Questions tagged [var]

Value at Risk, a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets.

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Expected Shortfall for ARMA-GARCH Model

I need to find an analytical solution for the 99% confidence expected shortfall (CVaR) for a long position of 100 dollars at time $t$ for an asset with returns modeled by an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model ...
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Payment Gateways' market risk: where does it come from?

Companies like Square and Adyen and Paypal are flourishing. They facilitate payments between people and business in various currencies and provide small loans. However as they are not banks they are ...
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1answer
81 views

Credit VaR Formula

in Chapter 23 of Hull's Options, Futures, and Derivatives he has an example (i.e. example 23.4) which shows how the Credit VaR formula is applied. The answer in the formula is 0.128. I can't seem to ...
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158 views

Analytical portfolio optimization for VaR under multivariate normality

Given a set of assets with returns following a multivariate normal distribution with a known mean vector and a known covariance matrix, $$ r \sim N(\mu,\Sigma), $$ I want to find optimal portfolio ...
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1answer
100 views

Manually calculating and backtesting VaR and CVaR from DCC-GARCH R

I estimated a GARCH fit to the log returns of three series (CAC 40, a french real estate index and french T10 bond yield series) using rugarch. I then manually ...
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176 views

Calculate the historical simulation VaR of the portfolio using Python

Assume that we have 200 stocks in WeiBo (WB), 300 stocks in Netflix (NFLX), 250 stocks in Ford Motor Company (F) and 150 in Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) as of 31 August 2019 in the portfolio. I have ...
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1answer
49 views

Problem in calculating a simple VaR

In Alexander, Gordon J. and Alexandre M. Baptista (2006). Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach. Journal of Monetary Economics 53(7), ...
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190 views

Missing data in historical simulation VaR

A historical simulation approach to VaR estimation relies on the availability of historical data. What do we do when there is no data (say, spot price and implied volatility surface) as, for example, ...
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54 views

How to calculate value at risk in accordance with Basel?

I would greatly appreciate if you could let me know whether Value at Risk should be calculated for net open position (foreign currency assets-foreign currency liabilities) or for foreign currency cash?...
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127 views

understanding Value-at-Risk correclty

The are several types how to calculate the VaR. I am focussing on the method of calculation the VaR in percentage. $VaR=I*z*std*\sqrt{t}$ This gives the VaR in €. I have the z-value, the daily ...
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61 views

Approximation of portfolio VaR (after mapping) when Delta and Gamma both equal zero

As titled, I am having trouble estimating the VaR of a portfolio mapped as a function of a single risk factor $S$, in the form : $$V(S) = S^3 - 30S^2 + 300S + 150$$ with current value $S = 10$. $S$...
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860 views

How to add Risks-Not-In-VaR (RNIV) to VaR under Basel III

I am trying to generate/prove the magnitude of the over-conservativeness of the regulatory VaR (internal models) under Basel III against what a more accurate VaR would be. However, I can't seem to ...
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48 views

How can I manually calculate the VAR of a call and put portfolio?

How would I solve the following question? Im unsure how to estimate the stock price using MCS.
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52 views

A quick and dirty loss distribution and Credit VaR

I need to create a loss distribution for a credit portfolio as the first steps to estimate the portfolio Credit VaR. I have historical monthly account snapshots (payment history) of all accounts ...
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2answers
478 views

1 day VaR vs 10 day VaR

Even while using historical simulation VaR, 1 day VaR is converted into 10 day VaR by multiplying 1 day VaR by Sqrt(10) for regulatory reporting purposes. What are the underlying assumptions for ...
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1answer
172 views

VaR equivalent volatility meaning

I have a hard time with interpreting VeV. I mean - I see its just standard deviation derived from Cornish-Fischer VaR, but I don't really know how to interpret it. The formula for VeV is: ...
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84 views

Compute the VaR from NPV (Net present value)? [closed]

A client is evaluating an investment in Indochina requiring an initial expenditure (period 0) of 10,000, and which then in periods 1 and 2 gives a benefit V1 and V2. Assume that the discount rate to ...
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138 views

Do correlated assets affect the price of a portfolio of derivatives?

