Questions tagged [value-at-risk]

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2
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1answer
314 views

Value at Risk for a plain vanilla interest rate swap

Hello I have question regarding the computations of the Value at Risk for a plain vanilla interest rate swap (i.e. same currency and fixed-for-floating). I have a data set consisting of the Swap ...
1
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1answer
142 views

Value-at-Risk and dividend payments

How should dividends be considered when computing Value-at-Risk for a stock portfolio using Historic data. To simplify let's consider a very simple portfolio of one long position on a stock. My VaR ...
1
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1answer
106 views

VaR of long options

I just had a chat with a risk manager who thinks that the daily VaR of a long option with a maturity under three months should be 'Premium of the Option' / 20 (assuming twenty days in a month) ...
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0answers
60 views

How can I find what Loss Given Default to use

I want to come up with the appropriate loss given default for a commodity derivative in my CVA calculation. would anyone know where I can find this information?
1
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1answer
118 views

What is the name of this VaR calculation strategy?

Here's a question on a passage from this paper I'm reading. Here's the quote: Given the vector of portfolio weights $w$, and the estimate of the conditional variance, $\Sigma_{t,k}$, the ...
1
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1answer
130 views

Risk Management methods for Stock portfolio with ~30 stocks

What is ideal Risk Management method/methods s for stock portfolios with 25-30 stocks and around 50.000 USD invested in those stocks. Every stock bought will be kept in the portfolio for 1 to 12 ...
1
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2answers
100 views

Assigning Global VaR to portfolio members

Assuming that I calculate a parametric VaR of a portfolio with 3 assets, and I need to assign the amount each asset (equity) contributes to the VaR. Lets say that: $C$: Is the correlation matrix $w$:...
0
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1answer
243 views

Calculating Value at Risk (VaR) of a Stock position assuming geomtric brownian motion (GBM)

I want to calculate the VaR for a long position (S) in stockprices after one year. Therefore i tried two methods: analytical solution: $VaR = S\cdot p_0\cdot \sigma_d \cdot \Phi^{-1}(1-\alpha)\cdot \...
2
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0answers
51 views

VaR decomposition of non-normal portfolio by g-and-h distribution

According to Doowoo Nam (2013), VaR of non-normal portfolio returns approximated by g-and-h distribution can be decomposed pretty much in the same way as the VaR of a portfolio with normal returns. ...
2
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1answer
331 views

Intuitive explanation for expectiles

I am looking for an intuitive explanation for expectiles. Here is a link to a paper about expectiles: Bellini and Di Bernardino: Risk Management with Expectiles, European Journal of Finance, May ...
3
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1answer
349 views

Can portfolio Value-at-Risk be calculated analytically for multivariate t-distributed returns?

It is widely known that VaR is generally not sub-additive in all but the most restrictive cases (typically when a Gaussian return distribution is assumed, which fails when it matters the most). ...
3
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1answer
158 views

Risk Compensation

I try to understand the different ways to compensate for risk. In the CAPM, when we plot the excess return against the risk, we find that portfolios of interest lie on the efficient frontier (i.e. ...
1
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0answers
72 views

Calculate VaR using the extreme value theory

I am trying to calculate the Value at Risk for different models. But I am now confused for some reason. Could you please help me? I calculate the 1% and 5% VaR (so negative numbers) and I am also ...
0
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1answer
90 views

Calculate standard deviation from the value at risk

I have the following data: VaR VaR% Expected return Am I right to think that I would be able to derive standard deviation from this? Using the formula: VaR%= ER-(zscore*SD), I should be able to ...
1
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1answer
845 views

Ratio between Expected Shortfall and Value at Risk for $t$-distribution

If $X$ is a random variable with $t$-distribution of parameter $\mathcal{v}$, how can I prove that $$ \lim_{\alpha \to 1^{-}} \frac{\mathrm{ES}_{\alpha}(X)}{\mathrm{VaR}_{\alpha}(X)} = \frac{\mathcal{...
0
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1answer
130 views

What's the relationship between $VaR_{\alpha}(X)$ and $VaR_{1-\alpha}(X)$ if the probability distribution function is not symmetric?

