Hausman (BHHH) algorithm. The state space model is relatively simple in that the hidden part follows a pure AR(...
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0answers
173 views

Derivation of variance of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996) Zhou 1996 Any help would be ...
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0answers
664 views

Test for stationarity and make use of non-stationary points in financial market?

I have two questions to ask: What are the best methods to determine stationarity in a financial market (such as stocks) using MATLAB? What methods would you recommend to use in order to change from ...
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0answers
81 views

Is there an appropriate sequence to tests during model diagnosis?

How should one order (sequence) the following tests? Stationarity test Johansen cointegration test Normality/Histogram test Autocorrelation test Heteroskedasticity test Multicollinearity test Or, ...
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0answers
539 views

Oscillatory time-series forecasting

I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? http://sg.myfreepost.com/sgTOTO_analysispower.php?...
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1answer
969 views

a simpler test for normality given skewness, kurtosis and autocorrelation and size of time series

I typically do a JB (Jarque Bera) test and DW (Durbin Watson) tests for check for normality given skewness, kurtosis and autocorrelation of the data. However this requires a CHI distribution table ...
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313 views

What does T statistics of Information Coefficient indicate?

Hi I am looking for a clear explanation of T statistics concept. Especially in quantitative equity portfolio management context, what does T statistics of monthly Information Coefficient for one ...
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1answer
918 views

Does the unconditional variance implied by a GARCH equal the sample variance?

In the MATLAB default settings for GARCH estimation they say "presample conditional variance is the sample average of the squared disturbances of the offset-adjusted response data y". Am I right in ...
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3answers
711 views

Time Series or Regression

I'd like to research the impact of certain events and characteristics on the liquidity of the stocks over time. I've got a sample of 200 stocks and I use several measures of liquidity (Amihud, Bid-Ask ...
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1answer
95 views

Asset pricing model factor need to be excess return?

In John Cochrane's Asset Pricing book and his video lecture, he states that asset pricing factors need to be excess returns, a traded portfolio. Is there a reason for that? I can't find explanation ...
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1answer
134 views

Why does computing correlation between index levels vs. percentage changes yield completely different results?

I am examining the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Industrial Production Index. Computing the correlation between these these variables yield vastly different results if expressed in ...
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3answers
418 views

Mean and standard deviation of price series with Kalman

I like to calculate the mean and standard deviation of a price series, using the Kalman filter. I am somehow stuck with the deviation, or have some problem in understanding, which my research could ...
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2answers
485 views

ARMA-GARCH model, bset model selection and confidence levels calculations

I'm a newbie in GARCH models. I tried to realize ARMA(p, q)-GARCH(u, v) model via fGarch. So, 2 main questions. 1) Can I use BIC/AIC for selection best model for all (p, q)-(u, v) models? So, is it ...
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2answers
3k views

Bloomberg tick data timezone offset

I am using python to access the Bloomberg Desktop API and am running into issues with the timezone conversion for their tick data. The data they deliver is supposed to be UTC but there is something ...
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1answer
118 views

Detecting stochastic volatility

I have a time series extracted from a financial time series (so my series of prices is described by an arithmetic model $X(t)+Y(t)+Z(t)$, my series is $Z(t)$). I'm trying to model $Z(t)$ by a Levy ...
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2answers
320 views

Normalizing SPY ETF time series data with its sector ETFs?

I am looking to compare the returns of a sector rotation strategy between the various SPDR sector ETFs XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, XLU vs. ...
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2answers
385 views

Logistic Regression of tick data

I've been given some data (it's financial tick data) and I want to predict based on some observed variables whether the next move will be up, down or unchanged. So I have been trying to use ...
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1answer
895 views

Garch models and assumption of stationarity ?

I found big inconsistency in the GARCH models and their underlying assumption of stationarity. GARCH models require that data must be stationary, where stationary means both mean and variance are ...
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2answers
533 views

Does unit root stationary imply mean stationary and variance stationary?

Newbie question. I am reading about stationary series and understand that it has many forms: mean stationary variance stationary covariance stationary My question is does unit root stationary imply ...
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1answer
120 views

What do I need to do with my data before fitting the ARIMA model?

I'm fitting a stock price time series data to ARIMA model and I have a question about the assumption. Is it that ARIMA only applies to stationary data? The ACF and PACF of the data (and the logged ...
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1answer
2k views

How does Volatility Pairs Trading work?

I've read some material related to pairs trading for equities and I understand the process of finding non-stationary pairs price series that can be cointegrated to form a stationary series. The basic ...
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1answer
338 views

Testing for stationarity in large sample sizes

I keep struggling with testing 9 samples if they are stationary. Each of these samples is a real valued time series with 714.000 values. If I use the KPSS test with the each compleete sample set, the ...
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4answers
220 views

Data Issue: Observations in Portfolio Construction

Question With 60 data observations, how do I construct a time series analysis properly? How to do Certain Calculations such as covariances on data with Gaps and Inconsistencies? Background of ...
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1answer
505 views

How to plot time series for stock data using R

We have a dataset which has open,high,low and close values. We have normalized the data and trying to plot normalized open values against Date. The dataset can be found at http://finance.yahoo.com/...
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2answers
2k views

cumulative return calculation, disagreement

A friend of mine and myself are having an argument on how to correctly determine cumulative return. The dataset has monthly return data and we are trying to determine the 6-month cumulative return. ...
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1answer
259 views

distribution of AR, MA coefficients estimation in ARMA-GARCH models

could anyone give me an information about distributions of AR and MA coefficients via estimation? So, for example, I have ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model with the same AR(1) and MA(1) parameters ...
2
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1answer
391 views

Strategies to merge bid, offer and trade price time series into a single price time series?

I'm doing intraday analysis on low volume stocks. There are just a few trades every day, but a whole host of bids and offers. In order to reduce the sparsity of the time series data I'd like to ...
2
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1answer
580 views

VEC GARCH (1,1) for 4 time series

I have to estimate a VEC GARCH(1,1) model in R. I already tried rmgarch, fGarch, ccgarch, mgarch, tsDyn. Has somebody estimated a model like that? ...
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2answers
2k views

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test/ Unit Root test on multiple time series dataframe in R

I have a dataset/dataframe in which I have calculated the daily log returns of five thousand companies and these companies are as column as well. I want carry out ADF test on this dataframe. I have ...
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1answer
222 views

Estimating Carma(2,1) parameters (using yuima package)

I am very new to R, and particularly to the yuima package, so I was hoping someone would be able to help me. I have some data (daily prices) that I wish to fit to ...
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1answer
97 views

Define polynomials of an ARMA process

I just started out with financial time series and I'm a bit stuck with ARMA models. I have the following ARMA process: $-4X_t + X_{t-2} = Z_t + 0.2 Z_{t-1}$ Now I am being asked for the polynomials ...