I need to compute the value at risk of a given portfolio as an exercise for a class at university but I have trouble understanding how correlated assets affect the price of the portfolio. Could you ...
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1answer
104 views

GJR-GARCH model using garchFit function

I'm trying to use the garchFit function described here in order to define a GJR-GARCH model to estimate volatility and then forecast VaR. I tried using ...
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2answers
94 views

Monte Carlo VaR w/ Multivariate Normal vs. Parametric

In Aladdin's Monte Carlo VaR, the default setting for the joint distribution of factor returns is multivariate normal. Given that normal distributions do not capture the fat tails seen in empirical ...
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45 views

Does it make sense to subtract VaR from spot shocks?

I have a model to compute the Event Risk (in dollars) from a shock to the spot price of an asset. I also have the 10-day VaR PnL for the same assets returns. These two numbers are then aggregated to ...
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721 views

What should the half-life be in EWMA when calculating VaR from EWMA?

If we want to calculate an $x$-day VaR ($x$ is some time period in days) from an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) of vector of returns, what should the half-life in the decay factor in ...
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1answer
112 views

Value-at-Risk for a portfolio model with Gearing

My models: Say I want to construct a portfolio so I maximize my expected return while keeping my risk (measured by Value-at-Risk) lower than my risk target. $$\max \sum x_i \mu_i \\ VaR_{0.05} \leq \...
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117 views

Monte Carlo VAR with differente asset classes

I have found a very useful post regarding the use of Monte Carlo simulaton to obtain portfolio Value at risk, based on Cholesky decomposition, random variates, etc. This post I'm talking about is: Is ...
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283 views

RiskMetrics VAR calculations and conditional distribution of sum of log returns

According to Tsay's book in Chapter 7, for the Risk Metrics model: A nice property of such a special random-walk IGARCH model is that the conditional distribution of a multiperiod return is ...
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93 views

Value at Risk Calculation

In historical simulation VaR, if we have stale data for some of our risk factors, which means daily returns on a particular risk factor is 0 on multiple occasions. Is there any way to solve this other ...
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1answer
80 views

Computing Montecarlo VaR for a single asset

I'm trying to understand the procedure to compute the Value-at-Risk for a single asset by implementing the Montecarlo technique. Here it follows the procedure step-by-step in 5 points: selecting the ...
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1answer
83 views

How long is considered `long-term'?

For a project I am doing I need to simulate the balance sheet of a pension fund. In order to do so I also need to simulate euro inflation. Since my inflation data is non-stationary, I model it using ...
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76 views

Extreme Value Theory for Value-at-Risk: Advantage versus historical simulation?

I started researching this topic and it is well covered in the literature. My understanding is that it uses a historical time series of returns of a given set of stocks and represent such ...
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VaR calculation using excel gives different value than VaR using R at all c values except at c=0.5

This is VaR calculation in excel using variance-covariance method. This is VaR calculation in R. ...
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2answers
151 views

How to prove the following relation of Conditional Value-at-Risk and Value-at-Risk?

How to prove the following relation of Conditional Value-at-Risk $\text{CVaR}_{\alpha}(X)$ and Value-at-Risk $\text{VaR}_{\alpha}(X)$, \begin{equation} \text{CVaR}_{\alpha}(X) = \text{VaR}_{\alpha}(X)+...
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44 views

Parametric VaR assumption question

Why do you have to make a correlation matrix when calculating the parametric value at risk, if one of the assumptions for this method to work is that the assets of the portfolio must be independently ...
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1answer
180 views

VaR for Options portfolio

I'm asked to estimate VaR for Options portfolio. Firstly, I wanna try to estimate VaR for AAPL stock european call option using Historical Simulation but I can't find any Historical Data. I tried ...
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1answer
73 views

Value at Risk for normal r.v. with shock (regimes)