If the probability distribution function $f(x)$ is not symmetric, is there any relationship between $VaR_{\alpha}(X)$ and $VaR_{1-\alpha}(X)$? Here, $VaR$ is defined as $$ VaR_{\alpha}(X) := \inf\...
1
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1answer
786 views

VaR : Student-t GARCH

I have a question on the VaR estimation via the student t GARCH model. Under this framework, the one day ahead VaR estimate is calculated by the following formula: $$VaR_{p}=\mu_{t+1}+\sigma_{t+1}\...
2
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1answer
192 views

Questions about VaR and CVaR. Is there any relation between $VaR_{\alpha}(X)$ and $VaR_{\alpha}(-X)$, or $CVaR_{\alpha}(X)$ and $CVaR_{\alpha}(-X)$?

I have some questions when dealing with Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Is there any relationship between $VaR_{\alpha}(X)$ and $VaR_{\alpha}(- X)$, or $CVaR_{\alpha}(X)$ ...
0
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1answer
176 views

VaR Backtesting. High frequency of exceedances

I'm preparing for thesis defense and I've got simple question connected with Value at Risk backtesting. Portfolio VaR was calculated using historical simulation approach (250 days and 500days) and ...
4
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1answer
441 views

Confidence Interval on Monte-Carlo-CVaR

I use the Monte-Carlo Simulation for the computation of VaR and CVaR and wish to compute the 95% Confidence Interval of my result(not the confidence level of VaR). In the case of VaR this is simple ...
0
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1answer
832 views

Backtesting Value at Risk. With kupiec test

I have a certain problem with backtesting calculated earlier Value at Risk. I've got calculated daily VaR with historical simulation method for stocks. I've used two values of alpha 0.05 and 0.1. Now,...
1
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1answer
187 views

testing stressed VaR

How can you compare stressed VaR estimates? What are statistical tests for assessing the quality of stressed VaR estimates? I think the VaR Coverage test for example by Christoffersen (1988) would ...
2
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1answer
308 views

Why do regulators assume a risk-neutral world?

It is clear that when pricing derivatives we do this in the risk-neutral measure for known reasons. In the calculation of the VaR equivalent Volatility (VEV) in the KID-SRRI calculation (see page 9 ...
4
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2answers
3k views

non-subadditivity of VaR

I have been reading up on VaR and get very confused by the subadditivity concept. On wikipedia, it says "VaR is not subadditive: VaR of a combined portfolio can be larger than the sum of the VaRs ...
1
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1answer
121 views

Integrating Credit and Market VaR

For a portfolio of fixed income, is there a framework or model for providing a VaR-type estimate that takes into account not only market risk factors, but also the loss associated with the probability ...
2
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1answer
919 views

Gaussian vs Student Copula applied to finance

I would like to get your opinion on the following topic: I am comparing the behaviour of Gaussian and Student-t Copulas. I employ the follwing procedure: Simulate N=100,000 samples from a Student ...
3
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2answers
233 views

Value at Risk - What if an account has never suffered from a negative return

I want to implement an algorithm that calculates an account's 95% value at risk on a monthly return base. The case I want to describe in this question is rather academic and will probably never happen ...
2
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1answer
140 views

Energy Risk Quant--Any discussion boards for energy related quant topics?

Any discussion boards for energy related quant topics? Like VaR in energy portfolio, and pipeline option pricing.. just want to know where is the best discussion board for such energy specific topics. ...
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2answers
782 views

Is there a recognized alternative to Value at Risk for risk reporting?

In my research, VaR in risk reporting has regularly come under criticism for not capturing tail-risk adequately and for creating a false sense of confidence when taken literally as "the maximum value ...
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1answer
1k views

Question regarding the Category 3 PRIIP MRM calculation

My question is regarding the European Commission regulation on standardizing the information in the key information documents for PRIIPs. In the Annex IV of the regulation, one can find the ...
3
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1answer
488 views

Modeling tail data using Generalized Pareto distribution

I just estimated a ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1)+Threshold order(1) equation for time series of stock prices. Now I'm going to estimate the residuals' marginal ...
3
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2answers
626 views

Expected Shortfall Formula in terms of P

Let $X$ be a continuous random variable and $Q_x$ is the associated quantile function. Show that expected shortfall $ES_X[p]$ at the confidence level $p$ which is defined as $$ES_X[p]=\Bbb E[X|X\leq ...
2
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2answers
779 views

Incremental VaR formula

According to a few resources online the formula of iVaR is : VaR (after adding the new element) - VaR (before) My question is how can this be correct given the lack of subadditivity of VaR? Meaning, ...
2
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1answer
103 views

Can I split my backtesting into multiple consecutive sub-periods?

