# Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

725 questions
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### Inherent volatility of selling longterm options and buying short term options

A two-month option has an implied vol of 60%, the corresponding 2-year option has an implied vol of 34%. You buy the short terms and sell the long terms. What is the inherent volatility of the total ...
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### Variance swap volatility - ATMF vol, Skew and Curvature

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...
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### Transforming log return volatility into standard return volatility

If I have a forecasted volatility of the log returns of say, 0.03, this is obviously transformed relative to the log I took of the returns. It strikes me that I should raise ...
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### How closely do option prices correspond to black scholes [on hold]

Just wondering how closely real option prices correspond to black scholes. Any non quantitative answer is useless.
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### Volatility swap hedge

What are the hedging methods for volatility swap (rather than variance swap)? What are the possibilities of setting up a static, semi-static or dynamic hedging? I am aware of but have not yet read ...
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### What does Volatility Smile tell? [on hold]

Could you please share your opinions about Volatility Smile? What does it tell us when it gets more convex or when its level changes over time or any other change on it. Any paper/work/blog ...
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### What is 'conditional variance' in a GARCH model?

How can a single observation possess variance (by definition it is 0)? For example, we read notation such as sigma(t) as the conditional variance at time t? Yet GARCH's generate conditional variances ...
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### Is the VIX more similar to a volatility swap or a variance swap?

I am reading the following paragraph on the VIX wikipedia article and I find it confusing: The VIX is calculated as the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30-day term[clarify] ...
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### Break-even volatility for delta hedge portfolio

After simulating practical and theoretical PnL of a delta hedged portfolio on some data from the SPX500 under 0.15 management Vol I want to find the Vol which gives me an accumulated PnL of 0. ...
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### Multivariate Markov Regime switching GARCH

I have a regression with 4 independent variables and a dependent variable. I want to implement a Regime switching GARCH model but have been unable to find a package in R,Python or Matlab. MSGARCH ...
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### Negative theta in Log-linear stochastic volatility model

I was asked to simulate the following geometric Brownian motion to get paths for the SPX stock price. the process follows a Log-Linear stochastic volatility. $dS_t = \mu S_tdt+e^VS_tdW_1$ where ...
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### Are extended SABR models useful for options with non-negative underlying

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2731359 http://janroman.dhis.org/finance/SABR/ZABR%20Andreasen.pdf In the two articles listed above we see several ways to extend the original ...
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### volatility forecast for VaR methods [closed]

I am trying to learn the limitations of VaR Methods. In this sense, What are the drawbacks/limitations of historical simulation method,EWMA and GARCH methods? thanks omer
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### How to determine the risk-neutral measure in a Heston model?

To clarify, I'm quite familiar with the risk-neutral pricing framework, and I know one can efficiently Monte-Carlo a Heston model via the non-central $\chi^2$ distribution approach. But so far we're ...
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### Finding Lead-Lag Relationship [duplicate]

Given two series of data, volatility and returns, is there a way (Excel) of finding which one is the leading factor and lagging factor? Thank you for your help.
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### Derivation of VIX Formula

I've read a lot of derivations about VIX formula. I can say it is -adjusted- fair strike of variance swap. But I can't see how it goes from variance swap rate to VIX formula. In particular I can't see ...
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### Option value with different spot prices [closed]

I found this post online which is plotting different results for option value and greeks depending on spot price. Why would someone want to do calculate the value of the option with different spot ...
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### Mixed local-stochastic volatility model in Quantlib

At a conference the speaker mentioned that it is a standard approach today to use a mix of local and stochastic volatility model in equity, FX and interest rates. Can you please suggest the most ...
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### Threshold to consider the daily change of a bond price unusual?

In the context of compliance and market abuse monitoring, what relative change threshold would you choose to decide if transactions should be looked into? For example, if a bond price had a relative ...
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### What is the formula for Intraday and overnight volatility?

I'm a noob trying to calculate IntraDay and Overnight Volatility. For Intraday volatility we can get the annualization factor with the following: Length (hours, Open to Close): 6.5 Time frames per ...
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### Intuitive description of the Spillover Index by Diebold and Yilmaz

I am struggling to grasp the steps outlined in the 2009 paper by Diebold & Yilmaz, which introduces the framework for a spillover index. The final expression for a spillover index for a two ...
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### Rolling forecast using GARCH model

EDIT This is not a duplicate of my original question linked, since I have since overcome that problem and have posted an answer. Since solving the previous problem, I have run into the problem ...
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### Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH

I am attempting to make a forecast of a stock's volatility some time into the future (say 90 days). It seems that GARCH is a traditionally used model for this. I have implemented this below using ...
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### Proof of approximation formulas for implied volatilities

I am trying to calibrate a local volatility model to observed implied volatility smiles (not surfaces!, just a smile given for fixed maturity). I ran into the following approximation, and thought I ...
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### Estimating an GARCH(1,1) model? Long hand method

I am really trying to invest some time to estimate a GARCH(1,1) method, I know there is many statistical packages that will do this for me (Eviews, MATLAB, R), but I am trying to do this by hand, so ...
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### VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....