I am struggling to understand how was this simple Value-at-Risk calculated. It's Example 1 in Daníelsson, Jón, et al. "Fat tails, VaR and subadditivity." Journal of econometrics 172.2 (2013): 283-291 (...
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111 views

Value at Risk of a Portfolio

I am currently practicing for my Risk Management exam in July but my lecturer is of no help and my colleagues and I have no idea on how to proceed with this question. The past exam papers have similar ...
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128 views

Calculation VaR on long term period

I'm calculating VaR numbers from historical data for a single instrument (it's plain vanilla, not a derivative) and receive such variables: I could provide necessary data, and formulas but I guess ...
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83 views

Modelling approaches for interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB)

I am having a hard time researching papers that deal with the measurement of market risk in the banking book. The trading book as I see it is similar to asset management and as the name says the ...
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1answer
86 views

Understanding example on VaR

Trying to understand the example below on VaR in Wikipedia. I don't really understand how the 1% VaR is being defined here. Firstly, shouldn't it be 1% Var is 100 since its the amount her looses? And ...
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220 views

Monte Carlo simulation based VaR: daily vs annual parameters

I am given the initial price, annualized return, and volatility of a security. I am trying to calculate annualized VaR using Monte Carlo simulation approach. To do this I will use the following ...
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2answers
167 views

The BISAM fat-tailed volatility model vs EWMA volatility model

Came across the following marketing material where the company called BISAM (FactSet) aka FinAnalytica (?) has developed following fat-tailed volatility model: $$ r_{t} = \mu + \epsilon_{t} $$ $$ \...
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2k views

Difference between Delta-Gamma and Delta-normal method for VaR

I was reading the differences between Delta-Gamma and Delta-normal method for VaR. One of the difference I found is mentioned below, but I can't understand it's importance. Can anybody please explain ...
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1answer
136 views

Risk Management methods for Stock portfolio with ~30 stocks

What is ideal Risk Management method/methods s for stock portfolios with 25-30 stocks and around 50.000 USD invested in those stocks. Every stock bought will be kept in the portfolio for 1 to 12 ...
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2answers
104 views

Assigning Global VaR to portfolio members

Assuming that I calculate a parametric VaR of a portfolio with 3 assets, and I need to assign the amount each asset (equity) contributes to the VaR. Lets say that: $C$: Is the correlation matrix $w$:...
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VaR decomposition of non-normal portfolio by g-and-h distribution

According to Doowoo Nam (2013), VaR of non-normal portfolio returns approximated by g-and-h distribution can be decomposed pretty much in the same way as the VaR of a portfolio with normal returns. ...
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1answer
123 views

Modelling operational risk for Basel pillar 2 (internal model for OpRisk VaR)

I am somewhat familiar with OpRisk for pillar 1. As far as I know OpRisk for pillar 1 will be replaced by standard approaches soon. So what is left is proper modelling in pillar 2. What are best ...
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1answer
1k views

EWMA VaR, code from Quant Risk

I am currently attempting to improve my python and understanding of VaR. I have been using the website Quant Risk: http://www.quantatrisk.com/2015/12/02/student-t-distributed-linear-value-at-risk/. ...
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1answer
248 views

PRIIP Category 3 Curves

Good evening, I've tried searching similar posts, but most are unanswered or in a more advanced step than what I'm trying to achieve. I've managed to do the boostrap method for spot prices ...
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Value at Risk - Long/Short position

I have a simple question on the VaR for a portfolio that consists of a long and short position. Say I have a portfolio consisting of the following positions: long 1000 shares of stock X short 1000 ...
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187 views

Parametric VaR of a portfolio of a stock and an option on that stock

I understand how to calculate the parametric VaR of a stock and an option separately. But I don't understand how one can calculate the VaR of a portfolio of a stock and an option on that stock using ...
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44 views

VaR of future foreign currency income stream

Assume I have a series of future incomes in a single foreign currency. How do I calculate the total VaR for this forex risk using the volatility method? My first thought was that I could simply add ...