Questions tagged [time-series]

A temporal sequence of events measured at discrete points in time.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
3
votes
1answer
99 views

Investigating a question: “Does commodity price volatility scale with price level?”

I'm trying to answer a simply posed question using a GARCH model: can we expect larger price shocks in a commodity when it's price is higher? (i.e., may we expect larger price shocks at \$100 per ...
2
votes
4answers
229 views

Data Issue: Observations in Portfolio Construction

Question With 60 data observations, how do I construct a time series analysis properly? How to do Certain Calculations such as covariances on data with Gaps and Inconsistencies? Background of ...
1
vote
0answers
118 views

Wavelet transform (the à trous time-based decomposition) in R

I urgently need to know how to apply the 'à trous' time-based decomposition in R [also known as Stationary Wavelet Transform] on a time series as a preprocessing, to use the result in forecasting and ...
5
votes
1answer
547 views

DCC GARCH: specifying ARCH and GARCH parameter matrices in STATA

The command in STATA to estimate the DCC model of two variables is: mgarch dcc ( x1 x2=, noconstant) , arch(1) garch(1) distribution(t) $$ \begin{bmatrix} h_1{...
-1
votes
1answer
190 views

time series for futures roll

I'm trying to build a multi year time series for a 3 month futures contract. How do I handle rolls? On the day of roll, volatility is high and I want to roll over to next contract series in a way that ...
0
votes
1answer
82 views

Two time series similarity with slightly offset timestamps [closed]

Let's say I have two time-series S1 and S2 where S1 looks like this: ...
-1
votes
2answers
76 views

Is my demand prediction too low?

I have a problem right now at work. For certain business segments, some sales target are established each year. These targets are established based on the managers feelings. It's like this: Manager: ...
2
votes
1answer
119 views

Detecting stochastic volatility

I have a time series extracted from a financial time series (so my series of prices is described by an arithmetic model $X(t)+Y(t)+Z(t)$, my series is $Z(t)$). I'm trying to model $Z(t)$ by a Levy ...
1
vote
1answer
506 views

Calculation of dividend yield from index returns

For a research project, I need to find or calculate dividend yield for all the index of major countries in the world (e.g: s&p500,DAX,CAC40 and so on), and I am struggling a bit with it. I cannot ...
0
votes
0answers
56 views

Dealing with misaligned dates for trend-following strategy?

This is a bit of a naive question, but I figured it couldn't hurt to ask. I have time series data that looks like: ...
0
votes
1answer
213 views

Most GUI user friendly Time series Econometrics software for modelling and Forecasting GARCH models [closed]

I think the question is simple enough. I have been using Eviews, but it is unable to do recursive one step ahead forecasting directly and requires me to use coding, which I'm not very good at. I need ...
-1
votes
1answer
387 views

z-score versus log standardisation of stock prices for calculating correlation; which to use (in ML clustering, distance measure)?

I need to compare (get correlation between) different financial instruments (stocks). The problem is that different stocks will have different price scales. I was thinking of using z-score ...
1
vote
0answers
128 views

Questions on the concept of GARCH model [closed]

As we all know, the GARCH model is stated as $\epsilon_t = \sigma_tz_t$ $\sigma_t^2 = w + \sum^q_{i=1}\alpha_i\epsilon_{t-i}^2 + \sum^q_{i=1}\beta_i\sigma_{t-i}^2$ In application, the estimate $\hat{\...
0
votes
0answers
743 views

Quantmod - converting daily data to weekly data (changing time intervals from monday to monday)

I'm trying to convert daily data into weekly data, but with the time interval from monday to monday. First I download historical prices from Yahoo: Tickername<-getSymbols("Tickeername",from="...
4
votes
1answer
109 views

How to check if relationship between two variable changes over time?

