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Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

207 questions with no upvoted or accepted answers
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82 views

Is it possible to compute implied returns from volatility?

If we assume that, broadly speaking: Assets in liquid markets are fairly priced to its value Volatility is predictable (volatility clustering, GARCH, etc) Investors are rewarded and earn a return for ...
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40 views

Is $\sigma_{1} = \frac{\sigma_{\tau}}{\sqrt{\tau}}$ suitable for volatility scaling?

It seems to be the de-facto method; and I see how we get it from log-normal assumption. However volatility scaling seems to be way more sensitive to $\tau$ than mean scaling -- as in two ~ 2 times (...
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66 views

GARCH(1,1) one-step ahead volatility forecast biased, higher than Parkinson's HL volatility

I am trying to create one-step ahead forecasts for the S&P500 using a GARCH(1,1) model. I am using the rugarch package in R. As you can see, the forecasted points are consistently higher than the ...
2
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58 views

General assumptions for var swap replication

I've seen claims that the standard static-hedge for a plain vanilla variance swap holds so long as the underlying doesn't jump, but every derivation I have seen begins by assuming the asset follows a ...
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51 views

stochastic volatility and smile

Can we say that the volatility smile contain for sure stochastic volatility information ? If yes why ? Saying that BlackScholes does not explain the smile does not necessary mean there is an ...
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61 views

Vega for long long-term ATM call and short short-term ATM call

You are long a long-term ATM call and short a short-term ATM call. The ratio is adjusted to make the total vega zero. If before expiry of the short-term option, spot is again at the strike price. ...
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53 views

target correlation for portfolio

Given a long / short equity portfolio, I want to have some net long exposure. My portfolio volatility is fixed to a target, so in trying to have a certain beta to the market, the only thing I can ...
2
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61 views

volatility for multiple time series

I have time series data for a total of 4 stocks and want to analyze the volatility of those. Moreover I want to demonstrate that they have the same volatility. As a response variable I would use log ...
2
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20 views

DCCfit speed up formula

I am estimating the covariance matrix by using GARCH DCC model with function dccfit from package rmgarch. My code is something like: library(rugarch) library(rmgarch) ...
2
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240 views

Frequency Arbitrage

We know that the volatility is lower when the sampling period is longer, for example $\sigma_{7days} < \sigma_{1day}$, Then I came across this strategy that I cannot quite understand how to exploit ...
2
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44 views

Looking for material on volatility forecasting with a focus on market/news events

I'm hoping someone can direct me towards any books/papers that approach volatility forecasting from the perspective of market specific events (fed meetings, USDA reports, OPEC announcements etc). From ...
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169 views

Unconditional variance of an E-GARCH model

I am attempting to calculate the unconditional variance of an E-GARCH model: $$\log(h_{t+1}) = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1}\log(h_{t}) + \beta_{2}\left[|\varepsilon_{t} - \lambda| + \gamma(\varepsilon_{t} - \...
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455 views

GARCH Option Pricing Model (Duan 1995)

I am trying to replicate Duan's results from his 1995 Paper, "The GARCH Option Pricing Model". I have written this code in Python myself, and using his parameters I consistently seem to obtain results ...
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349 views

Trading strategies for increased realized volatility

Suppose once every 2-3 weeks I have a way to select a few equities that are likely to exhibit higher realized volatility in the future month (relative to the past month). Historically, the average ...
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483 views

When is implied volatility greater than realized volatility?

Assume it to be known that the volatility of a stock at any point in time is $\sigma(t)$. My question is, if we have a number of options priced using some implied volatilities $\sigma_1, ..., \...
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164 views

Relative Value Trading of American Style Options on Futures, Calcuating hedging ratios?

