# Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

718 questions
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### ATM-implied volatility

I am trying to understand the methodology that researchers used to compute ATM-implied volatility with real data. The problem is giving the discrete sets strike prices of one particular option with ...
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### Why do regulators assume a risk-neutral world?

It is clear that when pricing derivatives we do this in the risk-neutral measure for known reasons. In the calculation of the VaR equivalent Volatility (VEV) in the KID-SRRI calculation (see page 9 ...
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### Can a VaR equivalent Volatility (VEV) be negative?

As from title, can a VaR equivalent Volatility (VEV) as defined by KID/PRIIPS law be negative?
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### How do I estimate the volatiliy of my portfolio with an estimator that requires High, Low, Open, etc

I have obtained the daily returns of my portfolio $R^{port}_t$ using a certain strategy. Now I want to estimate the realized volatility $\sigma^{port}_t$ using the past 60 days. An obvious way to do ...
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### How can I use a more efficient volatility estimator to improve the co-variance matrix?

Using mean-variance, I need to estimate a co-variance matrix $\Sigma$ to obtain the best weights in my portfolio. However, there are other ways to compute the volatility $\sigma$ than historical ...
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### How is VIX different from SPY/SPX IV?

Maybe I should have read the CBOE whitepaper but I never did... Now I cannot find it. I was looking at SPY/SPX just a moment ago and noticed that spot VIX doesn't match with SPY or SPX IV. Why not? ...
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### Distribution of realized volatility for stock prices from a GBM

If you generate random stock price paths according to a GBM with daily increments, what will be the distribution of the realized volatility? Assume that the realized volatility is measured over daily ...
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### Wrong pricing of Asian Option

Issue short: I have values for Asian Options which I'm trying to replicate using a self-build vba calculator. The values I have to hit is from FinCAD and I'm using a discrete arithmetic average rate ...
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### Monte Carlo volatily

I was wondering if we could do a forecast on volatility using monte carlo on an underlying asset. For example EUR/USD : Simulating a lot of possible paths on 1 year then calculate the volatilty for ...
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### Why is there greater demand for OTM and ITM options than for ATM options?

I´m currently writing a project on volatility trading and dynamics. The literature often states higher demand for OTM (out-of-the-money) and ITM (in-the-money) compared to ATM (at-the-money) options ...
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### Black Variance Surface

I came across black variance surface in quantlib code. For options, usually volatility surface is used for pricing. When you will use variance surface for pricing or any advantages over volatility ...
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### Is an autocorrelation of the abs returns just a consequence of the volatility burst?

In Pfaff's "Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Optimization with R" the following stylized facts are stated (among the others, p.26): The volatility of return processes is not constant with ...
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### GARCH mean and volatility spillover R commands needed

I analyzed an MA(1)-GARCH(1,1) model in R, and now I want to test the conditional mean and volatility spillover effect between the two time series (exchange rates) (based on Hamao et al., 1990). ...
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### Estimate Options Delta By Hand [duplicate]

Underlying = 100 K = 90 1 year Put at K is trading 5. What's the approximate delta of the put?
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### Implied Volatility Surface - log forward moneyness

I'm reading this paper by Fengler (2005) and have came across the below snippet. context: Implied volatiltiy surface plot has 3 dimensions IV, Strike, Time to Maturity. Author replaced Strike with ...
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### Detecting stochastic volatility

I have a time series extracted from a financial time series (so my series of prices is described by an arithmetic model $X(t)+Y(t)+Z(t)$, my series is $Z(t)$). I'm trying to model $Z(t)$ by a Levy ...
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### What are the current gold standards for volatility prediction error?

I'm working on volatility forecasting models for equities and currencies. I am using daily data and am interested in producing forecasts for the next n days. To ...
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### Implied volatility in parametric VaR

I'm calculating 1-day parametric VaR estimates for a stock index under the simple assumption that the returns are normally distributed. My question is, what is your opinion of using a volatility index ...
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### 1-year Var calculated from 1 year volatility

I need to calculate Var with 1 year horizon. I think the correct way to do it is to calculate standard deviation of daily log returns, then calculate daily Var and multiply it by sqrt(250). But in ...
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### Gamma of a Lookback Option

From this book, http://docs.finance.free.fr/Options/Exotic_Options_Trading.pdf, it states that The gamma profile of a Max lookback option becomes intuitive when viewing it as a ladder option. ...
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### Why is $dS/S$ an estimate of realized volatility?

For one period, $dS/S$ is an estimate of realized volatility, which we can annualize by dividing with $\sqrt{\Delta t}$. But.... why? How is $dS/S$ an estimate of volatility? Volatility is, to me, ...
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### relationship between volatility and equity premium

I am working on the equity premium. Does anybody know one or two authors who address the relationship between volatility and equity premium? I.e. how does vola influence the equity premium? In ...
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### Will volatility smoothing effects exist for returns driven by geometric brownian motion?

Say I randomly simulate a one-year pathway of 252 prices, where the underlying price model is driven by geometric brownian motion. where $t = (1 / 252)$, $mu = 5$% and annual $st.dev = 10%$%. My ...
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### Spot and Vol Correlation in Idealised Regimes of the Volatility Surface

From http://www.globalvolatilitysummit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Santander-Volatility-Trading-Primer-Part-II.pdf it states that there are the four idealised regimes of volatility surface. 1) ...
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### Modelling option price change in N days

I need to understand how will my option price change if the price of underlying asset changes by, for example, 15% in 30 days. I would like to use BS formula, but in this case I know all parameters ...
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The presence of skew causes a correlation between volatility and spot. This correlation produces a negative shadow delta for all forward starting products (forward starting options have a theoretical ...
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### Hedging equities portfolios with vol products

Quote Hedging with variance is not comparable to puts Due to the lack of convexity of a variance swap hedge, we believe it is best to compare long variance hedges to hedging with futures ...
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### Implied Volatility of a stock?

I know that implied volatility is the result of backing volatility out of any one of the many options pricing calculations. However, I've noticed that on ThinkorSwim and other platforms they also ...
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### Monthly returns annualized vs annual returns [closed]

Lets say that I have a stock with annual returns, $a_i$ for year $i\in \left\{1,...n\right\}$ and monthly returns $m_{i,j}$ for month $j\in \left\{1,...12\right\}$. Lets define monthly returns to be ...
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### Relative Value Trading of American Style Options on Futures, Calcuating hedging ratios?

I am interested in Relative Value Trading of American style options on futures and have not found a whole lot of literature on it. The best resource I have discovered so far is a few pages in Colin ...
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### Unicredit February 2017: would I have Lost 50 Percent of my Money?

Some of the news regarding Unicredit indicate that the stock price was reduced by 50 percent from Friday (3 Feb 2017) to Monday (6 Feb 2017) (e.g.: ...
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### Why is the statement “the volatility of a $T - t$-month prepaid forward on asset X is $\sigma$” the same as “the volatility of asset X is $\sigma$”?

I'm self studying and I'm having trouble with understanding the equivalent formulations of the volatility $\sigma$ of an asset $X$, as in the below problem. In the below the problem (and the first ...
i have exam coming on financial engineering, and need help asap with this thing. Basically there's a European put option ex dividend. We know that the stock price is $S_t = 85$, the exercise price is \$...