Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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69 views

On a relative level how do you value single name volatility? [closed]

Let's say I am looking to price AAPL 30 day volatility on a relative level. My first thought would be to take SPY vols and multiply it by AAPL's beta. But this leaves out the volatility caused by the ...
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104 views

Clarifying statement on volatility, stock returns prediction, and beta

I am trying to interpret a statement about volatility and stock returns made during an interview which I really do not understand. The original task was as follows: Given a time series of the ...
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165 views

Derive the price of log contract

I am reading the Neuberger [1999] Log Contract paper and really confused on the log contract. So if the payoff is $\ln(S_T)$, then we can easily solve the price of such derivative: $$f_t^s = e^{-r(T-t)...
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112 views

Ranking volatilty measures

I am creating a SQL query for a model I am developing that uses historical volatility. I am using the below methods to determine historical volatility: close to close zero mean close to close ...
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63 views

LIBOR-in-arrears swap

Let's say we have a situation where all 12-month LIBOR forward rates at 8% per annum with annual compounding. All cap volatilities are 16%. Estimates the difference between the way a sophisticated ...
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79 views

Volatility of American vs European Stock option return

Let's say that I hold an American Call Option (ACO) and an European Call Option (ECO) in my portfolio on the same underlying, with same strike price and same maturity date. Given that I hold both ...
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112 views

Triangular Arbitrage In FX Volatility

If I know the price of $GBPUSD$ and $EURUSD$, I can retrive the $EURGBP$ price simple by $EURGBP = \frac{GBPUSD}{EURUSD}$. Is there something equivalent to FX Volatility? Knowing the $\sigma_{GBPUSD}$,...
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59 views

Calculating average portfolio volatility

I have a question regarding calculating portfolio volatility. In my "problem", there are six portfolios. Five that have a holding length of one year and one that has a holding length of 200 ...
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64 views

Is there any relationship between the straddle range and the trading range?

The short straddle has 2 breakeven points. It’s profit zone is between those breakeven points and I would call it the straddle range. A straddle is sold which has X days to expiration. The underlying’...
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37 views

Unable to link volatility structure to swaption pricing engine

Good morning, I am trying to link the volatility surface to my swaption pricing engine. ...
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52 views

Building multivariate model to predict trading volumes

I am building a multivariate statistical model to forecast the trading volume of the S&P 500 stock based on its previous values and on other covariates. Being new to finance, I am having problems ...
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adjusting treasury futures exposure using micros

I want to decrease my exposure to a 10-year note futures by using 10-year micro futures after volatility-adjusting them. I've calculated that the difference in volatility in the micro has 5.125x the ...
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127 views

No-arbitrage conditions on a caps/floors volatility surface

Suppose that one has a caps/floors volatility surface and wants to check whether this surface admits arbitrage. What is the theoretical and practical way to do it? Lets talk only about caps for ...
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83 views

Can you still sum the weighted up betas to find portfolio up beta, or not?

The portfolio beta in the conventional sense is simply the sum of weighted beta coefficients for each holding in the portfolio. Is it the same for portfolio up and down beta, where I can simply take ...
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75 views

Quantlib HW 1f model calibration not fitting to market normal vol quotes

I am using Quantlib python to calibrate HW 1f model parameters from normal swaption vols quoted in the market (following the code in the cookbook - I fit both the mean-reversion & vol to market ...
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106 views

Approximating Volatility Skew From historic returns? [closed]

I was wondering if someone could help me with something. I've been reading more about equity options, and I'm struggling with skew. Conceptually I understand why it exists, what I'm struggling with is ...
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Durrleman's versus Ledoit & Santa-Clara's proof that short time to maturity limit of ATM IV is instantaneous vol

As far as I know there are at least two (perhaps more) proofs that under certain technical conditions the short time to maturity limit of the ATM implied vol is the instantaneous vol. There is the ...
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16 views

Computing the average deviation range in a mean reverting series

Given a mean reverting time series, what's the appropriate measure to use to compute the range it deviates by before reversion? Assuming normal distribution, taking standard deviations of the actual ...
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43 views

how should i interpret the gjr-garch output where the gamma coefficient comes positives but insignificant?

i run gjrgarch model on russia stock market where the gamma coefficient in gjrgarch(1,1) model output is insignificant but positive. "gamma1 -0.026240 0.033785 -0.77669 0.437340" how ...
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63 views

Significance of annualized volatility over 100% on the normal distribution? [closed]

Assume stock is 50 dollars. From what I understand, an annualized vol of 20% means there is a ~68% chance the stock will be between 40 and 60 a year from now; a ~95% chance it will be between 30 and ...
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110 views

Eurodollar futures volatility

Considering each point is 2500, how can I get the volatility of the jun 24 contract? On tastyworks I'm seeing a 0.7% iv for the contract, how can I translate it to standard deviation? Ex:sp500 15%...
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24 views

Trailing stop (long-only) based on annualized volatilty

I am wondering if there is a rule-of-thumb for setting a trailing stop (fixed percent) if you know the annualized volatity. I calculate volatility from daily close price using the simple returns, $...
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60 views

returns, standard deviation and mean absolute deviation

I'm trying to understand the relationships between return, standard deviation and mean absolute deviation. I saw someone mention: $daily return * 16 \approx annualized volatility$ $weekly return * 7.2 ...
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Where to find retail trading volume data?

I have plans to work on a paper to study a possible correlation between fluctuations (volatility) in the European and American markets with retail trading activity, either dollar and/or ticket volume. ...
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1answer
83 views

is implied volatility derived from the option bid quote or the option ask quote?