I am working on a commodity-exchange rate model as part of my thesis. My dependent variable is log of first difference of exchange rate of Colombia and my independent variable is log of first ...
3
votes
2answers
641 views

Error when trying to estimate a Markov-switching Var model in R

I'm trying to estimate a Markov-switching VAR in R using the command msvar. These are the first 10 entries of my two time series. I have 798. When I try to run this I get an Error message ...
3
votes
1answer
655 views

Correct procedure for modelling GARCH for forecasting volatility of stock Index returns

I will be using Eviews and am looking to forecast volatility of stock index returns using ARCH/GARCH models. I've generated the logarithmic returns and done the unit root tests. I then proceeded to ...
1
vote
0answers
393 views

forecast using rugarch in r

After fit the GARCH model, I want to plot the volatility forecast sigma series. I use ugarchforecast as follow: ...
3
votes
2answers
505 views

What's the exact definition of alpha?

I am quite new to finance and I often hear people say 'I have 2 bps of alpha' or 'I have an alpha of two bps' I don't quite understand what does this mean For me alpha is about predicting power. At ...
3
votes
3answers
8k views

Squared and Absolute Returns

I've always wondered why do one use squared or absolute returns to determine if volatility modeling is required for the return series? We understand that there are various tests for its ...
1
vote
1answer
35 views

Data on morocco exchange reserves

i'm trying to do some tests on exchange market pressure of morocco Where can i find data on morocco exchange reserves thanks
1
vote
0answers
66 views

Combine future contracts into time series [duplicate]

I have future contracts from 10 years back that are combined in one file. There is a gap in the data every month due to rolling of the contracts. How do I remove this gap ad get a smooth time series ...
2
votes
0answers
38 views

Rotations and Shifts in the f-GARCH News Impact Curve

I re-post my question from the Cross Validated section as requested by another user. I am using the beautiful "rugarch" package and presently have an issue concerning the interpretation of two ...
1
vote
2answers
2k views

Lagged dependent variable, yes or no?

I read conflicting opinions about the inclusion of lagged dependent variables in modeling, and I guess it is partly up to the researcher and depending on the scope and goal of the research. I'm ...
1
vote
0answers
341 views

Forecasting volatility with rugarch and Covariance Matrix

I am trying to do a financial time series forecast in order to build a portfolio. I already have some code running rugarch library and I am not sure if I am forecasting correctly, after that I would ...
10
votes
2answers
264 views

Reference request: Quantitative approaches to market abuse detection

have been asked to look at some financial timeseries for potential suspicious activity. These are stocks (my background fixed income hybrids trading and not forensic analyst...) and most of the ...
2
votes
1answer
605 views

VEC GARCH (1,1) for 4 time series

I have to estimate a VEC GARCH(1,1) model in R. I already tried rmgarch, fGarch, ccgarch, mgarch, tsDyn. Has somebody estimated a model like that? ...
11
votes
2answers
17k views

GARCH model and prediction

I have a question about the prediction of volatility and returns of a time series. Basically it is a question about predict in the ...
1
vote
2answers
87 views

Reliable data sources of 1,2,3,5,10,30,60,320 minute S&P500 O,H,L,C,V data

I am looking for a reliable data source provider for 1 to 320 minute S&P500 data. Or the ES mini contract. Can anyone suggest a good source for this? Thanks! Andrew
1
vote
1answer
273 views

Use of ACD to model transaction durations

I am using a simple ACD (autoregressive conditional duration) model with expoential or Burr distributed residuals and 1 lag, i.e. ACD(1,1). I am modelling durations for transactions data on a 'medium'...
1
vote
1answer
111 views

How to find relationships between financial data?