I am interested in Relative Value Trading of American style options on futures and have not found a whole lot of literature on it. The best resource I have discovered so far is a few pages in Colin ...
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178 views

OHLC Covarianc Estimation

Is there an R package which can estimate a covariance matrix using OHLC (Open/High/Low/Close) share prices for upwards of 40 shares using the Yang & Zhang method using daily data? I google ...
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394 views

How to calibrate volatility surface for Interest Rate Cap&Floor pricing

I'm using Black model to do interest rate Cap & Floor pricing. The volatility is determined by using the bootstrapping methodology. However, afterwards, how should I do the calibration, or ...
2
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100 views

Testing for the presence of a positive or negative gamma effect

I am currently analyzing a statistic that I believe will have the effect of hedgers having a positive or negative gamma position in certain stocks. In the case where I believe hedgers have positive ...
2
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0answers
74 views

robust regions in grid search

I have a strategy f that takes parameters x,y (for x,y taking values in integer ranges). I get two grids (of returns and volatility values) from computing f(xi,yi) for integer ranges x1 <= xi <= ...
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100 views

How to measure if variance is greater at a certain time of day?

I'm not very fluent in the quant vernacular, so perhaps the nature of my question will be better illustrated as a hypothesis. One market has closed and another market elsewhere on Spaceship Earth is ...
2
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1answer
523 views

Instantaneous Volatility Estimator

Suppose a Stock follows an Itô process with instantaneous volatility $\sigma(S(t),t)$. Precisely $$dS(t)=\mu S(t)dt+\sigma(S(t),t)S(t)dW(t)$$ I have a historical data for the values of $S(t)$.How ...
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35 views

Volatility spread of Strangle

It's written in a book by Giles Hewitt : " The bid-offer spread quoted on a Strangle in volatility terms will usually be wider than the ATM spread to the same maturity because strikes away from the ...
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53 views

Portfolio Systematic Risk, Breaking it down into factor % contributions

I have a portfolio (p) of N equities, with let's say weights vector (m) at the start of the calculation period. Each equity has its own set of factors (like corresponding country, industry index, etc.)...
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38 views

FX Smile Curve Extrapolation

How a smooth smile curve is generated from 5 smile points : 10D RR, 25D RR, 10D SM, 25D SM and ATM? What are the commonly used extrapolation and interpolation techniques? I have seen people ...
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0answers
28 views

Realized vol/var log-normal approximation

It is not clear to me what is a better approximation (based on empirical evidence or otherwise), a log-normal approximation for realized volatility or log-normal approximation for realized variance? ...
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1answer
57 views

Local volatility and Stochastic Volatility

Please help me understand similarity and differences between local volatility and Stochastic Volatility both intuitively and mathematically.
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60 views

What is the intuition behind “jumps” causing volatility skew?

Some models use jumps as a way to explain volatility skew. I understand that if jumps exist, then you are "mishedged" as you no longer can continuously hedge. Options have a gamma component and ...
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32 views

What are popular metrics for Option Skew?

What are popular metrics to track skew? Would it be the difference between OTM option and ATM option IV? Would it be a percentage difference in IV? Also, if both are valid, would a % change be ...
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70 views

Can variance change over time?

I'm working on a toy project that involves fantasy basketball, I know this is the quantitative finance stackexchange, but it seemed like the best place to ask this question. My goal is to make ...
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0answers
38 views

How To Calculate The Implied One Day Expected Return For Earnings

I am trying to figure out how to calculate the one day expected return given I have the event volatility. In his book Trading Volatility, Correlation, Term Structure and Skew, Collin Bennet (link) ...
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32 views

relationship between option vol and option payoff

Has anyone thought of the relationship between the option vol and distribution of option payoff? for example, I have 1000 paths of simulated underlying prices, keeping all inputs the same but only ...
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0answers
55 views

Different definitions of volatility (simple question)

I have a basic question on volatility that I wanted some clarification on. In finance books (such as Hull), there's a few different ways volatility is defined. One of them is the standard deviation ...
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27 views

Price moneyness vs spread moneyness for credit index options (CDX HY)

Is spread moneyness equivalent to price moneyness for volatility surfaces of CDX HY? In other words, is the ISDA converter a linear transformation? I have market data that I need to convert to input ...
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39 views

Swaption pricing and strategies

I am looking for resources (books, papers, websites, etc.) that deal with Vanilla and Exotic swaptions from a more advanced and quantitative perspective. I am interested in both the pricing side (e.g. ...
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0answers
68 views

What is the cause of a “broken” volatility surface?