I got SPX option prices from three different market data sources. In all of them, I can see bid and ask quotes. However, there is only one implied volatility. Does this implied volatility correspond ...
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295 views

Fitting a volatility smile with pySABR -- Python implementation of SABR model

In order to model some volatility smiles I'm using the python's pySABR package. I ran into a situation when I have two almost identical pieces of code for two different volatility smiles missing the ...
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66 views

Why calibrate vol based on consensus?

I am starting to work on building vol surfaces using implied vols on the short run mixed up with consensus vols ran through a whole bunch of interpolation/calibration/smoothing process. Although I ...
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1answer
143 views

Rogers Satchell Volatility

I am trying to implement Roger Satchell volatility in Go, but my results do not match reality... I have been at this all day, but cannot find my error. The 30 day Rogers Satchell vol is at 8.75%, but ...
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1answer
128 views

Data source for FX options

I have daily quotes for the new york and london fixings of fx options on EURUSD. I can choose between two sources: BGN and CMPN. Apparently these are based on slightly different methods of aggregating ...
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47 views

Volatility basics: what happens to implied volatility of stock in week of earnings and dividend payment?

Question: Imagine it is a Monday. Company A (stock you are following) has an upcoming dividend payment on Wednesday and an earnings announcement on Thursday. Company A stock is currently trading at \$...
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58 views

Infill lower frequency data: Brownian Bridge

Given monthly returns data, I would like to infill those to get daily returns. Roughly estimates imply that annual volatility is about 1.5x of SPY. One option that came up in my initial research was ...
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183 views

Mathematical solution to return decay of daily leveraged products (leveraged ETFs)

Daily leveraged ETFs have an inherent path dependence. An index performing (5%, -5%, 5%) on 3 days has an overall performance of 2.9%. A -1x leveraged ETF would perform -3.1%. At a higher volatility, ...
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81 views

Annualization of discrete returns

There is a well known approach to annualize volatility of log-returns for a given frequency. Let $P(t)$ a price process and define a log return $r_l(t)$ as $$r_l(t) = \ln \left( \frac{P(t)}{P(t-1)} \...
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CMS cap has more vega exposure than CMS floor for same strike

When I priced a 10y expiry single look CMS30 ATMF CAP, I noticed that the vega exposure is higher than that of the same 10y expiry single look CMS30 ATMF FLOOR. Why is that? I have a suspicion that it ...
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Fitting ARIMA + GARCH in R

I'm forecasting Electricity consumption Data. I have data for one year , so for every 15 minutes there is an observation. My data contains seasonality and I don't know how to fit SARIMA + GARCH into R,...
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Does my caplet stripped volatility surface make any sense?

My goal is to build a volatility surface for caps on a 3M index implied from SABR model. I have a set of cap normal volatilities for a range of strikes (4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and ATM) and maturities (1, 2, ...
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60 views

Yield curve steepening/flattening using different duration treasury futures (TUT Spread) and volatility

Yield curve steepening: long 2 contracts 2 year (2 contracts due to contract size), short 1 contract 10 year Vice versa for flattening. If the 2 year note has a expected volatility of 2% per contract (...
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78 views

Spot-Vol covariance and risk reversals

I have been looking into the covariance between log spot returns and log IV returns over a variety of tenors and lookback windows. However I am not sure how these numbers relate back to the outright ...
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53 views

sizing fx futures trades by targeting volatility

If I lever up a JPY/USD futures with a 6% volatility/contract 2x to meet my 12% volatility target, how many contracts should I buy per $100,000 I have in liquidity? How do I size my position based on ...
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Are there any public implementations of realized kernels? (preferably in Python)

looking to implement a realized kernel model to forecast realized variance of around ~140 equities and indices in Python given order book data. I have read "Realised Kernels in Practice: Trades ...
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27 views

Charting Annual Volatility From Start Date In a Line Plot

I'm pretty new to python/data viz and this is my first time asking a question on here but I have a df with monthly price data back to 2016 for 6 different instruments. I just want to be able to ...
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33 views

Reduced volatility in local stochastic volatility model

in Local Stochastic Volatility models I always read or hear "first the stochastic volatility model is calibrated to reduced vols and then the local volatility model corrects it" also I head ...
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59 views

Using converted lognormal volatilities for negative rates in a lognormal Libor Market Model (LMM)

There exist formulas to convert between normal and lognormal interest rate volatilities. In the most simple form the approximation for ATM volatilities would be $\sigma_{LogNorm}=\frac{\sigma_{Norm}}{\...
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223 views

What is Nassim Taleb's Stance on Volatility

Over the years I have read all of Taleb's Incerto. I recall him more or less writing that "stock returns have no second moment". Hence stock volatilities, defined via the standard deviation ...
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180 views

Understanding out-of-sample performance metrics for Realized Volatility

I fitted several models on a realized volatility process and then proceeded to obtain out-of-sample results. I'm struggling to interpret these results apart from to tell model A seems better than ...
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54 views

Rationale for Historical Volatility definition

I think I understand the most common definition for historical volatility (standard deviation of log returns), but it has me puzzled because it conflicts with my intuitive idea of what volatility is. ...
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252 views

Vol, Gamma, Vega -- essentially all the same?

When talking to traders I hear this sentence a lot I am a buyer/seller of X where X = {vol, gamma, vega} Is X basically all the same -- they are just saying -- I think implied volatility is cheap or ...
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Maximum market volatility

I program trading algorithms that create profits from unpredictable market fluctuations. I am looking for markets with the most extreme fluctuations and I need them to fluctuate up and down in a zig-...
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Examining the dependence of the fractional difference parameter in ARFIMA(0,d,0) vs bar size for Realized Volatility

Realized volatility is a long-memory process and so I fitted an ARFIMA(0,d,0) to log(RV15) where RV15 is realized volatility calculated from 15-min bars. I proceeded to examine how changing the bar ...

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