I'm testing a model to estimate the VaR of a portfolio with different stocks. I used 1500 data to estimate some parameters, and now I have other 1500 data for backtesting purposes (for a total of 3000 ...
2
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1answer
983 views

Overestimating or underestimating risk?

This question might be silly, but I want to be sure of myself. If one has Value-at-Risk forecasts and there are zero VaR breaches (i.e. no return value is smaller than or equal to the VaR value) then ...
2
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0answers
283 views

Problems in computing VaR with GARCH-GPD-copula approach

I use a time-varying Gaussian copula (with GARCH-filtered standardized residuals modeled semiparametrically with Gaussian kernel interior and GPD tails, i.e. generalized pareto distributed) to ...
10
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2answers
6k views

How is the formula for the VEV (VaR-equivalent volatility) in the PRIIP document derived?

The recent regulation (page 32) on PRIIPs requires to compute a VaR-equivalent volatility defined as $$\mbox{VEV}=\frac{\sqrt{3.842-2\ln \mbox{VaR}}-1.96}{\sqrt{T}}$$ Does anyone have an idea how ...
0
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1answer
82 views

Calculating VaR of an Incomplete Distribution

I am currently completing a multiple choice question that has stumped me. An asset has its price and its corresponding probability described as: 100, 0, -50, -70 and -90 with probabilities 50%, 12%,...
1
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1answer
511 views

Issues in estimating VaR with GARCH

I am currently trying to figure out how to estimate the value at risk using the rugarch package in R. I've come to a result, but it seems a bit excessive. Here's my code: ...
4
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1answer
746 views

Backesting VaR on overlapping intervals to year's end

Let us assume that each month of the year (up to November) we calculate a VaR (say 99%) with holding period to the end of the year. Thus the holding period starts with 12 months and goes down to 1 ...
3
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2answers
130 views

Do you know fast to compute, yet plausible risk attribution measures?

I am looking for a fast to compute, yet plausible risk attribution measure based on the risk measure used to compute overall risk. To be more specific, assume that my risk measure is the VaR of a ...
1
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2answers
604 views

Parametric VaR of a portfolio including a swap

I am calcualting the parametric VaR of a portfolio that includes among other things an IRS swap that begins in the exact same day the valuation is done. Therefore, its NPV is 0 and I do not which ...
2
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2answers
62 views

Maximization with risk-neutral investors and VaR constraints

In this paper, the authors make a simple model with: (1) A global bank, who is risk-neutral but has a Value-at-Risk constraint: $$\max_{x_t^B} E_t[x_t^B\prime R_{t+1}]$$ s.t. $$\alpha (Var(x_t^B\...
9
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2answers
727 views

CDS spread scenarios from historical market data

I'm searching for information on the best way to generate scenarios to be used in VaR or ES calculations, for CDS spreads. Given that we need significant historical data in order to achieve a decent ...
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0answers
1k views

How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test (...
3
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3answers
3k views

Step By Step method to calculating VaR using MonteCarlo Simulations

In trying to find VaR for 5 financial assets with prices over a long period of time(2000 days worth of data) how would I do the following: Carry out monte-carlo simulation in order to find a VaR ...
1
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1answer
2k views

Is Value-at-Risk translation invariant?

Let: $X=V_1-V_0R_0$ where $R_0$ is the interest rate. Then, is it so that this risk measure is Translation Invariant as: $\textit{VaR}_{\alpha}(X)=\textit{VaR}_{\alpha}(V_1-V_0R_0)=V_0+\textit{VaR}_{\...
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0answers
290 views

Large deviations theory and extreme value theory

I'll enter into details of both, sooner or later, but for the moment I'm concerned about the differences (and relationships, if any) between these two theories. Can someone give me a brief, but still ...
1
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1answer
1k views

Calculate VaR for a liabilty taking a exponential distribution?

An insurance company faces the liability loss off $L = \begin{cases} 0, & \mbox{with probability } 0.75 \\ Z, & \mbox{with probability } 0.25\end{cases}$ where $Z\sim Exp(\mu)$. I want to ...
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2answers
213 views

Value-at-Risk “hiding risk in the tail” and diversification?

I have a question regarding Value-at-Risk and diversification? When one says that VaR "hides the risk in the tail", does one mean that if we for instance look at VaR at level p=0.05 say, we might get ...