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Questions tagged [treasuries]

The tag has no usage guidance.

3
votes
3answers
114 views

What's the logic behind 3-10 UST yield inversion predicting recession?

Is there causality, behavioral or logical explanation behind this indicator or is it just purely an observation based on correlation? My guess is that there are existing derivatives with clauses that ...
0
votes
1answer
36 views

Question regarding coupons for government bonds

I was looking at government bonds/treasuries and I wondered if my line of thinking is correct: 1) In general, how is the coupon set? I found out that usually they are auctioned for (a bit) less than ...
4
votes
3answers
205 views

Why 10-year versus 2-year spread?

I occasionally see the 10y-2y spread referenced as a recession predictor. See, e.g., https://seekingalpha.com/article/4201787-current-slope-yield-curve-tell-us Why 10y minus 2y? Specifically, why use ...
2
votes
2answers
62 views

Calculating excess returns

I would like to know if I am calculating these excess returns correctly. I have here an R dataframe with weekly 3-month treasury bill rates, and the arithmetic ...
0
votes
1answer
128 views

Why do Treasury Futures settle at maturity with higher yield-to-maturity than the corresponding spot rate? [duplicate]

Absolute beginner on bonds, trying to understand why spot rates seen for US-T don't seem to line up with CME futures for ZT/ZB/etc at their maturity. For instance, ZB-U8 seemed to settle at 140-27 on ...
1
vote
3answers
133 views

YTM of “very-seasoned” bond issues

There is a liquidity premium between on-the-run treasury issues and off-the-run issues with similar characteristics. This is why when building a yield curve, typically on-the-run issues are used to ...
1
vote
1answer
61 views

Why is LIBOR rate smoother than the US treasury rate?

Compare the daily rate graphs of LIBOR and US Treasury bill, the former is a lot smoother than the latter. Is there any reason for this?
1
vote
1answer
53 views

Where can I find data on US bank interest rates or 4-week T-bill rates dating back to 1970s or earlier?

Where can I find data showing 4-week T-bill rates or U.S. savings accounts' interest rates from 1960s to present, or 1970s to present?
1
vote
1answer
57 views

Where can I download 10 year Treasury prices in OHLC format?

I'm looking for treasury prices (not yield) in OHLC format. On websites like this you can see it has intraday data, so we could drive an OHLC from it? But I can't find a website that lets me download ...
5
votes
1answer
190 views

Why is the 1 month OIS rate so stable?

I was just playing around with bills prices data from CRSP. It is well known that short term bills rates tend to be lower than corresponding maturity OIS rates this is often attributed to some ...
0
votes
2answers
83 views

Basic question re: Fed interest rate tightening and rising interest rates

February 2/8/2018 - context in case the question is still around beyond today: the stock market has been falling for almost a couple of weeks in the midst of fears of overheating of the economy (...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Determine the carry of a treasury bond futures contract?

Hi fellow financial market enthusiasts. I'm trying to understand my options as a retail investor. I want to leverage a cash bond portfolio but my broker does not allow that, so I want to use futures ...
1
vote
1answer
456 views

Roll down Treasury curve (Coupon effects)

I'm currently working on roll down calculations for the Treasury curve (3-month roll, 6-month roll, etc..). One of the senior guys (I just started out of college) asked me to adjust for the coupon ...
0
votes
1answer
43 views

US Treasury foreign buying/selling data

Would anyone recommend any Index or data that I can avail to understand the trend in buying/selling of US treasuries by China? I have access to Reuters feed. Thanks, Sumit
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Modified duration of treasury futures tracking CTD?

If I know TYU7 contract's CTD is T 2.500 05/15/2024 with modified duration of 6.37. I know futures DV01 is calculated by taking the CTD's DV01 divided by conversion factor as shown here. What is the ...
0
votes
1answer
104 views

Curve to curve hedging for treasury

Please correct my conceptual understanding if needed, but I'm trying to calculate the mod duration of treasury curve pieces when the curves are DV01 hedged. For example: DV01 of 10 Year Note is 896....
-1
votes
2answers
43 views

Where to find risk report/models for treasury spreads trading?

I trade a lot of treasury curves, so say I have a portfolio of treasury cash and futures products (longs and shorts). How do I find the portfolio DV01 risk and curve risk? I couldn't find anything ...
0
votes
2answers
2k views

how to calculate daily risk free rate using 13 week treasury bill

I want to calculate excess return for AAPL plus the S&P 500. I have computed monthly and daily logarithmic returns for every stock and for the market, I now need to calculate the risk free ...
6
votes
1answer
490 views

Repo Settlement v. Collateral Settlement

I'm a bit confused about repo settlement conventions, and let's say repos on US Treasuries (USTs). USTs settle $T+1$ where $T$ is the trade date. So if today is Wed 3/8/17 and I execute a trade with ...
6
votes
2answers
6k views

Best method for interpolating yield curve? [Multiple questions]

I'm building a spot curve for US Treasuries. My original selection of cash treasury include all the on-the-run bills, notes, bonds from 6 months to 30 years, as well as some selected off-the-run ...
0
votes
1answer
114 views

Textbook for US Treasury Bond / Notes Futures

Is the text The Treasury Bond Basis by Burghardt still the authoritative source on this topic? The most recent edition was published in 2005. I think that, based on the contents and others' ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Where can I find information about historical asset maturities purchased for QE by Fed and ECB?

I'm looking to conduct some research regarding government bond purchases by central banks. I am wondering where I can find the maturities of bonds purchased as well as the quantity online?
0
votes
1answer
263 views

Where can I find historical daily term repo data?

DTCC appears to provide historical o/n repo data for US Treasuries but does not do so for term repo data. If I want to analyze the term repo curve, where would I be able to find historical term repo ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

In what economic scenario do yield curves bull flatten or bear steepen?

Bull steepening and bear flattening have the common belief that in bad news, treasuries catch a bid and short end rallies more because most bad news are short lived. In good news, treasuries sell off ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

How to compute the yield on the Ultra-Bond Treasury Futures

I am trying to compute the yield on the Ultra-Bond Treasury Futures which is roughly 172.2187. Heres the description of the contract: U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining term to maturity of not ...
2
votes
2answers
202 views

Principal components in treasuries: spot vs futures

I'm looking to use first few principal components of the US treasury yields for trading, and have choice of using either the data for treasuries themselves, or for the corresponding futures contracts. ...