Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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VARX DCC GARCH in R for volatility spillover

I have 5 series for which I want to analyze volatility spillover (to and from the series) via VARX DCC GARCH for both dynamic and comtemporaneous effect. Moreover, I would like to analyze seasonal ...
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62 views

Does this volatility-like measure have a name?

So, basically I'm looking at {=SQRT(AVERAGE((R1:R100)^2))}, or in words: the square root of the average of squared daily returns. Is there a nice simple term/name ...
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Decay factor and volatility (2 assets): do you keep simple correlation to calculate vol? or exponentially weighted correlation?

I have calculated exponentially weighted variances (and covariance) for a future and the underlying index. Now that I have exponentially weighted variances for my 2 assets using a lookback period of ...
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Are there any books/articles on how to use options to be long volatility (implied or realized)? [duplicate]

Given the market turmoil of late I have become fixated with this idea of using options to be long volatility (realised and implied). However, I dont know where to start, what to read, who to follow ...
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Connecting the dots: Black Scholes, Volatility and Implied Volatility

I am a first year Management & Finance undergrad preparing for my second year Finance courses, given that term 3 and exams have pretty much been cancelled for all British first years. During that ...
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How to apply decay factor in the volatility calculation for 1 asset?

I read somewhere that the decay factor is (1-lamba)*lamba^t where t is first return, second return, third return, ... I also found this formula which I have difficulty to understand: How do I ...
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Pricing In Real Life vs Theory

When selling/buying vanilla call options, do one price them according to some pricing formula (i.e Black-Scholes)? Or is the only point using pricing formulas to find the implied volatility and then ...
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Volatility Managed 6 Factor Model (Fama French) - Does it make sense?

after weeks of intense research and in spite of the current situation, I decided to ask the following question to some experts (you): I would like to develop/investigate a volatility managed six ...
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Rigorous proof that volatility target strategies actually tend to the target

I'm working on a paper about volatility timing and target strategies, practical implementation included. While writing down the mathematical description of the model I wanted to include a rigorous ...
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Extrapolate Implied Volatility Surface

I have a moneynessratio-tenor volatility surface and want to extrapolate the implied volatility for moneynessratios > 150%. The volatility surface was downloaded for different points in time, so I ...
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Pricing Options and Computing Implied Volatilities using Neural Networks, strange shape of a graph

I am sometimes confused by the expression moneyness. Can anyone tell me what is plot here ? Its from the paper called :Pricing Options and Computing Implied Volatilities using Neural Networks. ...
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why does monte carlo simulation become less accurate as volatility increases? [closed]

I simulated sample paths to approximate the price of a vanilla European call and then plotted a graph comparing this to the value achieved from the Black Scholes. Why do these values diverge as the ...
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How would you equally distribute the risk of each stock in a portfolio?

Suppose you have in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) daily returns of N stocks (IS and OOS dates are the same for each stock). Suppose you want to calculate return captured each day as x * ret. ...
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Valuing Long-Term (5+ year) Cliquet Options

I'm trying to figure out how to value long term equity cliquet options with expirations 5+ years out. Even for SPX cliquets, vol surfaces are from what I can tell non-existent. Where would someone get ...
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Why are quadratic variation and rough paths so important in quantitative finance?

I am new to quant finance - come from a mathematics background. I am starting stochastic calculus and have been particularly interested in some papers pathwise integration and rough calculus in ...
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Relation between volatility and exercise timing of American Options

Hopefully someone can help me with intuition. Suppose that we have a stock whose value evolves per the geometric brownian motion $dX_t=X_t\mu dt+X_t\sigma dW_t$, for $\sigma>0$, $\mu\in\mathbb{R}$ ...
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For any twice differential continuous function C(T, K), does there exist a sigma(t, S) that can reproduce C(T, K)?

In the Dupire's paper, he assumes that there exits a function $\sigma(t,S)$ that can reproduce $C(T, K)$. My question is that: is the assumption true for any twice differential continuous function $C(...
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How to model the different returns of agents with different information information

For a seminar, I would like to graphically represent the returns made by agents of different information standpoints. In other words, say I have a market tuple $(\Omega, \mathbb{F}, P,S)$ where $S$ is ...
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Is Dupire's local volatility model path independent to recover historical option price?

Generally when we implement Dupire's local volatility model, we follow the steps below: Calculate implied volatility from given historical data Fit the implied volatility skew. So we also know the ...
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153 views

Calculating local volatility from option prices?

I'm attempting to calculate local volatility given a set of option prices using $$ \sigma(T,K)=\sqrt{2\frac{\frac{\partial C}{\partial T}+rK\frac{\partial C}{\partial K}}{K^2\frac{\partial^2C}{\...
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how to calculate yearly volatility from weekly obersvations over 179 weeks?

I am working right now at something and I want to get sure that I am not doing any mistakes - maybe you can help me: I collected weekly returns from a stock over 179 weeks and know I want to ...
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What is the difference between standard deviation, volatility and quadratic variation?

What is the difference between standard deviation, volatility and quadratic variation? As I know, volatility is the standard deviation of the log returns, so they are basically the same. (One of ...
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What does “invest in portfolio volatility” mean?

