# Questions tagged [volatility]

A measure of the variation in price over time. Also a measure of the risk of a financial instrument.

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### Is volatility for the next day forecastable? To any extent?

In a more general way: is there 1) a methodological approach to quantify the correctness of a model that produces a probability distribution for the, say, S&P 500 index return for the next ...
2answers
2k views

### How to use a realized kernel?

I've read that realized kernels are the thing to use for calculating daily volatility from high-frequency data. So I've got minute data, how do I actually use such a kernel? Will it give me minute-ly ...
2answers
4k views

### Garch modelling on Stata

I would like to ask "how to do GARCH modelling on stata". Basically I want to estimate stock market volatility using daily data. I have one variable as return series, $r_t=\ln(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}})$. ...
4answers
776 views

### How to hedge against lack of volatility

Say you have a trading system that works best when markets are most volatile. What would be the best way to hedge against lack of volatility ? For example, 2008, 2009 was highly volatile and it has ...
4answers
7k views

### How to calculate the implied volatility using the binomial options pricing model

I want to calculate IV for american options with dividends. So far I have found algorithms to calculate the option price given a volatility. Please can you point me to paper or implementation (R, ...
2answers
2k views

### Constructing an approximation of the S&P 500 volatility smile with publicly available data

Besides of the VIX there is another vol datum publicly available for the S&P 500: the SKEW. Do you know a procedure with which one can extrapolate other implied vols of the S&P 500 smile with ...
1answer
341 views

### Reference on Electronic volatility trading [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: Looking for a recommendation for a real life volatily trading book. I recently came in contact with a quant desk that traded volatility. The discussion only highlited my lack ...
2answers
531 views

### GARCH modeling - sliding or expanding window?

In practice, when modeling volatility do people tend to use expanding or sliding windows to fit GARCH models? For example see rolling forecast generation vs recursive forecast generation in the ...
3answers
469 views

### How did the SVXY ETF (-1x VIX) survive a 115% jump in VIX?

The SVXY ETF is a "-1x" short exposure to the VIX, rebalanced daily. Very importantly, it is an ETF, and not an ETN. As an ETF, its holdings are fully transparent and posted on the fund sponsor's ...
3answers
2k views

### Variance swap replication and variance vega

Noob here. I've been trying to gain a better understanding of variance swaps and what better way than to replicate it with a portfolio of better understood instruments. I have read the GS 1999 ...
2answers
629 views

### Which volatility to use to price options on futures contract?

I have some questions regarding pricing futures options and I just want to be sure that my thoughts are correct. I am trying to price options on futures for american & european style. In the ...
2answers
1k views

### How to derive appropriate volatility for a binary option (with strike/term) from market data?

I am valuing a binary FX option (european) with a defined strike and term (2Y). I'm using a closed form solution based on Black-Scholes framework. How can I derive the appropriate volatility to use ...
1answer
757 views

### Libor Market Model Calibration

Currently I am doing a research on the plain vanilla multi-curve framework Libor Market Model meaning that no stochastic volatility is involved. I had the idea to calibrate to the swaption market. In ...
1answer
602 views

### How can I compare 30 day implied volatility forecasts with GARCH forecasts?

I'm trying to understand whether there is a good way to compare forecasts for volatility from different sources i.e., implied volatility and GARCH. I'll outline a few statements that I believe and if ...
1answer
4k views

### Historical volatility from close prices (Haug pg 166)

I have implemented a function for calculating historical volatility using close the close method as described by Haug on page 166. When I implemented the formula given by Haug, it resulted in some ...
1answer
412 views

### Realized Vol for 15 min interval using second Data

I would like to calculate realized volatility for a 15 min period. Most of the literature I looked up shows how to construct daily realized volatility using intraday data. These literatures does use ...
1answer
1k views

### Fitting distributions to financial data using volatility model to estimate VaR

I want to fit a distribution to my financial data using a volatility model to estimate the VaR. So in case of a normal distribution, this would be very easy, I assume the returns to follow a normal ...
1answer
147 views

### Should we apply practical constraints on the distribution of monte carlo paths?

to limit interest rate paths to a 'reasonable' range (if we could define reasonable). Now we calibrate log-normal skew and mean reversion monthly to robust basket of atm swaptions and in and out caps....
0answers
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### How to calculate volatility on intraday data?