Suppose I have a time series of stock growth and one of gdp growth and education over the years. Can I try to explain stock using gdp and education by running an OLS or would I be mistaken from a ...
0
votes
1answer
115 views

cubic spline in excel with month, quarter and year inputs

Using Excel, how could I calculate a cubic spline curve in monthly granularity when my inputs are a combination of months, quarters and years? The quarter and yearly averages of the spline curve need ...
0
votes
1answer
116 views

Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’ - Risk-free rate : Trouble using CAPM.beta() function

This is the first time I use the Package ‘PerformanceAnalytics’. I have a problem when it comes to use "Rf" (risk-free rate) when using the CAPM.beta. I use EONIA as a proxy for the risk free-rate. ...
1
vote
0answers
108 views

Linear Transformation of stock price

Suppose, using market data for a stock, at a tick level, I arrive at a time series, I(t), which is a linear transform of the stock price time series, S(t). I(t) is not leading S(t) and the lagged ...
2
votes
1answer
525 views

How to plot time series for stock data using R

We have a dataset which has open,high,low and close values. We have normalized the data and trying to plot normalized open values against Date. The dataset can be found at http://finance.yahoo.com/...
28
votes
8answers
25k views

What is the best data structure/implementation for representing a time series?

I was wondering what is best practice for representing elements in a time series, especially with large amounts of data. The focus/context is in a back testing engine and comparing multiple series. ...
0
votes
0answers
82 views

Time Series clustering

I have financial time series and PCA scores, that I'm trying to cluster. As PCA scores don't have orientation, I would like to know what clustering method would be suitable for clustering these kind ...
3
votes
1answer
218 views

How do you decide what time frame you're going to use when testing for cointegration?

I've been fiddling around with different time frames when doing tests for cointegration between two timeseries, and I've realized that the dates that you use for your start/stop of the test will ...
12
votes
4answers
15k views

Are public historical time series available for ratings of sovereign debt?

The nice list of free online data sources What data sources are available online? does not mention any data from ratings agencies. Are historical time series available for sovereign credit ratings (...
0
votes
1answer
662 views

How to efficiently get covariance matrices from a rolling window in Matlab?

I'am trying to produce a rolling window to estimate a covariance matrix using a for-loop. I have my returns under the variable returns_sec and I have 260 ...
1
vote
0answers
912 views

R Help: Daily time series on business days

I have a daily time series in a csv file. With the below command I read the data in a data.frame test <- read.csv("xxxx.csv", header = T, sep=";", dec=",") I ...
3
votes
2answers
4k views

How to Calculate Confidence Intervals for Moving Averages Given Nonindependence?

I've plotted 30-year moving averages across time for a couple of portfolios, and I was wondering how to calculate a 95% CI for the these moving average data (i.e., across all moving average data ...
0
votes
1answer
1k views

Historical beta: Beta estimation for which time horizon?

In practice historical beta is the most used approach for calculating beta. Some one can use i.e. the last 6 month daily returns of stock i and market m to calculcate this. Nevertheless I am ...
7
votes
0answers
367 views

Why are my GARCH forecasts biased?

I've run an ARMA(1, 1)-GARCH(1, 1) model with normal density on log returns for twelve stocks. I computed the one-step-ahead out of sample forecast for daily volatility on a rolling windows for 500 ...
2
votes
0answers
686 views

How to construct a continuous price time series out of futures raw data in Excel?

My object of research is corn futures: It is well known that corn futures expire 5 times per year: March, May, July, September and December. Due to their finite life that is limited by their maturity,...
22
votes
5answers
24k views

Why are GARCH models used to forecast volatility if residuals are often correlated?

The answers to this question on forecast assessment suggest that if the sequence of residuals from the forecast are not properly independent, then the model is missing something and further changes ...
1
vote
2answers
777 views

How to adjust regression for rolling returns?

I have a predictor variable (x) and dependent variable (y). Both are monthly rolling annualized returns, which naturally induces significant autocorrelation in x and y. They both also fail to be ...
3
votes
0answers
211 views

When to use SV or a GARCH model

So i have been searching for this answer for a question if there is a rule or something that would say when to use GARCH type model or use an stochastic volatility model to predict the volatility of ...
1
vote
3answers
202 views

ARIMA model coefficients from discontinuous data series

Stock prices are not stationary processes during all week or all day. For example EURGBP has low variability at night in Europe but during working hours is changing much more dynamic because of market ...