In this paper, Barnea, Amir, Henrik Cronqvist, and Stephan Siegel. "Nature or nurture: What determines investor behavior?." Journal of Financial Economics 98.3 (2010): 583-604. it is mentioned ...
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Vol surface fitting with 5 degrees of freedom

For an options market making operation I need to be able to build a volatility surface, based on only 5 degrees of freedom, like e.g.: MaxPut, MaxCall, Skew, Curve and At The Money Vol. Is there an ...
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Extract the short-run and long-run volatility of any time series with component sGarch (rugarch)

I try to estimate a component sGarch model with the rugarch package in R. My goal is to extract the short-run and long-run volatility components of any time series. I am not interested in the ...
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Why the volatility of log-returns and not the volatility of the absolute level of the underlying is used in the Black-Scholes model?

If I want to price an option with the B-S model, why do I have to use the standard deviation of the log-returns of the underlying for the sigma parameter and not just the standard deviation of the ...
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portfolio volatility over time

When estimating portfolio vol. with: $\sigma = \sqrt{w^T \cdot cov \cdot w}$ How does the sample length of returns affect $\sigma$? Is it possible to exponentially weight something to give more ...
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Volatility Swap Variance swap [closed]

Why do two different products trades as vol swap and var swap. Are these products not inter-convertible? I know Var swap has convexity and vol swap does not have but i don not understand how it helps ...
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How to find the volatility indices corresponding to equity indices?

I have a list of equity indices that I got through Eikon API (with Python). I successfully got their time series but at this point I would need the corresponding implied volatility, which is not ...
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287 views

Why are some currency pairs more volatile than others?

Why for example GBP/JPY is twice volatile as USD/JPY ? ... and many more cases involving other major forex pairs here: full list. thanks in advance!
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Question on Realized Vol vs Implied Vol

I have heard the following argument- barring transaction fees, if my estimation of future realized vol is 30% and 1-month ATM implied vol is 20%, then I could potentially buy a 1-month ATM call/put ...
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109 views

To use daily volatility or annual volatility

From Joshi's Quant Interviews books: The statistics department from our tell you that the stock price has followed a mean reversion process for the last 10 years, with annual volatility 10% and ...
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Robust Sharpe ratio

The denominator of the Sharpe ratio is sample portfolio volatility, $\sigma_p$, which is the square root of portfolio variance based on the quadratic squared loss, L2. Alternatives for the denominator ...
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Historical volatility calculation to price options with the Black-Scholes formula

I'm looking for a reference algorithm for calculating historical volatility to price options. I know there are several volatility calculation models that use the time series of the underlying's ...
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77 views

Are there volatility models dependent on returns?

When I look at the relationship between volatility and price, I see a clear negative correlation as shown in this figure (SPY and VIX prices today looking back 1 year). The common volatility models (...
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How to mathematically calculate the probability of GBM generating difference of less than some value

I have a custom index that follows Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with volatility v. I started this index at 10k with 4 decimal places i.e the starting price of ...
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Greeks, European puts

I'm trying to solve this question but i have a lot of problems with it. European puts with maturity 6 months are written on an asset with current price $S_0=150.$ The annual interest rate is $r=16\%$ ...
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GARCH Model Estimation with Standard Deviation

I want to examine exchange rate volatility on Stock Returns. Please, if I Generate Exchange rate volatility (ER_vol)using standard deviations approach, can I include the (ER_vol) as a regressor in the ...
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how does stochastic volatility models generate smiles?

When calibrating call price with the BS-model, we achieve some parameters and especielly we achieve $\sigma^*$. Now, lets say I will price call options using these parameters. Then we achieve, lets ...
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Portfolio construction with volume based bars

In the book Efficiently Inefficient, Lasse Pedersen interviews Myron Scholes: LHP: Why do spreads tend to widen during some periods of stress? MS: Well, capital becomes more scarce, both physical ...
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Calculating Implied ATM Volatility with Vega

Can we calculate Implied ATM volatility with Vega? Normally, Vega is derived from Volatility, but I wonder the availability of the opposite way.
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Anyone working on rough volatility modelling? Need relevant books to read

Just wondering if there is anyone working in the field of rough volatility? I know the rough volatility modelling is quite new in the field. Can I get some books recommendation to go through?
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Uncovering patterns in price timeseries using linear regression

I have some minute-bar data which my professor suggested I resample to 5 minute bars and then separate it into timeseries per bar period. For example, I get one time series for 12:00, another one for ...
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calibration - negative call price [closed]

Im trying to calibrate a stochastic volatility model to market. I end with an MSE of 2-3 with approximately 500 quotes. Some out of the money options with call-price under 1 dollar ends up being ...
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Extreme AUDJPY FX vols

I'm seeing levels of -12% of market strangle vol at 25 delta for AUDJPY at 20Y onward that is causing havoc with my pricing routines, the 10 delta market strangle is trading around -6% which is again ...
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Estimation of volatility into Black-76 formula

I am trying to estimate the (annualized) volatility that should go into an European Swaption (such as 2y5y). Given we take the black76-formula, where the discounting is the term outside the ...
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Ultra high frequency TSRV

I'd like to verify my approach to calculate high-frequency RV estimator, as introduced in Ait-Sahalia, Myklad, Zhang 2011. After reading the paper a couple of times, it seems to me, that the only ...
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Calibrating Heston model parameters using the Active-set method and Levenberg–Marquardt

Background: We're estimating the parameters of the Heston model from current market data of options. This is to be implemented using the active-set method (see section 16.5 here) and the Levenberg-...
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283 views

Intuitive explanation for the smile in FX

What is the intuitive reason for the smile in FX? For equities this usually down to crash risk.
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Future Volatility Trading

I want to find a way to long volatility of a future time period such as longing (march,april) vol from today. My idea is to short a straddle for march and long one for April for example. Will that ...

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