I have several weeks of minute-by-minute stock data (start and end prices, volume). Everything I've read so far leads me to believe there isn't a standard method for volatility, which is leaving me ...
1answer
484 views

### How is implied volatility derived?

How to compute Implied Volatility Calculation? The above link shows that there multiple ways to calculate implied volatility. My question is that for most of the common data sources like Bloomberg, ...
2answers
565 views

### Transformation to reduce standard deviation without changing median

Consider some negative skew and high kurtosis return time-series $X_t$. I do not know the functional form of the pdf of $X_t$ and have about 150,000 data points. Suppose that I was to create an ...
1answer
308 views

### How can I use a more efficient volatility estimator to improve the co-variance matrix?

Using mean-variance, I need to estimate a co-variance matrix $\Sigma$ to obtain the best weights in my portfolio. However, there are other ways to compute the volatility $\sigma$ than historical ...
1answer
1k views

### Stability of correlations and volatility

I had a discussion recently about the stability of volatilities and correlations. If we take for example stocks and bonds (think of DAX and Bund) then I have seen changing volatilities (something like ...
1answer
2k views

### GARCH volatility modeling, squared returns, and convergence

After reading some more of Volatility Trading, I decided to try to make a simple volatility model using daily log returns of an ETF I follow. It turns out "simple" is sort of relative. Unfortunately, ...
2answers
1k views

### How to calculate optimal standard deviation bands for trading?

I am trading with standard deviation bands (6 bands) on de-trended data. How can I find the most profitable signals with neural network or GA with standard deviation bands? Should I first find the ...
1answer
661 views

### Does Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003) VIX building approach underestimate volatility?

From a paper that shortly addresses an alternative approach to VIX-like index building: To test this approach, I've built a fake book of B&S options with constant volatility equal to $\sigma=20\%$...
3answers
3k views

### How to trade volatility?

I am analyzing the volatility of financial stock returns and let's say I have a pretty good model to forecast tomorrows volatility of the stock returns. So let's say for simplicity reasons I have a ...
1answer
773 views

### What research is available on the performance of convertible bond arbitrage models?

The basic principles of convertible bond arbitrage have been clear at least since Thorp and Kassouf (1967). For those who are not familiar, the arbitrage entails purchasing a convertible bond and ...
0answers
247 views

### implied volatility and strike price

Assume for simplicity that the expiration time of an option is $1$ the initial stock price is $1$ and there is no dividend yield and the risk free return is $0$. How is it possible to show that the ...
0answers
492 views

### Callable bond price sensitivity to Hull-White volatility changes

I'm using classic Hull-White model for short term interest rate dynamic: $$dr(t)=[\theta(t)-\alpha(t)r(t)]dt+\sigma(t)dW(t)$$ (Notation is quite intuitive, anyway I am using the same as Wikipedia ...
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1k views

### Asymmetric Volatility Modeling (Interpretation)

I am currently writing a paper on asymmetric volatility modeling of brent, gold, silver, wheat, soybean and corn from 1986-2012 and divided them into 4 sub-sample periods (i.e. 1986-1991, 1991-1997, ...
2answers
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### GJR-GARCH Model In R

Any idea how to estimate GJR-GARCH models in R? Is there any particular library like fGarch that supports such models?
3answers
3k views

### Does the debt load affect the volatility of equity?

Does the debt load of a company have an impact on the stock price of a company and its volatility? Also, how does the market react to the announcement of a company issuing bonds?
3answers
180 views

### Can increase in volatility reduce the price of a deeply in-the-money European put?

Hull states that option prices increase with an increase in volatility. I think that statement could be false in a specific scenario: when we are considering a deeply in-the-money European put ...
2answers
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### Relationship between Beta and Standard Deviation

I was doing some financial analysis on two firms in the coffee industry. After calculating Beta and Standard Deviation for both firms, I seem to have stumbled on some weird phenomenon. It appears ...
2answers
581 views

### Vol swaps Vol of vol

I an quite unfamiliar with those products and would like to understand why they require a vol of vol model for pricing. The variance swap is replicated (assuming no cash dividends) with a delta hedged ...