I am currently working on a project for which I need the implied volatility surfaces, to estimate the value of plain-vanilla European options with different strikes (cannot be observed directly in the ...
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0answers
56 views

How to properly hedge a short vol taking into account hedge stop loss?

Suppose a short straddle. In practice, hedging with long/short futures exposes to the risk of hitting a stop loss when market movements are wide. Eventually, it may very well happen that the hedge ...
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1answer
455 views

Understanding the ZABR model (an extension of SABR)

http://janroman.dhis.org/finance/SABR/ZABR%20Andreasen.pdf In this acticle the SABR model is first presented in another form ( see equation 7 in the article ) and then extended to the so called ZABR ...
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1answer
126 views

In-sample volatility measurement

I would like to know what is the most reasonable way to measure volatility in a sample of past observations. Aside from standard deviation, are more complex models like GARCH used for (historical) ...
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67 views

Log Contract payoff function

I can’t get where Dr. Rouah gets payoff function of log contract. Could you please take a look at that? https://frouah.com/finance%20notes/Variance%20Swap.pdf It’s on page 2, section 3. I couldn’t ...
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85 views

Pricing forward start Cliquet option with implied volatility with Dupire

I have the following implied volatility matrix of a stock index downloaded the 15th February 2019, the value of the stock was 3188.44 at the time: ...
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38 views

Proof of no arb condition after shifting SABR’s rho

Does anyone know of any paper or research where they shift SABR’s skew and rebuild the surface? In particular, I would like to prove theoretically whether the no arbitrage condition hold for the ...
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0answers
108 views

Fitting a forecasting S&P500 roll volatilities

I have a time series of S&P500 prices, for which I have calculated log-returns and roll-volatility. My goal is to forecast daily realized volatility and test a straddle strategy based on it (I ...
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0answers
163 views

Why historical volatility is calculated as N-days annualized?

Annualized historical volatility is always calculate with 10-, 20- days time window. I don't quite understand. Compare with annualized historical return, annualized historical return is never ...
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81 views

Break-even volatility for delta hedge portfolio

After simulating practical and theoretical PnL of a delta hedged portfolio on some data from the SPX500 under 0.15 management Vol I want to find the Vol which gives me an accumulated PnL of 0. ...
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40 views

Negative theta in Log-linear stochastic volatility model

I was asked to simulate the following geometric Brownian motion to get paths for the SPX stock price. the process follows a Log-Linear stochastic volatility. $dS_t = \mu S_tdt+e^VS_tdW_1 $ where ...
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221 views

Mixed local-stochastic volatility model in Quantlib

At a conference the speaker mentioned that it is a standard approach today to use a mix of local and stochastic volatility model in equity, FX and interest rates. Can you please suggest the most ...
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0answers
39 views

What are the different indicators to measure historical volatility for stocks on individual basis?

Google search shows there are three indicators to measure volatility: 1. Average True Range 2. Standard Deviation / Variance 3. Bollinger Bands. What are the indicator(s) that you use to identify ...
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65 views

Estimating an GARCH(1,1) model? Long hand method

I am really trying to invest some time to estimate a GARCH(1,1) method, I know there is many statistical packages that will do this for me (Eviews, MATLAB, R), but I am trying to do this by hand, so ...
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162 views

Poor results forecasting stock price volatility using Python's GARCH model

As far as I understand, forecasting stock price volatility should be more achievable than forecasting absolute prices or returns. It seems as though GARCH models are the traditional and most widely ...